2020 Class Advanced Metrics

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Dynasty DeLorean
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:40 pm

Not the most neatly formatted but here are the WR's in the database under 30% dominator with top 3 round draft pedigree. I highlighted the "hits" which I determined is multiple 1k yard seasons.

_Name___Dominator_Draft Pick
Andre Johnson 28.80% 1.03
Mike Williams 27.00% 1.07
Ted Ginn 28.50% 1.09
Santana Moss 24.80% 1.16
Jeremy Maclin 29.50% 1.19
Percy Harvin 21.40% 1.22
Laquon Treadwell 29.00% 1.23
Marquise Brown 26.20% 1.25
Kelvin Benjamin 29.30% 1.28
Cordarrelle Patterson 17.40% 1.29
Justin Hunter 27.20% 2.02
Deebo Samuel 27.20% 2.04
Devin Smith 26.80% 2.05
Curtis Samuel 29.00% 2.08
Eddie Royal 21.70% 2.11
Cody Latimer 27.40% 2.24
Mecole Hardman 18.70% 2.24
Devin Hester 1.10% 2.25
Aaron Dobson 26.10% 2.27
Parris Campbell 23.50% 2.27
Greg Little 10.90% 2.27
D.J. Chark 25.30% 2.29
Randall Cobb 28.20% 2.32
Jalen Hurd 24.00% 3.03
DeVier Posey 25.00% 3.05
T.J. Graham 23.10% 3.06
Chris Conley 29.30% 3.12
Terry McLaurin 17.70% 3.12
Austin Pettis 27.80% 3.14
Marquise Goodwin 13.60% 3.16
Jerrel Jernigan 21.80% 3.19
Brandon Tate 20.00% 3.19
Mike Wallace 29.60% 3.2
Braxton Miller 14.80% 3.22
Sammie Coates 29.50% 3.23
Taylor Price 25.10% 3.26
Andre Caldwell 28.20% 3.34
Brendan Langley 4.00% 3.37


Basically, you better pray Jeudy is a top 20 draft pick :pray:

bjd5211
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:54 pm

Barring an injury or major off-field incident, I don't think there's any need to "pray" for him to go top 20.

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:17 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:40 pm
Not the most neatly formatted but here are the WR's in the database under 30% dominator with top 3 round draft pedigree. I highlighted the "hits" which I determined is multiple 1k yard seasons.

_Name___Dominator_Draft Pick
Andre Johnson 28.80% 1.03
Mike Williams 27.00% 1.07
Ted Ginn 28.50% 1.09
Santana Moss 24.80% 1.16
Jeremy Maclin 29.50% 1.19
Percy Harvin 21.40% 1.22
Laquon Treadwell 29.00% 1.23
Marquise Brown 26.20% 1.25
Kelvin Benjamin 29.30% 1.28
Cordarrelle Patterson 17.40% 1.29
Justin Hunter 27.20% 2.02
Deebo Samuel 27.20% 2.04
Devin Smith 26.80% 2.05
Curtis Samuel 29.00% 2.08
Eddie Royal 21.70% 2.11
Cody Latimer 27.40% 2.24
Mecole Hardman 18.70% 2.24
Devin Hester 1.10% 2.25
Aaron Dobson 26.10% 2.27
Parris Campbell 23.50% 2.27
Greg Little 10.90% 2.27
D.J. Chark 25.30% 2.29
Randall Cobb 28.20% 2.32
Jalen Hurd 24.00% 3.03
DeVier Posey 25.00% 3.05
T.J. Graham 23.10% 3.06
Chris Conley 29.30% 3.12
Terry McLaurin 17.70% 3.12
Austin Pettis 27.80% 3.14
Marquise Goodwin 13.60% 3.16
Jerrel Jernigan 21.80% 3.19
Brandon Tate 20.00% 3.19
Mike Wallace 29.60% 3.2
Braxton Miller 14.80% 3.22
Sammie Coates 29.50% 3.23
Taylor Price 25.10% 3.26
Andre Caldwell 28.20% 3.34
Brendan Langley 4.00% 3.37


Basically, you better pray Jeudy is a top 20 draft pick :pray:
Yeah it depends on how you define hits. If you define it as top 24 PPR WRs that do that feat for multiple years the only one of those players that fits is Andre Johnspn. Andre Johnson’s Career Dominator Rating without injury years taken into account is 30% so even then he still had a good college career.

To say I’ve done a deep dive into this would be an understatement.
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Hottoddies » Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:14 pm

Dominator Ratings of a couple of cherry-picked duds

Ashton Dulin 60.9%
Jordon Matthews 48.3%
Corey Coleman 44.2%
Josh Doctson 38.6%
Breshod Perriman 36.6%

And there are scores of other college WRs that have scored as high or higher that don't even make a NFL team. Are we to assume that they are better than Jerry Jeudy.

