Patrick Mahomes: The Best QB in the NFL & for Dynasty

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
MEuRaH
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6777
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby MEuRaH » Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:52 am

I'm finally a part of the Patrick Mahomes club. I have him in a 6 PPPTD, -2 INT league. It's awesome. He's single-handedly dragged my team from worst to first.

I'm gonna enjoy this ride for a long time.
ULTIMATE RB GURUs
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!

REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134

UATahoe
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:03 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby UATahoe » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:14 am

I know in 1 Qb leagues most people say Qb is replaceable but man Mahomes really challenges that theory. He gives me such an advantage in every matchup. Im not sure what I would have to be offered to think about selling but it’s waaaayyyyy more than what you would normally expect for top tier Qb’s in a single Qb league. lol. The dude is unbelievable.
12 Team PPR League 1Qb 2Rb 3Wr 1Flex 1Te 1Def 1K

1 QB Mahomes, Dak Prescott
2 RB Mixon, Kamara, Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Justice Hill, Boston Scott, Ito Smith
3 WR Godwin, K. Allen, A. Cooper, S. Watkins, DJ Moore, Michael Gallup, Kelvin Harmon, Martavis Bryant, Core Coleman(IR) Preston Williams(IR)
1 TE Mark Andrews, H. Henry, H. Hurst, Ian Thomas, Goedert
D/ST Bears
K Zane Gonzalez

User avatar
jcc6fd
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:26 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby jcc6fd » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:19 am

UATahoe wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:14 am I know in 1 Qb leagues most people say Qb is replaceable but man Mahomes really challenges that theory. He gives me such an advantage in every matchup. Im not sure what I would have to be offered to think about selling but it’s waaaayyyyy more than what you would normally expect for top tier Qb’s in a single Qb league. lol. The dude is unbelievable.
You’re right to value him above consensus in a 1QB league. He’s legitimately a league winner. Even if his stats are down one year he has the skill set to maintain an elite floor and will maintain potential for those epic seasons for a while.

People who were talking about regression weren’t watching the games
10 Team Half PPR Scoring SF
QB: Mahomes, Hurts, Minshew
RB: Kamara, K. Hunt, Warren, Bigsby, D. Cook, Jamaal Williams, J. Wilson, McLaughlin, McKinnon, J. Kelley
WR: A.J. Brown, Diggs, K. Allen, C. Watson, Cooks, Pickens, W. Robinson
TE: Kelce, J. Smith, Musgrave

User avatar
Phaded
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 11964
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Phaded » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:50 am

I know we're only 3 weeks in, but it's hard to see a situation in which his fantasy production slows down. Almost all of their offensive production comes from the passing game, and even with teams knowing that is coming - they aren't able to stop it.

I was wrong.

bjd5211
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5615
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:50 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:53 am

I don't know if there's ever been a player who has been this far ahead of the rest of the players at his position in value. Maybe Gronk? But even at his peak he had Jimmy Graham putting up huge numbers too, and later Kelce got close and eventually surpassed him.

I would strongly consider Mahomes as a mid-late 1st round pick in a 1QB startup draft at this point, he's just that big of a difference maker and positional advantage.

All that being said, there has to be some amount of statistical regression coming at some point. He'll still be the best pick every year for leading fantasy in scoring and be the top QB, but he'll have "normal elite years" like 4,500/35 TDs rather than "historically elite years" like he put up last year and is on pace for this year. Or maybe I'm wrong and he's going to be the QB/football version of Wayne Gretzky and completely obliterate every statistical mark and lap the field.

Cameron Giles
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 14243
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:58 am

bjd5211 wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:53 am I don't know if there's ever been a player who has been this far ahead of the rest of the players at his position in value. Maybe Gronk? But even at his peak he had Jimmy Graham putting up huge numbers too, and later Kelce got close and eventually surpassed him.

I would strongly consider Mahomes as a mid-late 1st round pick in a 1QB startup draft at this point, he's just that big of a difference maker and positional advantage.

All that being said, there has to be some amount of statistical regression coming at some point. He'll still be the best pick every year for leading fantasy in scoring and be the top QB, but he'll have "normal elite years" like 4,500/35 TDs rather than "historically elite years" like he put up last year and is on pace for this year. Or maybe I'm wrong and he's going to be the QB/football version of Wayne Gretzky and completely obliterate every statistical mark and lap the field.
Aaron Rodgers had that distinction for a good 3-4 year stretch it seemed. Obviously the numbers aren't nearly as good as what Mahomes is doing, but NFL offenses have changed so much since then.

That said, I would not draft Mahomes in the 1st round of a 1QB Dynasty startup. I think it can be justified more in standard leagues than PPR, but the format of the league doesn't require you to reach that high on the position. You'd have to ask yourself if you can still find quality at WR/RB afterwards if you spend your first pick on a QB.

bjd5211
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5615
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:50 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:42 am

I would rather slightly over pay and get my guy for the life of the league than try and hold off for "a more appropriate" draft slot and end up missing out. My primary concern during startups is not immediate contention, I want to lay the foundation for team that will be strong for years to come. By taking Mahomes I can essentially forget about the QB position for the remainder of the draft and all future drafts and focus on the other positions. I will have plenty of opportunities and time to find quality RBs and WRs, but there is only 1 Patrick Mahomes.

bjd5211
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5615
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:50 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:48 am

As for Rodgers you're right he was the undisputed #1 QB for a few years, and there have been other guys who have been the near undisputed #1 at their position. I just don't think there's been any that have been this far ahead of the #2.

