Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

[bjd5211]

I’m not touching Jerry Jeudy with a 10’ pole no matter how high he’s drafted. He has incredibly low odds of ever being a dominant WR1 in the NFL. This is how he’ll be drafted of course.

That advanced analytics profile is horrifying to look at.

Let’s just 20% or less of WRs with his profile ever become multiple year top 24 PPR players. Most of those players are positional converts or are completely undrafted (Edelman/Hill/Thielen/Baldwin). Complete and utter outliers

I agree here. Chances of him actually panning out are low based on historical analytics

Because he was on the same team as 3 other WRs who are all potential 1st round picks in the NFL Draft themselves? How many other examples of this have there been? Not many, if any, I'm guessing.

[kmbryant09]

I’m not touching Jerry Jeudy with a 10’ pole no matter how high he’s drafted. He has incredibly low odds of ever being a dominant WR1 in the NFL. This is how he’ll be drafted of course.

That advanced analytics profile is horrifying to look at.

Let’s just 20% or less of WRs with his profile ever become multiple year top 24 PPR players. Most of those players are positional converts or are completely undrafted (Edelman/Hill/Thielen/Baldwin). Complete and utter outliers

I agree here. Chances of him actually panning out are low based on historical analytics

Because he was on the same team as 3 other WRs who are all potential 1st round picks in the NFL Draft themselves? How many other examples of this have there been? Not many, if any, I'm guessing.

Not to mention on a dominant team that could sit on a lead much of the 2nd half / 4th quarters rather than continue to rack up passing yards and touchdowns.

And having an NFL caliber QB that showed a willingness and ability to involve multiple pieces in the passing game.

[Vcize]

I’m not touching Jerry Jeudy with a 10’ pole no matter how high he’s drafted. He has incredibly low odds of ever being a dominant WR1 in the NFL. This is how he’ll be drafted of course.

That advanced analytics profile is horrifying to look at.

Let’s just 20% or less of WRs with his profile ever become multiple year top 24 PPR players. Most of those players are positional converts or are completely undrafted (Edelman/Hill/Thielen/Baldwin). Complete and utter outliers

I agree here. Chances of him actually panning out are low based on historical analytics

The chances of Calvin Ridley panning out based on analytics were even more horrible than Jeudy's. Josh Jacobs' were even worse than that.

The incredible amount of talent present on modern Alabama teams coupled with their tendency to get out to huge leads in most of their games makes a lot of those analytics worthless in trying to apply to that situation. If people haven't caught on to that by now than that is their own loss.

[alewilliam789]

I’m not touching Jerry Jeudy with a 10’ pole no matter how high he’s drafted. He has incredibly low odds of ever being a dominant WR1 in the NFL. This is how he’ll be drafted of course.

That advanced analytics profile is horrifying to look at.

Let’s just 20% or less of WRs with his profile ever become multiple year top 24 PPR players. Most of those players are positional converts or are completely undrafted (Edelman/Hill/Thielen/Baldwin). Complete and utter outliers

I think the context had to be taken into consideration. 2 day 1 prospects jeudy and from what I've heard waddle is expected there too, plus 2 day 2 prospects in ruggs and Smith. Hard to stand out in that group

Yeah, I think Nate Liss came up with a metric called "teammate score", that takes into account the level of players around them. Guys like DK come out much better due to AJB and vice versa. Jeudy will be drafted as one of the top WR's in this class. Not necessarily a "dominant WR1". The guy won the Biletnikoff as a sophomore. Advanced analytics aren't gospel. Josh Jacobs made them look foolish. There is still a reality scouting beyond analytics. They have their faults. To each their own, but I'd put money on Jeudy being a top 24 PPR WR for 2 years in his career.

For me advanced analytics dictate who I draft. I have my own model which is more predictive in its own right rather than just saying good DR and BA. The only reason I watch tape is to make sure I’m ranking properly and valuing accordingly. My philosophy is that the numbers tell me who has the potential to actually be productive at the next level (a hit). Honestly, this year with Jeudy it’s tough. I have him high ranked (top 3-4 WR in the class), but I have no choice but to to adjust based off his really low market-share numbers.

