Sell Now Players!!!

[hoos89]

...the only thing that will prove which side is "right" is time.

Whether or not Jackson is at a higher risk of injury relative to other QBs is not necessarily proven in either direction by time. Higher injury risk != guarantee of more injuries, just as someone who has a couple fluke injuries in a row isn't necessarily more likely to have additional injuries in the future. I'm not saying that Jackson can't have a great career; I'm saying that his playstyle has a higher chance to result in a truncated career. Obviously pocket QBs can have short careers too (Luck), but it's way more common to see pocket QBs continue performing at a high level well into their mid-late 30s than duel threat QBs...and Lamar is running the ball wayyy more than a typical duel threat QB. He's 22nd in the NFL in rushing attempts this season and on track for 185.6 attempts. By comparison, Jackson set the QB rushing attempt record at 147 last season, and Vick's career high was 120. It seems incredibly naive to me to think that level of rushing volume does not carry increased injury risk.

[Patsfan86]

I understand the injury risk point but In the end every play for every player in football there is a high chance of injury risk. So I really try to not factor it into evaluations at all. We have seen plenty of young pocket statue QBs go down for a full season because of a hit they take in the pocket. We have seen plenty of WRs get non contact ACL tears. Now if something were to become chronic with Lamar than I’d take it into evaluation. Like the issues we see with B Cooks concussions, Gurleys knees, fullers hamstrings etc. But right now as far as I know Lamar has nothing chronic so I’m not going to evaluate him on a chance he is more likely to get injured. I’m going to treat it like he has a 12-14 year career ahead of him which is normal for really good QBs

[hoos89]

I understand the injury risk point but In the end every play for every player in football there is a high chance of injury risk. So I really try to not factor it into evaluations at all. We have seen plenty of young pocket statue QBs go down for a full season because of a hit they take in the pocket. We have seen plenty of WRs get non contact ACL tears. Now if something were to become chronic with Lamar than I’d take it into evaluation. Like the issues we see with B Cooks concussions, Gurleys knees, fullers hamstrings etc. But right now as far as I know Lamar has nothing chronic so I’m not going to evaluate him on a chance he is more likely to get injured. I’m going to treat it like he has a 12-14 year career ahead of him which is normal for really good QBs

So you don't generally apply any sort of discount to RBs based on shortened careers due in large part to increased injury risk and general degeneration from taking hits? Yes, obviously injuries are a part of the game. Players get hurt, including pocket QBs, and Andrew Luck is a prime example of that. However, just because counterexamples exist does not mean that running QBs are not more likely to get hurt than pocket QBs, and Lamar is obliterating records for rushing attempts by a QB.

[bjd5211]

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=182879

[MrUbuto]

I understand the injury risk point but In the end every play for every player in football there is a high chance of injury risk. So I really try to not factor it into evaluations at all. We have seen plenty of young pocket statue QBs go down for a full season because of a hit they take in the pocket. We have seen plenty of WRs get non contact ACL tears. Now if something were to become chronic with Lamar than I’d take it into evaluation. Like the issues we see with B Cooks concussions, Gurleys knees, fullers hamstrings etc. But right now as far as I know Lamar has nothing chronic so I’m not going to evaluate him on a chance he is more likely to get injured. I’m going to treat it like he has a 12-14 year career ahead of him which is normal for really good QBs

So you don't generally apply any sort of discount to RBs based on shortened careers due in large part to increased injury risk and general degeneration from taking hits? Yes, obviously injuries are a part of the game. Players get hurt, including pocket QBs, and Andrew Luck is a prime example of that. However, just because counterexamples exist does not mean that running QBs are not more likely to get hurt than pocket QBs, and Lamar is obliterating records for rushing attempts by a QB.

What? Yes you do? The price of a RB starts plumetting at 28 and ones over 30 become thrownin prices on trades. That's WHY they are also extremely expensive in their prime because of the short shelf life due do the wear and tear we know if coming

[hoos89]

What? Yes you do? The price of a RB starts plumetting at 28 and ones over 30 become thrownin prices on trades. That's WHY they are also extremely expensive in their prime because of the short shelf life due do the wear and tear we know if coming

I'm just asking the question of the person who says they don't discount based on injury risk. Don't really follow your argument that short RB shelf life increases RB values though. That doesn't really make sense. You think CMC and Barkley would be less valuable in a world where RBs had the same career length as WRs?

