Does Anyone Still Believe: N'Keal Harry Edition

[Defender]

I think the explanations given to explain the recent Pats drafting conundrum are pretty funny: “to ease the transition from Brady to the next QB,” or something like that. This flies in the face of nearly 20 years of Belichick data. No, this has McDaniels’s fingerprints all over it. We know ownership/front office did not want to lose him, so they upped his contract and (reportedly) named him successor to BB. Though I have not seen it reported anywhere, it is likely they also granted him more day on the team in the meantime. McDaniels, not Belichick, is the reason why the last two 1st rd picks have been spent on skill positions. So keep that in mind when you tell yourself, ‘the Patriots rarely miss on their picks.’

[Krypto_King]

N'Keal Harry is, objectively, an exceptional prospect. 90th percentile breakout age + dominator. First round draft pick, has the goat throwing him the football. Incredibly versatile, takes handoffs, slot routes, x routes, special teams production. What am I missing?

sure, if you choose your specific objectives. All those things you listed about versatility are the same thing. He's good with the ball in his hands. They were creative in getting him the ball because he couldn't do it in traditional fashion.

It's staring everyone right in the face. It's on every scouting report. It's also the single thing you need besides human hands to be a good receiver. The ability to get open. We don't need to overthink it.

[Sriracha]

N'Keal Harry is, objectively, an exceptional prospect. 90th percentile breakout age + dominator. First round draft pick, has the goat throwing him the football. Incredibly versatile, takes handoffs, slot routes, x routes, special teams production. What am I missing?

sure, if you choose your specific objectives. All those things you listed about versatility are the same thing. He's good with the ball in his hands. They were creative in getting him the ball because he couldn't do it in traditional fashion.

It's staring everyone right in the face. It's on every scouting report. It's also the single thing you need besides human hands to be a good receiver. The ability to get open. We don't need to overthink it.

But you are overthinking it

[Titans95]

Reportedly, he's not getting consistent separation in Pats practices, either. Hands are good, though.

In his defense that article referenced Stephen Gilmore as the one he was struggling to separate against, I think it would be more odd to hear Gilmore who is a top 5 shutdown CB from last season was unable to shut a rookie down in mini camp.

[Servo]

In his defense that article referenced Stephen Gilmore as the one he was struggling to separate against, I think it would be more odd to hear Gilmore who is a top 5 shutdown CB from last season was unable to shut a rookie down in mini camp.

Lol and I believe he was PFF's best cornerback last year.

[Phaded]

Yeah I think Harry will struggle to seperate at the NFL level; but even I would not read into him not shedding Gillmore.

[Cult of Dionysus]

It wasn't just Gilmore, reports that I saw say he was struggling against other DBs as well.

[FantasyFreak]

On the latest episode of the Not Sunday podcast, Ryan Hannable and Andy Hart shared what they saw.

“I thought there was more bad than good," Hart said. "If I had to do a 60/40 split, I would say 60 bad, 40 good. I think his hands are questionable. Too many balls bounced off his hands. Now, whether that is mental because he is thinking and he doesn’t know where he’s supposed to be, or he isn’t where he’s supposed to be. Slants were behind him, deflecting and all that stuff — OK, that could be true. Maybe once his head catches up to him, his hands will be fine because he is supposed to be Mr. Contested Balls with strong hands. I was concerned about his hands and certainly the route running is a question mark.”

[Chwf3rd]

N'Keal Harry is, objectively, an exceptional prospect. 90th percentile breakout age + dominator. First round draft pick, has the goat throwing him the football. Incredibly versatile, takes handoffs, slot routes, x routes, special teams production. What am I missing?

Have you watched him play or are you just looking at playerprofiler? You can clearly see that he’s a contested catch and YAC guy on film that struggled to separate vs PAC 12 DBs. He was not regarded as the clear WR1 in this class by most analysts and neither did the NFL view him as such, given that he was the 2nd WR drafted and was take in the same range as a bunch of other WRs.

I like Harry just I don’t love him and I think he should be viewed as being a lot closer to the other WRs (Deebo, DK, Campbell, etc) then he currently is.

[Sriracha]

N'Keal Harry is, objectively, an exceptional prospect. 90th percentile breakout age + dominator. First round draft pick, has the goat throwing him the football. Incredibly versatile, takes handoffs, slot routes, x routes, special teams production. What am I missing?

Have you watched him play or are you just looking at playerprofiler? You can clearly see that he’s a contested catch and YAC guy on film that struggled to separate vs PAC 12 DBs. He was not regarded as the clear WR1 in this class by most analysts and neither did the NFL view him as such, given that he was the 2nd WR drafted and was take in the same range as a bunch of other WRs.

I like Harry just I don’t love him and I think he should be viewed as being a lot closer to the other WRs (Deebo, DK, Campbell, etc) then he currently is.

