June Rookie ADP Observations

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jcc6fd
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June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby jcc6fd » Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:01 pm

I know many rookie drafts have already happened but I wanted to share some observations from my predraft process.

I compile a spreadsheet where I list the top 40-50 consensus rookies and list data points like, NFL team, height, weight, position, NLF draft position, combine metrics, SPARQ/advanced metrics, (playerprofiler.com), college dominator, ect. and do a gut check comparison of all these factors to dynasty ADP (I use Mizelle's dynasty ADP utility, which is awesome). This is not a statistical analysis, and I don't claim to be a statistician, it's just helpful in that it provides some objective stats to compare my film watching and news reading to when making my personal rankings. This year I thought I'd share some brief reactions to Mizelle's June ADP. A caveat should be noted that these are startup drafts which I assume do not directly correlate perfectly to actual rookie draft ADP. Mizelle's rookie draft page only includes a top 10-12 rankings, so I use the startup numbers for my 3-4 round analysis.

ADP link (filtered for June only and Rookies only): http://mizelle.net/mfl/2019/

One last time, these are merely my observations in comparing ADP to the above listed metrics. College observations or better statistical analysis will obviously lead to different conclusions, but I think this is interesting.

1st round (picks 1-12)

Overrated Players:
David Montgomery (ADP 1.03)
Guy is drafted in the 3rd round and has so many talented players drafted in front of him. He has good size but his measurables are average to bad across the board. Based on measurables and draft capital he wreaks of a player who is overdrafted due to perceived opportunity who ultimately disappoints at his overall ADP of 1.03 (thinking Royce Freeman). I realize this is product of the RB landscape and that RB production is so hard to come by, but this feels like a desperate reach. He's a player I'd avoid based on his price.

Darrell Henderson (ADP 1.06)
Yes, you read that correctly. Darrell Henderson is the consensus 1.06 by ADP based almost solely on offseason news about Todd Gurley. There's a long debate about this already ongoing, but suffice to say his 3rd round pedigree, while playing behind an entrenched franchise player make his ADP seem extremely lofty. He's going ahead of AJ Brown... It's a shame because based on the film he's a guy I would have liked to take a chance on. But those highlight videos where he's running through gaping holes untouched against Mercer don't convince me he's a mid-early first rounder.

Most Underrated player: Deebo Samuel (ADP 1.12)
Third WR taken in the NFL draft in the very early 2nd round (2.04). I understand the arguments for Harry, Brown, DK and maybe even Campbell being taken ahead of him. But Hardman and both TEs are also going ahead of him. I don't think 1.12 is an egregiously low spot, but it seems like a really good value for a guy who is going under the radar with good draft capital, good measurables, nice college production when healthy and a fairly wide open depth chart in SF. Only definite knock is his health history and age (he's older because he missed time in college), but Samuel seems like an upside guy you get at a discount because he flew under the radar. BTW he looks like an absolute wrecking ball after the catch.

Biggest Snub: Marquise Brown (APD 1.13)
I know the numerous knocks against this guy: size, injury history, drafted by a run first team with questionable QB play. I understand why he's fallen for many, but it just seems odd to me that an electric playmaker who was the first WR taken in the draft can't make it into the first round if rookie drafts. We often say talent should outweigh situation but this wreaks of situation outweighing talent. Think Brown is a great value at the turn of the first round. I've heard he's fallen further in some leagues.

2nd round (picks 13-24)

Overrated Player: Justice Hill (ADP 16)
Guy is taken in the 4th round, by a team with a ton of RBs ahead of him on the depth chart, and he's going ahead of Kyler Murray (1 QB), Andy Isabella and Devin Singletary? That seems odd to me. It has to be the 4.40 forty time, right? If he can run that fast and was drafted that late, it means something.

Underrated Players: Andy Isabella (ADP 18) Devin Singletary (ADP 19)
Based purely on draft position these guys appear to be values at their current ADP. Not advocating to take either much higher but Isabella is in the same NFL draft range of most of the WR's taken in the first round of rookie drafts but can be had considerably cheaper. Obviously there are reasons why but in this year's rookie class he seems to be a value. Singletary could be a huge value a year from now with less internal competition in buffalo. Heck he could be a great value a lot earlier if Buffalo waives McCoy. I like him at his current price.

3rd round (picks 25-36) - No Overrated players at this point in the draft

Guys I like: Bryce Love (ADP 33), Miles Boykin, (ADP 27), Dwayne Haskins (ADP 32) Rodney Anderson (ADP 40)
In this year's draft you could get Bryce Love, a former Heismen candidate and fourth round RB, for the price of a very late 3rd. That seems like tremendous value. Throw in Guice's injury uncertainty and this feels like a slam dunk (for a flier anyway). I'm skeptical that Love is falling this far in true rookie drafts.