I’ve heard about the teammate score. It’s interesting, I’ll say that at least. The thing is that most WRs, even AJB and DK, still cleared minimum thresholds in their analytical profile. They had Treadwell, each other, and Evan Engram and they still 1. broke out early and 2. Had 30%+ DR in their final year. The thing is there was a player, Devonta Smith, who had 30+% DR on Alabama so it’s not like we can sit here and say that nobody had a 30%+ market share or higher.

Jerry Jeudy looks good, not great, on tape and there have been 100 billion other WRs that have similarly done so. He may go top 10 in the draft, but quite frankly I don’t even think he was even better than his teammate Smith. I’m just telling you now don’t draft him. You will be sadly left empty-handed

[alewilliam789]

I’m not touching Jerry Jeudy with a 10’ pole no matter how high he’s drafted. He has incredibly low odds of ever being a dominant WR1 in the NFL. This is how he’ll be drafted of course.

That advanced analytics profile is horrifying to look at.

Let’s just 20% or less of WRs with his profile ever become multiple year top 24 PPR players. Most of those players are positional converts or are completely undrafted (Edelman/Hill/Thielen/Baldwin). Complete and utter outliers

I agree here. Chances of him actually panning out are low based on historical analytics

The chances of Calvin Ridley panning out based on analytics were even more horrible than Jeudy's. Josh Jacobs' were even worse than that.

The incredible amount of talent present on modern Alabama teams coupled with their tendency to get out to huge leads in most of their games makes a lot of those analytics worthless in trying to apply to that situation. If people haven't caught on to that by now than that is their own loss.

This is actually untrue. Calvin Ridley was uber productive as a collegiate WR and averaged 30% DR over the course of his entire career when given the opportunity. The career 30% DR is super impressive feat and only elite collegiate producers ever do that. He was drafted high and tested about average to slightly below average. So he still has a stud profile, but by no means is it traditional.

If not for injury, he probably would have had his second top 24 PPR finish in as many years.

[Orenthal Shames]

I agree here. Chances of him actually panning out are low based on historical analytics

The chances of Calvin Ridley panning out based on analytics were even more horrible than Jeudy's. Josh Jacobs' were even worse than that.

The incredible amount of talent present on modern Alabama teams coupled with their tendency to get out to huge leads in most of their games makes a lot of those analytics worthless in trying to apply to that situation. If people haven't caught on to that by now than that is their own loss.

This is actually untrue. Calvin Ridley was uber productive as a collegiate WR and averaged 30% DR over the course of his entire career when given the opportunity. The career 30% DR is super impressive feat and only elite collegiate producers ever do that. He was drafted high and tested about average to slightly below average. So he still has a stud profile, but by no means is it traditional.

If not for injury, he probably would have had his second top 24 PPR finish in as many years.

Right. I was hesitant on Ridley coming out, but his 30% DR vs SEC defenses and 4.43 with first round draft capital was far from a terrible profile.

[esloan35]

I think the context had to be taken into consideration. 2 day 1 prospects jeudy and from what I've heard waddle is expected there too, plus 2 day 2 prospects in ruggs and Smith. Hard to stand out in that group

Yeah, I think Nate Liss came up with a metric called "teammate score", that takes into account the level of players around them. Guys like DK come out much better due to AJB and vice versa. Jeudy will be drafted as one of the top WR's in this class. Not necessarily a "dominant WR1". The guy won the Biletnikoff as a sophomore. Advanced analytics aren't gospel. Josh Jacobs made them look foolish. There is still a reality scouting beyond analytics. They have their faults. To each their own, but I'd put money on Jeudy being a top 24 PPR WR for 2 years in his career.

For me advanced analytics dictate who I draft. I have my own model which is more predictive in its own right rather than just saying good DR and BA. The only reason I watch tape is to make sure I’m ranking properly and valuing accordingly. My philosophy is that the numbers tell me who has the potential to actually be productive at the next level (a hit). Honestly, this year with Jeudy it’s tough. I have him high ranked (top 3-4 WR in the class), but I have no choice but to to adjust based off his really low market-share numbers.

