Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:03 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:53 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:51 am
Lord_Varys wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:47 am

What specifically about his advanced analytics profile is horrifying?
I'm guessing his Dominator Rating, but it's kind of hard to dominate a passing game you have to share with 3 other potential 1st round WRs.
Why do people keep saying this. Smith clearly didn’t have a first round grade as he went back to school and dating back to 2014 (probably further as well, I stopped looking) only 1 receiver has been drafted in the first without a 1000 yard season in college and that was Phil Dorsett who was a horrid selection at the time, no hindsight needed.

Waddle is going to need 1000 yards next year or it looks like him and Ruggs are BOTH apparently breaking the mould of first round wide receivers drafted in the last decade.
Devonta Smith had 1,200 yards this year and was Bama's leading receiver, Waddle is a true Sophomore who was 4th in line and still had almost 600 yards and was the best player on the field vs Auburn.

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby alewilliam789 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:22 pm

Lord_Varys wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:47 am
alewilliam789 wrote: Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:54 am I’m not touching Jerry Jeudy with a 10’ pole no matter how high he’s drafted. He has incredibly low odds of ever being a dominant WR1 in the NFL. This is how he’ll be drafted of course.

That advanced analytics profile is horrifying to look at.

Let’s just 20% or less of WRs with his profile ever become multiple year top 24 PPR players. Most of those players are positional converts or are completely undrafted (Edelman/Hill/Thielen/Baldwin). Complete and utter outliers
What specifically about his advanced analytics profile is horrifying?
Final DR and Career DR. His Career Dominator Rating is like 17%, when top tier prospects grade out at least 30% on really good teams. His Final Collegiate DR was like a 24-26%. The only thing he will have going for him is high percentile Breakout age, he most likely will be drafted early, and he’ll probably test pretty well. In my system that isn’t enough to be considered a top tier true stud prospect even if he tests out magnificently. He does still have like a 18-20% chance of hitting because of the Breakout age, but man that’s real low odds for a player you’ll be taking with a top 4-5 pick.

Also let me say this. I’ve put a lot of work into creating my system and using stats to quantify whether it actually works. It literally captures almost every stud (player to repeat multiple times as a top 24 PPR WR) that has combine numbers within common era (Up to about 2001 with Steve Smith) that isn’t a complete outlier and successfully weeds out a ridiculous percentage of WR prospects (usually only 2-5 prospects that fit my model per draft). The outliers include players like Edelman, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin, Adam Thielen, Brandon Marshall, and Victor Cruz, but it still predicts 80%+ of “stud” WRs. Undrafted players and players that convert from different positions are impossible to create a system for because even if they are skilled it’s impossible to have any predictability with just athleticism. I’m thinking of posting my results on the forum, but I’m greedy and have been using them successfully to buy-low on young WRs that fit my profile :lol:.

Back to Jeudy, I don’t care how good he looks on parts of film against Duke. If he was THAT GREAT he would have been more dominant on his own team even if he had 3 other “great” WRs (Not sure I agree Ruggs and Waddle are considered “great” just yet). I find it hard to believe “the best route runner we’ve seen in 20 years” couldn’t achieve a fairly average 30%+ Final DR (50th percentile) with one of the most accurate QBs in college football. I hope he proves me wrong, but history isn’t on his side.
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby cantguardjake » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:30 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:03 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:53 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:51 am

I'm guessing his Dominator Rating, but it's kind of hard to dominate a passing game you have to share with 3 other potential 1st round WRs.
Why do people keep saying this. Smith clearly didn’t have a first round grade as he went back to school and dating back to 2014 (probably further as well, I stopped looking) only 1 receiver has been drafted in the first without a 1000 yard season in college and that was Phil Dorsett who was a horrid selection at the time, no hindsight needed.

