Top Contrarian Picks

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:42 am

IZigUZag wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:33 pm
TheNuts wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:28 pm I can guarantee Bryce Love will not be the best running back. Not even close. He is the opposite of smooth when he runs, and his agility seems pretty poor for a smaller running back.
There's more than one way to skin a cat. Other small RBs have done well as slasher type running backs. Jamaal Charles for instance, who also wasn't very agile despite being a smaller back
:shock: Jamaal Charles tested in the 89th percentile for agility.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Lord_Varys » Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:42 am

I like the concept of this thread. I fear it's turning into another "Bold Opinions" or "Plant your Flag" thread.

Popular opinion: David Johnson is an elite fantasy RB1 again.
Contrarian opinion: Hell no. I get it: last year was a down year and he was still RB12 or something. Kliff's great, Kyler's great, OK, all good. But David Johnson is being priced at his absolute ceiling, currently at 1.05 in draft.com best balls. I liked him when he was going in the early 2nd. I thought he was fair value late in the first. But he's regularly going ahead of Melvin Gordon right now, which is frankly insane, and ahead of several other running backs I'd still prefer. David Johnson still is running behind a terrible offensive line. We have absolutely no clue if Kliff's offense is going to translate. They'll be passing the ball a ton, and DJ receptions should be fine, but I do not see the rushing volume or efficiency to put him ahead of Gordon, Adams, Hopkins, even Kelce in best ball drafts. This team is still bad and the offense is going to be choppy, especially the rushing. I am probably crazy, but I think I'd even prefer Nick Chubb ahead of him in half ppr or standard. Which leads me to my next point...

Popular opinion: Kareem Hunt is going to devastate Nick Chubb's value when he returns from suspension, and is worth an 8th round pick in drafts.
Contrarian opinion: Nick Chubb will be a high volume, highly-efficient lead dog all year in Cleveland; a top 5 RB before week 8, and still a low end RB1 once Hunt returns. I'm not blind. I know Kareem Hunt will get some kind of run. This may form into a 1a/1b relationship once Hunt does return, and both guys will have startable value. But if you are drafting Kareem Hunt in the 8th round, that means you're holding him for 9 weeks until you can even think about putting him in your lineup, and then the best you can hope for is a mid-range RB2. I'm sorry, but if you draft him in anything but the deepest of leagues as a bench stash, then you lose all credibility to me. Hunt is too high, and conversely, Chubb is too low -- ADP around 20 right now. I think after Saquon, Zeke, and Kamara, and maybe Gordon, Nick Chubb has the best combination of talent and situation in the league right now. The OL is strong. The offense will prevent loaded boxes. The defense will provide favorable game scripts all year, and Cincy/Baltimore are both bottom-10 teams that they get to face 4x this year. Am I gonna fade elite RB1 production all the way to the border of the 3rd round cuz Hunt's coming in Week 10? I get some kind of discount, but it's gone way too far. For Chubb to ever sniff round 3, you have to believe that Hunt is going to crush his value when he returns. It's not happening.