I’ve heard about the teammate score. It’s interesting, I’ll say that at least. The thing is that most WRs, even AJB and DK, still cleared minimum thresholds in their analytical profile. They had Treadwell, each other, and Evan Engram and they still 1. broke out early and 2. Had 30%+ DR in their final year. The thing is there was a player, Devonta Smith, who had 30+% DR on Alabama so it’s not like we can sit here and say that nobody had a 30%+ market share or higher.

Jerry Jeudy looks good, not great, on tape and there have been 100 billion other WRs that have similarly done so. He may go top 10 in the draft, but quite frankly I don’t even think he was even better than his teammate Smith. I’m just telling you now don’t draft him. You will be sadly left empty-handed

What are your thoughts on Lamb??

[FantasyFreak]

Yeah, I think Nate Liss came up with a metric called "teammate score", that takes into account the level of players around them. Guys like DK come out much better due to AJB and vice versa. Jeudy will be drafted as one of the top WR's in this class. Not necessarily a "dominant WR1". The guy won the Biletnikoff as a sophomore. Advanced analytics aren't gospel. Josh Jacobs made them look foolish. There is still a reality scouting beyond analytics. They have their faults. To each their own, but I'd put money on Jeudy being a top 24 PPR WR for 2 years in his career.

For me advanced analytics dictate who I draft. I have my own model which is more predictive in its own right rather than just saying good DR and BA. The only reason I watch tape is to make sure I’m ranking properly and valuing accordingly. My philosophy is that the numbers tell me who has the potential to actually be productive at the next level (a hit). Honestly, this year with Jeudy it’s tough. I have him high ranked (top 3-4 WR in the class), but I have no choice but to to adjust based off his really low market-share numbers.

I’ve heard about the teammate score. It’s interesting, I’ll say that at least. The thing is that most WRs, even AJB and DK, still cleared minimum thresholds in their analytical profile. They had Treadwell, each other, and Evan Engram and they still 1. broke out early and 2. Had 30%+ DR in their final year. The thing is there was a player, Devonta Smith, who had 30+% DR on Alabama so it’s not like we can sit here and say that nobody had a 30%+ market share or higher.

Jerry Jeudy looks good, not great, on tape and there have been 100 billion other WRs that have similarly done so. He may go top 10 in the draft, but quite frankly I don’t even think he was even better than his teammate Smith. I’m just telling you now don’t draft him. You will be sadly left empty-handed

What are your thoughts on Lamb??

Todd McShay spends a lot more time and is paid a lot more money to do this, and while that does not mean his word is gold, it's certainly more reputable than anyone on these boards. He says Jeudy is the best route runner he's studied since doing this, in about 20 years or so, which qualifies as looking more than just good, to evaluators eyes IMO.

[Orenthal Shames]

For me advanced analytics dictate who I draft. I have my own model which is more predictive in its own right rather than just saying good DR and BA. The only reason I watch tape is to make sure I’m ranking properly and valuing accordingly. My philosophy is that the numbers tell me who has the potential to actually be productive at the next level (a hit). Honestly, this year with Jeudy it’s tough. I have him high ranked (top 3-4 WR in the class), but I have no choice but to to adjust based off his really low market-share numbers.

I’ve heard about the teammate score. It’s interesting, I’ll say that at least. The thing is that most WRs, even AJB and DK, still cleared minimum thresholds in their analytical profile. They had Treadwell, each other, and Evan Engram and they still 1. broke out early and 2. Had 30%+ DR in their final year. The thing is there was a player, Devonta Smith, who had 30+% DR on Alabama so it’s not like we can sit here and say that nobody had a 30%+ market share or higher.

Jerry Jeudy looks good, not great, on tape and there have been 100 billion other WRs that have similarly done so. He may go top 10 in the draft, but quite frankly I don’t even think he was even better than his teammate Smith. I’m just telling you now don’t draft him. You will be sadly left empty-handed

What are your thoughts on Lamb??

Todd McShay spends a lot more time and is paid a lot more money to do this, and while that does not mean his word is gold, it's certainly more reputable than anyone on these boards. He says Jeudy is the best route runner he's studied since doing this, in about 20 years or so, which qualifies as looking more than just good, to evaluators eyes IMO.

