Finding the Next Godwin

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Finding the Next Godwin

Postby StripesOfKC » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:24 pm

Last year many people saw D-Jax's impending free agency and bought Godwin for a very reasonable price (also before his 3rd year when WRs usually break out). Maybe less so because it is a run first offense but I would think many people saw the opening-in a JAX WR group with bums like Moncrief and Keelan Cole-for DJ Chark to break out.
Tough to predict what moves NFL teams will make, especially with such a stacked draft class upcoming but these moves can turn around a fantasy team and could get way more expensive to make if you wait until the offseason hype starts

With that here are some of my buys. Just going to focus on pass catchers. Feel free to list RBs as well but that position is just too hard for me to predict

Christian Kirk/Cardinals WRs-not gonna come cheap at all (mid 1st type price tag) but Fitzgerald is likely retired after this year, his target share looked solid in the early weeks and Kyler has settled in nicely. In fact, Dameire Byrd and Pharaoh Cooper are also FAs- so if you don't want to pay this for Kirk I would not be opposed to trying to buy a guy like Isabella or Hakeem Butler either for a 3rd or maybe even KeeSean Johnson. Tough to identify who the guy is but there is easily enough passing volume in this offense for 2 solid fantasy WRs and maybe even a 3rd with streamer type numbers

DaeSean Hamilton-This is riskier because you probably need to act soon but Emmanuel Sanders is likely on the move and Hamilton flashed good hands and route running when Sanders was out last year. Broncos could easily draft a WR early next year but before that Hamilton will have his opportunity to fill Sanders's underneath role. Though I wasn't the biggest believer in him out of the draft, if you were then Noah Fant may never be cheaper than he is now with quite a few targets due to open up.

Miles Boykin-Run first offense-yes but if Lamar Jackson can continue his trajectory there is no reason to think he cannot support 2 fantasy WRs and a TE and the WR2 role opposite Hollywood should be wide open with Snead, Chris Moore and Seth Roberts (all with significant snap shares this year) hitting free agency

Other Situations to Monitor but No Clear Buy for Me Yet
TB: If OJ Howard gets traded there is certainly opportunity for Scotty Miller/Justin Watson on such a pass heavy team. Remember that the Bruce Arians Cardinals were able to support 3 fantasy relevant WRs (Fitz, Floyd and John Brown)

MIA: Devante Parker is likely gone next year and more importantly the team should have a QB upgrade and a pulse in the offense next season while the defense will still likely take more than a draft to build, meaning lots of garbage time opportunities. Thing is Preston Williams hype/price has gotten a bit rich for my blood lately and I am beginning to think Mike Gesicki is trash (but if you like him then a good time to buy). Not to mention they will likely draft a WR pretty high next year

TEN: Lots of rumors around Corey Davis and Delaine Walker could be on the move as well. BUT-AJ Brown's extreme efficiency in limited opportunities means no one is selling him cheap and a real JuJu 2018-like 2nd year leap IMO requires a change in offensive philosophy-possible with Henry also a FA-but nowhere near a guarantee. Jonnu Smith could be a decent flier in TE premium or a buy low and stash in 2 TE. Of course both these guys, like in Tampa's case, could end up with Jake Fromm or Justin Herbert as QB and see their value slashed for years. The murkiness of this possibility is what makes these situations to monitor rather than buys for me

TL;DR: Lots of speculation here but the right preemptive move can give you a serious leg up for next season, making this search worthwhile for rebuilding teams but also contenders.
Anyone have their takes on guys to buy based on a possible usage bump next year?
Last edited by StripesOfKC on Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby mullmania » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:38 pm

Boykin I thought was gonna be the guy over M Brown

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby StripesOfKC » Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:31 pm

mullmania wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:38 pm
Boykin I thought was gonna be the guy over M Brown
I did too. Having memories of the Chargers playoff game fresh in my mind-I thought the big bodied possession guy would be far more Lamar's speed than the quick downfield threat. Did not see this kind of jump from Jackson

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:33 pm

This post insinuates a guy like Godwin comes along every year. I mean, Juju was the last Godwin, so I guess it could happen. I don't see Kirk because he doesn't have the alpha capabilities that Godwin has. I don't know why Daesean Hamilton is on this list. He's worthless in Fantasy Football.