Popular opinion: The 49ers backfield will be a 3-man committee, a complete mess, and should be avoided at all costs.
Contrarian opinion: A damn history book, which would tell you that Shanahan's lead RB is a weekly mid-RB2 at worst and high-RB1 at best. I'll admit that this year looks a little unique compared to past years, and I'll also admit that I have no concrete evidence at this time to base my opinion off of (but that's why they're called opinions), but my take is that Shanahan will still identify an RB1 who gets about 60% of the touches, which is typically all his lead RBs ever get anyways (with a couple exceptions). But they still put up big points on that volume. My take is such because I find it hard to believe these players are all so equal to each other that Shanahan simply can't choose one. My guess is that one guy will prove himself as generally the best (and there may be games that call for McKinnon to do more as a receiver, but I think those will be exceptions), and that guy, therefore, will be the one that Shanahan wants to take that lead role. My take expands: the RB2 and RB3 will be the ones mired in the ugly committee/competition for touches, and that Shanahan's RB2 (who's historically had some flex value) will be the position that suffers a hit this year. My take crystalizes: Tevin Coleman is the one to own. He's going in the 7th round of best ball drafts right now. The hate has gone too far. The popular opinion has given me an RB2 in the 7th round draft after draft after draft. Cuz think about it: McKinnon is still recovering from the ACL tear (maybe even starting the year on PUP), and for a guy whose whole game is predicated on sharp cuts, that's going to mean a longer recovery (further: ACL recoveries seem to be followed up with hamstring injuries as guys overcompensate. I know ACL recoveries have gone a long way, but it's still a long shot to return 100% right away in the season immediately following). Matt Breida hurt his pec getting out of bed the other day. Tevin Coleman has the inside track right now, the history of success in Shanahan's system, not a glowing record of health but he's an iron man compared to the other two.... and so I think he opens the year as "the guy", and an instant high end RB2. For insurance, I'm drafting Breida regularly in the 15th round of these (10-man) drafts. Shanahan's backfield is always a fantasy gold mine, it's a strong OL, and popular opinion has made it dirt cheap right now. I'm happy to hold the contrarian opinion that Shanahan will do what he's always done.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby ArrylT » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:01 am

The previous post is what I assume the OP is hoping to get out of this thread. Well done. :thumbup:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Prison_Mike » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:14 am

honcho55 wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:42 pm May as well keep it rolling with RBs, since I took a peek.

LeVeon Bell and Melvin Gordon. Man, I’d be real uncomfortable taking either of these guys at the tail end of the 1st round in a startup, where they are going. What’s the precedent for Bells age/year off/switching teams? For long term? How about Gordon’s mileage? I’ll target these guys for redraft but I’ll take Chubb or Mixon instead for dynasty all day.
Team 1 in my sig is very upset w you right now
Team 1:
12-team | PPR | SuperFlex | 0.5-TEP
Start: 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLX/1SF
QB: Herbert, Kyler, Baker, Jimmy G, Mariota, DTR
RB: Taylor, Saquon, Javonte, Conner, C.Evans, TDP
WR: Chase, Diggs, Olave, Aiyuk, Hollywood, MT, Shaheed
TE: Engram, Woods, Kraft
'24 picks: 1st, 3rd, 4th

Team 2:
12-Team | PPR | SuperFlex | 0.5-TEP
(Start: QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLX/1SF)
QB: Mahomes, Allen, Russ
RB: Breece, JT, Swift, Javonte, Mostert
WR: Chase, Kupp, Aiyuk, Nico, Hollywood, Kirk, MT
TE: Pitts, Njoku, Woods
'24 picks: none

Team 3:
12tm PPR SuperFlex
QB: Hurts, Dak, Stafford, Z.Wilson, DTR
RB: Saquon, Swift, Achane, Kamara, Ford
WR: Jefferson, AJB, ARSB, Nico, Diontae, OBJ
TE: Goedert, Njoku, Fant, Woods
'24 picks: 4th, 4th

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:38 am

TheNuts wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:13 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:48 pm
TheNuts wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:28 pm I can guarantee Bryce Love will not be the best running back. Not even close. He is the opposite of smooth when he runs, and his agility seems pretty poor for a smaller running back.
Cool story. Where is your pick?
Christian Kirk finishes as a top 15 receiver in ppr.

Quicy Enunwa is a WR2 this year

Jaylen Samuels ends up with more touches than James Conner
Cheers. Giving you the gears. I sure hope you're wrong on that last one. :lol:
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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby IBall2 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:40 am

Popular Opinion: Robby Anderson is the WR to own in NYJ.

My Contrarian opinion: Buy Quincy Enunwa now dirt cheap, he has the highest floor in PPR in that offense with WR2 upside. Just signed a nice 4 year extension to stay with the Jets. They signed Crowder in FA which masks Enunwa's value and you can draft him super late.

