Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Blueboy » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:58 am

MrUbuto wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:36 pm
Ice wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:53 pm
Haha

He was wide open a few times but errant throws. ☹️
Yea lamar came back to reality a little bit, to be expected

Also I dont think the KC defence is as bad as everyone thinks
KC defense is "bad" in that it doesn't have lockdown players in the secondary. But the scheme is very solid there, and worked effectively last Sunday. Pressuring Lamar and giving him very difficult reads, so even if his receivers were sometimes able to get open he wouldn't have an easy throw. Also helped that Andrews wasn't playing to his usual level (he looks hurt).

Plus having Chris Jones and Frank Clark up front has really helped them cover up some holes that were exposed last season.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Tvols » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:48 pm

Seems to be coming back down to earth ..

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Vcize » Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:56 pm

His efficiency has been surprisingly bad since he surprised the worst team in NFL history for two long catches.

Last 3 weeks are 29 targets resulting in a 48% catch rate and a paultry 5.4 YPT.

I'm surprised people are as high on him as they are. I like him a good bit too but his value has eclipsed his production by a lot. He's still a prospect but people are treating him like he already broke out.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:08 pm

Vcize wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:56 pm
His efficiency has been surprisingly bad since he surprised the worst team in NFL history for two long catches.

Last 3 weeks are 29 targets resulting in a 48% catch rate and a paultry 5.4 YPT.

I'm surprised people are as high on him as they are. I like him a good bit too but his value has eclipsed his production by a lot. He's still a prospect but people are treating him like he already broke out.
I have him in best ball, where I like him. Jackson is still a work in progress, and Brown is a rookie. It's very early for both of them. People tend to sway too far one way then the other based on a few games of ups and downs.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:44 pm

Vcize wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:56 pm
His efficiency has been surprisingly bad since he surprised the worst team in NFL history for two long catches.

Last 3 weeks are 29 targets resulting in a 48% catch rate and a paultry 5.4 YPT.

I'm surprised people are as high on him as they are. I like him a good bit too but his value has eclipsed his production by a lot. He's still a prospect but people are treating him like he already broke out.
It was more Lamar coming back to earth than Hollywood. He can't catch with his feet.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:08 am

Vcize wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:56 pm
His efficiency has been surprisingly bad since he surprised the worst team in NFL history for two long catches.

Last 3 weeks are 29 targets resulting in a 48% catch rate and a paultry 5.4 YPT.

I'm surprised people are as high on him as they are. I like him a good bit too but his value has eclipsed his production by a lot. He's still a prospect but people are treating him like he already broke out.
Because you could've got the 1st WR off the board, who now has a significant chance to lead all rookie WR's in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.....for a mere 2nd round pick during the summer.

That's why people are excited.

There are going to be ups and downs just like every rookie has, but the talent is obvious and has big upside going forward.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Vcize » Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:58 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:08 am
Vcize wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:56 pm
His efficiency has been surprisingly bad since he surprised the worst team in NFL history for two long catches.

Last 3 weeks are 29 targets resulting in a 48% catch rate and a paultry 5.4 YPT.

I'm surprised people are as high on him as they are. I like him a good bit too but his value has eclipsed his production by a lot. He's still a prospect but people are treating him like he already broke out.
Because you could've got the 1st WR off the board, who now has a significant chance to lead all rookie WR's in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.....for a mere 2nd round pick during the summer.

That's why people are excited.

There are going to be ups and downs just like every rookie has, but the talent is obvious and has big upside going forward.
Oh no doubt, he has shown enough potential that he was a bargain at his offseason prices, and I ended up with him in about 60% of my leagues because of it (he's actually my most owned player across all leagues).

But his value has far eclipsed "worth more than he was going for in rookie drafts". In the leagues I don't have him where I inquired the asking price is huge. People are beyond "excited", they are basically calling him a hit already, when really other than target share (which won't continue if the efficiency doesn't improve) all of the concerns people had with him are still there.

I honestly doubt most people even realized that he's been so bad since the Miami game. The general consensus seems to be that he's playing awesome when he's really not.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Vcize » Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:03 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:44 pm
Vcize wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:56 pm
His efficiency has been surprisingly bad since he surprised the worst team in NFL history for two long catches.

Last 3 weeks are 29 targets resulting in a 48% catch rate and a paultry 5.4 YPT.