Love AJ Brown. He's already shown his abilities, and had good draft capital, and athleticism, and college production. I'd say he's a year 3 breakout type guy for sure, if not next year. His QB play and offensive system is the big question. I don't think anyone thinks Jameis is good, but he throws enough, and at least lets it rip enough that it's good for FF. Now that the Mariota era is over, I can see AJB is a guy on the upswing. I think Davis will command the top corners, but AJB is the better football player, so I could see him being that guy. I think he'll bully slot corners, and even sometimes outside guys on certain routes (like Trufant a few games ago). Hoping for a regime change there to get away from that system, though. AJB hasn't been targeted more than 5 times in a game.
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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby StripesOfKC » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:49 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:33 pm
This post insinuates a guy like Godwin comes along every year. I mean, Juju was the last Godwin, so I guess it could happen. I don't see Kirk because he doesn't have the alpha capabilities that Godwin has. I don't know why Daesean Hamilton is on this list. He's worthless in Fantasy Football.

Love AJ Brown. He's already shown his abilities, and had good draft capital, and athleticism, and college production. I'd say he's a year 3 breakout type guy for sure, if not next year. His QB play is the big question.
Maybe this was a misleading title but breakout WRs come around more often than you think. Golladay last year, Gallup (if he sustains something close to this pace) this year, Chark this year, Tyler Boyd last year, Diggs 2017. As for Hamilton, he was pretty serviceable in PPR last year after Sanders tore his achilles. Not saying he can be Godwin-more just looking for guys who could break out based on greater usage next year

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:57 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:49 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:33 pm
This post insinuates a guy like Godwin comes along every year. I mean, Juju was the last Godwin, so I guess it could happen. I don't see Kirk because he doesn't have the alpha capabilities that Godwin has. I don't know why Daesean Hamilton is on this list. He's worthless in Fantasy Football.

Love AJ Brown. He's already shown his abilities, and had good draft capital, and athleticism, and college production. I'd say he's a year 3 breakout type guy for sure, if not next year. His QB play is the big question.
Maybe this was a misleading title but breakout WRs come around more often than you think. Golladay last year, Gallup (if he sustains something close to this pace) this year, Chark this year, Tyler Boyd last year, Diggs 2017. As for Hamilton, he was pretty serviceable in PPR last year after Sanders tore his achilles. Not saying he can be Godwin-more just looking for guys who could break out based on greater usage next year
:thumbup: True. But Godwin is currently THE WR1. I understand the idea, though. Thanks for clearing it up. Hamilton looks terrible this year, and all off season Cecil Lammey was saying Sutton is the 1, regardless if Sanders is healthy, and Daesean is a good route runner, but just doesn't have it. He said any type of injury and he's toast. He's a borderline WR on an NFL team, and I trust the guy watching him at all the practices and games for his job more than FF hobbyists. I think Evan Silva predicted Daeseasn for 90 catches in a hot take, and I never saw it. I think Hamilton is closer to out of the league than breaking out. He's just not that good. I remember this take from his draft profile.

"In this job you deal with some really good guys and some not so good guys. He's one of the best. I think he goes undrafted, but I also think football is going to be a very small part of what he accomplishes in his life." -- AFC team regional scout

So he's apparently a standup guy, but he's just not an NFL WR that is going to be FF relevant. The ceiling is so low for me, I'd cut bait for anything that gives you another shot at lightning in a bottle.
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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby StripesOfKC » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:33 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:57 pm
StripesOfKC wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:49 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:33 pm
This post insinuates a guy like Godwin comes along every year. I mean, Juju was the last Godwin, so I guess it could happen. I don't see Kirk because he doesn't have the alpha capabilities that Godwin has. I don't know why Daesean Hamilton is on this list. He's worthless in Fantasy Football.

