Derrick Henry Thread - Is he still King Henry post injury?

[jenkins.math]

Has any team given big money to a RB and been happy with it lately? I think the Titans (or any team) would be stupid to pay big money long term for a RB.

That being said front offices continue to do stupid things every year thinking that it will somehow work out differently here.

[Jigga94]

Has any team given big money to a RB and been happy with it lately? I think the Titans (or any team) would be stupid to pay big money long term for a RB.

That being said front offices continue to do stupid things every year thinking that it will somehow work out differently here.

Considering the top 5 cap hits in 2019 for RB are...
DJ - 9.75M
Gurley - 9.2M
Bell - 9M
LF - 7.5M
Lamar Miller - 7M

...I'd say no. Fournette is the only one that I can semi get behind, but that's a rookie deal. The highest paid non-rookie deals I see as good for teams are James white around 4.5M and Ingram at 3.3M...

2020 numbers
Gurley - 17.5M
Bell - 15.5M
DJ - 14M
Zeke - 10M
Devonte Freeman - 9.5M

Zeke's isn't that bad in comparison honestly; figure that's around 5% of a 200M cap. Or you could draft guys like Cook, Chubb, Mixon, etc and have them for around 2M per year. Only the RB taken in top 10 of drafts are more expensive (Barkley, CMC, LF) and I don't think teams are wise for spending that type of capital either on RB

[dynastyninja]

Has any team given big money to a RB and been happy with it lately? I think the Titans (or any team) would be stupid to pay big money long term for a RB.

That being said front offices continue to do stupid things every year thinking that it will somehow work out differently here.

Considering the top 5 cap hits in 2019 for RB are...
DJ - 9.75M
Gurley - 9.2M
Bell - 9M
LF - 7.5M
Lamar Miller - 7M

...I'd say no. Fournette is the only one that I can semi get behind, but that's a rookie deal. The highest paid non-rookie deals I see as good for teams are James white around 4.5M and Ingram at 3.3M...

2020 numbers
Gurley - 17.5M
Bell - 15.5M
DJ - 14M
Zeke - 10M
Devonte Freeman - 9.5M

Zeke's isn't that bad in comparison honestly; figure that's around 5% of a 200M cap. Or you could draft guys like Cook, Chubb, Mixon, etc and have them for around 2M per year. Only the RB taken in top 10 of drafts are more expensive (Barkley, CMC, LF) and I don't think teams are wise for spending that type of capital either on RB

Just for reference, $10m is ~5% of the salary cap. $15m is ~8%. A good running back can be worth that portion of the cap. Zeke absolutely is.

[Jigga94]

Has any team given big money to a RB and been happy with it lately? I think the Titans (or any team) would be stupid to pay big money long term for a RB.

That being said front offices continue to do stupid things every year thinking that it will somehow work out differently here.

Considering the top 5 cap hits in 2019 for RB are...
DJ - 9.75M
Gurley - 9.2M
Bell - 9M
LF - 7.5M
Lamar Miller - 7M

...I'd say no. Fournette is the only one that I can semi get behind, but that's a rookie deal. The highest paid non-rookie deals I see as good for teams are James white around 4.5M and Ingram at 3.3M...

2020 numbers
Gurley - 17.5M
Bell - 15.5M
DJ - 14M
Zeke - 10M
Devonte Freeman - 9.5M

Zeke's isn't that bad in comparison honestly; figure that's around 5% of a 200M cap. Or you could draft guys like Cook, Chubb, Mixon, etc and have them for around 2M per year. Only the RB taken in top 10 of drafts are more expensive (Barkley, CMC, LF) and I don't think teams are wise for spending that type of capital either on RB

Just for reference, $10m is ~5% of the salary cap. $15m is ~8%. A good running back can be worth that portion of the cap. Zeke absolutely is.

Absolutely. I agree Zeke's deal looks fairly good as long as he can hold it together or their line doesn't deteriorate after they sign... I won't say it lol

Are you willing to pay Gurley or DJ close to 10% of the cap? What about Gordon or LF who have shown injury concerns or had a heavy load when active. I'm just not so sure the risk is worth it most times.

