Late season flash in the pan or breakout?

[jman3134]

Anyone have criteria to gauge whether a player is truly breaking out or if it is purely circumstantial and they will move back to the scrap yard for next season? I see a lot of former busts playing well at the moment.

[joeya2001]

Like who?

[BucFanJKE]

Don't worry, Breshad Perriman still sucks.

[Pac_Eddy]

Anyone have criteria to gauge whether a player is truly breaking out or if it is purely circumstantial and they will move back to the scrap yard for next season? I see a lot of former busts playing well at the moment.

If someone had that down, they'd be the King of Fantasy Football.

[Goddard]

Parker is the guy I'd worry about buying into. He's looked really good the last few weeks, but he's really hard to trust. I'm not sure I'd go buying, especially since owners will all of the sudden probably ask for a 1st.

[jman3134]

Parker is the obvious question mark, but there are others playing well on even smaller sample sizes.

'The highest graded player in yesterday’s win against the Lions was WR Laquon Treadwell with a 90.0 overall grade. His third ELITE grade this season and of his career! #SKOL'
https://t.co/ndGc6M1qbq

^^ Given he was wide open on his TD catch, but the broken tackle the other week was solid. His blocking has been good as well. Not ready to call it anything yet, but I am keeping my eye on it.


'#dolphins WR @iaf_1 caught 6/9 targets for 92 yards in miami's 22-21 loss to the jets on sunday. and with injuries to both devante parker and albert wilson, the 23-year old WR stepped up in a big way.

here's a look at isaiah ford's breakout game. #finsup https://t.co/r5BhgFmhPz'

Given, it is the Jets, but the tape looks good on Ford.

Patrick Laird has looked good for stretches. Most of this is just noise, but I am curious if there is a 'rule of thumb' way to sift through it.

[Straycatz2]

Its too hard to trust any of those players with a 1 game sample size and are playing because other top players at the position are hurt.
Parker is definitely a question mark. He has always had the talent, but taken so long to put it all together.
Laird is interesting since Miami has no back. The will probably draft one, but Laird could easily play the White, Cohen,3rd down back role and have value.

Washington is a interesting name. Bust his rookie year and beginning of this year but past 4-5 weeks have been decent. Hes doing well in the slot role but that belongs to juju when hes back.

[MrUbuto]

I use 2 criteria.


"Was he supposed to be good?"(draft pedigree, combine, college, etc)

And

"Is he currently good?"

If you can say yes to both those hes probably the real deal.

Unfortunately due to this I often miss out on guys like phillip lindsey and other low or undrafted guys. I don't mind. I'd rather miss on those guys then trade a 1st for a guy who has 3 stellar weeks only to be out of the league in 18 months

[snaps06]

I use 2 criteria.


"Was he supposed to be good?"(draft pedigree, combine, college, etc)

And

"Is he currently good?"

If you can say yes to both those hes probably the real deal.

Unfortunately due to this I often miss out on guys like phillip lindsey and other low or undrafted guys. I don't mind. I'd rather miss on those guys then trade a 1st for a guy who has 3 stellar weeks only to be out of the league in 18 months

This is how I like to evaluate it, too. Pedigree has an important role in deciding "flash in the pan" or "real deal." I'll use several players that showed flashes at some point this season, and not restrict myself to the end of the season. In my opinion, this is how I would rate them:

Real deal:
1) James Washington - work ethic and improvement all the way through college, just needed a confidence boost. I see him as a WR2 for at least 2-3 seasons. 70% chance of sustained success.
2) AJ Brown - breaking out as a rookie with a competent QB. Boom-bust WR2 with the occasional WR1 week for many seasons. Great as a 3rd WR on a fantasy team. 80% chance of sustained success.
3) Rashaad Penny - Depending on recovery time, if he plays in 2020, I think he takes over the majority of snaps. He looked much more electric with the ball than Carson ever has. 60% chance of sustained success if he plays on 2020, fringe NFL player if he sits all of 2020. Huge year for him with the ACL injury.
4) Gerald Everett - back-end TE1 for several seasons. 90% chance of sustained success.
5) Ryan Tannehill - He's a starting NFL QB. If he starts in 2020, sign me up. 60% chance of 3+ back-end QB1 seasons.

