David Johnson - Code Red Panic? - Traded to Houston

[djeternal2]

The only way they will be able to trade him is if they agree to keep a significant amount of his salary on their books (not entirely sure if this is even a thing in the NFL, I know it happens in the NBA/MLB) or in a deal similar to the Browns and Brock Osweiler a few years ago. In the Osweiler deal the Texans traded Brock plus a 2nd round pick to the Browns for a late round pick, so they would clear his contract off of their books and Cleveland absorbed it with all their cap space and were compensated with the 2nd round pick. Those trades happen all the time in the NBA, but I'm pretty sure it was the first of its kind in the NFL so it's probably unlikely. If Indy didn't have Mack and wasn't planning on extending him they would be the perfect fit for this type of deal, because they have a massive amount of cap space and DJ's contract is really only a burden for this year and won't be a massive expenditure to cut or keep beyond 2020. The most logical fit after Indy would be TB as they are fairly well off in the cap, they are not at all set at RB (sorry Rojo owners/truthers but it's true) and he obviously flourished in Arians' system; so maybe TB would be willing to do something like a 6th rounder for DJ + a 3. It's highly unlikely they can pull off a trade though and if they want him gone they'll probably have to just eat the cap hit and cut him.

But again why cut him and eat even more cap? That makes no sense unless he's a lockerroom headache. I haven't heard anything about him being that type of cancer where getting him off the team is better than having him there. Is an RB1 any more? Most likely not. Can he be the backup to Drake? Why not? Would he be the most expensive backup RB in NFL history? Probably but again it costs more to cut him than keep him this year. If you want him gone and can't trade him then cut him after 2020 where you actually get cap savings instead of eating up more cap room. Then again this is the Cardinals so they'll draft another 4 WRs, say bleep the OL, and cut DJ.

[bjd5211]

Pretty sure that while they would take a cap space hit for cutting him, they would still save real dollars by cutting him vs keeping him on the roster. Most of his cap hit is from his signing bonus which was largely paid out at signing but the actual cap hit was spread out over the life of the contract. He is only guaranteed $5.1M base salary for 2020 but that escalates to $10.2M if he is still on the roster on 3/15/2020, plus he has another $2.1M that would be guaranteed for 2021 on 3/20/2021. So while they can't do a lot about the cap hit either way, they can save a little over $7M in cash by cutting him before 3/15 this year.

Contract details:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-car ... son-16810/#

[djeternal2]

Pretty sure that while they would take a cap space hit for cutting him, they would still save real dollars by cutting him vs keeping him on the roster. Most of his cap hit is from his signing bonus which was largely paid out at signing but the actual cap hit was spread out over the life of the contract. He is only guaranteed $5.1M base salary for 2020 but that escalates to $10.2M if he is still on the roster on 3/15/2020, plus he has another $2.1M that would be guaranteed for 2021 on 3/20/2021. So while they can't do a lot about the cap hit either way, they can save a little over $7M in cash by cutting him before 3/15 this year.

Contract details:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-car ... son-16810/#

Actually rereading DJs contract info his 2020 base salary is already fully guaranteed. First 5.1 mil was guaranteed at signing the contract. The other 5.1 mil guaranteed 3/15/19.

$24.6M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2018 salary + 2019 salary + $5.1M of 2020 salary)
Remaining $5.1M of 2020 salary fully guarantees on 3/15/2019

They "save" more in cap hit by keeping him on the roster rather than cutting him. From your link:

PRE-6/1 RELEASE
2020 Dead Cap: $16,200,000
2020 Cap Savings: $-2,043,750

On the roster cap hit $14,156,250

The only way they save on the cap is a trade.

PRE-6/1 TRADE
2020 Dead Cap: $6,000,000
2020 Cap Savings: $8,156,250

So again why cut him if you take a cap hit for doing so vs keeping him on the roster? You construct an actual NFL roster each year based on the salary cap not actual $$ paid out to players that year. Add to the 2mil extra hitting your cap with the $ they have to then pay the player taking Djs spot. Also isn't Drake a FA? If so there's more cap being taken up because he's almost assuredly being resigned.


IMO the only reason this idea is out there is because it's the dead time for the NFL. Writers/sites need clicks. Just like last year during this time we saw a ton of pro Hendo articles and Gurley death spiral articles. This year I predict a lot of articles about Gurley, DJ, & Bell being moved.

**edit bolded all info copied from https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-car ... son-16810/#

[bjd5211]

Because Billionaires didn't become Billionaires by just giving away money that is not worth spending. The cap hit is pretty much set in stone whether they keep him or not, but keeping him increases the amount of money they have to spend.

[djeternal2]

Because Billionaires didn't become Billionaires by just giving away money that is not worth spending. The cap hit is pretty much set in stone whether they keep him or not, but keeping him increases the amount of money they have to spend.

Reread my edited post. 2.1 mil of his 2021 salary guarantees on 3/20/20 not his 2020 salary.

[bjd5211]

Because Billionaires didn't become Billionaires by just giving away money that is not worth spending. The cap hit is pretty much set in stone whether they keep him or not, but keeping him increases the amount of money they have to spend.

