Postby FantasyDumDum » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:29 pm
Valhalla wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:12 pm
FantasyDumDum wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:42 pm
...
But go ahead and troll the guy who has been right all along and has given everyone here BY FAR the best and most useful dynasty advice of anyone here this entire off season.
Honestly, who else helped you turn a WW add into 2x1sts value this off season? Or anything even close to that?
Sorry for trolling you. That comment kind of was. Yet...you've called me a troll multiple other times when I was simply offering a perspective. Not everyone who disagrees with you is trolling you.
Also...I don't think there are very many people out there who are trading two firsts for this guy. I know it's not happening anywhere in any of my leagues. He is being moved for about half that.
I own Damien. I don't hate him. I'm not against your view. I have only been trying to convey that it's NOT his past FPPT that makes him valuable...and that it's not accurate to extrapolate FPPT on a very high TD rate and high reception rate. He's not likely to continue either of those rates if featured, so I can't get behind extrapolating his output based on his past FPPT rate.
I consider trolling attempting to drag the thread off topic, posting ad hominems without facts, arguing in bad faith, etc. Disagreement has nothing to do with trolling. Have you not noticed that since I started posting facts illuminating the lies and bad analysis by a mod here, we have had several posters come in here to attack me personally because they cannot with facts because the facts do not fit with their made up feel good narratives? Those are the trolls. The mods encourage them both implicitly by not censoring their attempts to ruin threads here and explicitly because they are “friends” or “have been here a long time.”
Back on topic:
Damien is not likely to keep up his insane rate in KC of 1.35 FPPt. But FPPT is far and away the best fantasy stat for RBs(nothing else even comes close), and it is relatively sticky. Aka you can predict pretty well where certain “types” of RBs will be in the range. Pass catching, TD scoring RBs end up on top of this list. Being in KC offense will also help him stay in that elite range, even if it is well below his past rate. And it isn’t an exact science or claimed to be anyways, but it clearly shows, along with Damien’s opportunity, durability, and talent, that his likely and possible ranges of outcomes are very high. You can get more granular and specific after that, but even that vague analysis and statement is enough to solidify a pretty good idea of his worth.
The fact that he doesn’t have much injury history to speak of, and there seems to only be a push from an undersized, albeit electric, Rookie UDFA for his role in a top 5 offense all time, just further cements his value.
And as to value, we’ve already discussed in the other Damien Williams thread that his value is pretty much 2x1sts already and offers have come in for alllllmost as much as of now, or close enough that I have recommended selling if you get a good deal even close to that. I didn’t sell for Aaron Jones + 2020 2nd because Damien won me a bunch of leagues last year and I want to ride him, no worries. I probably would sell for AJ + 2020 1st though, so you can see where I value him based on me being very likely the most informed and longest owning, most invested Damien Williams owner in all of dynasty football.
10 team, .5ppr, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex
QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Andrews
Taxi Squad:
Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4