Miles Boykin is another Raven I feel is dropping solely due to the Lamar Jackson effect. Boykin's measurables were only topped by DK. He's tall, big and very fast, with better agility than DK too (but who doesn't). Chris Conley seems like the floor here (they're actually comp'd on playerprofiler), but Boykin feels like a great upside pick, which I love in the 3rd.

At pick 32 of a draft known for being shallow, getting a NFL first round selection has to feel like a win. I know Haskins is a QB and that he's not viewed as a particularly enticing fantasy QB. But who is more likely to be a fantasy asset, Haskins or Dexter Williams (6th round RB for GB)? I'd have to feel very strongly about my flier pick to take him above Haskins 25-32.

Anderson is appropriately not getting much love in mocks. His situation behind Mixon is not a great one. But Mixon (and all RBs) get hurt and Anderson feels like a big upside pick or even a free WW add depending on league size. If you can roster him for free I'd be chasing him.
10 Team Half PPR Scoring: 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1Flex DST K
QB: Mahomes, Super Cam, Darnold, D. Jones
RB: Gurley, Fournette, Cook, Guice, Lindsay, D. Henderson, Bernard, M. Brown, J. Jackson
WR: Julio, K. Allen, Cooks, TY, Edelman, Ty Williams, MVS
TE: Kelce, Cook, McDonald
IR: B. Love


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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:20 pm

There's still plenty of time to enjoy the Marquise Brown discount. Feel free to continue selecting worse football players over him.

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby Bot101 » Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:38 pm

Two thumbs up. Solid read.

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:43 pm

I disagree with many of the takes, but you clearly put a lot of thought into this. Well done.
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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:56 pm

Yes, you read that correctly. Darrell Henderson is the consensus 1.06 by ADP based almost solely on offseason news about Todd Gurley.

Who's Todd Gurley?
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Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
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Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby jcc6fd » Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:05 pm

Thanks for the kind words everyone. For those who have conflicting view points, I’d like to hear them. We haven’t drafted yet and I’d appreciate your input. I know these threads can sometimes get toxic with critical feedback but I don’t intend to further justify anything said in the OP, unless there are questions.

Edit: particularly interested with thoughts on Deebo relative to his ADP. I think he’s mine if I want him at 1.09, but obviously that’s higher than consensus
10 Team Half PPR Scoring: 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1Flex DST K
QB: Mahomes, Super Cam, Darnold, D. Jones
RB: Gurley, Fournette, Cook, Guice, Lindsay, D. Henderson, Bernard, M. Brown, J. Jackson
WR: Julio, K. Allen, Cooks, TY, Edelman, Ty Williams, MVS
TE: Kelce, Cook, McDonald
IR: B. Love

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby TheNuts » Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:20 pm

jcc6fd wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:05 pm
Thanks for the kind words everyone. For those who have conflicting view points, I’d like to hear them. We haven’t drafted yet and I’d appreciate your input. I know these threads can sometimes get toxic with critical feedback but I don’t intend to further justify anything said in the OP, unless there are questions.

Edit: particularly interested with thoughts on Deebo relative to his ADP. I think he’s mine if I want him at 1.09, but obviously that’s higher than consensus
I would like Deebo a little more if there weren't so many quality receivers and so many potential options on the team already. Trent Taylor seems to be a forgotten man, but he is close to an Edelman type. I don't expect Taylor to be a huge factor, but Garoppolo learned from a system that featured am Edelman type.

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby sloth8u » Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:34 pm

rather than taunt you.....we'll call it a crap shoot. I said it earlier this offseason to some leaguemates that parris is the guy to own this draft. its a "who's who" after 1.1...and that's only because things seem great for Jacobs....so ppl are taking the "value" here...

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby IZigUZag » Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:22 pm

Darrell Henderson (ADP 1.06)
Yes, you read that correctly. Darrell Henderson is the consensus 1.06 by ADP based almost solely on offseason news about Todd Gurley. There's a long debate about this already ongoing, but suffice to say his 3rd round pedigree, while playing behind an entrenched franchise player make his ADP seem extremely lofty. He's going ahead of AJ Brown... It's a shame because based on the film he's a guy I would have liked to take a chance on. But those highlight videos where he's running through gaping holes untouched against Mercer don't convince me he's a mid-early first rounder.
Henderson's ADP seems pretty fair given that Gurley's knee is indeed a question mark. You can't just entirely discount the upside he has if Gurley does have issues this season. Maybe Gurley is fine, maybe not (probably not) but that upside is still there. Especially with news that the Rams want to limit Gurley's touches that raises Henderson's floor as well. He'll probably be a flex with 10-15 touches in that offense, with the potential to be more if his penchant for the big play transfers over to the NFL.

