More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

[ravn88]

Going to be such an exciting draft class. I'm curious above all to see who takes the less predictable talents. If guys like Shenault and Reagor are taken by teams with unimaginative staffs, then they will basically drop off my board. If they are taken by coaches who can be trusted to exploit their strengths, then they will be very, very tempting pick-ups.
One cautionary note though is that there don't seem to be very many spectacular landing spots for the top picks. Other than the obvious one of the Chiefs RB, what other great landing spots do people see?
A few that occur to me are:
An early 49ers RB
Texans RB
Cardinals RB
Eagles WR.
We may get some good players landing in initially unpromising spots. We may also have such an influx of RBs and Wrs that some of the guys we have rostered that we think of as safe right now, may see their value plummet after the draft.

Bills WR
Raiders WR
Packers WR
Falcons RB
Jets WR
Bucs RB
Cards WR

A lot of good landing spots IMO.

Maybe og Because Im a Colts fan, but they need some weapons.
And Maybe a QB, im not quite sure of Brisset yet

[Cameron Giles]

Don't like to give away all my deep sleepers, but I don't believe this guy will be come draft time. Gabriel Davis has declared. Junior WR out of UCF.

Are there really sleepers in December?

If you've already done your homework...yes.

[FantasyFreak]

Dane Brugler of the Athletic released his first mock draft yesterday and had Ruggs as the first WR taken and 6 WRs in the first overall. In his order: Ruggs, Jeudy, Lamb, Higgins, Shenault, Smith

Also Taylor was the only RB in the first round.

I was going to say that it would not surprise me if he ends up being the better pro over Jeudy. They are both really good.

[nathanq42]

Dane Brugler of the Athletic released his first mock draft yesterday and had Ruggs as the first WR taken and 6 WRs in the first overall. In his order: Ruggs, Jeudy, Lamb, Higgins, Shenault, Smith

Also Taylor was the only RB in the first round.

I was going to say that it would not surprise me if he ends up being the better pro over Jeudy. They are both really good.

The speed is just such a game breaker... Him and Reagor will be fun to see run the forty, I reckon love 4.3s - high 4.2s for either

[bjd5211]

Ya, a lot of people are down on Reagor right now, but I bet the combine shoots him right back into the mix of the 1st round conversation in the NFL Draft, and mid 1st round in fantasy.

[Cameron Giles]

Jeudy is such a complete WR; he just doesn't have the breakaway speed that Ruggs does. On the other hand, Ruggs lacks quite a few things Jeudy has in terms of technical ability at the position.

To me, Jeudy is still far and away the best player available.

[stoneghost28]

I'm still astonished that some view Swift ahead of Taylor. What has Swift done that's been more impressive than Taylor this season?

For me it's an extreme distrust of Wisconsin RB's based on decades worth of busts. I distrust RB's that pile up yards behind their Hulking Mega-Big Boy OL's. Most of them have turned out to be frauds. Until Gordon, by and large it was Michael Bennett, and not much else in the 20 years I have played. You've had Brent Moss, Terrell Fletcher, Ron Dayne, Brian Calhoun, Corey Clement, Anthony Davis, lesser guys like PJ Hill and John Clay, and there's Montee Ball as well. On the hits list you've got Michael Bennett, Melvin Gordon, and James White, and that's pretty much it. Wisconsin's had an uninterrupted chain of highly productive backs for the better part of 25 years, but impact backs at the NFL level have been limited to Bennett, and Gordon as bell cow's, and then White as a nice satellite option. The rest have been busts, or haven't made it that far, or been at best very peripheral. To me, watching, it always seemed as if they benefited from playing behind epic road grader OL's that pancaked slow and unathletic Big-10 defenses, leading to just ridiculous numbers. In the same way people are sketchy with QB and WR production in the Big-12, I'm sketchy with Wisconsin RB's and playmakers in general in the Big-10 (other than Ohio State). Just don't tend to trust the #'s.

Taylor clearly stands out, like crazy, amongst these RB's at Wisconsin, and I'll be surprised if he goes the way of Montee Ball and Ron Dayne. He just seems way more explosive, but both those guys were seen as can't miss by a lot of naive evaluators a decade and two decades ago respectively. I'm still a bit concerned about him because of that. I can trust Swift because he plays in a conference loaded with mega athletes, the type he'll see at the next level, and he plays like he belongs. Can't be sure about that when it comes to Taylor.