You can clearly see whatever you want to on film; especially in college. Can't separate vs PAC 12 DBs? Depends on the route he's running. Patriots had a much higher grade than late 1st on Harry, and the next WR taken was Deebo at #33 from the same team that drafted Jalen Hurd in the 3rd round and a punter in the 4th. Then it was AJB at #51. The fact that Harry was taken in the 1st at all, in a ridiculously deep WR class, let's you know that at least the Patriots thought he was a significantly good WR prospect.

I agree the hype on him is a little premature... some people are valuing him higher than DJ Moore, which is a mistake, but he's by far the best WR prospect in this draft (besides Hollywood, who's just a much riskier pick given his size and situation).

[ninotoreS]

You can clearly see whatever you want to on film; especially in college.

Er, no. For example, separation can be objectively measured on paused tape, down to distance. It's there, or it isn't.

However, subjective make-believe -- i.e. in this particular context, believing you're seeing something that you, in fact, are not... or the inverse, convincing yourself you're not seeing something that you, in fact, are -- is a separate issue, and ofc can be a cause of perceptive error in practically any context.

Tendency to fail to separate -- in particular from press coverage -- is an objective fact of Harry's college tape. You can pause the film frame by frame to confirm its reality. It's not a nebulous observation.

a ridiculously deep WR class

This is not a deep rookie class for anything but pass-rushers.

There have been worse WR classes in recent memory -- 2016 comes to mind -- but at the most reasonably optimistic, this WR class must be considered average.

You want a proper example of "ridiculously deep"? Look to next year. Oh boy.

[FantasyFreak]

"Potential" is a funny thing.
I still remember when the NFL scouting reported listed Laquon Treadwell's player comparison as DeAndre Hopkins..

Everything in the eye of the beholder, I guess.
I have not modified my stance on Harry, for the record.

Anyone can throw a few clips together and claim player X can become player Y. People need to realize Larry Fitzgerald is a HOF talent, was drafted in the top 3, and his numbers in his 2nd season (his last) at Pitt dwarfed Harry's numbers. He had 92 catches for 1672 yards (18.2 avg) and a ridiculous 22 TD's.

[Sriracha]

You can clearly see whatever you want to on film; especially in college.

Er, no. For example, separation can be objectively measured on paused tape, down to distance. It's there, or it isn't.

However, subjective make-believe -- i.e. in this particular context, believing you're seeing something that you, in fact, are not... or the inverse, convincing yourself you're not seeing something that you, in fact, are -- is a separate issue, and ofc can be a cause of perceptive error in practically any context.

Tendency to fail to separate -- in particular from press coverage -- is an objective fact of Harry's college tape. You can pause the film frame by frame to confirm its reality. It's not a nebulous observation.

Obviously separation is a somewhat objective measurement. The selection of which routes to look at when determining this is not, though. How does he look separating on double moves and in-breaking routes? I agree he's not good vs press, yet. But do you think not being able to beat press coverage in college is a death sentence for a 6'3 228lb receiver, or do you think that his technique can improve? Harry is not going to light the league on fire from day 1, he has faults that will prevent him from having success in the NFL until he polishes them up. But every one of those faults is likely teachable, and given his early break out age he's likely very apt at learning them.

a ridiculously deep WR class

This is not a deep rookie class for anything but pass-rushers.

There have been worse WR classes in recent memory -- 2016 comes to mind -- but at the most reasonably optimistic, this WR class must be considered average.

You want a proper example of "ridiculously deep"? Look to next year. Oh boy.

Next year's class has a ton of top end talent, but it's not as deep as this year's class. More rookies WRs and UDFA's have been signed to rosters this season than there has been in the last 7 years.

[ninotoreS]

Everyone separates on a successful double-move.

Beware overrating double-moves, btw. We love them in highlights, but there's a reason double-moves are rare, especially in the NFL -- usually the QB doesn't have time to wait for it, and even if he does, double-moves naturally have an imprecise route-schedule, and NFL QBs need to avoid staring down a target before throwing.

The best WRs in the NFL get open with one move. It's faster, and it stays on schedule.


Anyway, Harry didn't usually shed press coverage, regardless of route. This is one of the reasons he's been discussed becoming a so-called "big slot" in the pros; it would help mitigate that flaw.

As for the class, whether or not its 'deep' is commonly understood to mean whether or not a plurality of prospects are confidently expected to become valuable long-term pros. As soon as tier 2 of this class's rookie WRs, that confidence shrinks. Lots of undrafted players being signed is nice (and I'm taking your word for that), but statistically most of them will be on practice-squads or out of the league entirely in three years or less.

[Sriracha]

As for the class, whether or not its 'deep' is commonly understood to mean whether or not a plurality of prospects are confidently expected to become valuable long-term pros. As soon as tier 2 of this class's rookie WRs, that confidence shrinks.

WR has the highest bust rate of any position in the NFL (except QB, but that's improving).

The more shots you have, the more likely you are to hit. It would not surprise me at all if 5 or 6 of these late round/UDFAs make a name for themselves in the next 3 years. Which one, though? I have my guys, but who the hell knows.

I guess we'll just agree to disagree on how much Harry's flaws caught on film are going to matter in the NFL 2 years from now. Time will tell.