I think we're actually making different points here...I'm saying that all RBs should be discounted relative to same-age players at other positions in dynasty formats (compared to redraft values) due to shortened careers. You seem to be referring to the fact that RB values tend to drop off when they hit late 20s. Two different things.

[ArrylT]

I think it may start to get harder to judge when a player is going to be done or not due to continued advances in keeping players healthy & in shape. Obviously in cases where injuries have sapped either athleticism or health (like effects from concussions) or desire to play or combination of 2 or more factors (like Luck) - then yes players will continue to 'fall off cliffs'.

However, it feels like we are seeing more & more players playing into their mid to late 30s and remain productive. Maybe not to an elite RB/WR/TE/QB 1 level, but still at least worthy of fantasy consideration.

Edelman is 33, Sanders is 32, Fitzgerald is 36 and all are top 24 WRs (ergo starters in any league that starts 2+ WRs). Even 34 year old Amendola has had 3-4 WR1-2 weeks. 33 year old DeSean Jackson had a monster Week I.

Ingram at 30 is an RB1
Peterman at 34 is top 20 in carries & rushing yardage.
Hyde, McCoy, L. Murray & Gore have all had RB1 and/or RB2 weeks.

This is especially the case in regards to Tight Ends - where 2 TEs in the top 10 are 34+ & guys like Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker & Jared Cook have had TE1 weeks (all 32+).

No need to even go into the ageless wonders that are Brees, Brady, Rivers, Rodgers or Fitzmagic (all 36+) ...

I am not saying every player is going to benefit - If you were a 1 hit / year wonder, then no I do not think you'll suddenly become a stud in your 30s - just that guys who were producing for years may ... the longer they've had success, perhaps the greater the odds that they can continue to do so. So players who have had say 4-5 years of strong production in their 20s, and remain in good health & football shape, may end up remaining productive into their 30s now.

Maybe this will mean owners that choose to ride these players until they retire, are going to get rewarded more, than if they were to sell them off at a pittance ...

We shall have to see.

[mullmania]

^ I tried to get off Larry Fitz a year early by trading him for Michael Floyd

Nailed it

[Ray Finkle]

^lol

^^Tell that to my league mates. I am going to throw a punch the next time somebody tells me that Julio Jones turns 31 in February.

[Jigga94]

^lol

^^Tell that to my league mates. I am going to throw a punch the next time somebody tells me that Julio Jones turns 31 in February.

Yes the sell window on Julio was when he was 28. He's worthless now. People make no sense. I'll get a few more years of WR1 production after getting 3 or 4 after I dealt for him because people want their team to get younger.

[bjd5211]

Julio is going to be legitimate fantasy option until he's 34 or 35 perhaps longer if he wants to and his body holds up, he's just an all-time special player and talent.

[ravn88]

In terms of "sell now" I'm looking at guys who blew up last year that I don't think they can produce at that level again or guys that are just overhyped to me in general. That doesn't mean these aren't valuable pieces or you should drop them for anything. Moreso I think these guys could very well be at peak value and could easily see value dropping between this year and next. Note that I do like some (most) of the guys on this list, but if I can move them for a good package, I would consider it.

Pat Mahomes: It seems people are expecting 5k yards and 50 TDs a year. I'll take the under. His perceived market value is bananas right now in single QB or SF.

Sammy Watkins: This guy seems to be on the "break out" list every single year, yet there is always an excuse for why he didn't put together a great season when the season ends. If he fails this year I think his value will finally take a massive hit.

Baker: A great finish to the season and new toys. How many players/teams really live up to the hype when they get this much publicity? I just think for a team that has been irrelevant for over a decade they are getting way too much attention currently.

Eric Ebron: Anytime you have a great TD season you are almost destined for regression. I think there is serious regression there and I don't know that he will get the targets to make up for it.

Jared Cook: Everyone is excited about him in NOLA. If he disappoints he goes right back into the bargain bin.

OBJ: Yes dude is talented but he has a couple screws loose. I also think he enjoys being a celebrity just as much, if not more, than being a football player. That concerns me. I also think the way he is viewed in the dynasty community will shift if he gets injured again this season.

James Conner: Good back in a great system for an organization that isn't going to pay big bucks to a RB. 2 years left on his rookie deal. He has also struggled with injuries his first 2 years. If he makes it 3 for 3 is he phased out in Pitt?