So I do take a closer look at:

2017:
19-132-0 vs Michigan
15-41-0 vs Ohio State
26-130-0 vs Miami

2018:
17-101-0 vs Michigan
20-185-1 vs Penn State
27-205-1 vs Miami

2019:
23-203-2 vs Michigan
20-52-0 vs Ohio State

I don't know about you but I find it pretty alarming that he's not piling up anything against Ohio State. In his two games against Ohio State he's got a 35-93-0 line. Yeah he killed Michigan, who also have produced plenty of NFL day 1 and day 2 defensive prospects that he ran all over, and Miami still has a handful of players and he played well against them, ditto Penn State, but none of them are close to the caliber of defenders he faced when he played Ohio State, and he was useless in both of those guys. It doesn't define them, most RB's look like garbage against Ohio State, most teams do, but still, he didn't show anything against them. So am I concerned? Yes. Wisconsin has a god awful track record when it comes to producing elite prospects that succeed in the NFL as bell cow's. They've basically produced two in the past 25 years, and quite a few people (including me), are not as sold on Gordon as most seem to be (I don't think he's bad, I just don't think he's great).

So color me concerned. My focus right now is in trying to figure out who actually is the best prospect, and the top tier 1 and tier 2 guys because honestly, even w/all the quality, figuring out where they all belong is damn difficult. I don't understand the issues people have with Dobbins, I think Cam Akers could be WAY better than expected, I have this weird aversion to Etienne that doesn't make any sense and isn't logical, the lack of touches and market share for Swift bothers me. I just wish there was better clarity. There isn't. There's six or seven RB's I like better than all the RB's in the '19 class, and I love that, I just would like to have a better idea of how to tier them out.

Right now, it's damn tempting to think about trading down. I'm going to have a ton of picks in the top 6 this year because of trades, and 4 productive struggle tank jobs that earned me very high picks. Looking at these guys, I'm super tempted to try to work deals to move down from 1.01, 1.02 type slots, to 1.05-1.06.

[ravn88]

Right now, it's damn tempting to think about trading down. I'm going to have a ton of picks in the top 6 this year because of trades, and 4 productive struggle tank jobs that earned me very high picks.
Looking at these guys, I'm super tempted to try to work deals to move down from 1.01, 1.02 type slots, to 1.05-1.06.


Just wait until rookie fever kicks in.
Last year I traded the 1.02 for the 1.03 & 1.04 in a SF

[Lord_Varys]

How are people feeling after Dobbins killed Michigan
4 TDs crazy.

Is he not near tier 1 ?

Disclaimer: I'm an OSU homer.

I think we care too much about college production.

College production is important, don't get me wrong. I just think that we stare too much at it sometimes.

I thought the same thing when people brushed off Terry McLaurin, because I saw a stud who produced up to the opportunity given to him (not a ton).

And I think the same thing now when people are inflating JK Dobbins based on the opportunity given to him (a megaton).

I have only been doing Devy Dynasty for about 3 years and have a lot to learn. Other people who value college production higher may be more right than I am. But I'm just going to go on what I see...

And what I see is a 3-down running back, who is not a tier-1 stud RB1 like Jonathan Taylor or D'Andre Swift.

David Montgomery was knocked because he lacked explosion, and rightfully so. And while I think Dobbins is more explosive than Montgomery, I still see that as a dimension that he lacks which will limit his ceiling in the NFL.

So when I see Dobbins racking up gigantic stats, like 4 touchdowns against Michigan, I try to pause and think a little deeper. When people see that Dobbins out-rushed Taylor in their last head-to-head matchup, and try to take that as evidence or even proof that Dobbins is better than Taylor, I try to pump the breaks on that assessment. There are sooo many other factors that cause the 4 TDs vs Michigan, or that cause Dobbins to out rush Taylor when Ohio State plays Wisconsin, and I always try my best to account for those factors when I'm evaluating prospects. Some of those factors: the volume he gets, the OL he plays for, the offense he plays on, the scheme, the QB rushing ability opening up lanes ... and yes, some of those factors include his vision, balance, agility, which are all fantastic.

I still love Dobbins. I still have him behind Etienne and Akers personally, despite the fact that I think he's improved a lot as a running back this year.

