Kerryon Johnson Value

[kvothe34]

It sounds like the injury isn't terribly serious, so I don't think this drops his long term value terribly. He was previously worth a high first (imo) and now he's likely worth a mid to late first until he comes back and shows he's healthy. He'll probably be a mid/high first again after that. The real downside is that he's going to have the "injury-prone" tag moving forward so everyone is going to want a discount even if he stays healthy for a year. The upside is he's still very young, so if he can get and stay healthy, he should have several productive years ahead of him. This just kinda cements what kerryon doubters were saying this offseason, which is that he will never be a true 3 down feature back, so his upside is likely capped at a low-end RB1 at best.

[Ice]

My view on this player hasn’t changed. Pretty good player with durability concerns due to style.

Not the type of player I would buy but probably worth a low 1st to some.

[FantasyFreak]

It sounds like the injury isn't terribly serious, so I don't think this drops his long term value terribly. He was previously worth a high first (imo) and now he's likely worth a mid to late first until he comes back and shows he's healthy. He'll probably be a mid/high first again after that. The real downside is that he's going to have the "injury-prone" tag moving forward so everyone is going to want a discount even if he stays healthy for a year. The upside is he's still very young, so if he can get and stay healthy, he should have several productive years ahead of him. This just kinda cements what kerryon doubters were saying this offseason, which is that he will never be a true 3 down feature back, so his upside is likely capped at a low-end RB1 at best.

That won't happen this year, though, so with the steam building in the 2020 class, I can't imagine he gets back to early first value any time soon. I was thinking he's a late first in the 2020 class, and I'm not sure I'd pay it right now, the more I delve into this class. I was thinking of sending an offer out, but 2 straight years of IR for knee injuries and his play was not what it was last year, either. Has me wondering if it's even worth it.

I can't find what the injury was. Was it a meniscus? He had surgery, but I can't find the details other than surgery and IR.

[Shoreline Steamers]

I can't find what the injury was. Was it a meniscus? He had surgery, but I can't find the details other than surgery and IR.

I don't think they ever officially announced what the exact nature of his injury was. But based on surgery, and the statement from the team that he could be a candidate to return, I'd guess it was a meniscus repair. Basically sounds like the timeframe Guice was going to be out, and he's a possible candidate to return as well (Week 11 for Guice I believe, Week 16 for Johnson).

Just trying to read the tea leaves a little. It sure sounds similar though. If the Lions are in a playoff hunt, I'd bet we haven't seen the last of Johnson in 2019.

[Titans95]

It sounds like the injury isn't terribly serious, so I don't think this drops his long term value terribly. He was previously worth a high first (imo) and now he's likely worth a mid to late first until he comes back and shows he's healthy. He'll probably be a mid/high first again after that. The real downside is that he's going to have the "injury-prone" tag moving forward so everyone is going to want a discount even if he stays healthy for a year. The upside is he's still very young, so if he can get and stay healthy, he should have several productive years ahead of him. This just kinda cements what kerryon doubters were saying this offseason, which is that he will never be a true 3 down feature back, so his upside is likely capped at a low-end RB1 at best.

That won't happen this year, though, so with the steam building in the 2020 class, I can't imagine he gets back to early first value any time soon. I was thinking he's a late first in the 2020 class, and I'm not sure I'd pay it right now, the more I delve into this class. I was thinking of sending an offer out, but 2 straight years of IR for knee injuries and his play was not what it was last year, either. Has me wondering if it's even worth it.

I can't find what the injury was. Was it a meniscus? He had surgery, but I can't find the details other than surgery and IR.

Lets not forget he has a pretty extensive history in college of constantly being banged up. I like Johnson a lot but 2 seasons in a row going to IR and all the talk about limiting his workload going into the season....I think its very safe to assume he'll be in a committee of 60/40-50/50 AT BEST next season. That's not worth an early 1st round rookie pick IMO especially 2020 class.

[Jigga94]

I traded the 1.01 for him to start the season as I was high on him. That one still hurts, but I did get out today for decent value

[Cameron Giles]

My view on this player hasn’t changed. Pretty good player with durability concerns due to style.

Not the type of player I would buy but probably worth a low 1st to some.

I'd buy for a late 1st on a contender, though I doubt any owner who believes in him has incentive to do that.

Ultimately, I'd look elsewhere first. The Lions not involving him in the receiving game much is a big red flag. I'm sure they'll be looking for their next passing down back in the offseason (Kenyan Drake).

