The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

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jkid2
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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby jkid2 » Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:21 am

We've had some discussion on this and we're struggling with how to quantify the differential in value based on league size alone.

How is the 15th overall pick different in value in a 10 team league than it is in a 12 team league? How do you quantify that difference in a non-abstract, meaningful manner? And ultimately, is there really an actual difference in the value of that pick?

Thoughts on this are welcomed.

Thanks
dlf_kenm wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:01 pm
Thanks for the suggestion jkid - I'll see what we can do.
Is there any updated on different pick values for different league sizes? I figure it's a decently simple fix based on average pick value right?
10 Team PPR, Roster: 26 Players + 4 TAXI + 2 IR, Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)

QB: Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, Tom Brady
RB: Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette, Sony Michel, Phillip Lindsay, Tarik Cohen, Travis Homer, Rex Burkhead,
Peyton Barber, Dion Lewis, Jalen Richard, Patrick Laird, Dare Ogunbowale, Isaiah Crowell (IR)
WR: Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Evans (IR), Odell Beckham, Michael Gallup, AJ Green, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Cole Beasley, Albert Wilson
TE: Hunter Henry, Noah Fant, Tyler Higbee, Rob Gronkowski

2020 Draft Picks: 3.07, 4.01, 4.06, 4.10
2021 Draft Picks: 2X 2nd, 9X 3rd, 8X 4th
2022 Draft Picks: 2X 1st, 3X 3rd, 5X 4th

dlf_mikem
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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby dlf_mikem » Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:05 am

I actually thought we did adjust for that, so, for example, the value of 1.11 (11th) in a 12-team league = value of 2.01 (11th) in a 10-team league, but that is not readily apparent right now because the current season picks are not available. Do you think the values of those should be different? I would have thought the same.

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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby jkid2 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:09 am

dlf_mikem wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:05 am
I actually thought we did adjust for that, so, for example, the value of 1.11 (11th) in a 12-team league = value of 2.01 (11th) in a 10-team league, but that is not readily apparent right now because the current season picks are not available. Do you think the values of those should be different? I would have thought the same.
I meant if you put in the value for a random 2nd, isn't a random 2nd worth a lot more in a 10 team league than it is in a 16 team league? The value range in a 10 team league is from 11-20 overall but in a 16 team league, it's 17-32 overall.
10 Team PPR, Roster: 26 Players + 4 TAXI + 2 IR, Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)

QB: Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, Tom Brady
RB: Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette, Sony Michel, Phillip Lindsay, Tarik Cohen, Travis Homer, Rex Burkhead,
Peyton Barber, Dion Lewis, Jalen Richard, Patrick Laird, Dare Ogunbowale, Isaiah Crowell (IR)
WR: Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Evans (IR), Odell Beckham, Michael Gallup, AJ Green, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Cole Beasley, Albert Wilson
TE: Hunter Henry, Noah Fant, Tyler Higbee, Rob Gronkowski

2020 Draft Picks: 3.07, 4.01, 4.06, 4.10
2021 Draft Picks: 2X 2nd, 9X 3rd, 8X 4th
2022 Draft Picks: 2X 1st, 3X 3rd, 5X 4th

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UnitedLoon
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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby UnitedLoon » Sat Nov 02, 2019 12:16 pm

One thing I just noticed, is that when going from 1QB to 2QB there are some odd player value changes. Njoku goes from 128.4 down to 108.6, where as Herndon goes from 109.9 up to 110.2. I don't get why Njoku is suddenly worth so much less, yet Herndon increases? Don't get me wrong, I know it's just a tool meant for fun and not meant to be the gospel on dynasty trades. Still, it's odd that there is such a drastic difference when only changing from 1QB to 2QB.

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dlf_kenm
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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby dlf_kenm » Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:09 pm

Hey loon... I think I may have said this before, but awesome logo / avi ! Love it!

