Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[Pac_Eddy]

I'm glad that so many are excited about Taylor.

However, it doesn't make sense to me that his 40 run changes people's view on him so much. His game speed hasn't changed. His tape and game stats are the same. For me, landing spot in the NFL warrants a bigger change than any combine number.

This excitement truly is fun though. I love NFL draft and fantasy rookie draft season for this reason.

[FiremanEd]

I agree completely, although the general hype isn't all that unexpected when something like this occurs. From my perspective, JT came in a little faster than I anticipated, but my over/under line was around 4.45, so I already expected him have a very nice size/speed combination. His track background and playing speed should have given others a similar expectation. As such, this time both validates that and gives him an extra little edge given how he exceeded it.

The concerns about JT still remain, if you had them to begin with, but I don't think speed should have been one of those. If anything, perhaps the other guys (such as Dobbins not running or Swift's confirmed size/speed combo) have lowered people comparatively in an already close class, but they shouldn't be that clearly differentiated from where they were IMO. I do think the general consensus overall will have tilted now towards Taylor though, so that could be an opportunity for those who prefer the others or are indifferent. Previously people may have been content at the bottom of a tier (i.e. 1.05), but now may really want to get into a different spot to have their choice, presenting an offseason opportunity given the shift in somewhat established values to date, where JT was in that 1.03-1.05 range.

[Jigga94]

What are people's concerns on JT? And please don't say college workload...

[sugbear65]

DLF forum: Anyone that overreacts to the combine are stupid.

Also DLF forum: OMG did you see that guy's combine??!?! OVERREACT!!!!!!!!

Lol this pretty much nails it for me. If he was your 1.01 already that’s fine. But to jump him up cause he runs real fast? Not like Swift performed poorly either.
Either way this is all kind of splitting hairs anyway isn’t it. He was a consensus top 4 pick and top 2 RB already.
Regardless, I doubt he’s the first NFL rb taken, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s no 1st round RBs this year. It’s a new NFL and old dinosaur coaches like a Gruden are not the norm.

[PTW32]

What are people's concerns on JT? And please don't say college workload...

Can't catch, Ron Dayne wasn't good, college workload.


All of them horseshit

[Tvols]

Now give hope that at 1-03 I have a slight chance at swift

[Kmani6]

People really hating for using additional context provided by the combine to *slightly* change ranks around is mind blowing. By that logic let’s keep Hakeem Butler and Harmon at the top of our boards from last year right? JT came in about 10 pounds more than his expected weight, and at his expected height and then STILL ran a faster time than expected. To move him up from 1.02 to 1.01 is perfectly understandable given the additional context. In fact, the aspects being mentioned like game speed are completely subjective, whereas the combine is not. Also, in general Dobbins, CEH, and Swift all came in undersized compared to what we originally thought.

For context, In the last half decade no RB other than JT and Saquon ran 4.45 or lower at 225+ pounds, and JT killed that by running a 4.44. His weight adjusted speed is ridiculous.

[Kmani6]

I thought swifts 40 in comparison was really impressive too, however. A lot of people were saying he wasn’t going to have good linear speed, but now he’s put that to rest. We already know his lateral explosiveness is great. He’s still my RB 1, but Just because I think he will translate really well. My only concern for JT is fumbling as of now.

[Kmani6]

BIG RED FLAG that no one is mentioning bc of his combine performance, but JT has 18 fumbles, 15 lost in his college career... Add this to his perceived lack of receiving ability and Swift is my 1.1.

Other elite RB prospects college fumble numbers look like this:

2015: Gurley: 2
2016: Zeke: 2
2017: LF, Mixon: 3, 1
2018: Saquon: 0

Jonathan Taylor: FIFTEEN

It is really hard to drastically improve ball security for a RB from the collegiate level to the NFL level because NFL players are so trained to punch the ball out at literally every opportunity they get.

Edit: I didn’t just list those names to drive a narrative those were just the elite RB prospects, which relates because many are trying to put JT in that elite category and I am unwilling to do so. I think if you’re a freak athlete like that it’s okay not show as much in the receiving game because many of these players were such dominant runners they didn’t need to be used in the receiving game. We’ve also seen guys like Zeke and LF catch upwards of 70 balls so I’m not super worried about that. However, combining that flaw with a major fumbling prospect makes me not label JT as elite.

Some other really good NFL RB’s collegiate fumble totals:

CMC 3
Jacobs: 2
Cook: 5 (4 1 season then improved a lot to only 1 his final year).
Kamara: 1
Hunt: 0
Chubb: 5
DHenry: 4

What is also interesting is that JT never improved in this aspect and fumbled on average 5 a year for 3 straight years. That’s extremely high in only 12-13 games per season.

[Pac_Eddy]

People really hating for using additional context provided by the combine to *slightly* change ranks around is mind blowing. By that logic let’s keep Hakeem Butler and Harmon at the top of our boards from last year right? JT came in about 10 pounds more than his expected weight, and at his expected height and then STILL ran a faster time than expected. To move him up from 1.02 to 1.01 is perfectly understandable given the additional context. In fact, the aspects being mentioned like game speed are completely subjective, whereas the combine is not. Also, in general Dobbins, CEH, and Swift all came in undersized compared to what we originally thought.

