A-Fraud- Rodgers and the GB offense

[ArrylT]

Well if Davante Adams and/or Jamaal Williams is back this week we may see if that changes things. We should have a good idea soon this week if either one does have a chance.

[DJB]

A Jones the real deal going forward? Or are people still unsure of him?

[badbuddah]

A Jones the real deal going forward? Or are people still unsure of him?

He's the real deal, Kamara level talent, but the situation is murky. LaFleur is a damned moron who thinks he needs to split 50/50 (or very close to it) reps between him and Williams, so as long as that doofus does that, he will be an RB2, that occasionally has RB1 (and insane) weeks. As for where people value him? He can't currently crack my starting lineup due to that uncertainty, but he is so much more talented that Fournette, but Fournette gets a billion carries per game, so I can't bench him. If you look at his scouting combine metrics from 2017, you will see he scored very similarly to Kamara. Difference is Sean Peyton knows how to use a talent like that.

[Lumps]

[blemly]

What a game from Rodgers. And he did it without Adams too.

[FantasyFreak]

A Jones the real deal going forward? Or are people still unsure of him?

He's the real deal, Kamara level talent, but the situation is murky. LaFleur is a damned moron who thinks he needs to split 50/50 (or very close to it) reps between him and Williams, so as long as that doofus does that, he will be an RB2, that occasionally has RB1 (and insane) weeks. As for where people value him? He can't currently crack my starting lineup due to that uncertainty, but he is so much more talented that Fournette, but Fournette gets a billion carries per game, so I can't bench him. If you look at his scouting combine metrics from 2017, you will see he scored very similarly to Kamara. Difference is Sean Peyton knows how to use a talent like that.

No. He's not.

[Vcize]

I thought it was interesting to look at median QB scores. Rodgers obviously has that one massive 48 point game making his mean/PPG look like he is still a reasonable low QB1. Obviously you still got those points and they counted, but the reality is on a week to week basis Rodgers has been really poor this year. Mid/low QB2 territory.

Obviously the top QBs are blowing him away, but I thought it was interesting how far his median score was behind other low QB1/high QB2 type of quarterbacks.

Median QB scores:
Stafford - 26.4
Kyler - 24.0
Ryan - 22.3
Jameis - 21.9
Tannehill - 21.7
Wentz - 19.9
Allen - 19.7
Rodgers - 15.8

Rodgers has been really really poor for fantasy purposes in 6 of his 10 starts this year. Obviously superflex changes things but in 1qb leagues he's been a huge liability. On a typical week you're basically giving up 5-10 points against the WORST other QB starters in most leagues, not to mention how far of a hole you're starting in on a typical week if you're going up against a team with one of the good QBs.

[PTW32]

I thought it was interesting to look at mean QB scores. Rodgers obviously has that one massive 48 point game making his mean/PPG look like he is still a reasonable low QB1. Obviously you still got those points and they counted, but the reality is on a week to week basis Rodgers has been really poor this year. Mid/low QB2 territory.

Obviously the top QBs are blowing him away, but I thought it was interesting how far his mean score was behind other low QB1/high QB2 type of quarterbacks.

Mean QB scores:
Stafford - 26.4
Kyler - 24.0
Ryan - 22.3
Jameis - 21.9
Tannehill - 21.7
Wentz - 19.9
Allen - 19.7
Rodgers - 15.8

Rodgers has been really really poor for fantasy purposes in 6 of his 10 starts this year. Obviously superflex changes things but in 1qb leagues he's been a huge liability. On a typical week you're basically giving up 5-10 points against the WORST other QB starters in most leagues, not to mention how far of a hole you're starting in on a typical week if you're going up against a team with one of the good QBs.

I'm curious of the math you are using to get these numbers. Its poissible that your leagues scoring is very different than mine but I have both Winston and Rodgers is out scoring Winton while you have it the other way by 6 points per game

[Vcize]

I thought it was interesting to look at mean QB scores. Rodgers obviously has that one massive 48 point game making his mean/PPG look like he is still a reasonable low QB1. Obviously you still got those points and they counted, but the reality is on a week to week basis Rodgers has been really poor this year. Mid/low QB2 territory.

Obviously the top QBs are blowing him away, but I thought it was interesting how far his mean score was behind other low QB1/high QB2 type of quarterbacks.