Love AJ Brown. He's already shown his abilities, and had good draft capital, and athleticism, and college production. I'd say he's a year 3 breakout type guy for sure, if not next year. His QB play is the big question.
Maybe this was a misleading title but breakout WRs come around more often than you think. Golladay last year, Gallup (if he sustains something close to this pace) this year, Chark this year, Tyler Boyd last year, Diggs 2017. As for Hamilton, he was pretty serviceable in PPR last year after Sanders tore his achilles. Not saying he can be Godwin-more just looking for guys who could break out based on greater usage next year
:thumbup: True. But Godwin is currently THE WR1. I understand the idea, though. Thanks for clearing it up. Hamilton looks terrible this year, and all off season Cecil Lammey was saying Sutton is the 1, regardless if Sanders is healthy, and Daesean is a good route runner, but just doesn't have it. He said any type of injury and he's toast. He's a borderline WR on an NFL team, and I trust the guy watching him at all the practices and games for his job more than FF hobbyists. I think Evan Silva predicted Daeseasn for 90 catches in a hot take, and I never saw it. I think Hamilton is closer to out of the league than breaking out. He's just not that good. I remember this take from his draft profile.

"In this job you deal with some really good guys and some not so good guys. He's one of the best. I think he goes undrafted, but I also think football is going to be a very small part of what he accomplishes in his life." -- AFC team regional scout

So he's apparently a standup guy, but he's just not an NFL WR that is going to be FF relevant. The ceiling is so low for me, I'd cut bait for anything that gives you another shot at lightning in a bottle.
I guess I was thinking of more preseason Godwin (like a guy who could burst on the scene as a solid WR2). I did not know Hamilton had struggled that much this year. Figured he was just off the field with Sanders back. As for Kirk, if you don't see him as a true number 1 (reasonable take) then who do you see the rest of Fitz's targets going to? Which of the Cardinals other WRs would you project to see a bump in playing time next year? Or do you see them bringing someone else in by FA or the draft? I think it is possible but they have so many other needs. Have a hard time seeing them draft a WR early or sign a major one a year after spending three draft picks on wideouts unless the perfect air raid guy that Kliff loves falls-as with Kyler-(like a CeeDee Lamb maybe) falls into their lap

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:40 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:33 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:57 pm
StripesOfKC wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:49 pm


Maybe this was a misleading title but breakout WRs come around more often than you think. Golladay last year, Gallup (if he sustains something close to this pace) this year, Chark this year, Tyler Boyd last year, Diggs 2017. As for Hamilton, he was pretty serviceable in PPR last year after Sanders tore his achilles. Not saying he can be Godwin-more just looking for guys who could break out based on greater usage next year
:thumbup: True. But Godwin is currently THE WR1. I understand the idea, though. Thanks for clearing it up. Hamilton looks terrible this year, and all off season Cecil Lammey was saying Sutton is the 1, regardless if Sanders is healthy, and Daesean is a good route runner, but just doesn't have it. He said any type of injury and he's toast. He's a borderline WR on an NFL team, and I trust the guy watching him at all the practices and games for his job more than FF hobbyists. I think Evan Silva predicted Daeseasn for 90 catches in a hot take, and I never saw it. I think Hamilton is closer to out of the league than breaking out. He's just not that good. I remember this take from his draft profile.

"In this job you deal with some really good guys and some not so good guys. He's one of the best. I think he goes undrafted, but I also think football is going to be a very small part of what he accomplishes in his life." -- AFC team regional scout

So he's apparently a standup guy, but he's just not an NFL WR that is going to be FF relevant. The ceiling is so low for me, I'd cut bait for anything that gives you another shot at lightning in a bottle.
I guess I was thinking of more preseason Godwin (like a guy who could burst on the scene as a solid WR2). I did not know Hamilton had struggled that much this year. Figured he was just off the field with Sanders back. As for Kirk, if you don't see him as a true number 1 (reasonable take) then who do you see the rest of Fitz's targets going to? Which of the Cardinals other WRs would you project to see a bump in playing time next year? Or do you see them bringing someone else in by FA or the draft? I think it is possible but they have so many other needs. Have a hard time seeing them draft a WR early or sign a major one a year after spending three draft picks on wideouts unless the perfect air raid guy that Kliff loves falls-as with Kyler-(like a CeeDee Lamb maybe) falls into their lap
If he stays healthy, I think Kirk can be a PPR beast. They run 4 wide a ton. Kirk is a guy that could catch 100 balls if he can stay healthy, but it will be for 1000 yards, and 5 TD's type thing. They need an outside guy. I think they still hope Butler will be that, but I think his career has been derailed. IF Ceedee went their, that would be awesome. I think Isabella will eventually have a role, and I also believe the Cards will focus their early draft capital on the OL, so I doubt they sink more early capital into WR's. What they have, is what they will go with, IMO, as far as next year. They used a 2nd and 4th on WR's this past year, and they really need to protect Kyler, or the WR's won't matter, unless the NFL schedules them to play the Bengals and Falcons 8 times a year each.
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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby Straycatz2 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:52 pm

To see the huge jumps probably need to search for teams with lots of vacated targets.
For example when juju broke out, steelers lost 190 targets and this year Godwin Wr1 breakout had 180 vacated targets.

