Player A vs. Player B

[kmbryant09]

Thought this would be a fun exercise:

Player A:
2nd round draft pick in 2017, currently 24 years old.
Based on Player Profiler, he tested in the 74th percentile in speed score but just the 12th percentile in burst score. His best comparisons (based on testing numbers) were Tevin Coleman & Jamaal Charles.
Between 2017 - 2019, he's started 20 career games, while missing 17 games to injury; here is his average stat line in games started:
15 carries / 75 yards / .45 TDs / 3.5 catches / 29 yards / .1 rec TDs
That's 15.2 points per game (.5 PPR), which is 244 points over a 16-game season.
Based on last year's stats, that would make him RB #8 over a full season.

Player B:
4th round draft pick in 2017, currently 23 years old.
Based on Player Profiler, he tested in the 76th percentile in speed score and 73rd percentile in burst score. His best comparisons (based on testing numbers) were Marshawn Lynch & Todd Gurley.
Between 2017 - 2019, he's started 17 career games, missing 6 games due to injury; here is his average stat line in games started:
17 carries / 81 yards / .65 TDs / 1.5 catches / 9 yards / .1 rec TDs
That's 13.8 points per game (.5 PPR), which is 221 points over a 16-game season.
Based on last year's stats, that would make him RB #11 over a full season.

Player A is Dalvin Cook. Widely ranked as a top12 RB coming into this season and based on his numbers this year, he might be creeping toward top5 status after the big-4 of Barkley / Kamara / Zeke / McCaffrey.

Player B is Marlon Mack. Mostly an afterthought in the dynasty community, his September ADP put him as RB 24, after guys like D. Freeman, D. Guice, S. Michel, M. Sanders.

Last night Mack got a chance to shine in a big primetime game, and he dominated the game with major help from that O-Line. He showed Leveon Bell-like patience behind the LOS, elite change of direction ability, great acceleration through the hole, and consistently pushed piles forward (including a key 4th down conversion in which he pushed his lineman through 2 defenders). Will that exposure finally get the dynasty community to come around on this guy?

What's his worth right now?

[Pac_Eddy]

Mack hasn't shown the receiving chops that Cook has, meaning he has a lower floor.

I like Mack though, and the Colts showed me they trust him by NOT adding any major competition this off season, so they are planning on having him as their RB1.

He's worth a high first as of right now IMO. Maybe more as there are so few RBs getting the number of carries he does.

[abloom]

While I don't necessarily disagree with you that Mack is undervalued, I think that the push that Dalvin is getting to be a top teired RB is due to the nature of his injury, ACL tear followed by "ACL compensation" injuries. You can argue that his stats from last year were depressed due to him not actually being at 100% after the ACL recovery, while this is not the case for Mack.

I also think its important to see where the points come from (and I'm going to make bad generalizations and comparisons here). Dalvin's production this year has come from the start to finish of games, whereas Marlon's production has come when his team is ahead and running the ball to take time off the clock.

Do I think Dalvin should be in the top 4-5 RB conversation? Yes. Do I think he should be in the conversation for RB#1 overall? No, not with a torn ACL on his resume, Barkley and CMC are easily ahead of him for me, with Kamara likely at #3.

Do I think that Mack is being undervalued? Yes. Do I think that KC's run defense is terrible? YES!, Do I think that Mack is a RB1 (top 12)? Yes. Do I think he's top 6? No.

[lukkynumber13]

Mack has definitely improved and matured as a runner. As a colts fan, I am very impressed by how he has improved his game.

[Mjvb5]

Mack as the RB24 is undervalued yes. But Mack is nowhere near the level that Cook is. You can't watch the two play and put them in near the same talent level.

[Vcize]

Yeah you seem to be just glossing over the fact that Cook is RB3 in PPG right now while Mack is RB19.

Cook had a down year last year while playing with leg injuries that slowed him down. That's the only thing that makes the numbers even kind of line up. Outside of that he's been a top 5 RB which Mack has never been.

[kmbryant09]

It's interesting to see some of the early replies, and lines up with the general consensus. Seems like we only look on the bright side with someone like Cook (making excuses for his down year last year, pointing out his numbers in the current 5-game sample size), but we do not make the same concessions for someone like Mack (who battled injuries himself, who doesn't have the benefit of 5 TDs to his ledger this season, who's team still prefers using a rotation at the RB position).

I want to be clear, I'm not making a case as to why I believe Mack is equal or better than Cook. I don't expect Mack to produce on the level that I expect Cook to moving forward, and would happily trade Mack for Cook straight up if I was ever given the opportunity. Rather, I used Cook as an example to try and tell a story as to why Marlon Mack is underrated and overlooked. Mack was RB #11 last year and is RB #15 this year despite missing 1/2 a game. He just seems like one of those guys that the community continues to dismiss and write off, and I'm not really sure why.