I completely agree with Bryce Love being a screaming value in the 3rd.

I'd also add that JJAW and Diontae are my screaming values of the draft. Both of those guys belong with the AJB, DKs of this draft but they usually last until the mid 2nd to 3rd round.

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:33 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:22 pm
Darrell Henderson (ADP 1.06)
Yes, you read that correctly. Darrell Henderson is the consensus 1.06 by ADP based almost solely on offseason news about Todd Gurley. There's a long debate about this already ongoing, but suffice to say his 3rd round pedigree, while playing behind an entrenched franchise player make his ADP seem extremely lofty. He's going ahead of AJ Brown... It's a shame because based on the film he's a guy I would have liked to take a chance on. But those highlight videos where he's running through gaping holes untouched against Mercer don't convince me he's a mid-early first rounder.
Henderson's ADP seems pretty fair given that Gurley's knee is indeed a question mark. You can't just entirely discount the upside he has if Gurley does have issues this season. Maybe Gurley is fine, maybe not (probably not) but that upside is still there. Especially with news that the Rams want to limit Gurley's touches that raises Henderson's floor as well. He'll probably be a flex with 10-15 touches in that offense, with the potential to be more if his penchant for the big play transfers over to the NFL.

I completely agree with Bryce Love being a screaming value in the 3rd.

I'd also add that JJAW and Diontae are my screaming values of the draft. Both of those guys belong with the AJB, DKs of this draft but they usually last until the mid 2nd to 3rd round.
If it's justified then this class is bad. To take a guy who is projected as a COP back flex play in the mid/early first and questions or not, is behind one of the most talented backs of the last 10-15 years is either an indication of a reach or a bad rookie class. If Gurley returns to even close to his old form, Henderson will not be worth the pick. Gurley is on another plain of talent to Mark Ingram, and it's probable that Kamara compared to Henderson as well, so anybody thinking of that dynamic and expecting dependable production year 1, especially since Malcolm Brown will also likely siphon touches away from Henderson, which people refuse to think or talk about.
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Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:42 pm

Shhh stop pointing out truths about Henderson, I still have some upcoming drafts and like that he's going so high now so other players drop.

Let's get the Mecole Hardman hype train going full speed too.

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby IZigUZag » Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:45 pm

Yes, this class of RBs is pretty lackluster; and the need for RBs is pushing up Henderson's value just as much as the Gurley news. I personally believe the Gurley news (very strongly) so flex with RB1 upside is unfortunately worth the 1.06 spot in this draft :c

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:54 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:45 pm
Yes, this class of RBs is pretty lackluster; and the need for RBs is pushing up Henderson's value just as much as the Gurley news. I personally believe the Gurley news (very strongly) so flex with RB1 upside is unfortunately worth the 1.06 spot in this draft :c
You need to put "news" in quotation marks, because it isn't news, it's speculation. I believe the ADP is a direct cause of the media echo chamber that simply discusses Gurley's knee, and people start believing it, despite the fact no new information has come out. People are focusing on the negative, and it's pushing his ADP up. There is both positive and negative speculation about Gurley, but people are focusing on the negative and this in the only reason Henderson's ADP is so high. Anyway, don't want to derail this thread. There are 2 threads already discussing this.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: June Rookie ADP Observations

Postby IZigUZag » Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:45 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:54 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:45 pm
Yes, this class of RBs is pretty lackluster; and the need for RBs is pushing up Henderson's value just as much as the Gurley news. I personally believe the Gurley news (very strongly) so flex with RB1 upside is unfortunately worth the 1.06 spot in this draft :c
You need to put "news" in quotation marks, because it isn't news, it's speculation. I believe the ADP is a direct cause of the media echo chamber that simply discusses Gurley's knee, and people start believing it, despite the fact no new information has come out. People are focusing on the negative, and it's pushing his ADP up. There is both positive and negative speculation about Gurley, but people are focusing on the negative and this in the only reason Henderson's ADP is so high. Anyway, don't want to derail this thread. There are 2 threads already discussing this.
:lol: You're free to believe what you wish. At worst there is a fair chance that the people worried about Gurley's health are correct, and that upside should be included. If you're completely disregarding the doubt over his health... you're doing even more speculation on the other end of the spectrum.


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