Reading McShay's comment, I can't help but be reminded of Matt Waldman, who had never seen a better WR peospect than fourth-rounder Hakeem Butler.

[FantasyFreak]

What are your thoughts on Lamb??

Todd McShay spends a lot more time and is paid a lot more money to do this, and while that does not mean his word is gold, it's certainly more reputable than anyone on these boards. He says Jeudy is the best route runner he's studied since doing this, in about 20 years or so, which qualifies as looking more than just good, to evaluators eyes IMO.

Reading McShay's comment, I can't help but be reminded of Matt Waldman, who had never seen a better WR peospect than fourth-rounder Hakeem Butler.

Not really the same thing, IMO. Jeudy won the Biletnikoff as a sophomore, and is very young, and basically universally considered a first round pick and the best WR in this class. McShay has a lot more professional credibility than Matt Waldman does. Waldman's take on Butler was an "on an desert Island" type of comment. Nobody else was grading Butler that high. Jeudy is a much better prospect, and it's not really close.

[Packerland]

I would take JJ over Lamb or any WR in this draft.

[Orenthal Shames]

Todd McShay spends a lot more time and is paid a lot more money to do this, and while that does not mean his word is gold, it's certainly more reputable than anyone on these boards. He says Jeudy is the best route runner he's studied since doing this, in about 20 years or so, which qualifies as looking more than just good, to evaluators eyes IMO.

Reading McShay's comment, I can't help but be reminded of Matt Waldman, who had never seen a better WR peospect than fourth-rounder Hakeem Butler.

Not really the same thing, IMO. Jeudy won the Biletnikoff as a sophomore, and is very young, and basically universally considered a first round pick and the best WR in this class. McShay has a lot more professional credibility than Matt Waldman does. Waldman's take on Butler was an "on an desert Island" type of comment. Nobody else was grading Butler that high. Jeudy is a much better prospect, and it's not really close.

Agree on all fronts, the MW comment just makes me chuckle every time.

[Lord_Varys]

I’m not touching Jerry Jeudy with a 10’ pole no matter how high he’s drafted. He has incredibly low odds of ever being a dominant WR1 in the NFL. This is how he’ll be drafted of course.

That advanced analytics profile is horrifying to look at.

Let’s just 20% or less of WRs with his profile ever become multiple year top 24 PPR players. Most of those players are positional converts or are completely undrafted (Edelman/Hill/Thielen/Baldwin). Complete and utter outliers

What specifically about his advanced analytics profile is horrifying?

[bjd5211]

I’m not touching Jerry Jeudy with a 10’ pole no matter how high he’s drafted. He has incredibly low odds of ever being a dominant WR1 in the NFL. This is how he’ll be drafted of course.

That advanced analytics profile is horrifying to look at.

Let’s just 20% or less of WRs with his profile ever become multiple year top 24 PPR players. Most of those players are positional converts or are completely undrafted (Edelman/Hill/Thielen/Baldwin). Complete and utter outliers

What specifically about his advanced analytics profile is horrifying?

I'm guessing his Dominator Rating, but it's kind of hard to dominate a passing game you have to share with 3 other potential 1st round WRs.

[cantguardjake]

I’m not touching Jerry Jeudy with a 10’ pole no matter how high he’s drafted. He has incredibly low odds of ever being a dominant WR1 in the NFL. This is how he’ll be drafted of course.

That advanced analytics profile is horrifying to look at.

Let’s just 20% or less of WRs with his profile ever become multiple year top 24 PPR players. Most of those players are positional converts or are completely undrafted (Edelman/Hill/Thielen/Baldwin). Complete and utter outliers

What specifically about his advanced analytics profile is horrifying?

I'm guessing his Dominator Rating, but it's kind of hard to dominate a passing game you have to share with 3 other potential 1st round WRs.

Why do people keep saying this. Smith clearly didn’t have a first round grade as he went back to school and dating back to 2014 (probably further as well, I stopped looking) only 1 receiver has been drafted in the first without a 1000 yard season in college and that was Phil Dorsett who was a horrid selection at the time, no hindsight needed.

Waddle is going to need 1000 yards next year or it looks like him and Ruggs are BOTH apparently breaking the mould of first round wide receivers drafted in the last decade.