Ultimate Sleeper: Who is this year's Tyler Boyd?

[Prison_Mike]

Last year, Tyler Boyd's ADP fluctuated between 198-232 in the months leading up to the season (March - August)
His ADP currently sits around 55

Which means he was an absolute steal to those who drafted him and has seen an insane spike in value

Who is the player (any position) that no one is talking about right now?
Who is the player that is going in the 200 range of start-up drafts that you could see making their way into the top 75 by this time next year?

*(Not including rookies btw)

[kamihamster]

Josh Gordon

[TheNuts]

One person who it could be is Quincy Enunwa. He has been forgotten. Dsrnold in his second year. If Enunwa can stay healthy, he could be a solid ppr option.

[Prison_Mike]

One person who it could be is Quincy Enunwa. He has been forgotten. Dsrnold in his second year. If Enunwa can stay healthy, he could be a solid ppr option.

I like that pick, I had some Enunwa shares but sent him as a throw in to get a few deals done.
Could still be acquired very cheap via trade

[Prison_Mike]

Josh Gordon

Interesting - I like it
it's rare that you find his talent level in round 20+

[blemly]

I'll post a few that I think could significantly outperform their current ADP (based on FantasyPros rankings).

Marquise Goodwin: No. 152/WR60. If you go back to last year, Goodwin was receiving a fair amount of hype based on his apparent connection with Garoppolo in the 6 games they played together at the end of the 2017 season. FWIW, I think those figures were quite positive (49 targets for a 33/462/1 line over 6 games). 2018 was largely a wash due to the Garoppolo and Goodwin's injuries, but I think there is still a connection there. Moreover, Goodwin is still just 28-years-old and figures to remain the teams best deep threat.

Tre-Quan Smith: No. 179/WR70 and/or Kieth Kirkwood: No. 318/WR109: The WR2 in NO is still up for grabs, but it doesn't seem like anyone is talking about who it will be. With the recent news that Meredith and Matthews are not locks to make the roster this season, and with Ginn at 34-years-old coming off an injury-riddled season, I think that the eventual WR2 is one of these guys. I'd bet on Smith, who both showed out (3/111/2 in week 5 and 10/157/1 in week 10) and disappeared (3/27 on 7 targets from weeks 11-14). Still, Smith was a rookie last year with decent draft capital and above average metrics across the board. Kirkwood is a bit of a deep cut, but even in a WR3 role in NO I think he could be useful and he is free practically everywhere.

David Moore: No. 189/WR72: Another guy who figures to slide into the WR2 role for his team, yet has not been talked about too much this offseason (although some analysts are already all over him). Sure, he will compete with DK Metcalf for WR2 targets and Seattle isn't talked about as a passing team at the moment, but they have a T5 QB and Moore still put up 26/445/5 last season despite competing for targets behind Baldwin and Lockett. I don't see him getting Boyd numbers, but he could be a useful flex this season.

Chris Conley: No. 282/WR99: Impressive metrics, less than impressive box scores. We are in dart throw range (if we weren't already), but Conley is now out from underneath the KCC WR core and only needs to beat out Keelan Cole and Marquise Lee for WR2 targets behind Dede Westbrook in what figures to be a much-improved Jaguars offense from last year's Bortlesean Disaster. One thing that I do take note of is Conley's long-time connection with Nick Foles, who was reportedly ecstatic to play with his friend this season. At WR99, that's something positive I can get behind to take a flier on a guy who is basically free.

[Blueboy]

MFL currently has guys like Marquise Brown and Deebo Samuel in the 200-range, which I'm assuming is just because they aren't included in all drafts.

The breakout candidates that stand out strongest to me across the three skill positions (and aren't listed in the above post) in this range are
WR: Zay Jones, Albert Wilson, Quincy Enunwa
RB: Kalen Ballage, TJ Yeldon, Duke Johnson
TE: Chris Herndon, Mark Andews, Tyler Eifert

If Eifert doesn't count because he's already broken out, pencil in Ian Thomas. If any of those guys cost a 4th or less, as indicated by their startup price, I'm buying in a heartbeat.

[TheNuts]

Tyrell Williams could be if anything happened to Brown injury wise.

[Prison_Mike]

MFL currently has guys like Marquise Brown and Deebo Samuel in the 200-range, which I'm assuming is just because they aren't included in all drafts.

The breakout candidates that stand out strongest to me across the three skill positions (and aren't listed in the above post) in this range are
WR: Zay Jones, Albert Wilson, Quincy Enunwa
RB: Kalen Ballage, TJ Yeldon, Duke Johnson
TE: Chris Herndon, Mark Andews, Tyler Eifert

If Eifert doesn't count because he's already broken out, pencil in Ian Thomas. If any of those guys cost a 4th or less, as indicated by their startup price, I'm buying in a heartbeat.