For example it's pretty widely accepted that Barkley is the current #1 overall RB, but the gap between him and Zeke/CMC/Kamara is a lot smaller than the gap between Mahomes and any other QB.

TheNuts
Captain
Captain
Posts: 761
Joined: Wed May 08, 2019 4:56 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby TheNuts » Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:06 pm

Multiple Scorgasms wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:03 am Here's a couple stats for you. WOW.

899 yards passing
8 TD

(IN THE FIRST HALF OF GAMES)

When KC goes conservative in the 2nd half to protect a lead* (see below)

296 yards
2 TD

* KC 1st half play mix
Week 1: 8 run/20 pass
Week 2: 8 run/26 pass
Week 3: 8 run/25 pass

KC 2nd half play mix
Week 1: 18 run/14 pass
Week 2: 14 run/18 pass
Week 3: 18 run/12 pass

Just imagine if the D was as bad as last year and they needed to keep passing in the 2nd half. His stats would be absolutely out of this world.
Andy Reid is such a hand job. Why let off the gas? Why allow teams a chance to come back at all? Matt Nagy is the same. They coach scared in the second half. It's like they get a lead, and then go to turtle offense while just praying they come out on the winning end.
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver

User avatar
Phaded
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 11964
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Phaded » Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:12 pm

^^With all fairness, it's a clock management and risk management thing - it is not about coaching scared. You also want to give your defense some breathing room, if you score too fast it can be detrimental to your defense and team overall (see the Chip Kelly era in Philly). You also don't want Mahomes to have his arm fall off by the time the games that matter come about, or open him up to more hits from the opposing defense when it is not necessary.

TheNuts
Captain
Captain
Posts: 761
Joined: Wed May 08, 2019 4:56 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby TheNuts » Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:27 pm

Phaded wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:12 pm ^^With all fairness, it's a clock management and risk management thing - it is not about coaching scared. You also want to give your defense some breathing room, if you score too fast it can be detrimental to your defense and team overall (see the Chip Kelly era in Philly). You also don't want Mahomes to have his arm fall off by the time the games that matter come about, or open him up to more hits from the opposing defense when it is not necessary.
I will just allowed Andy Reids playoff record speak for itself. He is a good game planner first half, and then he coaches scared the second half. It proves to fail him year after year when it matters. I also have never heard of a qb burning out his arm from passing too much. It's not like pitching.
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver

User avatar
Goirish374
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1396
Joined: Sun Aug 04, 2013 7:31 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Goirish374 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:36 pm

TheNuts wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:27 pm I also have never heard of a qb burning out his arm from passing too much. It's not like pitching.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-nfl-te ... 1503323944
Dynasty League Football Premium League Almanac:
2020 Champ: me again! (no, for reals!)
2019 Champ: me!
2018 Champ: Qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj
2017 Champ: Irishdoom
2016 Champ: DDT(wakelawyer)
2015 Champ: BigChiefBC

TheNuts
Captain
Captain
Posts: 761
Joined: Wed May 08, 2019 4:56 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby TheNuts » Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:46 pm

Goirish374 wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:36 pm
TheNuts wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:27 pm I also have never heard of a qb burning out his arm from passing too much. It's not like pitching.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-nfl-te ... 1503323944
Thanks for that. I didn't realize it's an issue. But Brady and Brees are proving that it's still nowhere near the issue it is in baseball.

Reid can use the excuse that he has never won a super bowl because he didn't want his qbs arm getting tired in the second half of games?
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver

User avatar
Goirish374
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1396
Joined: Sun Aug 04, 2013 7:31 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Goirish374 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:00 pm

TheNuts wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:46 pm Thanks for that. I didn't realize it's an issue. But Brady and Brees are proving that it's still nowhere near the issue it is in baseball.

Reid can use the excuse that he has never won a super bowl because he didn't want his qbs arm getting tired in the second half of games?
i'm just chiming in on that one side point. arm fatigue is a concern in football, too.

although...it's not like they got blown out of the playoffs last year. they lost in OT to the dynastic force of nature that is Belichick without getting an OT possession. its hard to blame the offensive play calling there. the 4th quarter was electrifying by any measure, involving all manner of football drama.
Dynasty League Football Premium League Almanac:
2020 Champ: me again! (no, for reals!)
2019 Champ: me!
2018 Champ: Qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj
2017 Champ: Irishdoom
2016 Champ: DDT(wakelawyer)
2015 Champ: BigChiefBC

User avatar
Phaded
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 11964
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Phaded » Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:39 pm

TheNuts wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:46 pm
Goirish374 wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:36 pm
TheNuts wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:27 pm I also have never heard of a qb burning out his arm from passing too much. It's not like pitching.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-nfl-te ... 1503323944
Thanks for that. I didn't realize it's an issue. But Brady and Brees are proving that it's still nowhere near the issue it is in baseball.

Reid can use the excuse that he has never won a super bowl because he didn't want his qbs arm getting tired in the second half of games?
Brees & Brady also have nowhere near the velocity on their throws that they once had, their high level of play comes more from football intelligence than it does arm strength.

One of the biggest qualities of Mahomes is his arm strength, can he learn the game like Brady & Brees, sure but it remains to be seen.

Mahomes arm talent is one of the things that make him so dangerous.


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Gold Fox, Google [Bot], Majestic-12 [Bot], NobleEagle, Semrush [Bot], Two Cents and 43 guests