Mean QB scores:
Stafford - 26.4
Kyler - 24.0
Ryan - 22.3
Jameis - 21.9
Tannehill - 21.7
Wentz - 19.9
Allen - 19.7
Rodgers - 15.8

Rodgers has been really really poor for fantasy purposes in 6 of his 10 starts this year. Obviously superflex changes things but in 1qb leagues he's been a huge liability. On a typical week you're basically giving up 5-10 points against the WORST other QB starters in most leagues, not to mention how far of a hole you're starting in on a typical week if you're going up against a team with one of the good QBs.

I'm curious of the math you are using to get these numbers. Its poissible that your leagues scoring is very different than mine but I have both Winston and Rodgers is out scoring Winton while you have it the other way by 6 points per game

I typed mean, I meant to type median. Brain fart on the terminology. I think median is a great way to look at what you can expect weekly but then when I was typing I wrote mean by mistake. The numbers I referenced above are median scores.

[badbuddah]

A Jones the real deal going forward? Or are people still unsure of him?

He's the real deal, Kamara level talent, but the situation is murky. LaFleur is a damned moron who thinks he needs to split 50/50 (or very close to it) reps between him and Williams, so as long as that doofus does that, he will be an RB2, that occasionally has RB1 (and insane) weeks. As for where people value him? He can't currently crack my starting lineup due to that uncertainty, but he is so much more talented that Fournette, but Fournette gets a billion carries per game, so I can't bench him. If you look at his scouting combine metrics from 2017, you will see he scored very similarly to Kamara. Difference is Sean Peyton knows how to use a talent like that.

No. He's not.

Yes. He is. Oh look see I can use bold too guys!!

[moishetreats]

I thought it was interesting to look at mean QB scores. Rodgers obviously has that one massive 48 point game making his mean/PPG look like he is still a reasonable low QB1. Obviously you still got those points and they counted, but the reality is on a week to week basis Rodgers has been really poor this year. Mid/low QB2 territory.

Obviously the top QBs are blowing him away, but I thought it was interesting how far his mean score was behind other low QB1/high QB2 type of quarterbacks.

Mean QB scores:
Stafford - 26.4
Kyler - 24.0
Ryan - 22.3
Jameis - 21.9
Tannehill - 21.7
Wentz - 19.9
Allen - 19.7
Rodgers - 15.8

Rodgers has been really really poor for fantasy purposes in 6 of his 10 starts this year. Obviously superflex changes things but in 1qb leagues he's been a huge liability. On a typical week you're basically giving up 5-10 points against the WORST other QB starters in most leagues, not to mention how far of a hole you're starting in on a typical week if you're going up against a team with one of the good QBs.

I'm curious of the math you are using to get these numbers. Its poissible that your leagues scoring is very different than mine but I have both Winston and Rodgers is out scoring Winton while you have it the other way by 6 points per game

I typed mean, I meant to type median. Brain fart on the terminology. I think median is a great way to look at what you can expect weekly but then when I was typing I wrote mean by mistake. The numbers I referenced above are median scores.

I think that you're finding evidence to support a narrative that otherwise isn't there.

Anyone who has watched the Packers this season knows without a doubt that the offense was at best a work-in-progress and at worst abysmal the first three weeks. That came as no surprise to those who follow the Packers throughout the season. The most common prediction was that it would take about 4-6 weeks for LaFleur's offense to take shape. Indeed, I think that it's far more convincing to suggest that the first three weeks were anomalous rather than typical.

The numbers bear that out: By my scoring system, in his first three games, Rodger's median was 13.30. His season-long median, by my scoring system, is 14.83. Since then, Rodgers' median by my scoring system is 20.32. By your scoring system, that number would assuredly be higher.

I know that cherry-picking games to include or exclude is usually poor practice, but I think it's necessary here. I'm buying Rodgers' last seven games as far more indicative of his likely expected play than his first three games. Note that he even has three games in the last seven that would fall BELOW his median from his first three games!

As I wrote in an earlier post, Rodgers looks like his old self. His play is elite again, and his per-game fantasy ceiling is as high as anyone's. The challenge from a fantasy perspective -- but a GREAT development from the Packers' perspective! -- is that Green Bay has a reliable running game (which is the focus of the offense) and a defense that isn't purely a sieve for its opponents. LaFleur relies on his ground game and defense first and second and Rodgers third.

