TE delusion

[bjd5211]

If we say MT has a value around 3 or 4 first round picks and the value of an elite TE is greater than the value of an elite TE due to the differential between elite and starter, shouldn't Kelce be going for something like 4 first round picks? But I don't see that and I'm curious why not.

TE scores less, Kelce is 30, TE is very situation-dependent than WR so more fluctuation, etc.

WR scores less than QB, but QB is typically the least valued position despite being the highest scoring. A TE like Kelce scores a greater amount of points in comparison to the average TE than a WR like MT scores in comparison to the average WR. Now I'm not saying I would take Kelce over MT, but there is significant value in having a truly elite TE and that puts guys like that on par with some of the higher end WRs just because of positional scarcity. WR is easily the deepest position among the 4 primary fantasy positions, and TE is probably even more easily the thinnest. So while WRs score more total points than TE, the points from the TE position are more valuable than the points from the WR position because it's easier to get that production out of WRs than from TEs.

[Patsfan86]

I wouldn't let a TE prevent me from getting a stud talent, but I understand the allure. TE is such a shallow position, so hitting on a stud can give you a big lineup luxury. And, lately...the TE hits have been all over the place in terms of draft pedigree:

Gronk: 2nd round pick
Kelce: 3rd round pick
Kittle: 5th round pick
Ertz: 2nd round pick
Olsen: 1st round pick
Graham: 3rd round pick
Waller: 6th round pick
Engram: 1st round pick
Walker: 6th round pick
Hooper: 3rd round pick
Andrews: 1st round pick

So, theoretically...the next big one could be anyone (even though most of them will bust).

This is also why im done drafting TEs, they are all over the place in who hits or not. Luxury is the perfect way to describe the TE position. Its not needed and you can win with a guy giving you 5-6 points a game but man is it nice to have. My vaunted Two TE 2015 Set of Greg Olsen and Gary Barnidge will never be forgotten.

[Patsfan86]

MT for Kelce? Helllllll No, not even close. Kelce for a guy like OBJ right now? Sure. I understand the comparison of trading a high end WR1 for Kelce but MT is perhaps the #1 Dynasty asset right now so he shouldnt be used in a comparison like this. But Ya there are a few WR1s id give up to get Kelce. Kelce> Julio also

[Mike from Canada]

If we say MT has a value around 3 or 4 first round picks and the value of an elite TE is greater than the value of an elite TE due to the differential between elite and starter, shouldn't Kelce be going for something like 4 first round picks? But I don't see that and I'm curious why not.

TE scores less, Kelce is 30, TE is very situation-dependent than WR so more fluctuation, etc.

WR scores less than QB, but QB is typically the least valued position despite being the highest scoring. A TE like Kelce scores a greater amount of points in comparison to the average TE than a WR like MT scores in comparison to the average WR. Now I'm not saying I would take Kelce over MT, but there is significant value in having a truly elite TE and that puts guys like that on par with some of the higher end WRs just because of positional scarcity. WR is easily the deepest position among the 4 primary fantasy positions, and TE is probably even more easily the thinnest. So while WRs score more total points than TE, the points from the TE position are more valuable than the points from the WR position because it's easier to get that production out of WRs than from TEs.

This makes sense to me. Don't your odds of beating an opponent go up in proportion to the average point differential at each position? If so then why aren't elite TE's more valuable than elite WR's? Maybe I'm missing something here - I'm just thinking out loud.

[Krypto_King]

This makes sense to me. Don't your odds of beating an opponent go up in proportion to the average point differential at each position? If so then why aren't elite TE's more valuable than elite WR's? Maybe I'm missing something here - I'm just thinking out loud.

Gronk was. Kelce is the TE4 and .5 ppg better than the TE7. Hooper has been a difference maker this year but wasn't even an auto-start until week 4.

There is a pretty big pool of TEs that could be top 5 next year, which gives none of them elite value imo.

