More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

[nathanq42]

But would they not be that much more dangerous with a stud RB like swift/dobbins/Taylor?

[Johnny B. Goode]

But would they not be that much more dangerous with a stud RB like swift/dobbins/Taylor?

... so they would win the superbowl by more points?

[FantasyFreak]

But would they not be that much more dangerous with a stud RB like swift/dobbins/Taylor?

... so they would win the superbowl by more points?

Mahomes had to play unconscious through the playoffs for them to get to the SB. I think the idea is, with a better RB, he won't have to carry the team the way he did. Just because it happened last year doesn't mean it will happen again this year. I'm sure Reid would love a better RB than Williams. Upgrading a SB roster at a weak spot only increases your chances of repeating, obviously. I don't think RB is the highest priority they will have, though, I agree the Chiefs likely don't draft a back early, but if they did, it certainly would be an ever more potent looking attack than last year.

[YouMightDieTryin]

The way the Chiefs were able to plug n play just about any RB into their lineup and be somewhat effective speaks volumes to them not needing a high profile RB. They had Darrell Williams looking like a legit starter for goodness sake.

RB isn't the focal spot it once was. Find someone serviceable that won't get injured, pay them rookie chicken feed, and once that's up move on. See: SF 49ers. Next man up.

Would it be a dream for them to take one of the top backs? YES! Will it happen with other defensive pressing needs? No.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

These multiple threads for the incoming rookie draft is starting to drive me crazy. Can we just make this one the official one?

[FantasyFreak]

These multiple threads for the incoming rookie draft is starting to drive me crazy. Can we just make this one the official one?

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. I'm all for it.

[djeternal2]

But would they not be that much more dangerous with a stud RB like swift/dobbins/Taylor?

... so they would win the superbowl by more points?

Mahomes had to play unconscious through the playoffs for them to get to the SB. I think the idea is, with a better RB, he won't have to carry the team the way he did. Just because it happened last year doesn't mean it will happen again this year. I'm sure Reid would love a better RB than Williams. Upgrading a SB roster at a weak spot only increases your chances of repeating, obviously. I don't think RB is the highest priority they will have, though, I agree the Chiefs likely don't draft a back early, but if they did, it certainly would be an ever more potent looking attack than last year.

Or maybe instead of taking a RB in the first few rounds they go defense so their D can stop someone and Mahomes doesn't have to play lights out. I mean the greatest QB of all time is there because those teams had special defenses.

[AussieMate]

But would they not be that much more dangerous with a stud RB like swift/dobbins/Taylor?

... so they would win the superbowl by more points?

By this logic they should donate all their draft picks to the lowly Browns Bengals as they don't need them, my Browns would appreciate another few chances to draft some more busts.

[skinfanjon]

Did you hear the funny tidbit about how thoroughly irrelevant the combine seems to be for WR prospects. He found greater correlation between worse forty yard times for 2nd round WR's and future success than the faster guys. Basically the two things that seemed to be connected to future success were total nonsense (like different weight lifting drills) suggesting the combine was total noise, and not helpful at all w/WR's.

That would echo what I've heared from rotoviz: namely, draft capital, then breakout age, then dominator, and if you're looking for more details you can check out some regression trees they make, but basically with WR, you're best advised to just use a combo of draft capital and breakout age, and dominator to screen guys out. You'll miss on the occasional guy like McLaurin and Michael Thomas, but they are so rare (only about 10-15% of WR's that are producing WR1-WR4 type seasons have sub 50ish percentile breakout ages, and oddly, 2 of the most recent 4 or 5 were Ohio State guys-so paying attention to situations like Ohio State, this year's Alabama perhaps, for outliers probably makes sense for the rare exceptions) that it's just a highly effective tool for tossing out some players more likely to bust than others.

Jesse Reeve's from PlayerProfiler seems to also think draft capital + breakout age is probably your best bet for a receiver

https://twitter.com/JesseReevesFF/statu ... 7859127298

Jesse must have seen my spreadsheet and been inspired...

This was covered a few pages ago. I can share my spreadsheet by request. Can predict a fantasy top 24 WR better than the NFL draft hit rate of a fantasy top 24 WR

No, it doesn't. I think it was kbryant that debunked this pages ago.

You really need to have a header above every one of your posts that reads something like "I speak authoritatively and condescendingly about everything despite being new to dynasty and owning a horrible track record from last years rookie draft cough Darell Henderson Andy Isabella JJAW NKeal Harry cough".

[bjd5211]

Jesse Reeve's from PlayerProfiler seems to also think draft capital + breakout age is probably your best bet for a receiver

https://twitter.com/JesseReevesFF/statu ... 7859127298

Jesse must have seen my spreadsheet and been inspired...