Dominator Rating basically tells you a players share of his team's production. No more. No less. It's not some magic predictive number. It's just a box you checkoff. And if a player's DR number seems to be a little low it bears farther investigation. In the context of Alabama's talented WRs it makes sense that Jeudy's numbers would be lower than other standout WRs.

*Edited to change Corey Davis to Corey Coleman. My bad
Last edited by Hottoddies on Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Zacsby » Sat Dec 07, 2019 9:37 pm

No it can not predict success. But it has predicted failure to a reasonable degree. Most exceptions to the "rule" even have easily identifiable circumstances to explain why they buck the trend. Whether it be injuries or transfers or whatever. Alabamas WR situation is pretty much unprecedented as far as i know which is why context and many other factors are still important!
12 Tm SF PPR - QB, RB (2), WR (2), TE, FLX (2) SF
QB - Lamar, Brees, Daniel Jones, Taysom, Stidham
RB - CMC, AJ, Drake, Cohen, AP
WR - Golladay, Boyd, Landry, Sanders, Mecole
TE - Kelce, Hurst, Rudolph, Oliver

12 Tm SF, Tiered PPR (.5RB, 1WR, 1.5TE) Start 9
QB - Watson, Daniel Jones, Tannehill, Stidham
RB - Kamara, Carson, Penny, Michel, Scott
WR - Nuk, Evans, Ridley, M-Will, P-Will, Washington
TE - Kittle, Rudolph

24 Tm 2 Copy PPR - QB, RB (2), WR (2), TE, FLX (3)
QB - Stafford, Jimmy G, Cousins
RB - CEH, Taylor, Hunt, Singletary, Moss, Breida, Gibson, Darwin
WR - Godwin, Golladay, AJB, M-Will, Ruggs, Higgins, Duvernay
TE - Andrews, Hurst, Herndon
21 Picks - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

alewilliam789
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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:34 pm

Hottoddies wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:14 pm
Dominator Ratings of a couple of cherry-picked duds

Ashton Dulin 60.9%
Jordon Matthews 48.3%
Corey Coleman 44.2%
Josh Doctson 38.6%
Breshod Perriman 36.6%

And there are scores of other college WRs that have scored as high or higher that don't even make a NFL team. Are we to assume that they are better than Jerry Jeudy.

Dominator Rating basically tells you a players share of his team's production. No more. No less. It's not some magic predictive number. It's just a box you checkoff. And if a player's DR number seems to be a little low it bears farther investigation. In the context of Alabama's talented WRs it makes sense that Jeudy's numbers would be lower than other standout WRs.

*Edited to change Corey Davis to Corey Coleman. My bad
Yeah that’s if you take Final year DR as the only factor. More things go into it like Breakout Age, Draft Capital, and combine performance. So yes by itself Final year DR isn’t a good indicator, but Juedy’s career Dominator Rating (average DR between all years in college without injury or seasons with few games played) aren’t good either.

He did Breakout young, he’s probably going to perform above average at the combine, and he’ll even get drafted early, but he doesn’t have good market share data to say the least.

Now if someone wants to work on the DR multiplier for WRs in ultra-competitive WR corps to adjust these numbers then totally let’s get it.
Maybe with the multiplier he eeks out with the other Alabama WRs.
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby ebsteelers » Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:54 am

i think its the breakout finder that has a teammate score . that would help with schools like Bama, LSU, Ohio st etc.

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby purplepride28 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:24 am

I seem to remember the best WR in the nfl today Michael Thomas had the same knocks coming out of Ohio st. Not enough production. And low college dominator.
I think he turned out alright.

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:36 am

purplepride28 wrote:
Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:24 am
I seem to remember the best WR in the nfl today Michael Thomas had the same knocks coming out of Ohio st. Not enough production. And low college dominator.
I think he turned out alright.
80th percentile college dominator seems low to you?

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby alewilliam789 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:30 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:36 am
purplepride28 wrote:
Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:24 am
I seem to remember the best WR in the nfl today Michael Thomas had the same knocks coming out of Ohio st. Not enough production. And low college dominator.
I think he turned out alright.
80th percentile college dominator seems low to you?
Tell em brudda :geek:
12 Owner 1 PPR (4th Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 7-6
QB - Watson, Prescott, Carr
WR - Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Josh Reynolds, Justin Watson, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside
RB - Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs
TE - T.J. Hockenson, I Thomas, J. Oliver

Picks:
2020-
1.05, 3.06


12 Owner 1 PPR (3rd Season) 1QB, 2WR, 1RB, 1TE, 1 FLEX, 1K, 1 DEF -- 20 man roster
Record: 6-7
QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
RB: David Johnson, Mixon, Hyde
WR: Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Josh Reynolds, Andy Isabella
TE: Kittle, OJ Howard, Chris Herndon

Picks:
2020-
1st and 3rd

12 Owner 1 PPR (1st Season) 1QB 1-3 RB 1-3 WR 1-2 TE
1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
Record: 7-6
QB: Mahomes, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Guice, Penny, Duke Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR: Landry, Sutton, Marvin Jones, Harry, Crowder, Josh Reynolds
TE: Hooper, Goedert

2020:
2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd Round Picks

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Kmani6 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:59 pm

He probably meant breakout age. He was right about MT's college production being poor, and his breakout age was in the 25th percentile, which is pretty terrible (age 21.5).