Current ADP for Jets players:
Bell: 12 overall
R. Anderson: 73 overall
Herndon: 116 overall
Darnold: 158 overall (this is single QB ADP)
Crowder: 172 overall
Enunwa: 185 overall

This seems outlandish to me but I love the value that late in drafts. He's valued at rookie pick #34

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Sriracha » Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:10 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:42 am
IZigUZag wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:33 pm
TheNuts wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:28 pm I can guarantee Bryce Love will not be the best running back. Not even close. He is the opposite of smooth when he runs, and his agility seems pretty poor for a smaller running back.
There's more than one way to skin a cat. Other small RBs have done well as slasher type running backs. Jamaal Charles for instance, who also wasn't very agile despite being a smaller back
:shock: Jamaal Charles tested in the 89th percentile for agility.
haha yea, but when you watch him play he has the same type of wiggle Bryce Love does-- they're always moving north - south which gives the illusion that they're not particularly agile. Love was injured for the combine, which makes him somewhat of a black box prospect; but I suspect he would test very similarly to Charles.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Sriracha » Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:10 am

Contrarian opinion: Hell no. I get it: last year was a down year and he was still RB12 or something. Kliff's great, Kyler's great, OK, all good. But David Johnson is being priced at his absolute ceiling, currently at 1.05 in draft.com best balls. I liked him when he was going in the early 2nd. I thought he was fair value late in the first. But he's regularly going ahead of Melvin Gordon right now, which is frankly insane, and ahead of several other running backs I'd still prefer. David Johnson still is running behind a terrible offensive line. We have absolutely no clue if Kliff's offense is going to translate. They'll be passing the ball a ton, and DJ receptions should be fine, but I do not see the rushing volume or efficiency to put him ahead of Gordon, Adams, Hopkins, even Kelce in best ball drafts. This team is still bad and the offense is going to be choppy, especially the rushing. I am probably crazy, but I think I'd even prefer Nick Chubb ahead of him in half ppr or standard. Which leads me to my next point...
Contrarian, contrarian take ;)

DJ is not being priced at his ceiling. His ceiling (also done with a pretty bad O-line) is historically high RB1. Kamara, CMC, Barkley, Zeke have still yet to come withing 20 points of his best season in ppr.

Kamara and zeke have not come within 60, and 80 points respectively throughout their careers.

If he's being priced at his ceiling, he'd be the clear 1.01

I do get your point, though. And the exuberance on him is definitely on the optimistic side, but I'm gobbling up DJ everywhere at his current price; there's just no other RB after the big 4 that has a better chance at returning elite value at the most important position in fantasy football this season. If I swing and a miss, and he's not a top 5 RB? Big deal, he's still going to be a strong fantasy asset. But if he hits, he could be a league winner.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby TheNuts » Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:23 am

IZigUZag wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:10 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:42 am
IZigUZag wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:33 pm

There's more than one way to skin a cat. Other small RBs have done well as slasher type running backs. Jamaal Charles for instance, who also wasn't very agile despite being a smaller back
:shock: Jamaal Charles tested in the 89th percentile for agility.
haha yea, but when you watch him play he has the same type of wiggle Bryce Love does-- they're always moving north - south which gives the illusion that they're not particularly agile. Love was injured for the combine, which makes him somewhat of a black box prospect; but I suspect he would test very similarly to Charles.
Bryce Love being compared to Jamaal Charles :lol:

I say that he looks unagile because he has to chop his steps to change direction on too many runs. Someone like Henderson is more what you are describing
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Sriracha » Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:29 am

TheNuts wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:23 am
IZigUZag wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:10 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:42 am

:shock: Jamaal Charles tested in the 89th percentile for agility.
haha yea, but when you watch him play he has the same type of wiggle Bryce Love does-- they're always moving north - south which gives the illusion that they're not particularly agile. Love was injured for the combine, which makes him somewhat of a black box prospect; but I suspect he would test very similarly to Charles.
Bryce Love being compared to Jamaal Charles :lol:

I say that he looks unagile because he has to chop his steps to change direction on too many runs. Someone like Henderson is more what you are describing
:lol: I thought I made it clear earlier that comparing any college RB to Jamaal was pretty crazy. Henderson is just not very agile. If you watch Love play, defenders really struggle with touching Love. I'd wager he's pretty agile, but he really is almost always moving north-south during most of his runs; when he does go east-west (rare, but it happens) he looks as agile as any RB out there.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Lord_Varys » Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:50 am

IZigUZag wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:10 am
Contrarian opinion: Hell no. I get it: last year was a down year and he was still RB12 or something. Kliff's great, Kyler's great, OK, all good. But David Johnson is being priced at his absolute ceiling, currently at 1.05 in draft.com best balls. I liked him when he was going in the early 2nd. I thought he was fair value late in the first. But he's regularly going ahead of Melvin Gordon right now, which is frankly insane, and ahead of several other running backs I'd still prefer. David Johnson still is running behind a terrible offensive line. We have absolutely no clue if Kliff's offense is going to translate. They'll be passing the ball a ton, and DJ receptions should be fine, but I do not see the rushing volume or efficiency to put him ahead of Gordon, Adams, Hopkins, even Kelce in best ball drafts. This team is still bad and the offense is going to be choppy, especially the rushing. I am probably crazy, but I think I'd even prefer Nick Chubb ahead of him in half ppr or standard. Which leads me to my next point...
Contrarian, contrarian take ;)

DJ is not being priced at his ceiling. His ceiling (also done with a pretty bad O-line) is historically high RB1. Kamara, CMC, Barkley, Zeke have still yet to come withing 20 points of his best season in ppr.

Kamara and zeke have not come within 60, and 80 points respectively throughout their careers.

If he's being priced at his ceiling, he'd be the clear 1.01

I do get your point, though. And the exuberance on him is definitely on the optimistic side, but I'm gobbling up DJ everywhere at his current price; there's just no other RB after the big 4 that has a better chance at returning elite value at the most important position in fantasy football this season. If I swing and a miss, and he's not a top 5 RB? Big deal, he's still going to be a strong fantasy asset. But if he hits, he could be a league winner.
His OL was way better in 2016. The defense was pretty good, too, helping his game script. This roster right now is still far away, and we've got nooo clue what Kliff or Kyler are going to do in the NFL. Fantasy football is like a game of Texas Hold'em -- you get two cards, talent and situation. We look at the first card and see an Ace. We're just assuming the second card is gonna be another face card. If it's a 6 or an 8, it's still a good hand... i.e., to your point, he's not likely to bust... But he's being priced at about an Ace-Queen right now. The situation is absolutely not going to be another ace this year.

Sorry if my analogy is dumb, I'm full of 'em :)

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby M-Dub » Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:50 am

Not sure why this has become a contrarian opinion, but I’m of the belief that Phillip Lindsay will continue to be the lead back in Denver and put up another high-end RB2 season.
Both are 12-team 1QB PPR dynasties

🦬PRIME🦬
QB: Hurts, Howell
RB: Mixon, Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, Akers, Roschon, Dowdle, Kelley
WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
TE: Hockenson, Chig, Trautman
Taxi: Willis, Z. White, M. Mims, T. Palmer

Hull Awaits
$450 cap, 60 contract years

QB: Lawrence $5/3, Richardson $5/5, Minshew $1/0, Jones $1/0, Heinicke $1/0, Tyrod $1/0
RB: Achane $4/4, Warren $2/4, Roschon $7/5, Dillon $4/1, Hubbard $2/1, Kelley $1/0
WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
TE: Thomas $1/0, Hill $1/0, Parham $1/0

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Sriracha » Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:07 am