I'm surprised people are as high on him as they are. I like him a good bit too but his value has eclipsed his production by a lot. He's still a prospect but people are treating him like he already broke out.
It was more Lamar coming back to earth than Hollywood. He can't catch with his feet.
In the last 3 games...
Hollywood: 48% catch rate, 5.4 yards per target
Andrews: 63% catch rate, 6.5 yards per target
Snead+Boykin+Roberts: 76% catch rate, 10.9 yards per target

Obviously Hollywood is drawing tougher coverage, but Jackson can clearly get guys the ball when they are getting open.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:41 am

Vcize wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:03 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:44 pm
Vcize wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:56 pm
His efficiency has been surprisingly bad since he surprised the worst team in NFL history for two long catches.

Last 3 weeks are 29 targets resulting in a 48% catch rate and a paultry 5.4 YPT.

I'm surprised people are as high on him as they are. I like him a good bit too but his value has eclipsed his production by a lot. He's still a prospect but people are treating him like he already broke out.
It was more Lamar coming back to earth than Hollywood. He can't catch with his feet.
In the last 3 games...
Hollywood: 48% catch rate, 5.4 yards per target
Andrews: 63% catch rate, 6.5 yards per target
Snead+Boykin+Roberts: 76% catch rate, 10.9 yards per target

Obviously Hollywood is drawing tougher coverage, but Jackson can clearly get guys the ball when they are getting open.
Could also be where the targets are. Lamar had a tough time throwing outside the numbers last year. A TE should have a higher catch rate.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:04 am

Vcize wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:58 am
Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:08 am
Vcize wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:56 pm
His efficiency has been surprisingly bad since he surprised the worst team in NFL history for two long catches.

Last 3 weeks are 29 targets resulting in a 48% catch rate and a paultry 5.4 YPT.

I'm surprised people are as high on him as they are. I like him a good bit too but his value has eclipsed his production by a lot. He's still a prospect but people are treating him like he already broke out.
Because you could've got the 1st WR off the board, who now has a significant chance to lead all rookie WR's in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.....for a mere 2nd round pick during the summer.

That's why people are excited.

There are going to be ups and downs just like every rookie has, but the talent is obvious and has big upside going forward.
Oh no doubt, he has shown enough potential that he was a bargain at his offseason prices, and I ended up with him in about 60% of my leagues because of it (he's actually my most owned player across all leagues).

But his value has far eclipsed "worth more than he was going for in rookie drafts". In the leagues I don't have him where I inquired the asking price is huge. People are beyond "excited", they are basically calling him a hit already, when really other than target share (which won't continue if the efficiency doesn't improve) all of the concerns people had with him are still there.

I honestly doubt most people even realized that he's been so bad since the Miami game. The general consensus seems to be that he's playing awesome when he's really not.
The overall offense has regressed. Brown isn't performing poorly. The concerns people had about his size have proven so far to be invalid. He is getting open. His speed and big play ability translated.

Catch rate is not a stat I would look towards to validate what's going on. That number doesn't mean he isn't getting open or he's dropping passes.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:29 am

Vcize wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:56 pm
His efficiency has been surprisingly bad since he surprised the worst team in NFL history for two long catches.

Last 3 weeks are 29 targets resulting in a 48% catch rate and a paultry 5.4 YPT.

I'm surprised people are as high on him as they are. I like him a good bit too but his value has eclipsed his production by a lot. He's still a prospect but people are treating him like he already broke out.
Obviously you really are not watching the game tape.

Just last week He was wide open in the end zone for an easy TD but the throw was in the dirt.

The Ravens have a young Qb and rookie WR.
You can throw out stats to bolster your case but remember this.

“There are Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics”

Making claims without understanding this will get push back for those that study the numbers behind Statistics.

Brown will be fine, Lamar will be fine but there is a learning curve.

Anyone that sells Brown cheap IMO is a fool so if you think he is really regressing watch every play before you buy into the gross stats.

Just sayin! 😁
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Vcize » Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:09 pm

Ice wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:29 am
Vcize wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:56 pm
His efficiency has been surprisingly bad since he surprised the worst team in NFL history for two long catches.

Last 3 weeks are 29 targets resulting in a 48% catch rate and a paultry 5.4 YPT.

I'm surprised people are as high on him as they are. I like him a good bit too but his value has eclipsed his production by a lot. He's still a prospect but people are treating him like he already broke out.
Obviously you really are not watching the game tape.

Just last week He was wide open in the end zone for an easy TD but the throw was in the dirt.

