Top Contrarian Picks

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
pvillebiker
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Top Contrarian Picks

Postby pvillebiker » Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:17 pm

What are your top Contrarian Picks for the upcoming season? Summa mine:
  • Jordan Howard will outscore Miles Sanders in at least 2 outta these 3: Rushing yards, Receiving yards and TD's this year. #MeatloafApproved
  • Cooks will lead all Ram's WR's this year in TD's by at least a few.
  • Taking the over on this - "Sammy plays 13 games this year." #BraveLittleToaster
What're yours?

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bjd5211
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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby bjd5211 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:27 pm

Todd Gurley is still a top 5 RB

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Sriracha » Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:41 pm

Bryce Love is the best RB from this draft class.

Antonio Brown is still a top 5 WR

Tyler Lockette is a WR1

Marcus Mariota is a top 10 QB

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Bot101
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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Bot101 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:47 pm

Joe Mixon outscores CMC in non and half ppr

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:55 pm

This seems eerily familiar to a "plant your flag" of "hot take" thread. I'm going to say Todd Gurley will still be a top 5 back, and the Arizona Cardinals offense struggles in year 1, gaining most of it's yards vs soft zones long after the game is out of reach.

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lukkynumber13
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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby lukkynumber13 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:58 pm

Kenny Golladay is exactly what some of us have been hyping him up to be - a high-end WR2 or low-end WR1. A line of 78/1150/8 is what I expect, a line of 85-1300-12 is his absolute ceiling I think.

Todd Gurley is a top 3 RB by season’s end.

Parris Campbell goes under 40 catches & 500 yards from scrimmage. This shouldn’t be considered a hot take, but I fear it is.

Trubisky gets benched at least 2 games this year.

Zach Ertz isn’t a top 3 TE by season’s end.

Damien Harris outscores Sony Michel in total PPR fantasy points this year.

Mark Ingram is closer to a “lead back” than a “leader of a committee” - finishes with 1300 yards from scrimmage & 11 TDs
BOTH TEAMS BELOW ARE 1QB

TEAM A - 12 teams (19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Brees, Ryan, Tua
COOK/JACOBS/MIXON, Dobbins, Hunt, Swift, Singletary, Bell, B Hill, Wilkins
NUK/HILL/GOLLADAY/K ALLEN, Diontae J, Hollywood, Ruggs, Pittman, Hilton, Snead, G Davis
KITTLE, Waller, Akins, H Bryant
-
Not listing my IDP, but they matter as much as offense in this league. Joey Bosa, D-Buck, Sweat, and Cam Jordan are my main studs.
///
///
TEAM B - 32 teams, double copy - TEs get 1.5x bump in scoring
LAMAR, Rivers, Cousins, J Love
SAQUON/MIXON/CARSON, Dobbins, Lindsay, Mattison, Ingram, D Freeman, Clement
NUK/K ALLEN/JULIO/AROB, Evans, Thielen, DJ Moore, Lamb, Boyd, Alshon
KITTLE/L Thomas, Ertz, Reed
Danielle Hunter, Aaron Donald, and Chris Jones are the cornerstones of my IDP squad.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby vixen » Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:09 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:41 pm
Bryce Love is the best RB from this draft class.

oh, I hope you are right.. I finally got a share of him.. got him at 3.02..
team 1 -start QB RB 2WR TE 2RB/WR 1WR/TE
qbs=5pt tds wr/te=1 ppr rbs=.5ppr all get .25ppc
mahomes, Dan Jones
kamara, mack, lindsay,Love, Pollard
antonio, AJG, thielen, sutton, kirk, Hurd, JJAW, Slayton, Gage
Hooper, Herndon
team 2 -start QB 2RB 3WR TE 2Flex K D
Cousins, Jimmy GQ, Brissett
DHenry, DJ, DFreeman, McKinnon, Darwin Thompson, CEH, JT/Mack
Hopkins, Diggs, Adams, Sutton,Jo Brown, Boyd, ]JJAW, Harmon, Preston Williams, Coulter, Collin Johnson
Andrews, Herndon, Fant, Albert O
team 3-superflex/TE premium 1-2QB 1-6RB 2-7WR 1-6TE (10 total)
R/W=.2ppc/1ppr/.25pt per target TE=1.5ppr/.35per target/.15per yd
also .1pt per return yd/.05 per attempt
Josh Allen,Jones, Love
Cook, Chubb, Sanders, Swift, Vaughn, Latavius
Lockett, Kupp, Jo Brown, Slayton, Preston Williams, Isabella, Hurd, Funchess, Edwards, Collin Johnson
Andrews, Herndon/Griffin, I Thomas, Fant, Moreau, Parham, Asiasi, Gronk

