Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

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Goirish374
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Goirish374 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:00 pm

TheNuts wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:46 pm
Thanks for that. I didn't realize it's an issue. But Brady and Brees are proving that it's still nowhere near the issue it is in baseball.

Reid can use the excuse that he has never won a super bowl because he didn't want his qbs arm getting tired in the second half of games?
i'm just chiming in on that one side point. arm fatigue is a concern in football, too.

although...it's not like they got blown out of the playoffs last year. they lost in OT to the dynastic force of nature that is Belichick without getting an OT possession. its hard to blame the offensive play calling there. the 4th quarter was electrifying by any measure, involving all manner of football drama.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Phaded » Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:39 pm

TheNuts wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:46 pm
Goirish374 wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:36 pm
TheNuts wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:27 pm
I also have never heard of a qb burning out his arm from passing too much. It's not like pitching.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-nfl-te ... 1503323944
Thanks for that. I didn't realize it's an issue. But Brady and Brees are proving that it's still nowhere near the issue it is in baseball.

Reid can use the excuse that he has never won a super bowl because he didn't want his qbs arm getting tired in the second half of games?
Brees & Brady also have nowhere near the velocity on their throws that they once had, their high level of play comes more from football intelligence than it does arm strength.

One of the biggest qualities of Mahomes is his arm strength, can he learn the game like Brady & Brees, sure but it remains to be seen.

Mahomes arm talent is one of the things that make him so dangerous.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby mild » Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:00 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:53 am
All that being said, there has to be some amount of statistical regression coming at some point. He'll still be the best pick every year for leading fantasy in scoring and be the top QB, but he'll have "normal elite years" like 4,500/35 TDs rather than "historically elite years" like he put up last year and is on pace for this year. Or maybe I'm wrong and he's going to be the QB/football version of Wayne Gretzky and completely obliterate every statistical mark and lap the field.
This is the new normal.

There is no statistical regression coming outside of injury.

The rules of the NFL have been changed dramatically to allow for more speed, less contact, and more space. Smaller players that wouldn't have survived "over the middle" in the 90's can now thrive. Andy Reid is the premier designer of space plays. The Kansas City Chiefs have the most speed in the league at WR and TE.

And with perhaps the best arm we've ever seen in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes has arrived at the perfect time to pulp the oranges and juice the stats.

This is the new normal.

This is Sparta.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:47 pm

mild wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:00 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:53 am
All that being said, there has to be some amount of statistical regression coming at some point. He'll still be the best pick every year for leading fantasy in scoring and be the top QB, but he'll have "normal elite years" like 4,500/35 TDs rather than "historically elite years" like he put up last year and is on pace for this year. Or maybe I'm wrong and he's going to be the QB/football version of Wayne Gretzky and completely obliterate every statistical mark and lap the field.
This is the new normal.

There is no statistical regression coming outside of injury.

The rules of the NFL have been changed dramatically to allow for more speed, less contact, and more space. Smaller players that wouldn't have survived "over the middle" in the 90's can now thrive. Andy Reid is the premier designer of space plays. The Kansas City Chiefs have the most speed in the league at WR and TE.

And with perhaps the best arm we've ever seen in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes has arrived at the perfect time to pulp the oranges and juice the stats.

This is the new normal.

This is Sparta.
As great as he is, I doubt he's going to AVERAGE 50 TDs per year. I do think he's a good bet for 35+ a year though, which is still pretty insane.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby mild » Sat Sep 28, 2019 4:34 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:47 pm
As great as he is, I doubt he's going to AVERAGE 50 TDs per year. I do think he's a good bet for 35+ a year though, which is still pretty insane.
What sort of odds would a bookie give you right now for him to have 50+ this year? OK, what if it was this year AND next year?

The fact that it's even a viable bet that might give an oddsmaker half-a-pause has to tell you something.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby TheNuts » Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:44 am

Phaded wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:39 pm
TheNuts wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:46 pm
Thanks for that. I didn't realize it's an issue. But Brady and Brees are proving that it's still nowhere near the issue it is in baseball.

Reid can use the excuse that he has never won a super bowl because he didn't want his qbs arm getting tired in the second half of games?
Brees & Brady also have nowhere near the velocity on their throws that they once had, their high level of play comes more from football intelligence than it does arm strength.

One of the biggest qualities of Mahomes is his arm strength, can he learn the game like Brady & Brees, sure but it remains to be seen.