[stoneghost28]

I'm still astonished that some view Swift ahead of Taylor. What has Swift done that's been more impressive than Taylor this season?

I like Swift's style better. He appears to be a pretty dynamic athlete. He's got loose hips and a lot of wiggle and shake, he's got good change of direction and burst, and is an excellent receiver. I'm pretty confident he has the type of game that translates to NFL/fantasy success.

Taylor, I haven't seen as much of, but from what I have seen he appears to be more of a speed/power guy. I have more concern about how he projects. Is he going to make guys miss consistently? If not, he's gonna have to be a power guy. If he's gonna be a power guy, does he have homerun speed? I don't know, but if he's a power guy without homerun speed then I'm concerned. If he blows away the combine though, then he's a no brainer, because great athletic testing with that production seems like a can't miss.

I really agree w/the last point. With tape focused people, it may just be a cherry on top, but for me, the combine alongside the marketshare production #'s, breakout age, that sorta thing are going to be the most decisive pieces for me. So in that sense, Taylor can still snag 1.01, and I would argue that if Taylor is the 1.02, is it really that big of drop in a RB class like this? Also worth noting that after disappointing in some big games last year, a guy like Dobbins has also had a monster counting stats year and unlike Taylor, hasn't had any dips in big games (I'll grant, Taylor's only really had the one bad game against a quality side, but Dobbins has showed up huge in all 3 big Ohio State games and Taylor was largely his least effective self against Minnesota, and Ohio State (was huge against Michigan though)).

[stoneghost28]

I absolutely love him. If I add him to my main dynasty team with Chubb in it, I'll have to be rethinking the branding potential...

"Chuba Chubb Chubb"

In all seriousness I think Chuba is fairly secured as RB4 for me at the top of RB tier 2 (him, Akers, Etienne)

He's a liability in pass protection, and is running through wide open holes against weak defenses. Dude's got some jets but I don't think he projects as a bell cow potential in the NFL. Don't know how you could put him ahead of Swift, Taylor, Dobbins, Akers, or Etienne. I've even got him behind a couple others -- Hill and Benjamin.

Kinda reminds me of how utterly useless so many highlight videos are. If you just want to get a look at a player, throw up highlights, and all you see with running backs is usually one beautifully blocked and executed play after another, learning absolutely nothing other than that player isn't as blind/dunderheaded as Kalen Ballage, if nothing else. Just really annoying.

[nathanq42]

"Chuba Chubb Chubb"

In all seriousness I think Chuba is fairly secured as RB4 for me at the top of RB tier 2 (him, Akers, Etienne)

He's a liability in pass protection, and is running through wide open holes against weak defenses. Dude's got some jets but I don't think he projects as a bell cow potential in the NFL. Don't know how you could put him ahead of Swift, Taylor, Dobbins, Akers, or Etienne. I've even got him behind a couple others -- Hill and Benjamin.

Kinda reminds me of how utterly useless so many highlight videos are. If you just want to get a look at a player, throw up highlights, and all you see with running backs is usually one beautifully blocked and executed play after another, learning absolutely nothing other than that player isn't as blind/dunderheaded as Kalen Ballage, if nothing else. Just really annoying.

Yeah looking back not my finest hour... Very knee jerk to a short cut up and I had just found out he is Canadian.... yuppppppp..... He is mid tier 3 for me after looking into some of the other Rbs this year... Early to mid second round pick for me

[stoneghost28]

Yeah. I like him, but I think he's overrated by some. Being the unquestioned 1.01 in a tier of his own I am just not on board with.

It’s not like he’s losing share to a bunch of scrubs ... Ruggs is likely a first rounder, Smith is probably a Top 3 round guy, and who knows with Waddle ... he could be a first round pick in 2021. Jeudy is often comped with Julio, but there was no where near the amount of talent at WR in Julio’s final year.

Whoever made that comp, it's a poor one IMO. Jeudy isn't nearly the athlete or size of Julio. Jeudy is about 6 foot and 190 pounds, and not as fast as JJ. I don't think his ceiling is Julio. I said it before, and I'll say it again, I think that Jeudy is a good player, but even more recent Alabama WR Amari Cooper was the better prospect compared to Jeudy for me. I haven't seen anything since I made that statement to think otherwise. I don't think Jeudy is locked and loaded 1.01 in this class. I think he can be a fine NFL WR, though. He's not some once every 5 or 10 year player or anything. In saying that, I'd love to see him in Silver and Black. Raiders need a WR like him.

