Darrell Henderson

[ericanadian]

This community honestly makes me scratch my head sometimes. Whether you are for or against any player, making a definitive judgment after two weeks into the season about a rookie is how you fail as a dynasty owner.

You got get your “I told you so’s” in while the getting’s good...

[hoos89]

Really? I didnt really see him many places as even a top 5RB rookie prospect he was down in the holyfield range. 5 or 6 wrs ahead of him and of course kyler

That's where his ADP was according to mizelle.

This community honestly makes me scratch my head sometimes. Whether you are for or against any player, making a definitive judgment after two weeks into the season about a rookie is how you fail as a dynasty owner.

I'm not making a definitive judgment. Henderson certainly could end up having a great career, but (a) there were people in this thread saying he'd have a great 2019, which is going to be tough even if Gurley misses time given that he's had 1 touch and 2 snaps through two games, and (b) there are at least 15 rookies whose chances to be fantasy relevant over the next few years appear to be much higher than Henderson's right now. A mid-2nd is a far, far more reasonable value for him than his ADP in the 1.05-1.07 range this summer.

You're right that it is premature to dance on Henderson's grave, but it would similarly be ridiculous to maintain that he is one of the 10 most valuable rookies as of today.

[Phaded]

Fun fact: Gurley didn't even play until week 3 of his rookie career (and even then that was 6 touches), he started week 4.

Oh and before you say "but recovering from an injury", he was cleared during the preseason and was practicing but he needed to pick up the playbook - and that was as the 10th overall pick. Henderson does not have as much a dire situation and there is no need to force him in before he is ready.

People want immediate production out of these rookies too often. If that is your approach, you are better off selling the picks for players if you don't have the patience for it.

[hoos89]

He wasn't cleared until like 2 weeks before the start of the regular season. Had he not torn his ACL, he almost certainly would have started week 1. Completely different circumstance.

Also:

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/641 ... hree-weeks

[MrUbuto]

Yea I am by no means gloating as a guy laughing at people.taking Henderson first round


My opinion is exactly the same as it would have been if this was August

[Jigga94]

Yea I am by no means gloating as a guy laughing at people.taking Henderson first round


My opinion is exactly the same as it would have been if this was August

This

[Vcize]

This community honestly makes me scratch my head sometimes. Whether you are for or against any player, making a definitive judgment after two weeks into the season about a rookie is how you fail as a dynasty owner.

No one is making definitive judgments but it's equally as detrimental (if not moreso) to just sit on your hands for weeks in dynasty and not process any of the data you're getting. As I mentioned before, only 1 of the top 25 current dynasty RBs failed to log more than 1 touch through their first 2 active games like Henderson did. It's not a good start, and if you're not adjusting to that then you are equally failing as a dynasty owner.

There will always be the overreactors that go way too far and too often with every game. But there are equally the stubborn underreactors who just as detrimentally (if not moreso) refuse to change their mind until it is too late and get stuck in a constant cycle of sunk cost fallacies. These are the people last year who thought they were pulling one over on people by nabbing Ronald Jones from panicking owners for "only" a 1st round pick, or buying low on Leonard Fournette for "only" Christian McCaffrey who certainly would not keep up that pace the rest of the year.

[MrUbuto]

Yea and no..

Lwts take derrick henry for example (not a perfect comp I know)

But the date the last 2 years certainly was pointing bust.

Take out 3 monster games the last 2 years and he is beyond putrid. Like a 2.2ypc or something just horrendous

Sitting on your hands and trusting your original analysis was the best move

[Vcize]

Yea and no..

Lwts take derrick henry for example (not a perfect comp I know)

But the date the last 2 years certainly was pointing bust.

Take out 3 monster games the last 2 years and he is beyond putrid. Like a 2.2ypc or something just horrendous

Sitting on your hands and trusting your original analysis was the best move

There were times over Henry's career where you could trade him for more than he's worth right now. Times where you could trade him for a good bit less. He's kind of a wash.

