More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Kmani6 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:17 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:33 pm
honcho55 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:53 pm Also want to comment here, seems like a good place. It happens every year....

I know weight/BMI is important, predictive, etc. But I invite anyone reading this to step on a scale every day for a couple weeks. Train at a high level during this time. Your weight is gonna fluctuate a *ton*. Add in the schools motivations to ‘pad’ numbers? I don’t get why it’s even a blip when a guy is listed at 216, and weighs 208 at the combine. Complete and utter non factor, period. In fact I’d say it’s likely he dropped some weight to run a faster 40, if anything.

Moving guys too far on a board for that kinda stuff blows my mind.

Would like to hear from guys posting their analytical models here though, I’m fairly certain guys like DD use things like speed score? BMI vs 40 time or similar?
Speed score yeah, single most predictive workout metric for rbs at least. Whether a player gains or loses a few lbs shouldn’t be too big of a deal because if they lose weight they should run faster, gain weight run slower, but their speed score should be roughly the same.

A lot of the metric stuff is used wrongly unfortunately. For example, Jeudys dominator rating is pretty bad, but if you look at players with similar dominator where he’s supposed to be drafted (early-mid 1st) the comps are actually great.
Jeudy's dominator rating is only bad because of how many insane offensive weapons they have that's all. It would be ridiculously high if he was on some other team.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Breece Hall, Swift, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jamarr Chase, DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Travis Kelce

2023 Picks: 1.4, 1.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.6, 3.8

Dynasty Team 2:

10 Man, Half PPR, Double Flex

QB: Tua
RB: Barkley , Mixon, Javonte, Jacobs, CEH
WR: AJB, Tyreek, Lamb, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Kittle

2022 Picks: 1.5, 1.6, 2.3
2023 Picks: 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby AussieMate » Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:42 pm

Kmani6 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:17 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:33 pm
honcho55 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:53 pm Also want to comment here, seems like a good place. It happens every year....

I know weight/BMI is important, predictive, etc. But I invite anyone reading this to step on a scale every day for a couple weeks. Train at a high level during this time. Your weight is gonna fluctuate a *ton*. Add in the schools motivations to ‘pad’ numbers? I don’t get why it’s even a blip when a guy is listed at 216, and weighs 208 at the combine. Complete and utter non factor, period. In fact I’d say it’s likely he dropped some weight to run a faster 40, if anything.

Moving guys too far on a board for that kinda stuff blows my mind.

Would like to hear from guys posting their analytical models here though, I’m fairly certain guys like DD use things like speed score? BMI vs 40 time or similar?
Speed score yeah, single most predictive workout metric for rbs at least. Whether a player gains or loses a few lbs shouldn’t be too big of a deal because if they lose weight they should run faster, gain weight run slower, but their speed score should be roughly the same.

A lot of the metric stuff is used wrongly unfortunately. For example, Jeudys dominator rating is pretty bad, but if you look at players with similar dominator where he’s supposed to be drafted (early-mid 1st) the comps are actually great.
Jeudy's dominator rating is only bad because of how many insane offensive weapons they have that's all. It would be ridiculously high if he was on some other team.
I'm not a stats guy but I've heard that really shouldn't matter, I do really rate Smith on that team though, I don't rate Ruggs at all and he barely took anything off the other receivers.
Someone who follows that stuff could explain it. I like what i see on tape with Jeudy so that'll do me.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby nathanq42 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:33 pm

Just found out I won the 1.01, not sad about it. Lots of pressure, quite nervous tbh... Going to try to trade down
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Kmani6 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:37 pm

nathanq42 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:33 pm Just found out I won the 1.01, not sad about it. Lots of pressure, quite nervous tbh... Going to try to trade down
Wait until draft night.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Breece Hall, Swift, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jamarr Chase, DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Travis Kelce

2023 Picks: 1.4, 1.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.6, 3.8

Dynasty Team 2:

10 Man, Half PPR, Double Flex

QB: Tua
RB: Barkley , Mixon, Javonte, Jacobs, CEH
WR: AJB, Tyreek, Lamb, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Kittle

2022 Picks: 1.5, 1.6, 2.3
2023 Picks: 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby alewilliam789 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:23 pm

nathanq42 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:33 pm Just found out I won the 1.01, not sad about it. Lots of pressure, quite nervous tbh... Going to try to trade down
Is this Masters?
I may or may not be related to Bryan Edwards

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby nathanq42 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:36 pm

alewilliam789 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:23 pm
nathanq42 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:33 pm Just found out I won the 1.01, not sad about it. Lots of pressure, quite nervous tbh... Going to try to trade down
Is this Masters?
I am unfamiliar with this term so I'm going to assume no...
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:06 pm

Benchwarmer101 wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:15 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:17 am I really don't get the skepticism on Jeudy. He is the best WR in this class today by a comfortable margin. Among other things, he wins at every level of the field, is an elite route runner and separator, can lineup anywhere in the formation, fantastic YAC ability and has reliable hands. What more could you want from a WR? He's by far the safest prospect in this class and he has an elite ceiling. If he tests with a 4.3 on top of all of this, then that's absolutely iNSANE.

