Is Jameis Winston a Starting QB

[Gametime675]

I didn't watch a ton of TB games but from what I saw he still looks bad under pressure and just kind of chucks the ball up for grabs way more often than he should. Luckily, he has Mike Evans to save his butt (like KB in college). He's not as bad as I expected, and there are good points to his game, but I don't ever see him being elite or being able to carry a team - agree that he'll settle into that middle QB region where he's never really a consistent top QB but maybe has a couple nice seasons along with some duds.

[heyfeefellskee]

To be fair.. he did specify rookie Luck.

Who's stats are who's for rookie season?
312 comp, 535 pass att, 58.3% completion, 4,042 passing yards, 7.56 avg yards, 22 TD, 15 INT, 54 rush att, 213 rushing yards, 6 total fumbles
339 comp, 627 pass att, 54.1% completion, 4,374 passing yards, 6.98 avg yards, 23 TD, 18 INT, 62 rush att, 255 rushing yards, 10 total fumbles

I'm not saying necessarily how one should be valued over the other, but it's also not fair to compare 4 years of luck to 1 year of Winston. If you're asking for similar numbers, I'd say they look pretty close.

*Full disclosure, there was one place they were farther apart, but that was team wins, which is a little more dependent on other factors? Luck brought the Colts to the playoffs with 11-5 record his rookie year, Winston only got TB to a 6-10 record.

There was a thread a while back with people sayin there was no way winston would come close to luck in terms of production.

If you look at "plus" numbers (passing yards, tds, rushing yards), Luck has more. If you look at "performance" numbers (completion %, yards per throw, fumbles), Winston is better. Which is more important in overall player evaluation?

[SadBucsfan]

To be fair.. he did specify rookie Luck.

Who's stats are who's for rookie season?
312 comp, 535 pass att, 58.3% completion, 4,042 passing yards, 7.56 avg yards, 22 TD, 15 INT, 54 rush att, 213 rushing yards, 6 total fumbles
339 comp, 627 pass att, 54.1% completion, 4,374 passing yards, 6.98 avg yards, 23 TD, 18 INT, 62 rush att, 255 rushing yards, 10 total fumbles

I'm not saying necessarily how one should be valued over the other, but it's also not fair to compare 4 years of luck to 1 year of Winston. If you're asking for similar numbers, I'd say they look pretty close.

*Full disclosure, there was one place they were farther apart, but that was team wins, which is a little more dependent on other factors? Luck brought the Colts to the playoffs with 11-5 record his rookie year, Winston only got TB to a 6-10 record.

There was a thread a while back with people sayin there was no way winston would come close to luck in terms of production.

If you look at "plus" numbers (passing yards, tds, rushing yards), Luck has more. If you look at "performance" numbers (completion %, yards per throw, fumbles), Winston is better. Which is more important in overall player evaluation?

I think you have to look at both. Obviously in terms of fantasy, the raw numbers are more important because that's where points come from. However, in terms of NFL value, the advanced statistics hold a lot more value, and if a player's advanced statistics are good, then there is a decent chance that the raw numbers will improve with increased usage. If we extrapolate Winston's numbers based on what he did this year to match the same pass attempts as Luck his rookie year, here would be his stats:

366 comp, 627 pass att, 58.3% completion, 4737 passing yards, 7.56 avg yards, 26 TD, 18 INT

Those numbers are better than Luck's numbers as a rookie. Granted, Winston had a lot more help in the running game this year than Luck did his rookie year.

[Monkey]

There was a thread a while back with people sayin there was no way winston would come close to luck in terms of production.

If you look at "plus" numbers (passing yards, tds, rushing yards), Luck has more. If you look at "performance" numbers (completion %, yards per throw, fumbles), Winston is better. Which is more important in overall player evaluation?

Agreed, and from a fantasy perspective (which is really the only one we should care about unless it ends in a player being benched like Cutler last year) you want the passing yards and touchdowns. This won't stop people from bashing a player based on their efficiency though. While I'm certainly not saying Luck is a bad QB, a large part of what makes him a great fantasy asset is the volume of work he gets.

I was simply responding to the comment that they can't be valued similarly until Winston puts up similar numbers, and I was just thinking they were pretty close.

Do I think Winston will be the next Luck? Eh, that's probably a bold assumption, and really depends on whether he can get the volume passing wise.
Do I think most people wish they would've bought Luck before his 4,700 yard 40 TD year? Yep.

[pmart33]

What should the current market price to acquire Jameis Winson be in a 1 QB?

He carries his share or risk, given the fact that he may be one bad season away from irrelevance in the dynasty landscape. But I think Bruce Arians will straighten him out and he will continue to be a productive fantasy asset.

[FantasyFreak]

Mid to late 2nd. IDK, in 1 QB league, he's not worth very much.

[sloth8u]

Admittedly i was high on winston comming out and had him top 4 in rookie drafts. As we've seen things play out he has found himself with a tremendous opportunity with the arians hiring and the talent around him. Ive been buying everywhere possible with the thought that he has the potential to take a big step this yr.

Any others have a strong feeling either way on how this relationship is likely to play out?

[FastEddie]

Million Dollar Question.

If he can keep his TO’s down, I think he’s in line for a Top 8 season with a high floor and high ceiling, game in, game out.

I’m targeting him.

[Sriracha]

Between his off the field problems, overall inefficiency and accuracy issues -- especially deep (ranked 34th in 2018, 11th in 2017, and 28th in 2016 in deep ball accuracy according to deep ball projects) I don't see him succeeding short of Arians being a QB magician.

I could see him producing fantasy points in Arians scheme this offseason with one of the best supporting casts in football, but I think it's likely they move on from him after this year. That could all change if he gives us more of his highs and less of his lows this season; as it's hard to argue that when he's on he's one of the top QBs in the league.

[AussieMate]

This is his make or break year obviously. I'd say for this year only he is a great buy and could easily finish as a top 5 QB, I wouldn't take bets on his long term future though, If he does have the year I think he will, then I'll be selling him on a high note before next year.

It would also depend how your league scores ints, if its forgiving then get him now, if its harsh I'd avoid (obviously)

[ericanadian]

Good luck with white Jay Cutler...

[Smoking Guns]

Good luck with white Jay Cutler...

This is making my head spin

[sloth8u]

Good luck with white Jay Cutler...

This is making my head spin

The hope is that winston "gives a damn". I can see the comparison....but maybe he's a "winner" and can take his profession seriously.

There are obvious concerns.

[Phaded]

I have him in all three of my leagues.
That should tell you how I feel.

People tend to forget he is still only 25 despite entering year 5.

[Shankopotamus]

I'm just hoping he does well enough to get another contract with TB. My Qb situation will be dire if he gets shipped off to Miami or something.