The reason I say this is because breakout age (When a WR first achieves 20% + college dominator) goes hand in hand with college dominator. Jerry Jeudy had a really early breakout age, but then couldn't vastly improve his college dominator above the original threshold, simply because he's playing with 3 other very talented WR's, which caps that ceiling.

It makes a lot of sense, and if you watch him play he really is quite special. He has been dominant throughout his entire football career - 3rd overall WR coming out of HS and now most likely 1st out of college.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook
WR: Devante Adams, Mike Evans, OBJ , Keenan Allen, Terry Mclaurin, Auden Tate, C. Samuel, D. Pettis, Zach Pascal, D. Johnson, A. Miller
TE: Travis Kelce,George Kittle, Jonnu Smith

2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05
2021 Picks: 1st, 3rd

Dynasty Team 2:

16 Team, SuperFlex, PPR, .25 PPC

QB: Rodgers, Big Ben, Winston, Trubisky,
RB: Cook, Mixon,Ingram, Murray, Coleman, Hyde, Miller, Duke Johnson
WR: Golladay,A.J. Green, Landry, Shepard, Sanders, Tate, Westbrook, Fitzgerald
TE: Engram, Rudolph, Doyle

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Diti51 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:20 pm

Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents
Team 1: Pray for Mojo
12 team dynasty PPR with TE premiumQB/2RB/2WR/TE/3FLEX/K/D
http://www63.myfantasyleague.com/2017/home/14805#0
QB: Mahomes/Carr/Fitzpatrick
RB: Barkley/Jonathan Taylor/Damien Harris/RArmstead/Gio Bernard
WR: Hopkins/GolladayChark/Christian Kirk/Jeudy/Parris Campbell
TE: HerndonNjoku/McDonald/Knox/
2021: only first rounder

Team 2: Project Mayhem
12 team dynasty PPR with TE premiumQB/2RB/2WR/TE/2FLEX/K/D
http://www64.myfantasyleague.com/2017/home/58823#0
QB: Cousins/Josh Allen
RB: Mixon/miles sanders/JK Dobbins/Jonathan Taylor/Lamical Perine
WR: Evans/Lockett/Anthony Miller/Deebo Samuel/Reagor/Michael Pittman/Shenault/Corey Davis
TE: Austin Hooper/Gesicki/Sternberger/Ian Thomas/Warring
2021: two 2nds, 5th rounder

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby honcho55 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:28 pm

Diti51 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:20 pm
Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents
I would like to politely request more elaboration on point #1.
my main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
14 team
start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT. keep 20 *adding SF and more keepers 2021

QB: Wilson, Watson, Herbert
RB: E Elliot, J Taylor, JK Dobbins, T Coleman, N Bellore
WR: J Smith-Schuster, M Thomas, AJ Brown, A Cooper, C Kirk, A Miller, K Coutee, S Sims
TE. T Kelce, I Thomas, M Gesicki, W Dissly

Futures
2021: 1, 2, 2
2022: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3
2023: 1, 1, 3, 4, 5

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:51 pm

Diti51 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:20 pm
Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents
I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham, Hurts
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor, Dobbins, Henderson, Scott, R. Anderson, Dallas, T.Williams
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, S Miller, Begelton, St. Brown
TE: Engram, Hockenson, Warring, Trautman, Arnold
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 3, 2021 3, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5

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Re: 2020 Class Advanced Metrics

Postby skinfanjon » Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:00 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:51 pm
Diti51 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:20 pm
Couple thoughts. All regarding WRs
1. Ruggs may be better real life football than fantasy football player, which is great for him, but not if drafting him early in your fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. why I am avoiding him. if I am wrong, so be it, but suspect someone will want/pick him higher then me
2. Dominator and breakout age to me helps you AVOID busts, especially when used in conjunction with draft capital
3. Combine above analytics with some scouting of game tape and perfect secret weapon.

Right now just mental masturbation until we see draft slot and landing spots. Nice mental exercise, but still a work in progress. especially since still have some pro days for some, including Dobbins at RB and Tee Higgins and others at WR

Just my two cents
I have new analytics that support #2 can predict hits better than the average NFL hit rate... updated from the last link I sent you back in January. That thread should be updated with the new info... if not I can PM a link to the spreadsheet on googledocs
No, you dont. You definitely dont.


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