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I love the RB's in this class, but Deandre Swift is not a better football player than Jerry Jeudy, and I don't even think Jonathan Taylor is either.
Judy is great white the ball in his hands. He’s great at tracking the ball and catching away from his body. What Judy is NOT good at is getting away from a defender off the line. He easily gets knocked around and tends to give up on the play when he gets knocked off his rout. If he comes into the NFL as a WR 1, he’s in for a big surprise. NFL defenders break you down much better than college defenders. He could be the best receiver in this class, but given his weight and lack of strength off the line of scrimmage, i don’t see him as a #1 receiver in the NFL.
You guys realize he is just a troll deliberately misspelling Jeudy’s name? Not sure why any of you are engaging him.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby bjd5211 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:07 pm

Forza_Azzurri wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:06 pm
Benchwarmer101 wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:15 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:17 am I really don't get the skepticism on Jeudy. He is the best WR in this class today by a comfortable margin. Among other things, he wins at every level of the field, is an elite route runner and separator, can lineup anywhere in the formation, fantastic YAC ability and has reliable hands. What more could you want from a WR? He's by far the safest prospect in this class and he has an elite ceiling. If he tests with a 4.3 on top of all of this, then that's absolutely iNSANE.

Image
ImageImage
Image

I love the RB's in this class, but Deandre Swift is not a better football player than Jerry Jeudy, and I don't even think Jonathan Taylor is either.
Judy is great white the ball in his hands. He’s great at tracking the ball and catching away from his body. What Judy is NOT good at is getting away from a defender off the line. He easily gets knocked around and tends to give up on the play when he gets knocked off his rout. If he comes into the NFL as a WR 1, he’s in for a big surprise. NFL defenders break you down much better than college defenders. He could be the best receiver in this class, but given his weight and lack of strength off the line of scrimmage, i don’t see him as a #1 receiver in the NFL.
You guys realize he is just a troll deliberately misspelling Jeudy’s name? Not sure why any of you are engaging him.
FDD is back!

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Krypto_King » Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:59 pm

honcho55 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:49 pm
YouMightDieTryin wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:15 pm Anywho....

What do people think about Rodney Smith (RB-MIN)? He's currently ranked 69. That's fun.
Scrolled a bit, didn’t see a response to this. Not hard to guess why haha

Anyways, goophs fan here. I think he has a nice shot at having an NFL career as a depth guy, practice squad guy at least. I don’t see fantasy relevance
I remember I liked he and Shannon Brooks a bit back when they came into school in 2011

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Friction » Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:05 pm

Im not getting sucked into that trap again after David Cobb. In other news, how about Ibrahim for next year?!
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12 Team 1PPR 1QB/1-3RB/1-3 WR/1TE/1DST
QB:Brady
RB: Barkley, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, Mack, Etienne
WR: Nuk, Thielen, Cooks, Diontae, Pittman, Gallup
TE: Henry

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Friction » Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:06 pm

alewilliam789 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:23 pm
nathanq42 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:33 pm Just found out I won the 1.01, not sad about it. Lots of pressure, quite nervous tbh... Going to try to trade down
Is this Masters?
I dont think Masters has done their lotteries yet, usuaully after all the updates.
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12 Team 1PPR 1QB/1-3RB/1-3 WR/1TE/1DST
QB:Brady
RB: Barkley, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, Mack, Etienne
WR: Nuk, Thielen, Cooks, Diontae, Pittman, Gallup
TE: Henry

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Friction » Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:07 pm

Forza_Azzurri wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:06 pm
Benchwarmer101 wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:15 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:17 am I really don't get the skepticism on Jeudy. He is the best WR in this class today by a comfortable margin. Among other things, he wins at every level of the field, is an elite route runner and separator, can lineup anywhere in the formation, fantastic YAC ability and has reliable hands. What more could you want from a WR? He's by far the safest prospect in this class and he has an elite ceiling. If he tests with a 4.3 on top of all of this, then that's absolutely iNSANE.