Waddle is going to need 1000 yards next year or it looks like him and Ruggs are BOTH apparently breaking the mould of first round wide receivers drafted in the last decade.
Devonta Smith had 1,200 yards this year and was Bama's leading receiver, Waddle is a true Sophomore who was 4th in line and still had almost 600 yards and was the best player on the field vs Auburn.
I’m aware of Smiths yards, which is why it’s telling he went back to school I doubt he was receiving round 1 feedback (I personally feel he was a day 2 pick).

I’m also aware Waddle is a sophomore, what I’m saying is history suggests that he will need 1000 yards his junior season to be drafted in the first round, or his production profile will be a massive outlier much the same way that Ruggs first round projection is, given his college production to date.

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Lord_Varys » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:37 pm

It's really easy for me to look at context alongside dominator ratings. But if you have a system that works for you, then that is good for you.

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Nanananananana » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:46 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:30 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:03 pm
cantguardjake wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:53 pm

Why do people keep saying this. Smith clearly didn’t have a first round grade as he went back to school and dating back to 2014 (probably further as well, I stopped looking) only 1 receiver has been drafted in the first without a 1000 yard season in college and that was Phil Dorsett who was a horrid selection at the time, no hindsight needed.

Waddle is going to need 1000 yards next year or it looks like him and Ruggs are BOTH apparently breaking the mould of first round wide receivers drafted in the last decade.
Devonta Smith had 1,200 yards this year and was Bama's leading receiver, Waddle is a true Sophomore who was 4th in line and still had almost 600 yards and was the best player on the field vs Auburn.
I’m aware of Smiths yards, which is why it’s telling he went back to school I doubt he was receiving round 1 feedback (I personally feel he was a day 2 pick).

I’m also aware Waddle is a sophomore, what I’m saying is history suggests that he will need 1000 yards his junior season to be drafted in the first round, or his production profile will be a massive outlier much the same way that Ruggs first round projection is, given his college production to date.
Smith will not be any higher next year, the class is even more stacked and he’s not that top top level prospect. Najee shouldn’t have gone back either, Saban is a good salesman I’d imagine

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:01 pm

I posted this in another thread about Jeudy (25% dominator), it's a red flag for sure but like I always say it's not absolute and draft pedigree may very well "save" him.
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:40 pm Not the most neatly formatted but here are the WR's in the database under 30% dominator with top 3 round draft pedigree. I highlighted the "hits" which I determined is multiple 1k yard seasons.

_Name___Dominator_Draft Pick
Andre Johnson 28.80% 1.03
Mike Williams 27.00% 1.07
Ted Ginn 28.50% 1.09
Santana Moss 24.80% 1.16
Jeremy Maclin 29.50% 1.19
Percy Harvin 21.40% 1.22
Laquon Treadwell 29.00% 1.23
Marquise Brown 26.20% 1.25
Kelvin Benjamin 29.30% 1.28
Cordarrelle Patterson 17.40% 1.29
Justin Hunter 27.20% 2.02
Deebo Samuel 27.20% 2.04
Devin Smith 26.80% 2.05
Curtis Samuel 29.00% 2.08
Eddie Royal 21.70% 2.11
Cody Latimer 27.40% 2.24
Mecole Hardman 18.70% 2.24
Devin Hester 1.10% 2.25
Aaron Dobson 26.10% 2.27
Parris Campbell 23.50% 2.27
Greg Little 10.90% 2.27
D.J. Chark 25.30% 2.29
Randall Cobb 28.20% 2.32
Jalen Hurd 24.00% 3.03
DeVier Posey 25.00% 3.05
T.J. Graham 23.10% 3.06
Chris Conley 29.30% 3.12
Terry McLaurin 17.70% 3.12
Austin Pettis 27.80% 3.14
Marquise Goodwin 13.60% 3.16
Jerrel Jernigan 21.80% 3.19
Brandon Tate 20.00% 3.19
Mike Wallace 29.60% 3.2
Braxton Miller 14.80% 3.22
Sammie Coates 29.50% 3.23
Taylor Price 25.10% 3.26
Andre Caldwell 28.20% 3.34
Brendan Langley 4.00% 3.37


Basically, you better pray Jeudy is a top 20 draft pick :pray:

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby alewilliam789 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:43 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:01 pm I posted this in another thread about Jeudy (25% dominator), it's a red flag for sure but like I always say it's not absolute and draft pedigree may very well "save" him.
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:40 pm Not the most neatly formatted but here are the WR's in the database under 30% dominator with top 3 round draft pedigree. I highlighted the "hits" which I determined is multiple 1k yard seasons.