Getting 8-10 targets a game would definitely help someone breakout

If fitz leaves that would definitely give Kirk a chance to make the same type of leap and even if fitz doesn't leave the passing volume of the offense gives Kirk a chance to move up a tier

Look for teams with lots of lost targets
12 Team PPR Standard League 1xQB, 2xRB, 3xWR, 1xTE, 1xFlex - Full rebuild mode
QB: Wentz, Stafford
RB: Hunt, C. Thompson, Justice Hill, G. Ty Johnson, Scott
WR: Golladay, Metcalf, Preston Williams, J. Washington, Boykin
TE: Hockenson, Andrews, Herndon, I. Thomas

Picks:
2020: 6x 1st, 1x 2nd, 2x 3rd

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby dmac37 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:39 pm

The answer to the question is JJAW
12 Team PPR Scoring:
QB: Rodgers, Goff
RB: Hunt, Fournette, Devonta Freeman, A. Jones, Samuels, Gallman, Armstead, Bruce Anderson
WR:OBJ, M. Thomas, K. Allen, Watkins, Ridley, Coutee, Isabella
TE: Ertz, Herndon, Shaheen,
PK:
DST: Jaguars

12 Team Superflex PPR Scoring:
QB: Rodgers, Wentz, Foles
RB: Hunt, Fournette, Guice, Penny, A. Jones, Damien Williams, Ronald Jones, Thompson, McGuire,
WR: OBJ, Ridley, Godwin, Jeffrey, John Brown, Sutton, Parker, JJAW, Butler
TE: Henry, Herndon , Hurst, I. Thomas

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:42 pm

Straycatz2 wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:52 pm
To see the huge jumps probably need to search for teams with lots of vacated targets.
For example when juju broke out, steelers lost 190 targets and this year Godwin Wr1 breakout had 180 vacated targets.

Getting 8-10 targets a game would definitely help someone breakout

If fitz leaves that would definitely give Kirk a chance to make the same type of leap and even if fitz doesn't leave the passing volume of the offense gives Kirk a chance to move up a tier

Look for teams with lots of lost targets
Except that had the opposite effect for Juju, this year. AB's targets left. Which meant AB, and the attention the D paid to him left. Evans didn't go anywhere. Godwin excels partly because Evans is there, whether people want to admit it or not (and I roster Godwin). AB leaving had a detrimental effect to Juju. Fitz is still the WR the D is most worried about in Arizona. Fitz retiring or leaving does not mean an easier time and more production for Kirk.
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Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
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Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby StripesOfKC » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:55 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:42 pm
Straycatz2 wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:52 pm
To see the huge jumps probably need to search for teams with lots of vacated targets.
For example when juju broke out, steelers lost 190 targets and this year Godwin Wr1 breakout had 180 vacated targets.

Getting 8-10 targets a game would definitely help someone breakout

If fitz leaves that would definitely give Kirk a chance to make the same type of leap and even if fitz doesn't leave the passing volume of the offense gives Kirk a chance to move up a tier

Look for teams with lots of lost targets
Except that had the opposite effect for Juju, this year. AB's targets left. Which meant AB, and the attention the D paid to him left. Evans didn't go anywhere. Godwin excels partly because Evans is there, whether people want to admit it or not (and I roster Godwin). AB leaving had a detrimental effect to Juju. Fitz is still the WR the D is most worried about in Arizona. Fitz retiring or leaving does not mean an easier time and more production for Kirk.
JuJu also has an offense that is unwilling to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield with Rudolph and more like 5 yards with Hodges. With Ben playing and being active JuJu would be fine this year. His separation numbers look to be fine just no downfield big play capability and no one willing to take a chance on throwing to tight windows. People said similar things about Jordy Nelson (albeit an over the hill Jordy Nelson) leaving hampering Adams and he had his best season last year. Elite talents can benefit big when given more opportunity. The question is who you believe is an elite talent. I think Kirk could be

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:58 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:55 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:42 pm
Straycatz2 wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:52 pm
To see the huge jumps probably need to search for teams with lots of vacated targets.
For example when juju broke out, steelers lost 190 targets and this year Godwin Wr1 breakout had 180 vacated targets.