[abloom]

It's interesting to see some of the early replies, and lines up with the general consensus. Seems like we only look on the bright side with someone like Cook (making excuses for his down year last year, pointing out his numbers in the current 5-game sample size), but we do not make the same concessions for someone like Mack (who battled injuries himself, who doesn't have the benefit of 5 TDs to his ledger this season, who's team still prefers using a rotation at the RB position).

I want to be clear, I'm not making a case as to why I believe Mack is equal or better than Cook. I don't expect Mack to produce on the level that I expect Cook to moving forward, and would happily trade Mack for Cook straight up if I was ever given the opportunity. Rather, I used Cook as an example to try and tell a story as to why Marlon Mack is underrated and overlooked. Mack was RB #11 last year and is RB #15 this year despite missing 1/2 a game. He just seems like one of those guys that the community continues to dismiss and write off, and I'm not really sure why.

I think i gave two very good reasons. Nature/Type of injuries are not the same, and type of usage is also not the same.

[Vcize]

It's interesting to see some of the early replies, and lines up with the general consensus. Seems like we only look on the bright side with someone like Cook (making excuses for his down year last year, pointing out his numbers in the current 5-game sample size), but we do not make the same concessions for someone like Mack (who battled injuries himself, who doesn't have the benefit of 5 TDs to his ledger this season, who's team still prefers using a rotation at the RB position).

I want to be clear, I'm not making a case as to why I believe Mack is equal or better than Cook. I don't expect Mack to produce on the level that I expect Cook to moving forward, and would happily trade Mack for Cook straight up if I was ever given the opportunity. Rather, I used Cook as an example to try and tell a story as to why Marlon Mack is underrated and overlooked. Mack was RB #11 last year and is RB #15 this year despite missing 1/2 a game. He just seems like one of those guys that the community continues to dismiss and write off, and I'm not really sure why.

Well current 5 game sample size is extremely relevant. I know because I made this comparison a little over a year ago about CMC and Duke Johnson. As it turns out CMC's best numbers coming right at the end of the sample was a big deal.

DJ Chark's career: 41-659-5
Anthony Miller's career: 41-503-7

Should the two be valued equally, or is it notable that Chark's best numbers made up most of the gap in our most recent sample of games? It seems likely that it is the latter and I doubt you'll be able to sell many Chark owners that Miller should be worth the same because their career production is similar.

And then, as much as hate how the term is often thrown around, there is the old eye test. Mack looks like a solid NFL running back. Cook looks like an inhuman with short area burst and agility that can only be matched/bettered by the very top dynasty running backs.

[kmbryant09]

It's interesting to see some of the early replies, and lines up with the general consensus. Seems like we only look on the bright side with someone like Cook (making excuses for his down year last year, pointing out his numbers in the current 5-game sample size), but we do not make the same concessions for someone like Mack (who battled injuries himself, who doesn't have the benefit of 5 TDs to his ledger this season, who's team still prefers using a rotation at the RB position).

I want to be clear, I'm not making a case as to why I believe Mack is equal or better than Cook. I don't expect Mack to produce on the level that I expect Cook to moving forward, and would happily trade Mack for Cook straight up if I was ever given the opportunity. Rather, I used Cook as an example to try and tell a story as to why Marlon Mack is underrated and overlooked. Mack was RB #11 last year and is RB #15 this year despite missing 1/2 a game. He just seems like one of those guys that the community continues to dismiss and write off, and I'm not really sure why.

Well current 5 game sample size is extremely relevant. I know because I made this comparison a little over a year ago about CMC and Duke Johnson. As it turns out CMC's best numbers coming right at the end of the sample was a big deal.

DJ Chark's career: 41-659-5
Anthony Miller's career: 41-503-7

Should the two be valued equally, or is it notable that Chark's best numbers made up most of the gap in our most recent sample of games? It seems likely that it is the latter and I doubt you'll be able to sell many Chark owners that Miller should be worth the same because their career production is similar.

And then, as much as hate how the term is often thrown around, there is the old eye test. Mack looks like a solid NFL running back. Cook looks like an inhuman with short area burst and agility that can only be matched/bettered by the very top dynasty running backs.

I agree that the 5-game sample size should be given more weight considering it's a new season - players get better (or worse) year-to-year, situations improve, teams change philosophies, etc.

But I also think we'll be looking back on some of these threads in 3 months and saying to ourselves "yeah, we ended up overvaluing some guys (like Chark, Carson, Henry, Cook, Lamar, Godwin, Kupp, etc.) because of their production through the first 5 weeks" - regression is bound to happen - positive regression for some talented players who have underachieved so far (Diggs, OBJ, Baker, Mixon, etc.), and negative regression for some overachieving players (like some of the ones mentioned before).

I don't want to take this conversation too far down the rabbit hole discussing sample-sizes, and I'm not trying to make this thread about why I think Cook is overrated (not even necessarily the case).

Again, why is Marlon Mack not a borderline top12 RB in dynasty?