[Sriracha]

This makes sense to me. Don't your odds of beating an opponent go up in proportion to the average point differential at each position? If so then why aren't elite TE's more valuable than elite WR's? Maybe I'm missing something here - I'm just thinking out loud.

Gronk was. Kelce is the TE4 and .5 ppg better than the TE7. Hooper has been a difference maker this year but wasn't even an auto-start until week 4.

There is a pretty big pool of TEs that could be top 5 next year, which gives none of them elite value imo.

Where do Davante Adams, Deandre Hopkins, and Juju Smith Schuster rank this season? Do you not consider them elite values?

No one can tell what's going to happen in any given season; as there is just so much variance at the receiver positions. You value players for likelihoods; and it's far more likely that Kelce/Kittle are going to be strong TE1 plays next season than whatever break out candidates emerge throughout this year.

[ArrylT]

That is why I love dynasty - you can pick & choose what you want to do.

Want to play in a league that really values TE - go to a 2 TE league with a scoring premium.

Want to play in a league that dislikes how hard it is to project TE production - join a league with a WR/TE spot rather than a dedicated TE spot.

Want to play in a league without HAVING to start a QB? Play in a league with 2 SF spots rather than 1 QB & 1 SF.

If you build it they will come. Make TE as valuable or as worthless as you want!

[Mike from Canada]

With it being so difficult to predict TE success is it better to wait until close to draft time and then try to acquire an established one like Kelce or Kittle with a first round draft pick?

[Jigga94]

With it being so difficult to predict TE success is it better to wait until close to draft time and then try to acquire an established one like Kelce or Kittle with a first round draft pick?

Probably. That's when picks are at peak value anyway. Then a guy like Noah Fant or OJ Howard goes in 1st round but then could be had for a 2nd (or close to it) after their rookie season

[Mephistopheles]

At the same time.. reliable TE production is a barren wasteland so I can't blame owners for holding onto those guys.

TEs historically take a long time to break out.

That said - most owners seek out trades in which they are the clear winner rather than balancing the offer.

I'm inclined to believe this and maybe it's not just TE. With many owners, those that damn near never trade, I have to be way ahead on a trade so that it LOOKS like the other owner has one big time. Funny thing is though, some of my best trades (like when I got Mike Evans for Stafford) have been proposed to ME by those same "win every trade" owners.

I'm one of those guys that "damn near never" trades anymore, and I have several friends who play DFF who are of the same mindset. It doesn't happen (at least not for us) because we always want to put one over on people. It's because we are disgusted with people constantly trying to put one over on us.

I've had 5 people approach me in the last week asking after players on my teams. Every one of them, I quoted a fair price for my players ( that they asked after), and every damn one of those discussions devolved into them arguing with me about that value and pointing out all the risks on my guys and even fabricating some (one guy said "Kerryon hasn't been healthy for six years" when the guy's been in the league for 2...smfh).

HAd another guy a couple weeks ago approached me about swapping Prescott for Matt Ryan...wanted me to add an early 2020 1st. Said no thanks, you're buying so you should add a bit on your side...maybe a late 3rd? Guy threw a fit about that. SMFH.

No thanks on trading anymore for me.

[Jigga94]

At the same time.. reliable TE production is a barren wasteland so I can't blame owners for holding onto those guys.

TEs historically take a long time to break out.

That said - most owners seek out trades in which they are the clear winner rather than balancing the offer.

I'm inclined to believe this and maybe it's not just TE. With many owners, those that damn near never trade, I have to be way ahead on a trade so that it LOOKS like the other owner has one big time. Funny thing is though, some of my best trades (like when I got Mike Evans for Stafford) have been proposed to ME by those same "win every trade" owners.

I'm one of those guys that "damn near never" trades anymore, and I have several friends who play DFF who are of the same mindset. It doesn't happen (at least not for us) because we always want to put one over on people. It's because we are disgusted with people constantly trying to put one over on us.