Getting 8-10 targets a game would definitely help someone breakout

If fitz leaves that would definitely give Kirk a chance to make the same type of leap and even if fitz doesn't leave the passing volume of the offense gives Kirk a chance to move up a tier

Look for teams with lots of lost targets
Except that had the opposite effect for Juju, this year. AB's targets left. Which meant AB, and the attention the D paid to him left. Evans didn't go anywhere. Godwin excels partly because Evans is there, whether people want to admit it or not (and I roster Godwin). AB leaving had a detrimental effect to Juju. Fitz is still the WR the D is most worried about in Arizona. Fitz retiring or leaving does not mean an easier time and more production for Kirk.
JuJu also has an offense that is unwilling to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield with Rudolph and more like 5 yards with Hodges. With Ben playing and being active JuJu would be fine this year. His separation numbers look to be fine just no downfield big play capability and no one willing to take a chance on throwing to tight windows. People said similar things about Jordy Nelson (albeit an over the hill Jordy Nelson) leaving hampering Adams and he had his best season last year. Elite talents can benefit big when given more opportunity. The question is who you believe is an elite talent. I think Kirk could be
Agreed. However, Kirk is a slot WR in that offense. They throw with the first 10 yards of the LOS all the time. Kirk is a possession WR. He will need a ton of catches, which he was getting, to be relevant. Even in college Kirks YPR were 26th percentile. Godwin's was 75th. So far this year his YPR are 10.1. Godwin's is 15.4. He's not a Godwin comp. Godwin is a much more versatile and complete WR than Kirk will ever be. Kirk can be a top slot WR. He will not be a guy that can line up all over the field and beat coverage without scheming. Godwin and Kirk aren't close in talent, for me. Kirk is talented at a specific role, Godwin is much more versatile. Red zone wise, too. He's bigger and more physical. Godwin has the ability to become the alpha in an offense at some point, and Kirk doesn't. Doesn't mean Kirk can't be a good FF WR. He most certainly can. He was already showing signs of that before his injury.
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Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby imi814 » Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:00 am

dmac37 wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:39 pm
The answer to the question is JJAW
I hope you are right
10 team start 2QB salary cap .5 PPR 2QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1 Flex(WR/RB/TE)

QB: Wilson Wentz Lamar teddy (holding luck)
RB: CMC Fournette Cook Kerryon Cohen Penny Yeldon Damien Williams
WR: OBJ Hopkins Adams Kupp M. Williams Miller
TE: Ertz OJ Henry

Team 2: 12 team salary cap PPR 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1 Flex(WR/RB/TE)

QB: Winston Darnold
RB: Kamara Cook A jones Kerryon Hyde
WR: Hopkins M Thomas Evans Kupp Ridley Chark Miller JJAW
TE: Ertz Burton

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Re: Finding the Next Godwin

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:33 am

Scenarios like Godwin don't present themselves often. I mentioned this in the Godwin thread in the summer, but this was his situation:

- Over 200 targets were freed up in Tampa Bay's offense following the departures of Humphries, Jackson, Rodgers, and someone else.

- Godwin posted elite separation numbers via Matt Harmon's Reception Perception. Godwin is a damn good route runner and could be on his way to becoming one of the league's premier route runners. To me, this is the biggest reason why he's playing at a high level.

- Bruce Arians consistently talked about using Godwin in some aspects as he did Larry Fitzgerald. Often coachspeak can be pointless, but this was pretty notable as it matched the skillset of Godwin.

So, find me a player who will have ample opportunity, can run routes at a high level, has a coach with a proven plan to help him succeed, and you'll find the next Chris Godwin.

Theoretically, I think Corey Davis could be that player if he was in an offense that actually was interested in using him. Since that's not the case, I'm not sure who it is. Christian Kirk is not a bad call. Curtis Samuel with a QB who's more accurate is someone to think about.


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