[Vcize]

It's interesting to see some of the early replies, and lines up with the general consensus. Seems like we only look on the bright side with someone like Cook (making excuses for his down year last year, pointing out his numbers in the current 5-game sample size), but we do not make the same concessions for someone like Mack (who battled injuries himself, who doesn't have the benefit of 5 TDs to his ledger this season, who's team still prefers using a rotation at the RB position).

I want to be clear, I'm not making a case as to why I believe Mack is equal or better than Cook. I don't expect Mack to produce on the level that I expect Cook to moving forward, and would happily trade Mack for Cook straight up if I was ever given the opportunity. Rather, I used Cook as an example to try and tell a story as to why Marlon Mack is underrated and overlooked. Mack was RB #11 last year and is RB #15 this year despite missing 1/2 a game. He just seems like one of those guys that the community continues to dismiss and write off, and I'm not really sure why.

Well current 5 game sample size is extremely relevant. I know because I made this comparison a little over a year ago about CMC and Duke Johnson. As it turns out CMC's best numbers coming right at the end of the sample was a big deal.

DJ Chark's career: 41-659-5
Anthony Miller's career: 41-503-7

Should the two be valued equally, or is it notable that Chark's best numbers made up most of the gap in our most recent sample of games? It seems likely that it is the latter and I doubt you'll be able to sell many Chark owners that Miller should be worth the same because their career production is similar.

And then, as much as hate how the term is often thrown around, there is the old eye test. Mack looks like a solid NFL running back. Cook looks like an inhuman with short area burst and agility that can only be matched/bettered by the very top dynasty running backs.

I agree that the 5-game sample size should be given more weight considering it's a new season - players get better (or worse) year-to-year, situations improve, teams change philosophies, etc.

But I also think we'll be looking back on some of these threads in 3 months and saying to ourselves "yeah, we ended up overvaluing some guys (like Chark, Carson, Henry, Cook, Lamar, Godwin, Kupp, etc.) because of their production through the first 5 weeks" - regression is bound to happen - positive regression for some talented players who have underachieved so far (Diggs, OBJ, Baker, Mixon, etc.), and negative regression for some overachieving players (like some of the ones mentioned before).

I don't want to take this conversation too far down the rabbit hole discussing sample-sizes, and I'm not trying to make this thread about why I think Cook is overrated (not even necessarily the case).

Again, why is Marlon Mack not a borderline top12 RB in dynasty?

I agree that some guys will regress in both directions (both up and down), but in fantasy football terms where a 100 game sample would mean the guy is retired by the time we are done, 5 weeks into a new season is a pretty decent sample when compared to 16 games of a previous season.

If we look back at 5 weeks into last year we will surely see some guys that regressed in each direction (Calvin Ridley as WR6 at this point last year, for instance) but for the most part it was just the new norm for guys making new appearances up at the top or bottom. Patrick Mahomes really was an elite QB, Tyreek really had taken the next step to be true difference maker, Cooper Kupp and Adam Thielen really were WR1's, Jarvis Landry really wasn't going to be a WR1 anymore, etc.

Again, why is Marlon Mack not a borderline top12 RB in dynasty?

A guy with less hype/pedigree coming in is always going to take a little longer for the FF community to accept what they are seeing, so I agree with you there. But I think the biggest knock on Mack is his lack of threat as a receiver. With Jordan Howard and Sony Michel, I think a lot of people still have fresh in their minds how quickly the fantasy community can sour on a guy that doesn't catch passes.

Mack was a better receiver than those guys in college, but I can certainly see the worry on how the bottom could drop out of his value quickly if he shows even the smallest sign of struggles as a runner when he doesn't have a bunch of receptions to fall back on.

Mack still hasn't done half of what Howard did in his first two years as a guy drafted similarly late in the draft, and all it took was a few consecutive 13-37 and 18-54 type games with 0 or 1 receptions for the fantasy community to decide a 2 down banger had little value to them going forward. Assuming PPR, of course.

[Phaded]

Cook is more valuable than Mack and is the superior player.

However, I'm much more likely to pay the price for Mack as I won't touch Cook at his price.

That said, I like Mack but that Colts offensive line is currently insanely good.

[Cameron Giles]

Mack's developed into a legitimately good RB who just happens to play behind a great offensive line. Cook is the better player, but it's not by a ton.

Mack has solid receiving skills as well, but the Colts aren't going to use him every down. So, you're always going to see Hines and Wilkins sprinkled in.

[FantasyFreak]

Dalvin Cook's combine numbers are irrelevant at this point. He's shows elite traits and explosiveness on a football field. Matt Kelley himself says he can't explain why Cook looks the way he does on the field and his combine performance. My theory is Dalvin Cook was on ether for the combine.

[Pac_Eddy]

Dalvin Cook's combine numbers are irrelevant at this point. He's shows elite traits and explosiveness on a football field. Matt Kelley himself says he can't explain why Cook looks the way he does on the field and his combine performance. My theory is Dalvin Cook was on ether for the combine.

Some players are better with game speed than in tests. This is why combine stats are nice but only one factor in the equation. Game tape is at least as big of a factor as combine or pro day numbers for IMO.