_Name___Dominator_Draft Pick
Andre Johnson 28.80% 1.03
Mike Williams 27.00% 1.07
Ted Ginn 28.50% 1.09
Santana Moss 24.80% 1.16
Jeremy Maclin 29.50% 1.19
Percy Harvin 21.40% 1.22
Laquon Treadwell 29.00% 1.23
Marquise Brown 26.20% 1.25
Kelvin Benjamin 29.30% 1.28
Cordarrelle Patterson 17.40% 1.29
Justin Hunter 27.20% 2.02
Deebo Samuel 27.20% 2.04
Devin Smith 26.80% 2.05
Curtis Samuel 29.00% 2.08
Eddie Royal 21.70% 2.11
Cody Latimer 27.40% 2.24
Mecole Hardman 18.70% 2.24
Devin Hester 1.10% 2.25
Aaron Dobson 26.10% 2.27
Parris Campbell 23.50% 2.27
Greg Little 10.90% 2.27
D.J. Chark 25.30% 2.29
Randall Cobb 28.20% 2.32
Jalen Hurd 24.00% 3.03
DeVier Posey 25.00% 3.05
T.J. Graham 23.10% 3.06
Chris Conley 29.30% 3.12
Terry McLaurin 17.70% 3.12
Austin Pettis 27.80% 3.14
Marquise Goodwin 13.60% 3.16
Jerrel Jernigan 21.80% 3.19
Brandon Tate 20.00% 3.19
Mike Wallace 29.60% 3.2
Braxton Miller 14.80% 3.22
Sammie Coates 29.50% 3.23
Taylor Price 25.10% 3.26
Andre Caldwell 28.20% 3.34
Brendan Langley 4.00% 3.37


Basically, you better pray Jeudy is a top 20 draft pick :pray:
Yeah I guess it depends on how you quantify hits. I will say I think the top 24 PPR is more relevant because it standardizes production. If the league threw a lot less it doesn’t mean you are a bum if you had 900 yds when you were top 10 PPR scorer at your position. If QBs make 4000+ yds the standard norm who knows how common the 1k yard mark will be for WRs.
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby cantguardjake » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:02 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:53 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:51 am
Lord_Varys wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:47 am

What specifically about his advanced analytics profile is horrifying?
I'm guessing his Dominator Rating, but it's kind of hard to dominate a passing game you have to share with 3 other potential 1st round WRs.
Why do people keep saying this. Smith clearly didn’t have a first round grade as he went back to school and dating back to 2014 (probably further as well, I stopped looking) only 1 receiver has been drafted in the first without a 1000 yard season in college and that was Phil Dorsett who was a horrid selection at the time, no hindsight needed.

Waddle is going to need 1000 yards next year or it looks like him and Ruggs are BOTH apparently breaking the mould of first round wide receivers drafted in the last decade.
Correction to this, Parker also never had a 1000 yard season (although he did average 142 yards a game his senior year).

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Krypto_King » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:59 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2020 12:03 am
Krypto_King wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:45 pm I really enjoyed this but I can't get past pairing Lamb with "not explosive enough." I expect him to jump out of the gym, he reminds me of prime Sammy
No way he runs low 4.4's IMO. Prime Sammy wasn't that good. Maybe athletically, but I don't think Lamb is that athletic. I don't expect him to test as well, but if he stays healthy, he should have a better career, because lets face it, Watkins is a bust.
I agree I don't think he has great top speed, maybe mid 4.4s. prime sammy was the top devy prospect for multiple seasons and had 990 yards as a 21yo rookie, pretty not bad in my book.