Anyway, to answer your question, since the TA draws it's data from different sources this can lead to some surprising differences in player value between regular and SF leagues, For instance, the regular player values are pulled and combined from regular dynasty ADP, our overall dynasty rankings, and trades that happen in real world 1QB leagues.

The values for the 2QB / SF trades are drawn from a different data set - our 2QB / Superflex rankings, our SF ADP, and trades in SF leagues. Since these are different people and different data, these curious variations can occur.

There are as we all know pros and cons to every method. While the upside of constantly drawing from continuously updated data is a big plus in our opinion, it can lead to some weird results.

Anyway, hope that helps. Always welcome and appreciate the feedback!

KM

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UnitedLoon
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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby UnitedLoon » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:45 am

dlf_kenm wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:09 pm
Hey loon... I think I may have said this before, but awesome logo / avi ! Love it!

Anyway, to answer your question, since the TA draws it's data from different sources this can lead to some surprising differences in player value between regular and SF leagues, For instance, the regular player values are pulled and combined from regular dynasty ADP, our overall dynasty rankings, and trades that happen in real world 1QB leagues.

The values for the 2QB / SF trades are drawn from a different data set - our 2QB / Superflex rankings, our SF ADP, and trades in SF leagues. Since these are different people and different data, these curious variations can occur.

There are as we all know pros and cons to every method. While the upside of constantly drawing from continuously updated data is a big plus in our opinion, it can lead to some weird results.

Anyway, hope that helps. Always welcome and appreciate the feedback!

KM
Way late reply on my part, but thanks for the response! :) That's a big help.

Cbeals
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Trades today

Postby Cbeals » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:49 pm

Hey guys would love some feedback on 2 trades I did today
.5 ppr 1 qb league

Team1 : 1.03, white , and darnold
Team2: deshaun watson, Calvin Ridley, and 1.08

Team1: Montgomery, Christian Kirk, and Rodgers
Team2: 1.06, 1.10, and Guice

in situation one I was receiving Watson, ridley and 1.08
and
in situation 2 I was receiving Montgomery, kirk, and rodgers

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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:03 am

last year this was free during the offseason, will that also be available as a teaser this year?
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham, Hurts
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson, Dallas, T.Williams
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, S Miller, Begelton, Hodgins
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring, Trautman
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5

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ateam1970
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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby ateam1970 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:42 am

Just wondering when we will be able to use IDPs in trades
16 teams/80 years/all TD's 6pts/ ppr(TE 2ppr)/ IDP

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dlf_kenm
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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby dlf_kenm » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:55 am

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:03 am
last year this was free during the offseason, will that also be available as a teaser this year?
The TA was free last year for a period of time as we were rolling things out and working out the kinks. There are presently no plans to make it available for free, but not ruling it out, either.

Thanks!

KM

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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby dlf_kenm » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:57 am

ateam1970 wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:42 am
Just wondering when we will be able to use IDPs in trades
We have been discussing how to best assign values to both Devy players as well as IDP's. Both are trick, but IDP's especially so because of the wide variations in league scoring formats, roster requirements, and even just how people use and value IDP's. That said, we are working on it. Just ETA yet.

Thanks!

KM

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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby jonesmaster » Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:08 am

In the SF calculator (perhaps in the other one also) how can the 1.01 be worth more than any player that can be taken with it? Or are you just trying to show that the perceived value of the pick?

Also, really think that adjusting values for differences in league size is necessary in SF. QBs in 10 tm vs 16 tm leagues are not even close to par.

