More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

[Jigga94]

If he picked Paper and lost, that just translates even further to him being soft. Going to be hard to matchup against NFL corners and beat press if you pick Paper

[cantguardjake]

It always amuses me when someone says they’re not drafting a particular player because of an analytical factor like dominator rating and then people cue up to tell them why it doesn’t apply in that particular instance.

That’s the whole point of drafting based on analytics, the score is the score - it doesn’t matter what the “factors” are. Either you’re drafting on analytics with Jeudy and his dominator rating is a red flag that you won’t be touching, or your not.

Neither is wrong, but it’s pointless to argue about the semantics as to why a dominator rating doesn’t apply when someone says that’s why they’re not drafting him.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

It always amuses me when someone says they’re not drafting a particular player because of an analytical factor like dominator rating and then people cue up to tell them why it doesn’t apply in that particular instance.

That’s the whole point of drafting based on analytics, the score is the score - it doesn’t matter what the “factors” are. Either you’re drafting on analytics with Jeudy and his dominator rating is a red flag that you won’t be touching, or your not.

Neither is wrong, but it’s pointless to argue about the semantics as to why a dominator rating doesn’t apply when someone says that’s why they’re not drafting him.

That's true to an extent, and is one of my pet peeves. I mean you had people caping up for Ameer Abdullah saying that it doesn't matter he was slow because he could bench press a lot. The numbers are what they are. However, in Jeudy's case, if you look at the WR's drafted in the top 20 of the 1st round with similar dominator ratings as Jeudy, the comps are actually very good but for the lone exception of Tedd Ginn. And we all know Ginn was not drafted for his route running abilities. So while I agree that people go overboard trying to justify red flags, sometimes there are valid reasons to minimize certain statistical red flags.

[OhCruelestRanter]

It always amuses me when someone says they’re not drafting a particular player because of an analytical factor like dominator rating and then people cue up to tell them why it doesn’t apply in that particular instance.

That’s the whole point of drafting based on analytics, the score is the score - it doesn’t matter what the “factors” are. Either you’re drafting on analytics with Jeudy and his dominator rating is a red flag that you won’t be touching, or your not.

Neither is wrong, but it’s pointless to argue about the semantics as to why a dominator rating doesn’t apply when someone says that’s why they’re not drafting him.

This is a really bad take. You’ve confused “drafting based on analytics” to “slavish devotion to a singular metric.” Dominator rating was created because wildly different college offenses produced wildly different receiving numbers, and it turned out that earning a higher percentage of your teams yards/receptions/TDs was better correlated with NFL success than with raw totals.

But it’s just one metric. Jeudy still has great per catch numbers and a good breakout age. He’ll likely test well at the combine, and he’ll likely be attached to premium draft capital. Saying that you “won’t be touching” Jeudy because one of his measurements was below average is bad process. It’s not even that bad! There are plenty of first round WRs with similar dominator ratings who had great careers. Ruggs’, on the other hand, is much worse in the same context.

People who understand and use these tools can discuss their utility on a case by case basis. Jeudy is part of a WR room that could produce three NFL first round picks. That context is important.

[bjd5211]

There's four potential 1st rounders that played meaningful snaps at WR for Bama this year, Waddle is really good too.

[FantasyFreak]

If he picked Paper and lost, that just translates even further to him being soft. Going to be hard to matchup against NFL corners and beat press if you pick Paper

Yep. Unless he did it like this, and went with rock, but always uses the same move. Players will quickly adapt to guys that are one trick ponies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0SoKWLkmLU

[Kmani6]

It always amuses me when someone says they’re not drafting a particular player because of an analytical factor like dominator rating and then people cue up to tell them why it doesn’t apply in that particular instance.

That’s the whole point of drafting based on analytics, the score is the score - it doesn’t matter what the “factors” are. Either you’re drafting on analytics with Jeudy and his dominator rating is a red flag that you won’t be touching, or your not.

Neither is wrong, but it’s pointless to argue about the semantics as to why a dominator rating doesn’t apply when someone says that’s why they’re not drafting him.

Two analytical scores people use for WR at this point are College Dominator and Breakout Age. What do you do when they both paint completely different pictures? Jeudy’s breakout age is 82 percentile. Analytics are not black and white where you can either “only draft on analytics or not” because a lot of the analytics tell completely different stories about the same player. This is where the context comes into play.

[Cameron Giles]

It always amuses me when someone says they’re not drafting a particular player because of an analytical factor like dominator rating and then people cue up to tell them why it doesn’t apply in that particular instance.

That’s the whole point of drafting based on analytics, the score is the score - it doesn’t matter what the “factors” are. Either you’re drafting on analytics with Jeudy and his dominator rating is a red flag that you won’t be touching, or your not.

Neither is wrong, but it’s pointless to argue about the semantics as to why a dominator rating doesn’t apply when someone says that’s why they’re not drafting him.

The whole point of using analytics and game tape is to acquire as many facts as possible. Trusting numbers at face value without context doesn't offer that. Otherwise, you trust Leonte Carroo's dominator rating over Jerry Jeudy's, while ignoring tape and all the reasons why those numbers are that way.