In the end, his median (or mean or whatever metric you want to use) is up with the QB1s. He's not giving up the five points per game that you argued. Rather, his consistency isn't there -- and, as I wrote in my earlier post, likely won't be this season.

Good for the Packers and for Rodgers' longevity, not as good for fantasy owners.

[AussieMate]

I don't think Jones is as talented as Kamara but I really like the "Kamara Lite" comparisons I've read on these boards a few times. I also wouldn't want Jones to get over 75% of the workload, I think he's best when he is being spelled every now and then. Maybe a 65-35 split or something like that would be ideal.

[themburns]

Aaron Rodgers QB finishes in 2019 (6 TD Passing/-4 Interceptions)
QB23, QB13, QB22, QB4, QB21, QB11, QB1, QB3, QB20, QB22

By the numbers, it seems more likely in a given week Rodgers is going to have a QB2 week than a QB1 week. What is particularly concerning to me are that finishes of QB21, QB20, and QB22 came in bye weeks, so that's bottom 33% percentile. To be fair, without Adams he was throwing to a set of no name receivers and just because he's not elevating them doesn't mean he has some value.

The other thing people don't want to talk about with Aaron Rodgers is his concussion history. He has three concussions on record in the NFL, and he started playing at a time when the concussion testing in the league was a joke. I would not be surprised if he picked up one in college, and as a rule of thumb, I consider anyone who played high school football likely had a concussion. The cost of doing business, I suppose. Still, I wouldn't want him on my rosters for that reason alone.

[Vcize]

I think that you're finding evidence to support a narrative that otherwise isn't there.

Anyone who has watched the Packers this season knows without a doubt that the offense was at best a work-in-progress and at worst abysmal the first three weeks. That came as no surprise to those who follow the Packers throughout the season. The most common prediction was that it would take about 4-6 weeks for LaFleur's offense to take shape. Indeed, I think that it's far more convincing to suggest that the first three weeks were anomalous rather than typical.

The numbers bear that out: By my scoring system, in his first three games, Rodger's median was 13.30. His season-long median, by my scoring system, is 14.83. Since then, Rodgers' median by my scoring system is 20.32. By your scoring system, that number would assuredly be higher.

I know that cherry-picking games to include or exclude is usually poor practice, but I think it's necessary here. I'm buying Rodgers' last seven games as far more indicative of his likely expected play than his first three games. Note that he even has three games in the last seven that would fall BELOW his median from his first three games!

As I wrote in an earlier post, Rodgers looks like his old self. His play is elite again, and his per-game fantasy ceiling is as high as anyone's. The challenge from a fantasy perspective -- but a GREAT development from the Packers' perspective! -- is that Green Bay has a reliable running game (which is the focus of the offense) and a defense that isn't purely a sieve for its opponents. LaFleur relies on his ground game and defense first and second and Rodgers third.

In the end, his median (or mean or whatever metric you want to use) is up with the QB1s. He's not giving up the five points per game that you argued. Rather, his consistency isn't there -- and, as I wrote in my earlier post, likely won't be this season.

Good for the Packers and for Rodgers' longevity, not as good for fantasy owners.

Rodgers has been below 15 fantasy points in 3 of his last 6 games so it's not like adjusting to the new offense has made things peachy.

That's more games below 15 fantasy points in just the last 6 games than almost all of the other low QB1/high QB2 types have put up ALL SEASON. And the reality is because of his name Rodgers is still being valued much more highly than those low QB1/high QB2 types we are comparing to here.

As for the reasons for it, that is less important to me. I wasn't intending to disparage Aaron Rodgers the person so much as note the vast gulf between his value and actual performance (and his value was even higher at the time this discussion began where he was still being treated as a top 5 QB despite a trend far away from that in performance). If it's his coach prefering defense and a running game to Rodgers slinging the ball around that really makes no difference to me becaust at 8-2 he is likely going to be tied to this coach for a while, if not the remainder of his career.

[Lotto4Life]

LaFleur is a damned moron who thinks he needs to split 50/50 (or very close to it) reps between him and Williams, so as long as that doofus does that, he will be an RB2, that occasionally has RB1 (and insane) weeks.

Green Bay is 8-2 with a relatively fresh RB.