I love the tool, just making suggestions!
10-team SF / PPR / TE (1.5 PPR) Scoring: 1QB, 2WR, 2RB, 1FLX, 1 SFLX, 1TE, 1D/ST, K

QB: Wilson , Watson , Kyler , Stidham
RB: Miles , Barkley , Ekeler, MGIII, Royce, Coleman, Gio
WR: Tyreek , MT , Adams , ARob, Corey D, MJ jr, Golden, Lazard, Van Jeff, Claypool, Edwards
TE: Kittle , Engram, Cook, Dissly, Trautman, Asiasi
D/ST: Bills, LAC, Colts

8-team SF / 0.5 PPR / TE (PPR) Scoring: 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 2FLX, 1 SFLX, 1TE, 1D/ST, K

QB: Dak , Baker , Tannehill , Phil the Thrill
RB: CEH , Barkley , Jacobs, Dobbins, Dillon, Damien Will, Latavius, Edmonds, Ito, Hyde, Gibson
WR: AJB , Ridley , Lockett , TY, Deebo, Aiyuk, Crowder, Harry, Parris, Pittman Claypool, Edwards
TE: Waller , Hooper, Hockenson, OJ
D/ST: BAL

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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby jonf86 » Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:16 pm

jonesmaster wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:08 am
In the SF calculator (perhaps in the other one also) how can the 1.01 be worth more than any player that can be taken with it? Or are you just trying to show that the perceived value of the pick?

Also, really think that adjusting values for differences in league size is necessary in SF. QBs in 10 tm vs 16 tm leagues are not even close to par.

I love the tool, just making suggestions!
Not a calculator guy, but I assume it's two-fold:

One: There is value in having the choice
Two: There is potential for an elite player to go to an elite situation. Depending on league size if Taylor goes to the Chiefs, he should be the 1.01, even in some SF leagues
QB: D. Watson, T. Taylor, J. Driskel, J. Johnson, C. Rush, N. Sudfeld, M. White
RB: C. McCaffrey, C. Carson, K. Johnson, R. Penny, J. Samuels, D. Pumphrey
WR: J.J. Smith-Schuster, R. Woods, L. Fitzgerald, J. Nelson, M. Gallup R. Switzer, B. Berrios, C. Batson, R. Higgins, J. Kearse
TE: G. Kittle, I. Thomas, J Doyle, W. Dissly, J. Leggett, J. Gresham, T. Conklin
16 Team Dynasty (PPR). Lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, TE, FLEX, SFLEX
2018 Champs

QB: M. Stafford, J. Garoppolo
RB: I. Crowell, J. Williams, A. Abdullah, C.J. Anderson
WR: C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, W. Fuller, M. Valdez-Scantling, D.J. Chark, E. St. Brown, J. Kumerow, R. Higgins, C. Meredith, J. Kearse
TE: D. Njoku, H. Henry, C. Herndon, G. Everett, I. Thomas, J. Leggett, W. Dissly
14 Team SuperFlex Dynasty TE 1.5 PPR and .15PPY, WR PPR, RB .25PPC and .5PPR, QB: 4 Point TDs
Lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, FLEX, OP

OhCruelestRanter
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Re: The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:39 am

jonf86 wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:16 pm
jonesmaster wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:08 am
In the SF calculator (perhaps in the other one also) how can the 1.01 be worth more than any player that can be taken with it? Or are you just trying to show that the perceived value of the pick?

Also, really think that adjusting values for differences in league size is necessary in SF. QBs in 10 tm vs 16 tm leagues are not even close to par.

I love the tool, just making suggestions!
Not a calculator guy, but I assume it's two-fold:

One: There is value in having the choice
Two: There is potential for an elite player to go to an elite situation. Depending on league size if Taylor goes to the Chiefs, he should be the 1.01, even in some SF leagues
Exactly my thought. The difference between the 1.01 and the current highest ranked rookie represents the potential that a different player improves their standing. It’s the difference between the value of holding the pick in leagues that haven’t drafted rookies yet vs. holding the player in leagues that have already drafted.

For example, the 1.01 is more valuable than say, Swift, because while Swift’s value can never eclipse the 1.01 (you will always be able to use the 2020 1.01 on Swift if you choose) the value of the 1.01 can eclipse Swift’s if, say, Kansas City takes Taylor in the first round.
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