Mahomes arm talent is one of the things that make him so dangerous.
They are 40 years old. 40 year Olds cant thriw as hard as 24 year Olds. It does affect some guys for sure, since some guys fall off sooner than others. I'm not going to assign any blame other than age to Brees and Brady dip in velocity. Maybe with qbs passing 50 times a game every game it may become more prominent.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby TheNuts » Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:48 am

Goirish374 wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:00 pm
TheNuts wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:46 pm
Thanks for that. I didn't realize it's an issue. But Brady and Brees are proving that it's still nowhere near the issue it is in baseball.

Reid can use the excuse that he has never won a super bowl because he didn't want his qbs arm getting tired in the second half of games?
i'm just chiming in on that one side point. arm fatigue is a concern in football, too.

although...it's not like they got blown out of the playoffs last year. they lost in OT to the dynastic force of nature that is Belichick without getting an OT possession. its hard to blame the offensive play calling there. the 4th quarter was electrifying by any measure, involving all manner of football drama.
I don't recall if that one game was the offensive play calling, but the 2017 botched playoff game against the Titans was. I think we have had a pretty clear pattern to show that most of the time Reid is going to screw up his team when it matters.

That playoff loss to the Titans also showed Reid thought he was better at coaching than his players were at playing. Hill touched the ball once or twice the whole game.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Goirish374 » Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:44 am

TheNuts wrote:
Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:48 am
I don't recall if that one game was the offensive play calling, but the 2017 botched playoff game against the Titans was.
I’m an educated man but i cannot speak intelligently on the 2017 KCC playoffs.

I think their most recent playoff is important because they came within a hair’s breadth of winning which would have put them in the Super Bowl, it is the most recent example we have and so could be construed as change—and its also the most relevant example of the Mahomes/Kelce/Hunt Clone offense that we have.
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The Thread That Started It All: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=84709 (warning: high drama!)

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Jigga94 » Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:22 am

Goirish374 wrote:
Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:44 am
TheNuts wrote:
Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:48 am
I don't recall if that one game was the offensive play calling, but the 2017 botched playoff game against the Titans was.
I’m an educated man but i cannot speak intelligently on the 2017 KCC playoffs.

I think their most recent playoff is important because they came within a hair’s breadth of winning which would have put them in the Super Bowl, it is the most recent example we have and so could be construed as change—and its also the most relevant example of the Mahomes/Kelce/Hunt Clone offense that we have.
Gotta think if KC went to the SB last year, they win
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Phaded » Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:45 am

And this is why you never extrapolate. Just like that, he gets 1 TD across two games and the extrapolated numbers are shot.

(Note: not suggesting it's time to worry at all)
Do you want a logical debate?
You are in the wrong place.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby JoshGordonsDealer » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:04 am

Phaded wrote:
Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:45 am
And this is why you never extrapolate. Just like that, he gets 1 TD across two games and the extrapolated numbers are shot.

(Note: not suggesting it's time to worry at all)
I disagree. I think it’s time to sell sell sell for whatever you can get. If you own him in one of my leagues, it’s ESPECIALLY time to find a buyer like me.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:28 am

COULD he throw for 50 tds a year? Probably. WILL he though is a completely different story. I think dropping back and taking hits (and thus getting banged up and/or higher chance of a real injury) from waiting for all these deeper routes to develop is going to start getting old after a while. Would not be surprised if in the long run the team starts managing him a bit more and saving him for the playoffs, assuming the team is good enough for them to do that. Who knows, they might even draft a running back that is good next year.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:34 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:28 am
COULD he throw for 50 tds a year? Probably. WILL he though is a completely different story. I think dropping back and taking hits (and thus getting banged up and/or higher chance of a real injury) from waiting for all these deeper routes to develop is going to start getting old after a while. Would not be surprised if in the long run the team starts managing him a bit more and saving him for the playoffs, assuming the team is good enough for them to do that. Who knows, they might even draft a running back that is good next year.
I hope they do get a RB, Mahomes was better with Hunt. Nothing has changed with Mahomes, he's still far and away the QB1 overall and maybe the most valuable fantasy QB ever, but he was never going to AVERAGE 50 TDs.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Mjvb5 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:41 am

50 TDs I don't think will be normal, 40+ and 5000+ yards yeah i can see that being a typically average year for him
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Weknownothing86 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:33 am

If they used Damien Williams more he would be averaging 70 Tds a year
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