The Todd Gurley Thread - Currently FA

[Patsfan86]

Todd Gurley got a cat, even more of a buy low window? People hate cats and if he is wearing a knee brace it may be a scratch pad. Cat pee is also smelly and he may get sick from the cat litter. Awful for his value. SELL NOW!!!!

[Huh]

Todd Gurley got a cat, even more of a buy low window? People hate cats and if he is wearing a knee brace it may be a scratch pad. Cat pee is also smelly and he may get sick from the cat litter. Awful for his value. SELL NOW!!!!

Anybody that gets a cat is nuts. They live for twenty years and the whole time they are waiting for you to die so they can eat you. They are the patient scavengers.

[Mike11]

Well now I'm upset because I want my players to get wined and dined prior to the start of the season. Why are you depriving this man of his pineapple juice!

[ArrylT]

I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.

[AZK]

I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.

With most players in dynasty we are all right and wrong about players many different times during their careers.

[Mike11]

I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.

You're probably right. No one really has a crystal ball on this so it's often gut instinct and whatever data we scrape together. In terms of being right the decisions I see are:

1. He's great, everything was over dramatized
2. He's not transcendent but still good, the built in buffer of a 10-30% reduced workload was accurate and with proper management he still has a long career
3. He's good but wears down midseason and it's becoming likely Gurley has a much shorter career than anyone hopes for

then the inverse of all of this basically - the wheels come off way quicker, he is a shell of his former self, etc.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.

I'm curious to hear your process and your decision. And anyone elses that cares tonchime in. Keep the focus on what your individual personal process has been.

Mine was that fear clouds judgement. It's very hard to make a rational decision because the emotion is so powerful it clouds the process.

I decided to buy the dip using a market illustration. Everyone fears recession when the market dips. And yes, sometimes it happens, but fear drives the stock market as often as logic.

My process was to try and buy the fear, and yes, I have the strong feelings of doom that are associated with Gurley. But I am trying to buy the value or dip.

I will sell though if the market heats back up on him.

[bjd5211]

Almost none of the Rams starters will be making the flight to Hawaii, I guess the whole team is hurt.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/273 ... ame-hawaii

"Defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Marcus Peters are the only starters who are expected to make the trip, though they will not play in the game on Saturday at Aloha Stadium." -quote from above article.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Todd Gurley is so messed up, he can't even fly on an airplane!

https://twitter.com/TurfShowTimes/statu ... 6912390144

But yeah, he's still gonna get almost all his touches. Just a one or two less per week, cuz that's ALL that he needs to stay healthy.

i guess there must be something wrong with all the rams starters since they're not going to hawaii either.

[PR0v3]

I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.

Gurley will be good on a per touch basis, but will get far less usage than owners want. Come real playoff time, he will be unleashed. 8-15 touches per game in the regular season and possibly less. Any more than that is just not necessary for them to win regular season games. Basically, expect the inverse of what happened last year.

I’ve got him pegged for 160-180 regular season touches so that they can give him 100+ more in the playoffs.

[FantasyFreak]

I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.

Gurley will be good on a per touch basis, but will get far less usage than owners want. Come real playoff time, he will be unleashed. 8-15 touches per game in the regular season and possibly less. Any more than that is just not necessary for them to win regular season games. Basically, expect the inverse of what happened last year.

I’ve got him pegged for 160-180 regular season touches so that they can give him 100+ more in the playoffs.

That's too low IMO. I'd say hell get that many carries.

[ArrylT]

I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.

With most players in dynasty we are all right and wrong about players many different times during their careers.

Absolutely. I am definitely not saying we won't be. And sometimes it is better (for our fantasy teams) to be lucky/right for the wrong reasons than right for the right reasons.

[ArrylT]

I think it will be interesting to see which segment of the dynasty community is going to be right about Todd Gurley, and whether they got to that decision using good or bad processes. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be right in the end about Gurley, but got their decision by using the wrong process (or by being a follower), and will then use this to correlate to other players which will then hurt them as dynasty owners.

I'm curious to hear your process and your decision. And anyone elses that cares tonchime in. Keep the focus on what your individual personal process has been.

Mine was that fear clouds judgement. It's very hard to make a rational decision because the emotion is so powerful it clouds the process.

I decided to buy the dip using a market illustration. Everyone fears recession when the market dips. And yes, sometimes it happens, but fear drives the stock market as often as logic.

My process was to try and buy the fear, and yes, I have the strong feelings of doom that are associated with Gurley. But I am trying to buy the value or dip.

I will sell though if the market heats back up on him.

Actually I am referring more to the process of deductive & inductive reasoning.

Example of proper deductive reasoning:

All men are mortal. (First premise)
Socrates is a man. (Second premise)
Therefore, Socrates is mortal. (Conclusion)

Example of improper deductive reasoning:

Everyone who eats carrots is a quarterback.
John eats carrots.
Therefore, John is a quarterback.

Example of strong inductive reasoning:

All biological life forms that we know of depend on liquid water to exist.
Therefore, if we discover a new biological life form it will probably depend on liquid water to exist.

Example of weak inductive reasoning:

All of the swans we have seen are white.
Therefore, we know that all swans are white.

---

Gurley did not play much/well in the Super Bowl
The Rams drafted Darrell Henderson
Therefore Gurley will bust & Henderson will breakout.

That is weak inductive reasoning

Basically the premises of an inductive logical argument should indicate some degree of likelyhood (aka inductive probability) for the conclusion but do not guarantee it; that is, they suggest an outcome but do not guarantee it.

I am just saying that a lot of people may end up taking the results of this season as proof that they were right to predict X because Y happened, when Y, Z A & B had little to do with X result. They then take this and use it to predict other outcomes that simply do not happen & cost them plenty. We see this all the time with examples like Davante Adams, Tyler Boyd, Deandre Hopkins (remember the dip in value after his 2016 season) and so forth.

That is what I am referring to. Just that many people may have already determined an outcome for Gurley, and if that outcome plays out as expected ...

Regardless I think what you're doing makes sense. And many times you have to take risks to reap rewards. The fact that you're willing to take that risk, despite the concern it may backfire, is actually a good thing, and it sounds as though you're being logical about it.

[M-Dub]

Example of improper deductive reasoning:

Everyone who eats carrots is a quarterback.
John eats carrots.
Therefore, John is a quarterback.

Not to sidetrack the thread, but that seems like perfectly sound deductive reasoning to me.

If it was something like this, then I could see the problem:

All quarterbacks eat carrots.
John eats carrots.
Therefore, John is a quarterback.

But as it’s written above, it would be entirely rational to assume John is a quarterback.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I'm in an episode of Black Mirror and all you guys are rabbits aren't you