Eifert absolutely counts - Not looking at breakout, just current ADP; Injury was a big reason Boyd was so cheap last year right? or am I misremembering? I believe he played 10 games in 2017. So Eifert is a great pick

I think ADP is climbing as hype is building around Herndon & even Andrews

But I like the Jones/Wilson/Yeldon/Duke picks - all of which will need to beat out their mediocre competition or have a situational change
(Maybe Duke gets a bump with Hunt getting into trouble? or does that make them more likely to keep Duke, worsening his situation?)

[Prison_Mike]

I'll post a few that I think could significantly outperform their current ADP (based on FantasyPros rankings).

Marquise Goodwin: No. 152/WR60. If you go back to last year, Goodwin was receiving a fair amount of hype based on his apparent connection with Garoppolo in the 6 games they played together at the end of the 2017 season. FWIW, I think those figures were quite positive (49 targets for a 33/462/1 line over 6 games). 2018 was largely a wash due to the Garoppolo and Goodwin's injuries, but I think there is still a connection there. Moreover, Goodwin is still just 28-years-old and figures to remain the teams best deep threat.

Tre-Quan Smith: No. 179/WR70 and/or Kieth Kirkwood: No. 318/WR109: The WR2 in NO is still up for grabs, but it doesn't seem like anyone is talking about who it will be. With the recent news that Meredith and Matthews are not locks to make the roster this season, and with Ginn at 34-years-old coming off an injury-riddled season, I think that the eventual WR2 is one of these guys. I'd bet on Smith, who both showed out (3/111/2 in week 5 and 10/157/1 in week 10) and disappeared (3/27 on 7 targets from weeks 11-14). Still, Smith was a rookie last year with decent draft capital and above average metrics across the board. Kirkwood is a bit of a deep cut, but even in a WR3 role in NO I think he could be useful and he is free practically everywhere.

David Moore: No. 189/WR72: Another guy who figures to slide into the WR2 role for his team, yet has not been talked about too much this offseason (although some analysts are already all over him). Sure, he will compete with DK Metcalf for WR2 targets and Seattle isn't talked about as a passing team at the moment, but they have a T5 QB and Moore still put up 26/445/5 last season despite competing for targets behind Baldwin and Lockett. I don't see him getting Boyd numbers, but he could be a useful flex this season.

Chris Conley: No. 282/WR99: Impressive metrics, less than impressive box scores. We are in dart throw range (if we weren't already), but Conley is now out from underneath the KCC WR core and only needs to beat out Keelan Cole and Marquise Lee for WR2 targets behind Dede Westbrook in what figures to be a much-improved Jaguars offense from last year's Bortlesean Disaster. One thing that I do take note of is Conley's long-time connection with Nick Foles, who was reportedly ecstatic to play with his friend this season. At WR99, that's something positive I can get behind to take a flier on a guy who is basically free.

^Good stuff here

Appreciate the time you put into this post.

Moore worries me a bit just because of their offense, but as you pointed out, they've got a top 5 QB that helps that situation

TreQuan has a prime opportunity considering the lack of offseason additions to the WR room (Small Jordan Humphrey & Matthews was it if I remember correctly?

I've heard good things about Conley this offseason - I know it's just camp rumblings but it's better than silence. I've scooped up shares in all but 1 league

[Phaded]

Curtis Samuel.

[blemly]

I'll post a few that I think could significantly outperform their current ADP (based on FantasyPros rankings).

Marquise Goodwin: No. 152/WR60. If you go back to last year, Goodwin was receiving a fair amount of hype based on his apparent connection with Garoppolo in the 6 games they played together at the end of the 2017 season. FWIW, I think those figures were quite positive (49 targets for a 33/462/1 line over 6 games). 2018 was largely a wash due to the Garoppolo and Goodwin's injuries, but I think there is still a connection there. Moreover, Goodwin is still just 28-years-old and figures to remain the teams best deep threat.

Tre-Quan Smith: No. 179/WR70 and/or Kieth Kirkwood: No. 318/WR109: The WR2 in NO is still up for grabs, but it doesn't seem like anyone is talking about who it will be. With the recent news that Meredith and Matthews are not locks to make the roster this season, and with Ginn at 34-years-old coming off an injury-riddled season, I think that the eventual WR2 is one of these guys. I'd bet on Smith, who both showed out (3/111/2 in week 5 and 10/157/1 in week 10) and disappeared (3/27 on 7 targets from weeks 11-14). Still, Smith was a rookie last year with decent draft capital and above average metrics across the board. Kirkwood is a bit of a deep cut, but even in a WR3 role in NO I think he could be useful and he is free practically everywhere.

David Moore: No. 189/WR72: Another guy who figures to slide into the WR2 role for his team, yet has not been talked about too much this offseason (although some analysts are already all over him). Sure, he will compete with DK Metcalf for WR2 targets and Seattle isn't talked about as a passing team at the moment, but they have a T5 QB and Moore still put up 26/445/5 last season despite competing for targets behind Baldwin and Lockett. I don't see him getting Boyd numbers, but he could be a useful flex this season.