Some hope:
1) Devante Parker - solid pedigree, but lacks work ethic. I give him a 50% chance of future sustained success.
2) Ronald Jones - The offense suits his style. If used properly, maybe he turns it around. 40% chance of sustained future success.
3) Mike Williams - I believe! Elite athlete, massive build, pedigree. 40% chance.
4) Breshad Perriman - Just kidding, he's terrible.

Sell-now while they have value:
1) Bo Scarborough - RB2 at-best on any depth chart barring injury and luck.
2) Patrick Laird - RB2/3 at best on any depth chart barring injury and luck.
3) Breshad Perriman - Just no.
4) Laquon Treadwell (does he have value?) - Overdrafted. Best chance of moving into the category of having some hope.

[Patsfan86]

I got burned on guys like these too much (cough cough Alex Collins and Isaiah Crowell cough cough) so i decided not to do it at all anymore. I wont touch guys that just come on from week 10 and on unless as stated by Ubuto they were supposed to be good. You can also buy guys like this you like in the late offseason for much cheaper. Dont do it now

[jman3134]

I got burned on guys like these too much (cough cough Alex Collins and Isaiah Crowell cough cough) so i decided not to do it at all anymore. I wont touch guys that just come on from week 10 and on unless as stated by Ubuto they were supposed to be good. You can also buy guys like this you like in the late offseason for much cheaper. Dont do it now

Well Crowell flashed early in his first season from what I remember. I remember I picked him and Hurns up as UDFAs and started them for a couple of weeks in redraft. His pedigree was always better because he transferred from an SEC school. Tyreek Hill fell in the draft for similar reasons. My point, I am not sure how you got burned on him because he flashed early in the year. Collins, Justin Forsett - perhaps these were system guys with a great line? (though I will say Collins looked great in his own right most of the time)

Overall, I agree with your buying sentiment. The scrubs I mentioned are all waiver wire spec ads, but I am asking the question on a grander scale so that it has more mass appeal. Also, I am curious about Parker's recent production in particular.

"Was he supposed to be good?"(draft pedigree, combine, college, etc)

And

"Is he currently good?"

If you can say yes to both those hes probably the real deal.

Unfortunately due to this I often miss out on guys like phillip lindsey and other low or undrafted guys. I don't mind. I'd rather miss on those guys then trade a 1st for a guy who has 3 stellar weeks only to be out of the league in 18 months

I appreciate this feedback. My only problem with this is that guys like Treadwell/Parker have day 1 pedigree. They were both supposed to be good, but the tape suggests otherwise. Lindsey flashed early in the year, so we don't have to worry about him.

My problem with speculation of this sort is I find myself being more intrigued due to confirmation bias. I would like to do a deep dive on the hit rates of late season flashes to take a look at the success rate/sustainability. Wondering if anyone has put the time in on this already. If not, maybe I will in the offseason.

[MrUbuto]

Oh maybe I didn't realize the important of the LATE SEASON in your post

So you are asking if we put more value on a guy who balls weeks 14 15 16 over a guy who balls weeks 3 4 5?

Not really. Perhaps I'd have to actually value an early season flash more than a late season flash.

Early in the year you are usually playing against entirely healthy defenses every team is still in it the coaches off season strategies are still a go. Later in the year is a cluster bleep, everyone is hurt or injured some teams have quit off season strategies have gone to hell. It's more likely a guy could just get kind of lucky

[jman3134]

Oh maybe I didn't realize the important of the LATE SEASON in your post

So you are asking if we put more value on a guy who balls weeks 14 15 16 over a guy who balls weeks 3 4 5?

Not really. Perhaps I'd have to actually value an early season flash more than a late season flash.

Early in the year you are usually playing against entirely healthy defenses every team is still in it the coaches off season strategies are still a go. Later in the year is a cluster bleep, everyone is hurt or injured some teams have quit off season strategies have gone to hell. It's more likely a guy could just get kind of lucky

Yeah, I assume an early season breakout has way stronger lasting power than a late season. But, I am interested to see what % of late season breakouts carry over into the following years, and how many fall back to obscurity. I would like to look into this for players with worse draft capital in particular. Most might not receive opportunities initially and flash only after receiving playing time. This might help put some of this analysis into context. Then again, there might be more Keelan Coles out there, but you get the point.

[ericanadian]

I believe in Parker, but at this point, I suspect the price is too high considering the risk and his general value.

[jman3134]

What's the going rate? A third?