Reread my edited post. 2.1 mil of his 2021 salary guarantees on 3/20/20 not his 2020 salary.

Which means $7.2M becomes guaranteed then, because $5.1M for '20 becomes guaranteed on 3/15.

[djeternal2]

Because Billionaires didn't become Billionaires by just giving away money that is not worth spending. The cap hit is pretty much set in stone whether they keep him or not, but keeping him increases the amount of money they have to spend.

Reread my edited post. 2.1 mil of his 2021 salary guarantees on 3/20/20 not his 2020 salary.

Which means $7.2M becomes guaranteed then, because $5.1M for '20 becomes guaranteed on 3/15.

[bjd5211]

Reread my edited post. 2.1 mil of his 2021 salary guarantees on 3/20/20 not his 2020 salary.

Which means $7.2M becomes guaranteed then, because $5.1M for '20 becomes guaranteed on 3/15.

You really aren't making your point clear and your edit added nothing to whatever point you were trying to make earlier. This time last year we were not talking about Henderson's affect on Gurley because the draft was still months away and Henderson was not on the team.

As for DJ keeping him on the roster only locks them into having to pay him more money than they are already on the hook for. The cap hit is a sunk cost and there's not much they can do about it going forward either way, but the actual money they have to spend on him goes up by keeping him around and activating those remaining guarantees.

[FantasyFreak]

Which means $7.2M becomes guaranteed then, because $5.1M for '20 becomes guaranteed on 3/15.

You really aren't making your point clear and your edit added nothing to whatever point you were trying to make earlier. This time last year we were not talking about Henderson's affect on Gurley because the draft was still months away and Henderson was not on the team.

As for DJ keeping him on the roster only locks them into having to pay him more money than they are already on the hook for. The cap hit is a sunk cost and there's not much they can do about it going forward either way, but the actual money they have to spend on him goes up by keeping him around and activating those remaining guarantees.

.....and to think DJ was thing of being "DJ 2K" coming into this year. He was aiming for what CMC did. 1000 rushing/1000 receiving for a 2000 yard total. Ouch.

[bjd5211]

I really don't know what they will do and would put the odds around 45/45/10 to Keep/Cut/Trade him. I don't see a trade as very likely and I see the reasoning for both keeping him or cutting. What I do know is that I don't own him in fantasy and almost certainly never will barring getting him for free off waivers, so ultimately it doesn’t affect me much. 2016 is never coming back for him, but I know you believers are still out there clinging onto that false hope.

[Pullo Vision]

GM Keim points to David Johnson's kick return ability and passing game prowess when discussing his value even if not a starter- https://www.azcardinals.com/news/steve- ... k-peterson

Chatter elsewhere is that, while Keim dismissed cutting him as an option, a trade (including eating a portion of the money due) can't be ruled out. Talk also that resigning Drake would/could make Arizona trade Johnson.

[Cameron Giles]

Unfortunately, there's no market for an expensive RB, coming off his worst season, and being in his late 20s....unless you attach draft compensation, which is probably out of the question.

I think it's about a 95% chance he is in Arizona next season. And if he's healthy, he can win his job back.

[FantasyFreak]

Unfortunately, there's no market for an expensive RB, coming off his worst season, and being in his late 20s....unless you attach draft compensation, which is probably out of the question.

I think it's about a 95% chance he is in Arizona next season. And if he's healthy, he can win his job back.

Rumours that Drake is going to stay. Hearing the tag is even in play. If that's the case, they are going to feature him. He was terrific down the stretch last year. I think it will be an uphill battle. DJ hasn't looked good as a runner in years.

[Vcize]

Unfortunately, there's no market for an expensive RB, coming off his worst season, and being in his late 20s....unless you attach draft compensation, which is probably out of the question.

I think it's about a 95% chance he is in Arizona next season. And if he's healthy, he can win his job back.

Rumours that Drake is going to stay. Hearing the tag is even in play. If that's the case, they are going to feature him. He was terrific down the stretch last year. I think it will be an uphill battle. DJ hasn't looked good as a runner in years.

DJ has never really been a particularly good runner. It's always his versatility that made him valuable, but that versatility can be used just as well in a part time role as a full time one.

I know YPC is far from the end all be all, but even in his huge season he averaged only 4.2ypc and he hasn't come close to even that mediocre number since then. Drake averaged 5.2ypc in his half season with Arizona (DJ 3.7ypc on the same offense).

The fact that they are talking up his value as a kick returner should tell us everything we need to know about how they value him relative to Drake.

[bjd5211]

Unfortunately, there's no market for an expensive RB, coming off his worst season, and being in his late 20s....unless you attach draft compensation, which is probably out of the question.

I think it's about a 95% chance he is in Arizona next season. And if he's healthy, he can win his job back.

Rumours that Drake is going to stay. Hearing the tag is even in play. If that's the case, they are going to feature him. He was terrific down the stretch last year. I think it will be an uphill battle. DJ hasn't looked good as a runner in years.

That's going to be a massive amount of money spent on the RB position if they use the FT on Drake, they are financially tied to DJ unless they can find a way to trade that untradable contract.