You win some, you lose some. My point was simply that sitting and being patient is not always the best move, and probably more often is detrimental since dynasty rankings change SO drastically from one year to the next and we often have a pretty good insight of that change a few weeks into the season, people are just scared to react.

Tyreek is another guy like Henry that illustrates this both ways. Lots of people panic sold with the whole deal this offseason and got burned. But he is equally an example of the other side as well. Lots of people sold him after his first couple of good games as a rookie for a random 2nd thinking they were getting a big win by finding someone willing to overreact to a couple good games from a young player.

[Phaded]

There is such a thing as too much of a reaction. No matter where you had Henderson ranked, dramatically changing your rankings at this stage of the game is foolish.

Let's not act like Henderson came into a situation where he had a clear path to touches, he has come in and is behind one of the best running backs to enter the league in the last few years in Gurley.

The Rams spent significant capital on Henderson. They are 2-0 going on 3-0. There is no need to rush him in at this point.

As I mentioned earlier, I would bet the issue is pass protection and with no need to rush him in - they are just not going to.

I would guess he starts seeing significant touches by mid-season.

I don't see this same panic going on about a guy like Miles Sanders, though.

[hoos89]

There is such a thing as too much of a reaction. No matter where you had Henderson ranked, dramatically changing your rankings at this stage of the game is foolish.

Let's not act like Henderson came into a situation where he had a clear path to touches, he has come in and is behind one of the best running backs to enter the league in the last few years in Gurley.

The Rams spent significant capital on Henderson. They are 2-0 going on 3-0. There is no need to rush him in at this point.

As I mentioned earlier, I would bet the issue is pass protection and with no need to rush him in - they are just not going to.

I would guess he starts seeing significant touches by mid-season.

I don't see this same panic going on about a guy like Miles Sanders, though.

It seemed to me that a lot of the people who were ranking him in the mid-first were assuming that he was going to get a decent chunk of touches out of the gate. They thought he was going to have Malcolm Brown's role. If that was part of someone's calculus, that person should probably adjust Henderson's value accordingly.

Miles Sanders has 10 times as many touches and was only taken a few slots ahead of Henderson in a lot of drafts. Not a great comparison.

[Phaded]

See - I had him ranked as a mid 1st guy in the predraft process. I was apparently one of the few who didn't love the landing spot as so much of it depended on Gurley.

I don't own any shares, but if owners are panic selling I would be buying.

In regards to Sanders, my point was that he has flat out looked bad but I don't see anyone freaking out about him after two weeks.

A guy who has the lead role and has looked bad in it is more worrisome than a guy stuck behind one of the best backs in the league, in my opinion. However again, we are two weeks in. You can not definitively judge but I don't see people "adjusting" on Sanders.

[bjd5211]

See - I had him ranked as a mid 1st guy in the predraft process. I was apparently one of the few who didn't love the landing spot as so much of it depended on Gurley.

I don't own any shares, but if owners are panic selling I would be buying.

In regards to Sanders, my point was that he has flat out looked bad but I don't see anyone freaking out about him after two weeks.

A guy who has the lead role and has looked bad in it is more worrisome than a guy stuck behind one of the best backs in the league, in my opinion. However again, we are two weeks in. You can not definitively judge but I don't see people "adjusting" on Sanders.

Just happened to stumble across this on Reddit:

https://mobile.twitter.com/GrahamBarfie ... 79008?s=20

"Miles Sanders has seen at least one extra defender in the box on 57.1% of his carries so far, tied with Kerryon Johnson for the highest rate in the league. Some context behind Sanders (2.5 YPC) and Johnson's (3.2 YPC) middling efficiency to start the season."

Kind of surprising, and probably plays a role in Sanders' performance to this point. I do think Sanders and Montgomery have both looked pretty good on some plays, they are just getting inconsistent workloads at the moment.

[Phaded]

Who is this guy and where is he getting these stats? They are dramatically different from these 8+ in the box stats: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing
(14% for Sanders, 35% for Kerryon)

[bjd5211]

He's a fantasy football writer for NFL.com