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby TheNuts » Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:28 pm

I can guarantee Bryce Love will not be the best running back. Not even close. He is the opposite of smooth when he runs, and his agility seems pretty poor for a smaller running back.
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:48 pm

TheNuts wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:28 pm
I can guarantee Bryce Love will not be the best running back. Not even close. He is the opposite of smooth when he runs, and his agility seems pretty poor for a smaller running back.
Cool story. Where is your pick?

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Sriracha » Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:33 pm

TheNuts wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:28 pm
I can guarantee Bryce Love will not be the best running back. Not even close. He is the opposite of smooth when he runs, and his agility seems pretty poor for a smaller running back.
There's more than one way to skin a cat. Other small RBs have done well as slasher type running backs. Jamaal Charles for instance, who also wasn't very agile despite being a smaller back (not saying he's Jamaal Charles, that'd be an insane comparison to make for any RB coming out of college).

But he's fast, really fast with good contact balance, and for a guy who's "agility seems pretty poor" he makes a lot of guys miss in the open field (he's very good at finding cutback lanes, and changing up his speed to trick defenders into bad pursuit angles).

The question will be how does he recover from the ACL? And can he survive the NFL punishment (always seemed dinged up in college)

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby honcho55 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:36 pm

Hmm, contrarian picks. This is tough, since just about any take you have, there’s an article/tweet/post saying the same thing somewhere.

Anyways, I’ve been drinking a bit, a couple come to mind, both at QB where I historically suck, so they are both likely wrong!

1: Lamar Jackson will be a good-to-awesome nfl QB(at least briefly), and good fantasy option. I haven’t acted on this thought because I tend to stay safe and strong at QB rather than trust my takes (see sig league)

2: Jimmy G is a waste of time. I thought he was massively overrated before injury, so I was saved there. I’m skimming ADP right now and I’d rather own the next 10 QBs.
my main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
14 team
start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT. *adding SF 2021

QB: Wilson, Watson, Herbert
RB: S Barkley, J Taylor, JK Dobbins, T Coleman, G Bernard, R Anderson
WR: J Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, A Cooper, C Kirk, A Miller, K Coutee, S Sims
TE. T Kelce, I Thomas, M Gesicki, W Dissly

Futures
2021: 1, 2, 2
2022: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3
2023: 1, 1, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby honcho55 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:42 pm

May as well keep it rolling with RBs, since I took a peek.

LeVeon Bell and Melvin Gordon. Man, I’d be real uncomfortable taking either of these guys at the tail end of the 1st round in a startup, where they are going. What’s the precedent for Bells age/year off/switching teams? For long term? How about Gordon’s mileage? I’ll target these guys for redraft but I’ll take Chubb or Mixon instead for dynasty all day.
my main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
14 team
start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT. *adding SF 2021

QB: Wilson, Watson, Herbert
RB: S Barkley, J Taylor, JK Dobbins, T Coleman, G Bernard, R Anderson
WR: J Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, A Cooper, C Kirk, A Miller, K Coutee, S Sims
TE. T Kelce, I Thomas, M Gesicki, W Dissly

Futures
2021: 1, 2, 2
2022: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3
2023: 1, 1, 3, 4, 5

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Hottoddies
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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby Hottoddies » Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:49 pm

* Carlos Hyde will be a starting RB for the Chiefs this year.

* Joe Flacco will lead the Broncos to a winning record.

* Malcolm Brown will be the starting RB for the Rams in week 16.
Megan Phelps' 4 rules of dialogue
1) Don't assume bad intent
2) Ask questions
3) Stay calm
4) Make the argument

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:56 pm

TJ Yeldon wlll be the back to own in Buffalo this year.

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Re: Top Contrarian Picks

Postby TheNuts » Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:13 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:48 pm
TheNuts wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:28 pm
I can guarantee Bryce Love will not be the best running back. Not even close. He is the opposite of smooth when he runs, and his agility seems pretty poor for a smaller running back.
Cool story. Where is your pick?
Christian Kirk finishes as a top 15 receiver in ppr.

Quicy Enunwa is a WR2 this year

Jaylen Samuels ends up with more touches than James Conner
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver


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