George Kittle: SF brought in more receiving weapons. I don't see him getting close to 1400 receiving yards again.

How spot on was this, back from page 1.
Even though Patty & Kittle are good for years to come

[thebeast]

...the only thing that will prove which side is "right" is time.

Whether or not Jackson is at a higher risk of injury relative to other QBs is not necessarily proven in either direction by time. Higher injury risk != guarantee of more injuries, just as someone who has a couple fluke injuries in a row isn't necessarily more likely to have additional injuries in the future. I'm not saying that Jackson can't have a great career; I'm saying that his playstyle has a higher chance to result in a truncated career. Obviously pocket QBs can have short careers too (Luck), but it's way more common to see pocket QBs continue performing at a high level well into their mid-late 30s than duel threat QBs...and Lamar is running the ball wayyy more than a typical duel threat QB. He's 22nd in the NFL in rushing attempts this season and on track for 185.6 attempts. By comparison, Jackson set the QB rushing attempt record at 147 last season, and Vick's career high was 120. It seems incredibly naive to me to think that level of rushing volume does not carry increased injury risk.

You are selectively choosing your dual threat QBs to suit your argument. You bring up RG3 to highlight concern, but he is the anomaly. You bring up cam who has a totally different game than Lamar (like comparing Alex Smith to Aaron Rodger) but even Cam who has taken all the contact has been in the league for about 8+ years and who know what impact his major car accident had in his career. You’ve chosen to leave out other dual threats that weren’t derailed by injury such as Wilson and Vick. If you want to pick a QB to compare him to Vick is a better comparison. Vick to also had great field vision and rarely took hard contact, but Lamar is already better than Vick ever was. I don’t think there is a big injury concern for Lamar regarding his style of play anymore than there is for Wilson in today’s game.

[Cult of Dionysus]

...the only thing that will prove which side is "right" is time.

Whether or not Jackson is at a higher risk of injury relative to other QBs is not necessarily proven in either direction by time. Higher injury risk != guarantee of more injuries, just as someone who has a couple fluke injuries in a row isn't necessarily more likely to have additional injuries in the future. I'm not saying that Jackson can't have a great career; I'm saying that his playstyle has a higher chance to result in a truncated career. Obviously pocket QBs can have short careers too (Luck), but it's way more common to see pocket QBs continue performing at a high level well into their mid-late 30s than duel threat QBs...and Lamar is running the ball wayyy more than a typical duel threat QB. He's 22nd in the NFL in rushing attempts this season and on track for 185.6 attempts. By comparison, Jackson set the QB rushing attempt record at 147 last season, and Vick's career high was 120. It seems incredibly naive to me to think that level of rushing volume does not carry increased injury risk.

You are selectively choosing your dual threat QBs to suit your argument. You bring up RG3 to highlight concern, but he is the anomaly. You bring up cam who has a totally different game than Lamar (like comparing Alex Smith to Aaron Rodger) but even Cam who has taken all the contact has been in the league for about 8+ years and who know what impact his major car accident had in his career. You’ve chosen to leave out other dual threats that weren’t derailed by injury such as Wilson and Vick. If you want to pick a QB to compare him to Vick is a better comparison. Vick to also had great field vision and rarely took hard contact, but Lamar is already better than Vick ever was. I don’t think there is a big injury concern for Lamar regarding his style of play anymore than there is for Wilson in today’s game.

I don't think the focus necessarily should be on "injuries" with these running QBs, but rather wear and tear that slows them down, beats them up and causes them to miss more and more time and/or reduces their effectiveness as runners as their career goes on.

Vick had amazing field vision and athletic ability, but he made many bad decisions and sacrificed his body for a few extra yards. Vick was so dumb that he'd run into a LB while lunging for a few extra yards IN PRE SEASON. The only other QB who comes close to Vick in this regard was RG3, who also didn't check his ego/pride and played with utter disregard for his physical well-being. Cam is kinda different as he was built like a truck and usually came off better in collisions. But he also generally displayed a disregard for his own physical well-being, while other scramblers like Wilson (and Murray) as examples, NEVER take hard hits when they scramble.

It remains to be seen how long Jackson can keep up his rushing carries and his rushing style. I just bought Jackson for a championship push, but I don't think I'd want him as a long-term asset...

[thebeast]

^ I am happy to take him off your hands this off season when your run is over.