Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

[FantasyFreak]

I don't see Jeudy being nearly as athletic as OBJ, when it comes to vertical, contested grabs etc. Excellent route runner, though, top notch. Great after the catch. I have him up near the top, and as the top WR, but not in a tier on his own. WR points are so much easier to replace than a top end RB IMO. If you grab the right RB in this class, you will be better off than Jeudy. As is most often the case, I expect the top back in this class to be worth more than Jeudy at this time next year.

[esloan35]

Ditto, awesome write up. Taylor is a tough one not to pick up if the landing spot is good. So much potential in this group. Thanks for work!

[captain howdy]

Thanks for the effort on that write-up kmbryant

[kmbryant09]

I don't see Jeudy being nearly as athletic as OBJ, when it comes to vertical, contested grabs etc. Excellent route runner, though, top notch. Great after the catch. I have him up near the top, and as the top WR, but not in a tier on his own. WR points are so much easier to replace than a top end RB IMO. If you grab the right RB in this class, you will be better off than Jeudy. As is most often the case, I expect the top back in this class to be worth more than Jeudy at this time next year.

I agree with your point regarding RB vs WR value in general. I should clarify that my evaluations right now is solely based on player talent right now.

I'll definitely be updating and expanding my overall Big Board once these players have landing spots. And it will likely bump another RB or two into or above Jeudy's tier.

That being said, I still have some question marks surrounding 3 of the top 4 running backs:
-Swift: which player is he, the 2018 or 2019 version?
-Etienne: does he land in a situation that will put him in space where he can excel? And can he hold up as a between the tackles runner?
-Taylor: is he a 3 down back?

These are question marks that don't exist when I evaluate Jeudy - I feel safe projecting him as a top15 dynasty receiver regardless of where he ends up.

If your team needs RBs, it will be hard to pass one up early in this draft. But I don't get some of the recent hate on Jeudy.

[FantasyFreak]

I don't see Jeudy being nearly as athletic as OBJ, when it comes to vertical, contested grabs etc. Excellent route runner, though, top notch. Great after the catch. I have him up near the top, and as the top WR, but not in a tier on his own. WR points are so much easier to replace than a top end RB IMO. If you grab the right RB in this class, you will be better off than Jeudy. As is most often the case, I expect the top back in this class to be worth more than Jeudy at this time next year.

I agree with your point regarding RB vs WR value in general. I should clarify that my evaluations right now is solely based on player talent right now.

I'll definitely be updating and expanding my overall Big Board once these players have landing spots. And it will likely bump another RB or two into or above Jeudy's tier.

That being said, I still have some question marks surrounding 3 of the top 4 running backs:
-Swift: which player is he, the 2018 or 2019 version?
-Etienne: does he land in a situation that will put him in space where he can excel? And can he hold up as a between the tackles runner?
-Taylor: is he a 3 down back?

These are question marks that don't exist when I evaluate Jeudy - I feel safe projecting him as a top15 dynasty receiver regardless of where he ends up.

If your team needs RBs, it will be hard to pass one up early in this draft. But I don't get some of the recent hate on Jeudy.

I think Jeudy is fantastic. I don't see how Lamb is in the same tier, personally. I understand what you are saying. I just don't see him in a tier of his own with the RB class that is present this year. He's easily my top WR.

[nathanq42]

I don't see Jeudy being nearly as athletic as OBJ, when it comes to vertical, contested grabs etc. Excellent route runner, though, top notch. Great after the catch. I have him up near the top, and as the top WR, but not in a tier on his own. WR points are so much easier to replace than a top end RB IMO. If you grab the right RB in this class, you will be better off than Jeudy. As is most often the case, I expect the top back in this class to be worth more than Jeudy at this time next year.

Yeah RBs will have more of an immediate impact more often than a WR will, and the same rings true for 2015, if you took any of the top 3 backs (gurley, MG3,DJ) over Cooper you were laughing.... Up until this year when they all fell off/started falling off, and Cooper is just hitting his stride.

[FantasyFreak]

I don't see Jeudy being nearly as athletic as OBJ, when it comes to vertical, contested grabs etc. Excellent route runner, though, top notch. Great after the catch. I have him up near the top, and as the top WR, but not in a tier on his own. WR points are so much easier to replace than a top end RB IMO. If you grab the right RB in this class, you will be better off than Jeudy. As is most often the case, I expect the top back in this class to be worth more than Jeudy at this time next year.

Yeah RBs will have more of an immediate impact more often than a WR will, and the same rings true for 2015, if you took any of the top 3 backs (gurley, MG3,DJ) over Cooper you were laughing.... Up until this year when they all fell off/started falling off, and Cooper is just hitting his stride.

Yep. However if you use them for the first few years, and then trade them, you win on value and production. The tough thing for some is to trade a guy like DJ after 2016, or Gurley a year or two ago.

[nathanq42]

I don't see Jeudy being nearly as athletic as OBJ, when it comes to vertical, contested grabs etc. Excellent route runner, though, top notch. Great after the catch. I have him up near the top, and as the top WR, but not in a tier on his own. WR points are so much easier to replace than a top end RB IMO. If you grab the right RB in this class, you will be better off than Jeudy. As is most often the case, I expect the top back in this class to be worth more than Jeudy at this time next year.