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby kmbryant09 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:40 pm

Got around to some more tape sessions, wanted to post my thoughts on one of my favorite players in this year's draft class:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - What a baller. He's everything you could want in a RB and fits the modern NFL so perfectly. I think he's the best pass-catching RB in this class, and it isn't even close. He runs legitimate routes out of the backfield, and is an absolute nightmare against LBs, particularly on diamond or option routes. Some might think he's "undersized", but he's built with a thick lower body and his BMI is more than high enough. He actually uses his diminutive stature to his advantage, displaying a ridiculously low center of gravity that allows him to maintain balance through contact. He has enough leg drive & strength to push defenders forward, yet enough lateral agility to make them miss in space. He has a full arsenal of moves, including a nasty spin move and a great jump cut in between the tackles. He moves with suddenness with very little wasted movement. I think his one *weakness* is his long speed. While he has great quickness and acceleration, I think his top-end speed is pretty capped and will be noticeable at the NFL level. He's plenty athletic, I just don't expect him to break away from secondaries and destroy pursuit angles against NFL speed.

Player Comparison: Christian McCaffrey. That's right, I said it. This is more about CMC the prospect coming out of college, as I recognize that he's continued to get bigger, faster, stronger, and better at the next level. I'm not projecting CEH to immediately be a top3 fantasy RB, but I think their games are very similar as surprisingly above-average runners and elite level pass-catchers. Only difference might be CEH's lack of long speed compared to CMC.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: J. Hurts, K. Murray
RB: Bi. Robinson, D. Henry, D. Achane, , J. Cook, Z. Charbonnet, T. Chandler, R. Johnson, K. Mitchell, J.K. Dobbins, T. Allgeier, J. McLaughlin, S. Tucker, T. Bigsby
WR: G. Wilson, B. Aiyuk, J. Waddle, T. Higgins,, Z. Flowers, Di. Johnson, K. Toney, A. Iosivas
TE: K. Pitts, E. Engram, C. Okonkwo, G. Dulcich

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Hottoddies » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:48 pm

kmbryant09 wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:40 pm Got around to some more tape sessions, wanted to post my thoughts on one of my favorite players in this year's draft class:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - What a baller. He's everything you could want in a RB and fits the modern NFL so perfectly. I think he's the best pass-catching RB in this class, and it isn't even close. He runs legitimate routes out of the backfield, and is an absolute nightmare against LBs, particularly on diamond or option routes. Some might think he's "undersized", but he's built with a thick lower body and his BMI is more than high enough. He actually uses his diminutive stature to his advantage, displaying a ridiculously low center of gravity that allows him to maintain balance through contact. He has enough leg drive & strength to push defenders forward, yet enough lateral agility to make them miss in space. He has a full arsenal of moves, including a nasty spin move and a great jump cut in between the tackles. He moves with suddenness with very little wasted movement. I think his one *weakness* is his long speed. While he has great quickness and acceleration, I think his top-end speed is pretty capped and will be noticeable at the NFL level. He's plenty athletic, I just don't expect him to break away from secondaries and destroy pursuit angles against NFL speed.

Player Comparison: Christian McCaffrey. That's right, I said it. This is more about CMC the prospect coming out of college, as I recognize that he's continued to get bigger, faster, stronger, and better at the next level. I'm not projecting CEH to immediately be a top3 fantasy RB, but I think their games are very similar as surprisingly above-average runners and elite level pass-catchers. Only difference might be CEH's lack of long speed compared to CMC.
I came away from watching his film with the same impression. I now have him in my top 4 RB prospects ahead of Taylor and behind only Swift & Dobbins. He may not have the same top end speed of the other 3 RBs but I don't see that as a major handicap to his success at the next level. Top end speed rarely comes into play for RBs. It's more about short area burst.
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby mild » Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:59 pm

Hottoddies wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:48 pm I came away from watching his film with the same impression. I now have him in my top 4 RB prospects ahead of Taylor and behind only Swift & Dobbins. He may not have the same top end speed of the other 3 RBs but I don't see that as a major handicap to his success at the next level. Top end speed rarely comes into play for RBs. It's more about short area burst.
Ahead of Taylor! :shock: Holy carp-fish that is bold...