This was covered a few pages ago. I can share my spreadsheet by request. Can predict a fantasy top 24 WR better than the NFL draft hit rate of a fantasy top 24 WR

No, it doesn't. I think it was kbryant that debunked this pages ago.

You really need to have a header above every one of your posts that reads something like "I speak authoritatively and condescendingly about everything despite being new to dynasty and owning a horrible track record from last years rookie draft cough Darell Henderson Andy Isabella JJAW NKeal Harry cough".

Dude what is with your obsession with Johnny B. Goode? All your attempts at painting him as a fool only further succeed in proving yourself as one. Just shut up and go do your trolling elsewhere, you bring absolutely nothing to any discussion you make an appearance in.

[TimeWillTell]

Jesse Reeve's from PlayerProfiler seems to also think draft capital + breakout age is probably your best bet for a receiver

https://twitter.com/JesseReevesFF/statu ... 7859127298

Jesse must have seen my spreadsheet and been inspired...

This was covered a few pages ago. I can share my spreadsheet by request. Can predict a fantasy top 24 WR better than the NFL draft hit rate of a fantasy top 24 WR

No, it doesn't. I think it was kbryant that debunked this pages ago.

You really need to have a header above every one of your posts that reads something like "I speak authoritatively and condescendingly about everything despite being new to dynasty and owning a horrible track record from last years rookie draft cough Darell Henderson Andy Isabella JJAW NKeal Harry cough".

At least he attempted to bring something of value to this discussion. From what I can tell about 80% of your posts are going after him.

[Forza_Azzurri]

Plenty of average players have had a strong performance in the SB, Williams' performance means little to nothing going forward.

it means their system works well with average RBs (he had plenty of good performances since going there), and they are 10 a penny. again, doesn't mean they won't draft an RB early, i just think it's unlikely.

I agree here.

Which is true:
1. KC won the superbowl in spite of not having a star RB
2. KC didnt need a star RB to win the superbowl


KC doesnt need to invest a 1st round pick in a RB. I don't see it happening

Agreed ... KC is going to have too many holes to fill on defense... especially if they give Mahomes a new contract.

[Lord_Varys]

Plenty of average players have had a strong performance in the SB, Williams' performance means little to nothing going forward.

it means their system works well with average RBs (he had plenty of good performances since going there), and they are 10 a penny. again, doesn't mean they won't draft an RB early, i just think it's unlikely.

I agree here.

Which is true:
1. KC won the superbowl in spite of not having a star RB
2. KC didnt need a star RB to win the superbowl


KC doesnt need to invest a 1st round pick in a RB. I don't see it happening

Damien played like a superstar.

But he's a 27 year old, oft-injured player and they have basically nothing behind him. Darrel Williams is the dictionary definition of a JAG. Darwin Thompson doesn't get it between the ears. So if Kansas City sees this as a position of need, should they draft another mid-late Darwin Thompson or Darrel Williams? Or should they draft a guy knowing Damien's done soon? Doesn't need to be a first rounder. Cam Akers will be there in the third round potentially, or Zack Moss.

[Johnny B. Goode]

But would they not be that much more dangerous with a stud RB like swift/dobbins/Taylor?

... so they would win the superbowl by more points?

By this logic they should donate all their draft picks to the lowly Browns Bengals as they don't need them, my Browns would appreciate another few chances to draft some more busts.

I gave a facetious answer above because KC had one of, if not the, best offense in the NFL last year. People say, "but imagine them with a great rb!"

My retort is... well, can you be better than the best? 1st place is 1st place. theres no 1st+. But I get it, they could be even more dominant, sure, but maybe not? Whos to say a top rb would do better than Williams did in the superbowl?

Next man up works for KC. They should really upgrade their defense... and I think they will.

The cliche thing used to be to suggest a rb or wr would go to NE. Now it's just KC. Which I get it, talented players + potent offense = juicy fantasy situation. It just gets tiresome when it's not as realistic as we would all hope.

Maybe they do take a RB round 1. but I'd be surprised.

[Hottoddies]

Interesting hearing Scott Barrett from PFF saying Taylor should be the clear 1.01. The analytics he used had him in a class of players that is jaw dropping. He also said yards per route run was the most predictive stat for receiving at the next level for RB's, in which he finished first, and Swift 2nd.

I wouldn't put much weight on any comparative college production stats. Any college production is more a reflection on a particular college team than an individual player. Such comparison are mostly meaningless.

In the context of Wisconsin's offensive scheme, RBs are rarely used in the passing attack. In those situations where they threw to Taylor out of the backfield he was rarely picked up by a defender. In this light it would make sense that those plays were highly successful.