Kerryon Johnson Value

[FantasyFreak]

He looked special last year.

It's actually interesting that you mentioned Cook because Cook and Kerryon were the two guys I targeted a lot this year based on their game tape from 2018 looking a lot better than their value dictated.

Kerryon looked completely different this year. I'm not really sure what happened there.

We have a different definition of special, then. I think he looked really good, but he lacks any elite trait. He looked good in a lot of areas to me, last year, but I did not see a high ceiling with him. I don't think he ever had top 5 back potential.

I think the argument he could be would be based more on his situation as the lead back of a Bevell/Patricia offense. Even if he's not top 5 in value or production, he'd still be a solid start, even if not an RB1.

So, basically, if he cedes touches to Scarborough or another interior back , what would his floor be in value/production?

I was just commenting on why Dalvin held some value after 2 years, as he had elite traits and top 5 upside. I'd say KJ is worth an early 2nd, vs this class. That's the most I'd pay, anyway. Tough to give up a first with so many good looking backs, receivers in this draft.

[Servo]

Two years, two knee issues...shoulder issues in college.

You gotta think that DET brings in some competition...Kerryon's value is somewhere in the second round but I don't even know if I'd want to trade for him. When a late first or early second could get me some of the new RB's.

[Adam_172]

I'd buy him for a late-1st still.

[jenkins.math]

With the way Scarbrough is playing I think they will just roll with what they already have at RB. They have more glaring issues than RB.

[Titans95]

We have a different definition of special, then. I think he looked really good, but he lacks any elite trait. He looked good in a lot of areas to me, last year, but I did not see a high ceiling with him. I don't think he ever had top 5 back potential.

I think the argument he could be would be based more on his situation as the lead back of a Bevell/Patricia offense. Even if he's not top 5 in value or production, he'd still be a solid start, even if not an RB1.

So, basically, if he cedes touches to Scarborough or another interior back , what would his floor be in value/production?

I was just commenting on why Dalvin held some value after 2 years, as he had elite traits and top 5 upside. I'd say KJ is worth an early 2nd, vs this class. That's the most I'd pay, anyway. Tough to give up a first with so many good looking backs, receivers in this draft.

Not all late 1sts are created equal and this year late 1sts look to have the same value as early firsts from 2019. I like KJ a lot but he's clearly never going to be a workhorse and has injury concerns, hard to give up anything higher then an early 2nd round pick for him. I could still see him sneaking into the top 12 RB's on a given year with high efficiency but it won't be a regular occurrence throughout his career IMO. Guys like Kamara doing that are extreme outlier's not the norm.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Bo Scarborough has had some good games since Kerryon went down. Nothing crazy electric, but getting a steady 4 YPC/g with backup and 3rd string QBs in is impressive. Does Scarborough affect Kerryon's touches/production/value next year? Is Patricia an RB platoon guy?

I feel like we already know the answer to this. Patricia clearly prefers a RBBC from his time in NE. He even went as far as signing LeGarrette Blount a couple of years ago. I'd equate Scarbrough to Blount (1st and 2nd down grinder / goal line plunges), Kerryon to Dion Lewis (best all-around RB but oft-injured), and McKissic to James White (primarily a receiving back but will get a couple of carries here and there).

I've never been super high on Kerryon and expected a committee this year in DET even if Kerryon had stayed healthy. Personally, I don't own Kerryon anywhere, but if I did, I'd sell for any 1st, maybe even an early 2nd.

[jimmycricket14]

Just activated off IR for 2 meaningless games. Seems like an odd move. Do you lean more towards the positive or negative spin on this?

Positive spin: Team sees him as one of their best (injured) offensive players and is not happy with their current RB situation, so want to get him back in the mix even if the season is lost.

Negative spin: Team is unsure about Kerryon going forward. Want to see more of him this season in order to make a decision on what caliber player they bring in/draft next year. So he is playing for his job these last few weeks.

[kadun2]

Just activated off IR for 2 meaningless games. Seems like an odd move. Do you lean more towards the positive or negative spin on this?

Positive spin: Team sees him as one of their best (injured) offensive players and is not happy with their current RB situation, so want to get him back in the mix even if the season is lost.

Negative spin: Team is unsure about Kerryon going forward. Want to see more of him this season in order to make a decision on what caliber player they bring in/draft next year. So he is playing for his job these last few weeks.

I think it’s your negative spin but I don’t see it as that bad. They may roll him out there the last few games as a “workhorse” to get one more good look before making a decision which way to go next year. I think he has at least the COP role next year though, which might be better for him anyway, to stay healthy.

[tominansky]

Just activated off IR for 2 meaningless games. Seems like an odd move. Do you lean more towards the positive or negative spin on this?

Positive spin: Team sees him as one of their best (injured) offensive players and is not happy with their current RB situation, so want to get him back in the mix even if the season is lost.