Chris Conley: No. 282/WR99: Impressive metrics, less than impressive box scores. We are in dart throw range (if we weren't already), but Conley is now out from underneath the KCC WR core and only needs to beat out Keelan Cole and Marquise Lee for WR2 targets behind Dede Westbrook in what figures to be a much-improved Jaguars offense from last year's Bortlesean Disaster. One thing that I do take note of is Conley's long-time connection with Nick Foles, who was reportedly ecstatic to play with his friend this season. At WR99, that's something positive I can get behind to take a flier on a guy who is basically free.

^Good stuff here

Appreciate the time you put into this post.

Moore worries me a bit just because of their offense, but as you pointed out, they've got a top 5 QB that helps that situation

TreQuan has a prime opportunity considering the lack of offseason additions to the WR room (Small Jordan Humphrey & Matthews was it if I remember correctly?

I've heard good things about Conley this offseason - I know it's just camp rumblings but it's better than silence. I've scooped up shares in all but 1 league

I appreciate that you appreciate it! The Saints WR group outside of Thomas is a who's who of nobodies right now: Thomas, Ginn, Smith, Kirkwood, Simmie Cobbs, Rishard Matthews, Small Jordan , Deonte Harris, and Emmanuel Butler.

I left all rookies off my list, but if I was doing a deep cut that included rookies, Emmanuel Butler would be on it for sure. Early breakout age and a high college dominator rating. I think he is already the 4th best WR on the Saints behind Thomas, Smith, and Kirkwood. As an UDFA he has history against him, but he couldn't have fallen into any better of a landing spot with an opportunity for targets if he makes the team.

[Blueboy]

Curtis Samuel.

Absolutely.

I'd also be remiss not to mention Jake Kumerow.

[Prison_Mike]

[/quote]

I appreciate that you appreciate it! The Saints WR group outside of Thomas is a who's who of nobodies right now: Thomas, Ginn, Smith, Kirkwood, Simmie Cobbs, Rishard Matthews, Small Jordan , Deonte Harris, and Emmanuel Butler.

I left all rookies off my list, but if I was doing a deep cut that included rookies, Emmanuel Butler would be on it for sure. Early breakout age and a high college dominator rating. I think he is already the 4th best WR on the Saints behind Thomas, Smith, and Kirkwood. As an UDFA he has history against him, but he couldn't have fallen into any better of a landing spot with an opportunity for targets if he makes the team.
[/quote]

Yeah I only said stick to non-rookies because
A) there have been a few threads on rookie sleepers & UDFAs
B) Boyd wasn’t a rookie

With that said, I forgot all about Butler and will be sure to check the WW for him

[ArrylT]

Depending on how similar you want the guy to be to Tyler Boyd I suppose. I'll go as literal as possible.

That means I shall restrict myself to only WRs drafted in 2017, since we're looking for WRs who breakout in Year III.

So that culls all 2018 & 2019 WRs (as well as 2016 or earlier).

Next Boyd was a decently high draft NFL (day 2) & Rookie dynasty pick (late 1st early 2nd depending on the league & time of rookie draft) in 2016 with a group of backers, that had a good rookie year followed by a disappointing (to say the least) sophomore season.

So that culls all WRs drafted Day III or UDFA.

Like the OP mentioned, his ADP was 190 or worse in the off-season prior to his 2018 breakout.

So that culls the 2017 Wrs who already broke out (like Kupp, JJSS & Golladay) or have flashed enough to have enough owners buoy their ADP (like Mike Williams, Corey Davis & Godwin).

That leaves us with 8 guys.

John Ross
Zay Jones
Curtis Samuel
Taywan Taylor
ArDarius Stewart
Carlos Henderson
Chad Williams
Amara Darboh

Tyler Boyd actually reached around 124-126 points in your typical PPR league or approximately 8 ppg, in his rookie year.

That culls Darboh, Chad Williams, Carlos Henderson, A. Stewart, T. Taylor & John Ross.

Leaving only Zay Jones & Curtis Samuel.

However the ADP requirement disqualifies Samuel, since his ADP is around 100 and has actually been on the rise.

Zay Jones could get disqualified, because his ADP doesnt reach requirements, however his ADP is currently declining (from a high of 120 earlier in off-season) and his situation - like Boyds in 2018 - looks suboptimal at first glance - just for different reasons.

So if you are looking for the WR most likely to follow the Tyler Boyd path to rebounding relevance - Zay Jones is likely your best bet. While his rookie ADP was lower than Boyds, that can be explained partially by the strong depth of the 2017 class. He does check all the boxes otherwise

Strong collegiate resume
3rd year WR
Day II WR
Same team (meaning he is on the team that drafted him)
undervalued ADP
Suboptimal situation at first glance that could break his way.

However I would warn that Zay Jones is not Tyler Boyd - different player with different talents & different situation - so it would be risky to assume the same outcome - so unless you're getting in on the ground floor (ie paying prices similar to his ADP) it is not a recommended buy (imho).