Lord_Varys wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:50 am
IZigUZag wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:10 am
Contrarian opinion: Hell no. I get it: last year was a down year and he was still RB12 or something. Kliff's great, Kyler's great, OK, all good. But David Johnson is being priced at his absolute ceiling, currently at 1.05 in draft.com best balls. I liked him when he was going in the early 2nd. I thought he was fair value late in the first. But he's regularly going ahead of Melvin Gordon right now, which is frankly insane, and ahead of several other running backs I'd still prefer. David Johnson still is running behind a terrible offensive line. We have absolutely no clue if Kliff's offense is going to translate. They'll be passing the ball a ton, and DJ receptions should be fine, but I do not see the rushing volume or efficiency to put him ahead of Gordon, Adams, Hopkins, even Kelce in best ball drafts. This team is still bad and the offense is going to be choppy, especially the rushing. I am probably crazy, but I think I'd even prefer Nick Chubb ahead of him in half ppr or standard. Which leads me to my next point...
Contrarian, contrarian take ;)

DJ is not being priced at his ceiling. His ceiling (also done with a pretty bad O-line) is historically high RB1. Kamara, CMC, Barkley, Zeke have still yet to come withing 20 points of his best season in ppr.

Kamara and zeke have not come within 60, and 80 points respectively throughout their careers.

If he's being priced at his ceiling, he'd be the clear 1.01

I do get your point, though. And the exuberance on him is definitely on the optimistic side, but I'm gobbling up DJ everywhere at his current price; there's just no other RB after the big 4 that has a better chance at returning elite value at the most important position in fantasy football this season. If I swing and a miss, and he's not a top 5 RB? Big deal, he's still going to be a strong fantasy asset. But if he hits, he could be a league winner.
His OL was way better in 2016. The defense was pretty good, too, helping his game script. This roster right now is still far away, and we've got nooo clue what Kliff or Kyler are going to do in the NFL. Fantasy football is like a game of Texas Hold'em -- you get two cards, talent and situation. We look at the first card and see an Ace. We're just assuming the second card is gonna be another face card. If it's a 6 or an 8, it's still a good hand... i.e., to your point, he's not likely to bust... But he's being priced at about an Ace-Queen right now. The situation is absolutely not going to be another ace this year.

Sorry if my analogy is dumb, I'm full of 'em :)
All good, I understand where you're coming from..

But their defense in 2016 was pretty average, and they still have some talent this year as well... but Kingsbury is going to put them in a bad position so they're not going to look great. Fair point on gamescript, but I don't know if that actually hurts or helps DJ since he's such a good receiver. Their O-line was better than what we expect out of them this season (much moreso because they were probably the worst O-line in football last season); but this O-line could actually surprise people if they can stay healthy.

I should also add, I have Chubb and him pretty close in .5 ppr/standard. I don't buy the Kareem Hunt hype, and I expect CLE to have one of the more explosive offenses in the NFL next season = you want the goal line back for that offense.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:11 pm

M-Dub wrote: Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:50 am Not sure why this has become a contrarian opinion, but I’m of the belief that Phillip Lindsay will continue to be the lead back in Denver and put up another high-end RB2 season.
I think it's because the new coaching staff and their scheme fit Freeman more than the last one did. Also Freeman is healthy, and impressing coaches and beat reporters. Lindsay is supposedly behind schedule with his wrist, per Cecil Lammey. He may not get into full contact until mid August. I trust Lammey when it comes to Denver, and he was on Lindsay before anybody last year. This year he is saying get Freeman. He is looking the part, supposedly. As explosive as Lindsay is, he isn't the ideal lead back size, and Freeman looking good and being a 3rd round pick, and being 228 pounds or so, sort of gives the impression Lindsay will be losing carries. I do hear they plan to use Lindsay more in the passing game, which makes sense for his profile. So an increase in reception but a decrease in rush attempts looks to be in the cards.
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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby TheNuts » Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:43 pm

I will say this about Freeman, and of course it's just what my eyes told me, but I thought he was as can't miss of a running back as there was coming out (besides a guy like Saquan). He looked phenomenal in college at his size. He looked really good in the preseason. I swear Lindsey was so small that he could fit through the tiny slits for holes. Freeman was just too wide to get through the nearly non existent running lanes.
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver


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