Jeudy playing in a high volume passing offense that features three first round caliber WR's absolutely matters. There is a right and wrong way to use analytics.

[Gtdano_14]

Jeudy's poor college PRS rating. Surely it has as much predicting ability as the 3 cone scores.

I would like to call a motion for this heretic to be banished from the forums. PRS!?!? Paper, rock, scissors!?

WITCH!!!!!

My thoughts exactly!! Good catch, Lumps.

[cantguardjake]

It always amuses me when someone says they’re not drafting a particular player because of an analytical factor like dominator rating and then people cue up to tell them why it doesn’t apply in that particular instance.

That’s the whole point of drafting based on analytics, the score is the score - it doesn’t matter what the “factors” are. Either you’re drafting on analytics with Jeudy and his dominator rating is a red flag that you won’t be touching, or your not.

Neither is wrong, but it’s pointless to argue about the semantics as to why a dominator rating doesn’t apply when someone says that’s why they’re not drafting him.

That's true to an extent, and is one of my pet peeves. I mean you had people caping up for Ameer Abdullah saying that it doesn't matter he was slow because he could bench press a lot. The numbers are what they are. However, in Jeudy's case, if you look at the WR's drafted in the top 20 of the 1st round with similar dominator ratings as Jeudy, the comps are actually very good but for the lone exception of Tedd Ginn. And we all know Ginn was not drafted for his route running abilities. So while I agree that people go overboard trying to justify red flags, sometimes there are valid reasons to minimize certain statistical red flags.

Its hard to explain exactly what I mean without it being an “absolute” statement, but I feel like you understand the point I’m trying to make.

I did see your comment re: Jeudy and being drafted in the top 20. I find comments like that much more enlightening than “yea but he is playing with 3 other first rounders, his dominator doesn’t matter!”

[Prison_Mike]

Sorry to interrupt the Jeudy discussion but thought this info would be relevant and useful to many here & wanted to share

Analysis from @DynoGameTheory on twitter regarding what the profile of a top-12 dynasty RB looks like in today's game
(What metrics are most important)

https://twitter.com/DynoGameTheory/stat ... 78561?s=20

(If you're on twitter give the guy a follow btw)

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Sorry to interrupt the Jeudy discussion but thought this info would be relevant and useful to many here & wanted to share

Analysis from @DynoGameTheory on twitter regarding what the profile of a top-12 dynasty RB looks like in today's game
(What metrics are most important)

https://twitter.com/DynoGameTheory/stat ... 78561?s=20

(If you're on twitter give the guy a follow btw)

Some good stuff there but obviously the sample size he's using is incredibly small. Agility is not as relevant as people think, however if you look back historically at some of the best rb's in the past 10 years or so, burst is not more relevant than agility, etc. I could go on but you get the point. That stuff aside, overall he did a good job.

[Prison_Mike]

Sorry to interrupt the Jeudy discussion but thought this info would be relevant and useful to many here & wanted to share

Analysis from @DynoGameTheory on twitter regarding what the profile of a top-12 dynasty RB looks like in today's game
(What metrics are most important)

https://twitter.com/DynoGameTheory/stat ... 78561?s=20

(If you're on twitter give the guy a follow btw)

Some good stuff there but obviously the sample size he's using is incredibly small. Agility is not as relevant as people think, however if you look back historically at some of the best rb's in the past 10 years or so, burst is not more relevant than agility, etc. I could go on but you get the point. That stuff aside, overall he did a good job.

Agreed, and the limited sample size is why I added "in today's game" to my post; because the importance of these metrics could fluctuate greatly depending on who the consensus top-12 is at the time

[lanemitchell96]

There's four potential 1st rounders that played meaningful snaps at WR for Bama this year, Waddle is really good too.

This is a great point. I've seen a lot of chatter regarding Jerry Jeudy's dominator rating and market share, and how it matters but has to be contextualized. Seeing this discussion continues to make me think of the BreakoutFinder. It's a project by Nate Liss and Ryan Lopes under the RotoUnderworld umbrella where they take "teammate score" and "dynamic score" into consideration when giving prospects a breakout score. I believe the BreakoutFinder app is coming out soon, according to Nate, Ryan, and Matt Kelley on their podcasts. The teammate score in particular will come in handy with Jeudy, because the higher level prospects a given player plays with in college, the higher his teammate score will be. That specific metric will help give some context to the college dominator rating. If a player had a high college dominator but had no competition for targets on his own team, his teammate score would indicate that and provide a background for his high dominator, and vice versa if a receiver has three other first round wide receivers to compete for targets with on his own team, his teammate score should be very high, which helps paint a bigger picture around his production metrics. Now, there are a receiver or two I do like better than Jeudy but assuming he has a great teammate score, a great breakout age, should test well athletically at the combine, and VERY importantly...should get great draft capital (which really matters), he'll round out as a very good prospect. Yes, there are areas of concern and a red flag or two in his prospect profile, but the fact of the matter is, you can't rely on ONE metric to judge a prospect, for good or for bad, just as you can't rely on one game of film or one highlight reel or one play you saw live. Just be careful with confirmation bias and always use more than one data point during the evaluation process.

[bjd5211]

What issues do people have with Jeudy outside of Dominator Rating?