Negative spin: Team is unsure about Kerryon going forward. Want to see more of him this season in order to make a decision on what caliber player they bring in/draft next year. So he is playing for his job these last few weeks.

I think it’s your negative spin but I don’t see it as that bad. They may roll him out there the last few games as a “workhorse” to get one more good look before making a decision which way to go next year. I think he has at least the COP role next year though, which might be better for him anyway, to stay healthy.

Giving a man fresh off of injury/IR two games to prove his worth doesn't make any sense... Definitely going to be some rust after not playing football for awhile and they've already seen what he can do when he's healthy so I'd lean more towards the positive spin. Give your best players the ball and give your fans a better on field product, even in a lost season.

[kadun2]

Just activated off IR for 2 meaningless games. Seems like an odd move. Do you lean more towards the positive or negative spin on this?

Positive spin: Team sees him as one of their best (injured) offensive players and is not happy with their current RB situation, so want to get him back in the mix even if the season is lost.

Negative spin: Team is unsure about Kerryon going forward. Want to see more of him this season in order to make a decision on what caliber player they bring in/draft next year. So he is playing for his job these last few weeks.

I think it’s your negative spin but I don’t see it as that bad. They may roll him out there the last few games as a “workhorse” to get one more good look before making a decision which way to go next year. I think he has at least the COP role next year though, which might be better for him anyway, to stay healthy.

Giving a man fresh off of injury/IR two games to prove his worth doesn't make any sense... Definitely going to be some rust after not playing football for awhile and they've already seen what he can do when he's healthy so I'd lean more towards the positive spin. Give your best players the ball and give your fans a better on field product, even in a lost season.

I truly hope you’re right and they don’t actually activate him this year. If they do I was thinking they want to get some kind of look at him otherwise there would be no reason to bring him off IR. The positive spin scenario works for me though.

[Titans95]

I think it’s your negative spin but I don’t see it as that bad. They may roll him out there the last few games as a “workhorse” to get one more good look before making a decision which way to go next year. I think he has at least the COP role next year though, which might be better for him anyway, to stay healthy.

Giving a man fresh off of injury/IR two games to prove his worth doesn't make any sense... Definitely going to be some rust after not playing football for awhile and they've already seen what he can do when he's healthy so I'd lean more towards the positive spin. Give your best players the ball and give your fans a better on field product, even in a lost season.

I truly hope you’re right and they don’t actually activate him this year. If they do I was thinking they want to get some kind of look at him otherwise there would be no reason to bring him off IR. The positive spin scenario works for me though.

I think unaffiliated fans make logical conclusions like "why activate your starting RB off IR for the last 2 games when the season is lost, must be a specific reason" but the reality is that NFL teams are in the business of selling tickets, why don't you think they haven't completely shut down Stafford? Because he sells tickets and so does Kerryon to an extent. The front office and owners are concerned with winning football but that is only because that increases their revenue and profits which is their primary goal. Why else would a team roll with Fitzpatrick instead of letting Rosen suck it up the whole season to at least see if he can turn it around? Because the on field product is better for the dolphins when Fitzpatrick is in the game and it makes it more interesting for the fans to buy tickets and go to the game.

[FantasyFreak]

Giving a man fresh off of injury/IR two games to prove his worth doesn't make any sense... Definitely going to be some rust after not playing football for awhile and they've already seen what he can do when he's healthy so I'd lean more towards the positive spin. Give your best players the ball and give your fans a better on field product, even in a lost season.

I truly hope you’re right and they don’t actually activate him this year. If they do I was thinking they want to get some kind of look at him otherwise there would be no reason to bring him off IR. The positive spin scenario works for me though.

I think unaffiliated fans make logical conclusions like "why activate your starting RB off IR for the last 2 games when the season is lost, must be a specific reason" but the reality is that NFL teams are in the business of selling tickets, why don't you think they haven't completely shut down Stafford? Because he sells tickets and so does Kerryon to an extent. The front office and owners are concerned with winning football but that is only because that increases their revenue and profits which is their primary goal. Why else would a team roll with Fitzpatrick instead of letting Rosen suck it up the whole season to at least see if he can turn it around? Because the on field product is better for the dolphins when Fitzpatrick is in the game and it makes it more interesting for the fans to buy tickets and go to the game.

Perhaps they are trying to see if he can equal Guice's IR numbers over the first 2 years. Guice has gone to IR 3 times in 2 years (Is that a record?), and KJ needs one more trip to tie him.

In all seriousness, I don't think people will go to the final Lions games because KJ is back. That isn't going to sway people one way or the other.

[ArrylT]

Well Stafford gets shut down but Kerryon may come back? *shrugs*

[jman3134]

What this suggests is that the Lions are very impressed by Scarbrough and KJ wants to keep his job. KJ alluded to this fact when asked.