I just want to approach this draft like '17, Pile up RB's early, then try to steal values like Godwin (who I did steal all over the place) and Juju (who I missed nearly everywhere) later.

I just don't want any part of any WR in the top 6. If that's what I'm looking at, I'm trading down. I like way too many RB's, I'd rather try and get a RB, then try to trade for 75-90% of the 2020 rookie draft cost to get some of those WR's in '21 if possible (it is sometimes), or '22 (when the slip in value tends to take a bit of effect).

[Hottoddies]

How are people feeling after Dobbins killed Michigan
4 TDs crazy.

Is he not near tier 1 ?

Disclaimer: I'm an OSU homer.

I think we care too much about college production.

College production is important, don't get me wrong. I just think that we stare too much at it sometimes.

I thought the same thing when people brushed off Terry McLaurin, because I saw a stud who produced up to the opportunity given to him (not a ton).

And I think the same thing now when people are inflating JK Dobbins based on the opportunity given to him (a megaton).

I have only been doing Devy Dynasty for about 3 years and have a lot to learn. Other people who value college production higher may be more right than I am. But I'm just going to go on what I see...

And what I see is a 3-down running back, who is not a tier-1 stud RB1 like Jonathan Taylor or D'Andre Swift.

David Montgomery was knocked because he lacked explosion, and rightfully so. And while I think Dobbins is more explosive than Montgomery, I still see that as a dimension that he lacks which will limit his ceiling in the NFL.

So when I see Dobbins racking up gigantic stats, like 4 touchdowns against Michigan, I try to pause and think a little deeper. When people see that Dobbins out-rushed Taylor in their last head-to-head matchup, and try to take that as evidence or even proof that Dobbins is better than Taylor, I try to pump the breaks on that assessment. There are sooo many other factors that cause the 4 TDs vs Michigan, or that cause Dobbins to out rush Taylor when Ohio State plays Wisconsin, and I always try my best to account for those factors when I'm evaluating prospects. Some of those factors: the volume he gets, the OL he plays for, the offense he plays on, the scheme, the QB rushing ability opening up lanes ... and yes, some of those factors include his vision, balance, agility, which are all fantastic.

I still love Dobbins. I still have him behind Etienne and Akers personally, despite the fact that I think he's improved a lot as a running back this year.

I think you raise a number of valid points. I mostly ignore college production stats knowing that they can be hyper inflated depending on level of competition and supporting cast. Dobbins and Taylor have the benefit of running behind great offensive lines whereas a guy like Akers has to deal with a subpar supporting cast. Context is everything. How a prospect produces is vastly more important than what he produces.

[stoneghost28]

Ruggs will prolly be a second round pick and I won't be surprised if Smith is picked ahead of him. If Al Davis was still around Ruggs would be a top 5 pick. Smith is a more complete WR compared to Ruggs imo. And yeah as Freak stated the Julio comp is terrible for Jeudy and I like him a ton but he's the #2 WR in this class imo.

I hope you guys are right, because best case scenario I end up with 1.03 ... I’ll be doing backflips if I get Jeudy at 1.03.

I think that there is a good chance 1.03 lands Jeudy in most leagues, with the RB's available. There are multiple bell cow type players available, and if a RB goes to the Chiefs in the first 3 rounds not named Swift or Taylor, I could see that person jumping into the mix of the top 3. Dobbins going off against Michigan today. The RB class has 3 legit Bell Cow backs with Swift, Taylor and Dobbins, and we all know how rookie drafts usually go when that is the case. Landing spots and draft capital will all play a role, of course.