[Pullo Vision]

Bo Scarborough has had some good games since Kerryon went down. Nothing crazy electric, but getting a steady 4 YPC/g with backup and 3rd string QBs in is impressive. Does Scarborough affect Kerryon's touches/production/value next year? Is Patricia an RB platoon guy?

[Lincoln18]

Legit possibility. He’s been good. He’s played well with the opportunity.

[Pac_Eddy]

Both the Bears and Lions would be wise to run the ball more. Take some pressure off of the QB, control the clock. Montgomery is better than getting 12 touches per game.

[FantasyFreak]

Bo Scarborough has had some good games since Kerryon went down. Nothing crazy electric, but getting a steady 4 YPC/g with backup and 3rd string QBs in is impressive. Does Scarborough affect Kerryon's touches/production/value next year? Is Patricia an RB platoon guy?

Kerryon isn't anything special. I don't know what the contract for Bo is, but I do know that McKissic is a better receiving back than KJ. As for KJ's value, I don't see it being anything more than an early 2nd, late first at best in this upcoming class. 2 straight years of extended missed time, and he just doesn't have that elite upside to maintain the same type of value as someone like Dalvin Cook, who did through 2 years. KJ will still have a role, and most likely a significant one, but I think the idea of him being some 3 down bell cow is out the window at this point.

[Jigga94]

I'm glad I "sold low" on him after the injury. I think his value has gotten lower or will get lower in the future.

[Vcize]

Bo Scarborough has had some good games since Kerryon went down. Nothing crazy electric, but getting a steady 4 YPC/g with backup and 3rd string QBs in is impressive. Does Scarborough affect Kerryon's touches/production/value next year? Is Patricia an RB platoon guy?

Kerryon isn't anything special. I don't know what the contract for Bo is, but I do know that McKissic is a better receiving back than KJ. As for KJ's value, I don't see it being anything more than an early 2nd, late first at best in this upcoming class. 2 straight years of extended missed time, and he just doesn't have that elite upside to maintain the same type of value as someone like Dalvin Cook, who did through 2 years.

He looked special last year.

It's actually interesting that you mentioned Cook because Cook and Kerryon were the two guys I targeted a lot this year based on their game tape from 2018 looking a lot better than their value dictated.

Kerryon looked completely different this year. I'm not really sure what happened there.

[FantasyFreak]

Bo Scarborough has had some good games since Kerryon went down. Nothing crazy electric, but getting a steady 4 YPC/g with backup and 3rd string QBs in is impressive. Does Scarborough affect Kerryon's touches/production/value next year? Is Patricia an RB platoon guy?

Kerryon isn't anything special. I don't know what the contract for Bo is, but I do know that McKissic is a better receiving back than KJ. As for KJ's value, I don't see it being anything more than an early 2nd, late first at best in this upcoming class. 2 straight years of extended missed time, and he just doesn't have that elite upside to maintain the same type of value as someone like Dalvin Cook, who did through 2 years.

He looked special last year.

It's actually interesting that you mentioned Cook because Cook and Kerryon were the two guys I targeted a lot this year based on their game tape from 2018 looking a lot better than their value dictated.

Kerryon looked completely different this year. I'm not really sure what happened there.

We have a different definition of special, then. I think he looked really good, but he lacks any elite trait. He looked good in a lot of areas to me, last year, but I did not see a high ceiling with him. I don't think he ever had top 5 back potential.

[Pullo Vision]

Kerryon isn't anything special. I don't know what the contract for Bo is, but I do know that McKissic is a better receiving back than KJ. As for KJ's value, I don't see it being anything more than an early 2nd, late first at best in this upcoming class. 2 straight years of extended missed time, and he just doesn't have that elite upside to maintain the same type of value as someone like Dalvin Cook, who did through 2 years.

He looked special last year.

It's actually interesting that you mentioned Cook because Cook and Kerryon were the two guys I targeted a lot this year based on their game tape from 2018 looking a lot better than their value dictated.

Kerryon looked completely different this year. I'm not really sure what happened there.

We have a different definition of special, then. I think he looked really good, but he lacks any elite trait. He looked good in a lot of areas to me, last year, but I did not see a high ceiling with him. I don't think he ever had top 5 back potential.

I think the argument he could be would be based more on his situation as the lead back of a Bevell/Patricia offense. Even if he's not top 5 in value or production, he'd still be a solid start, even if not an RB1.

So, basically, if he cedes touches to Scarborough or another interior back , what would his floor be in value/production?