I'm going to just leave this here.
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:54 pm

Hottoddies wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:48 pm
kmbryant09 wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:40 pm Got around to some more tape sessions, wanted to post my thoughts on one of my favorite players in this year's draft class:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - What a baller. He's everything you could want in a RB and fits the modern NFL so perfectly. I think he's the best pass-catching RB in this class, and it isn't even close. He runs legitimate routes out of the backfield, and is an absolute nightmare against LBs, particularly on diamond or option routes. Some might think he's "undersized", but he's built with a thick lower body and his BMI is more than high enough. He actually uses his diminutive stature to his advantage, displaying a ridiculously low center of gravity that allows him to maintain balance through contact. He has enough leg drive & strength to push defenders forward, yet enough lateral agility to make them miss in space. He has a full arsenal of moves, including a nasty spin move and a great jump cut in between the tackles. He moves with suddenness with very little wasted movement. I think his one *weakness* is his long speed. While he has great quickness and acceleration, I think his top-end speed is pretty capped and will be noticeable at the NFL level. He's plenty athletic, I just don't expect him to break away from secondaries and destroy pursuit angles against NFL speed.

Player Comparison: Christian McCaffrey. That's right, I said it. This is more about CMC the prospect coming out of college, as I recognize that he's continued to get bigger, faster, stronger, and better at the next level. I'm not projecting CEH to immediately be a top3 fantasy RB, but I think their games are very similar as surprisingly above-average runners and elite level pass-catchers. Only difference might be CEH's lack of long speed compared to CMC.
I came away from watching his film with the same impression. I now have him in my top 4 RB prospects ahead of Taylor and behind only Swift & Dobbins. He may not have the same top end speed of the other 3 RBs but I don't see that as a major handicap to his success at the next level. Top end speed rarely comes into play for RBs. It's more about short area burst.
Taylor is by far the superior prospect. I love CEH, but I disagree with the ranking. It's fine to have him there, it's your rankings, but "film watching" is literally the only reason one can have him there, and even then, I don't know what you are seeing.
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Straycatz2 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:46 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:54 pm Taylor is by far the superior prospect. I love CEH, but I disagree with the ranking. It's fine to have him there, it's your rankings, but "film watching" is literally the only reason one can have him there, and even then, I don't know what you are seeing.
CEH looks great for any system that uses lots of RPO. Him to the Cardinals in the 3rd round would be perfect. He's one where film makes him look good.
https://twitter.com/JMoyerFB/status/122 ... 72736?s=19

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:23 pm

Straycatz2 wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:46 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:54 pm Taylor is by far the superior prospect. I love CEH, but I disagree with the ranking. It's fine to have him there, it's your rankings, but "film watching" is literally the only reason one can have him there, and even then, I don't know what you are seeing.
CEH looks great for any system that uses lots of RPO. Him to the Cardinals in the 3rd round would be perfect. He's one where film makes him look good.
https://twitter.com/JMoyerFB/status/122 ... 72736?s=19
I think they keep Drake. However I love Clyde. There is just no comparison between him and Taylor, though for me. The production isn't even close, and JT destroyed as a freshman, he wasn't a 1 year guy. He was 3 years of insane production. He's also going to show out at the combine, most likely, vs Clyde. I think CEH can be a very useful RB in the NFL, but I think Taylor has the ability to lead the league in rushing if he goes to the right spot.
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