For context, In the last half decade no RB other than JT and Saquon ran 4.45 or lower at 225+ pounds, and JT killed that by running a 4.44. His weight adjusted speed is ridiculous.

I hear what you're saying.

As to the Butler & Harmon comment, the combine didn't change my very amateur view on them, it was the NFL draft. That was the big red flag. The combine also hurt DK Metcalf as while he has a great 40 for his size, his was bad in agility drills. But when he was still drafted high by Seattle, his value made some recovery in our ranks.

Your last paragraph on Taylor is helpful. That's a solid point.

[PTW32]

BIG RED FLAG that no one is mentioning bc of his combine performance, but JT has 18 fumbles, 15 lost in his college career... Add this to his perceived lack of receiving ability and Swift is my 1.1.

Other elite RB prospects college fumble numbers look like this:

2015: Gurley: 2
2016: Zeke: 2
2017: LF, Mixon: 3, 1
2018: Saquon: 0horse bleep

Jonathan Taylor: FIFTEEN

It is really hard to drastically improve ball security for a RB from the collegiate level to the NFL level because NFL players are so trained to punch the ball out at literally every opportunity they get.

The fumbles certainly arnt ideal and somewhat of a concern but Miles Sanders had 5 fumbles on 220 carries his final college season compared to Taylors 6 fumbles on 320 carries.

[FantasyFreak]

BIG RED FLAG that no one is mentioning bc of his combine performance, but JT has 18 fumbles, 15 lost in his college career... Add this to his perceived lack of receiving ability and Swift is my 1.1.

Other elite RB prospects college fumble numbers look like this:

2015: Gurley: 2
2016: Zeke: 2
2017: LF, Mixon: 3, 1
2018: Saquon: 0

Jonathan Taylor: FIFTEEN

It is really hard to drastically improve ball security for a RB from the collegiate level to the NFL level because NFL players are so trained to punch the ball out at literally every opportunity they get.

Do you have statistics to back that up? Adrian Peterson had 20 fumbles his first 3 years in the league, and 28 in the last 12.

Taylor's fumble rate is 1 fumble ever 53.7 touches

Miles Sanders, and Dynasty Darling, was 1 every 30.8 touches

Sony michel once every 54.6

Since entering the NFL, Michel has fumbled 3 times on 456 touches (1 fumble every 152 touches)

Sanders had 2 fumbles on 229 touches (1 fumble every 114.5 touches)


BTW, you also mentioned Taylor ran a 4.44. He ran 4.39.

[Jigga94]

You can fix ball security... You can't fix 5'7 and 4.6 speed

[jenkins.math]

I said this in another thread; prospects that have been on the radar for a few years always get knocked down this time of year. They get overanalyzed and I honestly think people just get bored with those prospects and try and find the new hotness.

Taylor has been on the radar for 3 years now. Old news. Let's talk about Zach Moss instead. This literally happens every single year.

As much as we preach the long game in dynasty there are just as many hot takes and redraft thinking in rankings than anything else. Same idea with combine. If you had JT at 5 in your RB rankings and suddenly are moving him to 1 or 2, I would say you blew it twice. First in your initial evaluation and secondly in you getting overly excited about the combine.

To me it's been Swift/Taylor at 1 and they are so close that ill probably rank the one that gets drafted higher at 1.

[Kmani6]

BIG RED FLAG that no one is mentioning bc of his combine performance, but JT has 18 fumbles, 15 lost in his college career... Add this to his perceived lack of receiving ability and Swift is my 1.1.

Other elite RB prospects college fumble numbers look like this:

2015: Gurley: 2
2016: Zeke: 2
2017: LF, Mixon: 3, 1
2018: Saquon: 0

Jonathan Taylor: FIFTEEN

It is really hard to drastically improve ball security for a RB from the collegiate level to the NFL level because NFL players are so trained to punch the ball out at literally every opportunity they get.

Do you have statistics to back that up? Adrian Peterson had 20 fumbles his first 3 years in the league, and 28 in the last 12.

Taylor's fumble rate is 1 fumble ever 53.7 touches

Miles Sanders, and Dynasty Darling, was 1 every 30.8 touches

Sony michel once every 54.6

Since entering the NFL, Michel has fumbled 3 times on 456 touches (1 fumble every 152 touches)

Sanders had 2 fumbles on 229 touches (1 fumble every 114.5 touches)


BTW, you also mentioned Taylor ran a 4.44. He ran 4.39.

Let’s try not to compare players improvement to Adrian Peterson one of the best RB’s to ever exist it doesn’t bode well for an argument.

I am not sure exactly where the statistics are, but I adopted this opinion only after seeing someone’s analysis on it. I’m at the DMV so maybe I’ll find it later.

The premise of the argument was not that the rate of college fumbles will be comparable to the NFL, as in your examples. This is impossible because obviously we know that if in the NFL RB’s fumble that badly they simply wouldn’t play anymore. The base of the argument was something more like if you had ball security problems in college it would remain throughout your NFL career.

Honestly we really can’t apply that much prior knowledge anyways. JT’s fumble totals are ridiculously high and not comparable to any other RB prospect as of late.

Also thanks for catching the typo, I meant 4.39 and that’s why I said he killed the 4.45 threshold. I was waiting in the cold probably mistyped.