Ultimate Sleeper: Who is this year's Tyler Boyd?

[Ice]

M. Lee

I have also been buying Enunwa and Samuel.

Really like all three’s situation

[Smoking Guns]

Dante Pettis
Ian Thomas
Curtis Samuel

[Blueboy]

Dante Pettis
Ian Thomas
Curtis Samuel

Pettis actually has an ADP in the mid-80s according to MFL, around guys like Allen Robinson and Miles Sanders.

[Sriracha]

I'll go with a simpler comparison to Boyd.

Day 1 or day 2 pick, starting on an NFL football team and is basically free.

Corey. Coleman.
Zay. Jones.
John. Ross.
Davante. Parker.
Josh. Doctson.
Paul. Richarson.
Kevin. White.

[Vendetta]

I've got a gut feeling about Donte Moncrief this year.

[Smoking Guns]

Dante Pettis
Ian Thomas
Curtis Samuel

Pettis actually has an ADP in the mid-80s according to MFL, around guys like Allen Robinson and Miles Sanders.

My bad I digress

[Friction]

Duke Williams- Buffalo
Former devy darling, led CFL in receiving last year. Oh, you said someone with an ADP.

[Prison_Mike]

Depending on how similar you want the guy to be to Tyler Boyd I suppose. I'll go as literal as possible.

That means I shall restrict myself to only WRs drafted in 2017, since we're looking for WRs who breakout in Year III.

So that culls all 2018 & 2019 WRs (as well as 2016 or earlier).

Next Boyd was a decently high draft NFL (day 2) & Rookie dynasty pick (late 1st early 2nd depending on the league & time of rookie draft) in 2016 with a group of backers, that had a good rookie year followed by a disappointing (to say the least) sophomore season.

So that culls all WRs drafted Day III or UDFA.

Like the OP mentioned, his ADP was 190 or worse in the off-season prior to his 2018 breakout.

So that culls the 2017 Wrs who already broke out (like Kupp, JJSS & Golladay) or have flashed enough to have enough owners buoy their ADP (like Mike Williams, Corey Davis & Godwin).

That leaves us with 8 guys.

John Ross
Zay Jones
Curtis Samuel
Taywan Taylor
ArDarius Stewart
Carlos Henderson
Chad Williams
Amara Darboh

Tyler Boyd actually reached around 124-126 points in your typical PPR league or approximately 8 ppg, in his rookie year.

That culls Darboh, Chad Williams, Carlos Henderson, A. Stewart, T. Taylor & John Ross.

Leaving only Zay Jones & Curtis Samuel.

However the ADP requirement disqualifies Samuel, since his ADP is around 100 and has actually been on the rise.

Zay Jones could get disqualified, because his ADP doesnt reach requirements, however his ADP is currently declining (from a high of 120 earlier in off-season) and his situation - like Boyds in 2018 - looks suboptimal at first glance - just for different reasons.

So if you are looking for the WR most likely to follow the Tyler Boyd path to rebounding relevance - Zay Jones is likely your best bet. While his rookie ADP was lower than Boyds, that can be explained partially by the strong depth of the 2017 class. He does check all the boxes otherwise

Strong collegiate resume
3rd year WR
Day II WR
Same team (meaning he is on the team that drafted him)
undervalued ADP
Suboptimal situation at first glance that could break his way.

However I would warn that Zay Jones is not Tyler Boyd - different player with different talents & different situation - so it would be risky to assume the same outcome - so unless you're getting in on the ground floor (ie paying prices similar to his ADP) it is not a recommended buy (imho).

Love the breakdown!
I like Zay, but I agree that I probably wouldn't go out of my way to acquire him. I just don't see a significant pay off and having to rely on Josh Allen would scare the shite out of me

[mild]

Just to tack on to the Zay Jones love - he will be in the final year of his rookie deal in 2020. If he flashes a little bit this year then obviously the bandwagon will start - but I do wonder if we may have a slight repeat of the Robert Woods situation here, where being stranded in Buffalo and all that entails (situation wise, and mentally) might mean that a change of scenery would do him a world of good.

He's certainly a big unknown in a lot of ways, and is only coming into his 3rd season now. For a guy that can be had for free in some leagues (I grabbed him off the waiver wire mid-season last year) I think he's a great free dice roll.

[Cameron Giles]

Yeah, I think it's Curtis Samuel as well. He's arguably the most underrated route runner in the league. His roadblocks right now are health and how Cam Newton's shoulder looks.

[Phaded]

Was this post by chance inspired by this?

[Prison_Mike]

Was this post by chance inspired by this?

Haha nope. I'd never seen that article, thanks for sharing!

It was actually inspired by a tweet in the Dynasty Twitter community. But I tend to lean toward the opinions of those in this forum so figured I’d bring it here to get some insight. I believe Austin Dewitt (DLF writer) had identified Jordan Lasley as his Boyd-type stash for 2019

[ninotoreS]

After '17, a lot of people -- myself included -- had given up on Boyd becoming a good pro player. He proved us wrong. So by that comparative context, and considered together with current ADP, I suggest Donte Moncrief and Keelan Cole.

[crip7300]

Based on talent and opportunity here are some of my favorite sleepers, my favorite at each position**
Parker
Albert Wilson
Moncrief
Conley
Deon Cain
Trey Quinn**
Jaylen Samuels
Donta Foreman**
Chase Edmonds
Herndon**
Jonnu Smith
Gerald Everett

[FantasyFreak]

Seems like it should be a year 3 guy. Looking at this class, there are a ton of relevant players. Unfortunately, or fortunately, so many are past that point. Strong class.

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/stor ... s-analysis