The Ravens have a young Qb and rookie WR.
You can throw out stats to bolster your case but remember this.

“There are Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics”

Making claims without understanding this will get push back for those that study the numbers behind Statistics.

Brown will be fine, Lamar will be fine but there is a learning curve.

Anyone that sells Brown cheap IMO is a fool so if you think he is really regressing watch every play before you buy into the gross stats.

Just sayin! 😁
So why does Jackson only throw inaccurately when targeting Brown and not anyone else on the team?

I'm not claiming Hollywood stinks or anything as I am heavily invested in him and haven't watched a ton of the Ravens. I'm more asking than telling. But stepping back and trying to be objective about it, "his efficiency stats are horrible solely because of the QB" is a dubious excuse when everyone else getting targets from the same QB has efficiency stays that are fine.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:56 pm

Vcize wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:09 pm
Ice wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:29 am
Vcize wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:56 pm
His efficiency has been surprisingly bad since he surprised the worst team in NFL history for two long catches.

Last 3 weeks are 29 targets resulting in a 48% catch rate and a paultry 5.4 YPT.

I'm surprised people are as high on him as they are. I like him a good bit too but his value has eclipsed his production by a lot. He's still a prospect but people are treating him like he already broke out.
Obviously you really are not watching the game tape.

Just last week He was wide open in the end zone for an easy TD but the throw was in the dirt.

The Ravens have a young Qb and rookie WR.
You can throw out stats to bolster your case but remember this.

“There are Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics”

Making claims without understanding this will get push back for those that study the numbers behind Statistics.

Brown will be fine, Lamar will be fine but there is a learning curve.

Anyone that sells Brown cheap IMO is a fool so if you think he is really regressing watch every play before you buy into the gross stats.

Just sayin! 😁
So why does Jackson only throw inaccurately when targeting Brown and not anyone else on the team?

I'm not claiming Hollywood stinks or anything as I am heavily invested in him and haven't watched a ton of the Ravens. I'm more asking than telling. But stepping back and trying to be objective about it, "his efficiency stats are horrible solely because of the QB" is a dubious excuse when everyone else getting targets from the same QB has efficiency stays that are fine.
Fair question so let's look at it. In the Food for Thought Department!

Brown has been targeted 34 times this year which is tied for 19th. Even that is a bit misleading given R. Woods is tied for 5th with only 4 more targets.

Having said that Brown only has 1 drop.

One thing to consider is basic chemistry. Brown and Lamar haven't had much of an opportunity to develop their timing given Brown missed all of OTA's and basically all of training camp and the pre season. Pretty much everyone knows chemistry takes serious time which is why QB's work at it all the time with WR's..

Complicating matters some is the fact there is Game Speed and then there is M. Brown Speed. That does matter. Other issues are QB pressure on throws. The latest Brown incomplete pass was over the middle in the end zone but there was pressure. This wasn't his only in-completion for a TD BTW.

The real take away here is this young duo is attempting to hook up at a WR1 rate. 3 less targets than Julio and OBJ as an example and 2 less than D. Hopkins. Looking at Hopkins, Brown has 0.5 points less YTD and Brown has 2.6 more points YTD than OBJ. Julio has no issues with his QB.

The real observations when dealing with Brown is he isn't the only WR with some connection issues. BTW, Hopkins has 2 drops and OBJ has zero drops.

While I am NOT putting Brown in their class at this point it does broaden the actual picture of the QB/WR relationship and that certainly isn't exclusive to Lamar and M. Brown.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:58 pm

Players have up and down games.
Honestly, I swear most of you play daily football and not dynasty football.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Vcize » Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:26 pm

Phaded wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:58 pm
Players have up and down games.
Honestly, I swear most of you play daily football and not dynasty football.
This seems misplaced, even backwards.

Hollywood basically has one great half of football against a horrible and unprepared defense and then 3.5 games of borderline league worst efficiency since. Yet he has vaulted in value and there are a dozen+ guys who were being drafted 2-5 full rounds ahead of him before that you can't trade for him straight up now.

I'm not here to try and tear the guy down, like I said he's my most owned player in FF because I was high on him prior to the season. I just find it interesting that so many people that were down on him coming into the league now value him so highly when he has mostly been pretty ineffective as an NFL player since those first couple passes against the tankathon.

He's shown some nice promise and has massive upside but it just seems like people have jumped 3 steps ahead here and are treating him like he already broke out and all those concerns they had about him before are quashed.
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