I've had 5 people approach me in the last week asking after players on my teams. Every one of them, I quoted a fair price for my players ( that they asked after), and every damn one of those discussions devolved into them arguing with me about that value and pointing out all the risks on my guys and even fabricating some (one guy said "Kerryon hasn't been healthy for six years" when the guy's been in the league for 2...smfh).

HAd another guy a couple weeks ago approached me about swapping Prescott for Matt Ryan...wanted me to add an early 2020 1st. Said no thanks, you're buying so you should add a bit on your side...maybe a late 3rd? Guy threw a fit about that. SMFH.

No thanks on trading anymore for me.

You've been on a rant lately about trading. I get it. But maybe time to take a step back? Idk it sucks when peoples values aren't the same but they could easily be on the other side, with their own values, saying the same stuff. Just my 2 cents that's all

[mild]

There are a number of great trade calculators out there - including my personal favourite one on this here forum's parent site.

If anyone's ever getting too uppity on trade value, I usually just send them a screenshot to help reset expectation and explain that they are off base. Calculators may not be perfect, but at least your trade partner can't argue that they're biased.

You can't just "sign out" on trading in dynasty. There's no other way to get the veteran players you want otherwise. It's essential - and in that sense, dynasty is so much more about building your relationships with the other owners in your league.

[MrUbuto]

I'm not saying Kelce >>> MT

But it is interesting conversation that I think a lot of us older fantasy dinosaurs really should be having

MT is only outscoring him straight up by 2 points. (Yes 9ers have a game at hand)

Kupp and Evan's are also in the top 5 all I would easily trade them for kelce.

I think it's time to elevate the way we prioritize them, which is made difficult because as someone else posted above you can't just use draft capital to find them. You either need to get lucky on the wire or trade a guy like Michael thomas for one

Speaking of which 2 years ago I traded micheal thomas for HH and 2 2nds

I am easily losing that trade right now but if henry can stay healthy for 5 years I'm very happy with that

[bjd5211]

There are a number of great trade calculators out there - including my personal favourite one on this here forum's parent site.

If anyone's ever getting too uppity on trade value, I usually just send them a screenshot to help reset expectation and explain that they are off base. Calculators may not be perfect, but at least your trade partner can't argue that they're biased.

You can't just "sign out" on trading in dynasty. There's no other way to get the veteran players you want otherwise. It's essential - and in that sense, dynasty is so much more about building your relationships with the other owners in your league.

If you want to use calculators for your own personal valuations knock yourself out, but sending screenshots to other owners as a reason why they should change their valuation is laughable.

[saw061600]

I'm not saying Kelce >>> MT

But it is interesting conversation that I think a lot of us older fantasy dinosaurs really should be having

MT is only outscoring him straight up by 2 points. (Yes 9ers have a game at hand)

Kupp and Evan's are also in the top 5 all I would easily trade them for kelce.

I think it's time to elevate the way we prioritize them, which is made difficult because as someone else posted above you can't just use draft capital to find them. You either need to get lucky on the wire or trade a guy like Michael thomas for one

Speaking of which 2 years ago I traded micheal thomas for HH and 2 2nds

I am easily losing that trade right now but if henry can stay healthy for 5 years I'm very happy with that

I suppose I could have just posted this but then wouldn't have received the various viewpoints. I'm not spending a first on a TE in any draft. I'll grab the could be guys like Andrews in the 3rd or 4th and hold them a year plus to see if there's a shot. Sometimes you may sell or give up to early (Everett maybe one of those for me) and sometimes you spend a 2nd in offseason to get the guy you believe is heading towards break out (Andrews for me where I didn't draft).

So my original post was supposed to be viewed as "when you're competing and going for the win, believing that your rookie (Fant, Hock, or whoever) is going to help you carry the ship is delusional. It just doesn't statistically happen enough to be believable." Could it happen? Well sure it could. I mean anything is possible. Ajayi could sign with DET and could end up putting up a 1000 yards and winning you it all. He could.