Yeah RBs will have more of an immediate impact more often than a WR will, and the same rings true for 2015, if you took any of the top 3 backs (gurley, MG3,DJ) over Cooper you were laughing.... Up until this year when they all fell off/started falling off, and Cooper is just hitting his stride.

Yep. However if you use them for the first few years, and then trade them, you win on value and production. The tough thing for some is to trade a guy like DJ after 2016, or Gurley a year or two ago.

Very true, it'd be hard to let go of McCaffrey after this season for sure!

[kmbryant09]

A few more players / scouting reports:

Henry Ruggs III - Not gonna lie, I was fairly disappointed with Ruggs' tape. I went into it expecting to love him and his speed (I do love speed players!), but I was underwhelmed. While it's true, he possesses elite top-end speed, it did not show up consistently on tape. Specifically, he looks fast & explosive with the ball in his hands, turning a 5-yard slant into an 80-yard touchdown in the blink of an eye. However, his speed doesn't show up as often in his route running - crosses, outs, intermediate boundary routes, etc. - I don't know if it's an effort problem, but I can't tell you how many times Ruggs got zero separation on a crossing route in which he ran across the entire field.

Beyond that, he does show above-average change-of-direction and tracks the ball very well - an important skill for a deep threat. He has a very limited arsenal against press coverage, something that could get him in trouble in the NFL. Nearly 100% of the time, he tries to win with a quick lateral stutter-step & release. He doesn't use his hands nor his body to break the press and at the top of his routes.

He'll test well in the 40-yard dash, but I'm more curious how he performs in the drills.

Overall, I still like him as a receiver in the NFL, just not the borderline stud that I expected. A very strong off-season & combine could change my mind. I think he'll be a mid-late 1st round pick in both the NFL Draft and in dynasty.

Player Comparison: Will Fuller V

Justin Jefferson - What an unbelievable route runner. He plays almost exclusively in the slot, but still possesses plus size at 6'3". He uses great leverage, quickness, and change-of-direction at the top of his routes to consistently beat defenders over the middle of the field in a similar way that has made Julian Edelman so great. On in-breaking routes, he does a phenomenal job getting his head & hands turned around quickly and naturally catches the ball. He's very crafty with his route running, which is a big plus with a QB that will trust him, but can be a slight negative if his QB prefers timing & staying on-script.

He's also a very willing blocker, which is an underrated trait for slot receivers. It doesn't show up for his fantasy owners, but it should keep him on the field and earn some good graces of his coach & quarterback in the NFL. He can get bottled up for long stretches, but I think that's more of a product of system / route tree - as teams will often squat on his routes in the short-intermediate areas of the field. As he showed against Texas, he has the ability to win over the top with speed, ball-tracking, and making contested catches.

Landing spot and system will be big for Jefferson. If he ends up on a team that will use him primarily as a slot WR and has an outside WR to keep defenses honest, he's going to be a PPR stud. But if for some reason a team tries to deploy him as a boundary WR, I'll have to temper expectations. Overall, I'm very high on him and he's neck & neck with C. Lamb in my WR rankings.

Player Comparison - Keenan Allen

[DJB]

I'm a massive Jefferson fan. Huge catch radius. Incredible routes. I love him and have him as my #3 WR atm.

[Dynos]

Very good post thanks to share!!!

[wickerkat1212]

Where do you all see Jefferson going? Late first round of rookie drafts? I have the 1.07 and that seems like it might be a spot for him.

[Nanananananana]

Where do you all see Jefferson going? Late first round of rookie drafts? I have the 1.07 and that seems like it might be a spot for him.

Way too early to tell, kinda like Deebo last year, he was supposed to be more of a turn guy then landing spot pushed him up to the 1.7-1.9 range in my drafts.

[kmbryant09]

Where do you all see Jefferson going? Late first round of rookie drafts? I have the 1.07 and that seems like it might be a spot for him.

I think the average dynasty player's evaluation on Jefferson will depend largely on his draft capital and landing spot. If he goes in the 1st round to a team like Indianapolis, Denver, New Orleans...I could see him shooting up draft boards and being in play as early as 1.05 (depending on the RB landing spots). If he falls to the 2nd round to a destination that isn't viewed favorable and I think he could be more of an early 2nd round pick in dynasty drafts.

[FantasyFreak]

Where do you all see Jefferson going? Late first round of rookie drafts? I have the 1.07 and that seems like it might be a spot for him.

I think the average dynasty player's evaluation on Jefferson will depend largely on his draft capital and landing spot. If he goes in the 1st round to a team like Indianapolis, Denver, New Orleans...I could see him shooting up draft boards and being in play as early as 1.05 (depending on the RB landing spots). If he falls to the 2nd round to a destination that isn't viewed favorable and I think he could be more of an early 2nd round pick in dynasty drafts.

I don't think he goes in the first. 2nd would be my bet, but combine etc. will determine a lot.