[bjd5211]

Next year isn't part of Zeke's new deal fyi, it's the last year of his rookie deal. The new contract kicks in in 2021.

[Jigga94]

Next year isn't part of Zeke's new deal fyi, it's the last year of his rookie deal. The new contract kicks in in 2021.

Ahh thought that might have been the case. It's structured on a fairly straight line up so from flipping years I didn't really notice. Thanks.

[Cameron Giles]

Has any team given big money to a RB and been happy with it lately? I think the Titans (or any team) would be stupid to pay big money long term for a RB.

That being said front offices continue to do stupid things every year thinking that it will somehow work out differently here.

I don't think Henry will get Top-5 money at his position. There's certainly room for the Titans to get a reasonable contract done.

With that said, Henry is a rare bellcow starting RB who's going to hit free agency with very little mileage. This is going to be his first 300+ touch season of his career, after 4 seasons. I don't see any decline coming. Plus, he's only missed 1 game in 4 seasons.

[jenkins.math]

Has any team given big money to a RB and been happy with it lately? I think the Titans (or any team) would be stupid to pay big money long term for a RB.

That being said front offices continue to do stupid things every year thinking that it will somehow work out differently here.

I don't think Henry will get Top-5 money at his position. There's certainly room for the Titans to get a reasonable contract done.

With that said, Henry is a rare bellcow starting RB who's going to hit free agency with very little mileage. This is going to be his first 300+ touch season of his career, after 4 seasons. I don't see any decline coming. Plus, he's only missed 1 game in 4 seasons.

He had over 400 touches his final season at Bama, but you're right about his NFL career. I would be more than happy giving him a deal like Mark Ingram got. 3 years and 15 million but I don't think there is any way Henry signs that. Devonta Freeman is scheduled to make 9.5 million next year and if I'm Henry's agent I look at that contract and make my floor 10.

[bjd5211]

I remember when DJ was going to age well because of his "lack of mileage".... It's an over rated "stat" and has no real bearing on anything. No one in the league has higher mileage than AP and Gore, and they've been playing very well for their age for a while.

[Lord_Varys]

I remember when DJ was going to age well because of his "lack of mileage".... It's an over rated "stat" and has no real bearing on anything. No one in the league has higher mileage than AP and Gore, and they've been playing very well for their age for a while.

Unlike DJ, Henry has a clean bill of health entering his contract year.

Forget who said it in the Devy thread ... but mileage on a car doesn't matter so long as the maintenance record is clean.

[bjd5211]

Cool, people aren't cars...

[nathanq42]

Dj had a clean bill of health too... Hurt his leg at the end of 2016 when it was wrenched to put his ankle to his head but he was fine by OTAs, and he broke his wrist once, which could happen to anyone really, and it's not a long term compromising injury either

[ArrylT]

I for one would be pretty happy if Derrick Henry could get into the 35-45 reception total range. His targets have been slowly climbing each year (at a snails pace) so I am not certain he'll get that many targets even with a Lewis departure.

One fun fact though - and likely not to continue into Year 5 (although it would be awesome if it did) is that his rushing yardage, total yardage (from scrimmage), Yards per game & Rushing Attempts pet game have increased every year for 4 years straight.

He is just having his FIRST 300+ touch season so not a ton of wear & tear either.

[MrUbuto]

Everyone is mocking a lot of wrs in the first but honestly I'm predicting 4 or 5 rbs in the 1st. Why?

The first 5-7 years of an RB are their moat productive and cheapest.

If I was a GM I would just grab one in the first every 4 years

[PR0v3]

Everyone is mocking a lot of wrs in the first but honestly I'm predicting 4 or 5 rbs in the 1st. Why?

The first 5-7 years of an RB are their moat productive and cheapest.

If I was a GM I would just grab one in the first every 4 years

Ehhh, RB is arguably the least valuable position of all 22 starters. Spending 1/4 1sts on one seems like a bad idea. If I was a GM I don’t think I would ever spend more than 3rd on one lol.