That's gonna put me in a quandry in a few leagues (and I think there's a chance if you're right, there are a few guys, like Dobbins, Hubbard, and Akers, who if they blew the combine out of the water, would elevate themselves ahead of the WR's). I've got the 1.03 in one of my 11 dynasty leagues, but I also have 5 picks in the lottery across two leagues (could fall anywhere between 1.01-1.6). While I'll appreciate climbing up to 1.03 with some of those picks, it would be a huge potential issue, as I have no interest in Jeudy or any WR at 1.03. They way I build my dynasty teams is pretty straight forward, load up on WR's in the start up, draft speculative young TE prospects, and one great young one if possible, stream QB's until I think my team is about to achieve lift off at which point I trade for vets like Ryan and Rivers, and draft young one's if it's a good QB crop. In terms of RB, in start ups unless i can land a very young stud at value, I sit out the top 15-20 RB's basically because in my model, my team's tend to lift off in year 3, and that will waste 2 years of a short RB prime unless I trade the player. As a result, in rookie drafts, I target RB's in the top 4-6, and then open up the rest of the draft to WR's (rest of round 1) and QB's and TE's (Round 2 and beyond), and the only time I really fail to execute this model is if there's something wrong with the rookie class. In 2016 I traded down and out in my first two dynasty leagues across the board trying to pick up 2017 and 2018 draft capital, in 2019 I HATED the RB's, and so other than going after Miles Sanders, I was drafting WR's in round and 2, and WR's/TE's in rounds 3 and 4.

So for me, Jeudy is a major issue. The '16 rookie class obliterated you if you used a top 3 or 4 pick on a WR, the '17 class gut punched you again, in '18 it was a great move, and in '19 again it was unhelpful (Harry got hurt, AJ Brown had a breakout season ruined by the total incompetence of the Tennessee passing game), trading out was most advisable, and while my brother did that after I advised him to, I tended to just go after Harry, AJ Brown and Sanders again and and again as they fell and only traded out if I couldn't get one of the three (I've basically felt Harry, Brown and Sanders are top 35-50 players in waiting if they can get things straightened out (a QB after Brady, a competent QB in Tennessee, the Philly staff getting it's head out and giving the running back job to Sanders period).

At this point the only WR's that you might have top 6 that have paid off handsomely period since I had my first rookie draft in '16 were DJ Moore, and maybe Michael Thomas (In my experience, he tended to go off the board between 1.06-1.08 in most '16 rookie drafts). Other than those two, every other guy that went early hasn't really delivered for you up to expectations. Coleman, Doctson, Treadwell, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, DJ Moore, N'Keal Harry, and AJ Brown seem to be, more or less, the WR selections that tended to go top 5-6 since '16, and of all of them, only Moore has full delivered on expectations. Maybe AJ Brown, just because of how wildly divergent his draft slotting was depending upon when your rookie draft went (anywhere from 1.4-2.01 in my 11 drafts). W/that kind of track record, with people getting RB hungry again after the '09-'14 drought ended and the '15, '17, and '18 classes delivered, RB's just carry A LOT more trade value early on, and half a much, much higher propensity to start delivering on the capital you spent from opening kickoff of the season as compared to the WR's.

It's hard to see why you'd take any WR ahead of four-six of these RB's to me. Why would you?

Also interesting to think of potential RB destinations:
Green Bay: They seem totally unwilling to commit to Jones.
Detroit: Kerryon injured in back to back years.
Tampa Bay: They sticking w/Jones?
Atlanta: They've got nobody, and Freeman is done.
Seattle: Would they?
LAR: What do they think of Henderson?
Arizona: What do they think of Edmonds?
Miami: Horror show RB's
Buffalo: They okay with Devin?
NYJ: When do they want to move on from Bell?
N.E.: Need to admit Michel was a mistake.
Pittsburgh: I keep hearing people suggesting they aren't happy w/their options.
Houston: Plenty of needs.
San Diego: Gordon's gone.
Kansas City; Why not draft a stud?

Teams in bold are the teams I think are most likely to go after a guy. If I were to guess at the top 6 RB's destinations, I'd go with:
Houston
Kansas City
Miami
New York Jets
Atlanta
San Diego

those teams strike me as 100% interested in grabbing an RB on day 1 or day 2. San Diego, Atlanta, and Miami are virtual locks. All three have nothing worthwhile at the positions, then you add Houston and Hyde, I think they will go after a RB, the problem is draft capital, I think Kansas city pulls the trigger because RB is a big part of Andy Reid offenses and they have garbage right now, while the Jets coaching staff didn't want Bell to begin with, and I could easily see them trying to draft his replacement for '21, and you just have to deal with Bell being there for a year (need to look up Bell and Freeman's contracts for those two teams).