Image
ImageImage
Image

I love the RB's in this class, but Deandre Swift is not a better football player than Jerry Jeudy, and I don't even think Jonathan Taylor is either.
Judy is great white the ball in his hands. He’s great at tracking the ball and catching away from his body. What Judy is NOT good at is getting away from a defender off the line. He easily gets knocked around and tends to give up on the play when he gets knocked off his rout. If he comes into the NFL as a WR 1, he’s in for a big surprise. NFL defenders break you down much better than college defenders. He could be the best receiver in this class, but given his weight and lack of strength off the line of scrimmage, i don’t see him as a #1 receiver in the NFL.
You guys realize he is just a troll deliberately misspelling Jeudy’s name? Not sure why any of you are engaging him.
What about Acres? I thought that was more clever.
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12 Team 1PPR 1QB/1-3RB/1-3 WR/1TE/1DST
QB:Brady
RB: Barkley, Chubb, Jacobs, Henry, Mack, Etienne
WR: Nuk, Thielen, Cooks, Diontae, Pittman, Gallup
TE: Henry

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Kmani6 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:16 pm

AussieMate wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:42 pm
Kmani6 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:17 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:33 pm

Speed score yeah, single most predictive workout metric for rbs at least. Whether a player gains or loses a few lbs shouldn’t be too big of a deal because if they lose weight they should run faster, gain weight run slower, but their speed score should be roughly the same.

A lot of the metric stuff is used wrongly unfortunately. For example, Jeudys dominator rating is pretty bad, but if you look at players with similar dominator where he’s supposed to be drafted (early-mid 1st) the comps are actually great.
Jeudy's dominator rating is only bad because of how many insane offensive weapons they have that's all. It would be ridiculously high if he was on some other team.
I'm not a stats guy but I've heard that really shouldn't matter, I do really rate Smith on that team though, I don't rate Ruggs at all and he barely took anything off the other receivers.
Someone who follows that stuff could explain it. I like what i see on tape with Jeudy so that'll do me.
Well so far this is kinda a new situation. Devonta smith could be a 1st round pick depending on his development next year then you’re looking at potentially 3 1st round WR + Waddle.

Basically Ruggs College dominator is even worse and is basically terrible at 17 percentile, which is the equivalent of him never breaking out. There’s some crazy stat out there like 4/98 possible receivers have finished top 24 in the past ~20 years or something, with one of them being Tyreek Hill, who never “broke out” in college.

Clearly Jeudy and Ruggs are 1st round talents, and with proper context of how stacked Alabama’s WR core is it might makes sense to dismiss the stat entirely because clearly both players are “dominant WR’s”. I think of it as if a NFL team had 3 stud WR’s (which never happens), then each of their respective stats would be depressed. If you’re looking for advanced stats on Jeudy his 82 percentile breakout age is way more impressive, which is the same as Lamb’s.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Breece Hall, Swift, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jamarr Chase, DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Travis Kelce

2023 Picks: 1.4, 1.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.6, 3.8

Dynasty Team 2:

10 Man, Half PPR, Double Flex

QB: Tua
RB: Barkley , Mixon, Javonte, Jacobs, CEH
WR: AJB, Tyreek, Lamb, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Kittle

2022 Picks: 1.5, 1.6, 2.3
2023 Picks: 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby AussieMate » Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:13 am

Kmani6 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:16 pm
AussieMate wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:42 pm
Kmani6 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:17 pm

Jeudy's dominator rating is only bad because of how many insane offensive weapons they have that's all. It would be ridiculously high if he was on some other team.
I'm not a stats guy but I've heard that really shouldn't matter, I do really rate Smith on that team though, I don't rate Ruggs at all and he barely took anything off the other receivers.
Someone who follows that stuff could explain it. I like what i see on tape with Jeudy so that'll do me.
Well so far this is kinda a new situation. Devonta smith could be a 1st round pick depending on his development next year then you’re looking at potentially 3 1st round WR + Waddle.

Basically Ruggs College dominator is even worse and is basically terrible at 17 percentile, which is the equivalent of him never breaking out. There’s some crazy stat out there like 4/98 possible receivers have finished top 24 in the past ~20 years or something, with one of them being Tyreek Hill, who never “broke out” in college.

Clearly Jeudy and Ruggs are 1st round talents, and with proper context of how stacked Alabama’s WR core is it might makes sense to dismiss the stat entirely because clearly both players are “dominant WR’s”. I think of it as if a NFL team had 3 stud WR’s (which never happens), then each of their respective stats would be depressed. If you’re looking for advanced stats on Jeudy his 82 percentile breakout age is way more impressive, which is the same as Lamb’s.
I'm actually on board with Jeudy just thought I'd mention it as smarter people than me don't think it should matter. I was hoping Smith came out this year as I'm stacked with 1sts and liked him in my top3 wrs.
I think Ruggs is a massive bust who will get drafted in the first off speed alone, people want to make him Tyreek but I feel Reagor is a closer comp as he has that lateral movement to go along with top speed. Ruggs comps more to Ginn which was mentioned in a pod that I thought was more accurate.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:43 am

i have the 3rd pick in a 24 team league. i'm expecting qb and rb to go 1 and 2. i have jeudy tentatively locked in at 3 if that is the case.

i just think wrs have better long term value in keeper leagues. and 24 team leagues you need to be solid across the board to have a chance to win it all. there's no point having rbs putting up points on your bench when your wrs are average.


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