Does Anyone Still Believe: N'Keal Harry Edition

[Patsfan86]

No, I'm not comparing Harry to Gordon... I'm saying that if Gordon barely got 4-5 targets a game, then a guy like Harry will get fewer. He's in line for Hogan level targets, 2-3 a game. But not the same kind of routes, as Hogan is sneaky good at going long.

Pats offense will be very basic this season... Run, pass to RBs, pass to Edelmanm, have Harry and Dorsett stretch the field while all the action happens behind them.

I completely disagree. The pats are simultaneously in win now mode while also building for the future. They rarely if ever take skill guys early, they have now gone back to back years taking skill position players early. This is so Brady can have good shiny new toys he can utilize so they can win now AND so those shiny new toys can learn under Brady (the GOAT) while he is still there, so they can be better prepared post Brady. Harry is also much more Gronk like, just because he is a WR doesnt mean he wont be utilized a lot like Gronk. Im not saying he will even come close to being as good as gronk but what i am saying is he has gronk qualities. Redzone, YAC guy who is physical. Gronk was rarely wide open, he was great because of his ability to get the ball then destroy guys in his way to get the extra yards. I just dont understand your thinking at all when you say Harry will only get 2-3 targets a game? Thats very unrealistic when you compare him to the rest of the roster. They are not going to do that with their first round pick, especially with the trash that is the rest of their WR group. Also from every thing i hear about Harry he is ultra competitive and the kind of guy Brady will love. I expect him to be featured early and often in the season, 6-7 targets in his first game, and it may climb from there. Also as someone mentioned they could have found PLENTY of "stretch the field guys" without spending a first round pick on them.

[Titans95]

No, I'm not comparing Harry to Gordon... I'm saying that if Gordon barely got 4-5 targets a game, then a guy like Harry will get fewer. He's in line for Hogan level targets, 2-3 a game. But not the same kind of routes, as Hogan is sneaky good at going long.

Pats offense will be very basic this season... Run, pass to RBs, pass to Edelmanm, have Harry and Dorsett stretch the field while all the action happens behind them.

I don't want to get on the bandwagon and say Harry is for sure a stud and will dominate his rookie season as so few WR's do. I just think my main issue with your logic is that Gordon was getting 4-5 targets downfield each game, they didn't draft Harry to stretch the field, they could've easily waited until the 3rd or 4th round and got guys like DK or Miles Boykin or even Isabella. Not all teams make great decisions but the Pats usually do and I just have a hard time believing they spent highly coveted 1st round draft capital on a guy they don't intend to be a huge part of their offense.

The Pats offense is anything but basic but I do understand what you're getting at and I completely agree. Brady doesn't have the arm to be playing like Russell Wilson or Mahomes but the Patriots offense for quite a long time has been "death by a thousand cuts", like you said set the tone with a strong run game and work the short and intermediate passes where Tom is deadly accurately and great at reading defenses. This goes hand in hand with Harry's skill set. He's not a burner, he's a super physical WR that will impose his will on smaller CB's to get open and then use his YAC ability to move the chains. Dorsett and maybe Gordon will be the field stretchers not Harry.

Like another poster said, if Harry is going to win he's going to win by playing super physical like Gronk, not with speed or with quickness and I think most analysts would agree that is what Harry does best. Most Likely this will be how the Pats view him and will try to put him in that position to succeed. He may utterly bust but the Pats intend to give him every chance to succeed and be the future #1 on that team.

[Patsfan86]

I do understand what you are thinking Cult about it being a "simplified offense" since Brady has declined a tad bit and cant throw the ball deep. But wouldnt that also make a guy like Harry even more valuable since he can create for himself if he gets the ball in his hands? He can make a 10 yard catch go for 20 or 30 on his own. I can see them drawing up plays specifically for him just like this. A 5 yard slant route he turns into 10 yards.

[DelawareRiverEagles]

Last 1st round WR selected by Patriots I believe was Terry Glenn (4 1000+ yard seasons).

... 23 years ago and pre-BB.

Yes but that is the point. The Patriots have no recent history of 1st round WR busts and very little in the way of Day II busts either so anyone saying their success rate with early WRs is a negative for Harry as a landing spot is reaching to make an argument.

Dobson was a bust.

[Patsfan86]

... 23 years ago and pre-BB.

Yes but that is the point. The Patriots have no recent history of 1st round WR busts and very little in the way of Day II busts either so anyone saying their success rate with early WRs is a negative for Harry as a landing spot is reaching to make an argument.

Dobson was a bust.

He was but thats why he stated "very little in the way of Day II busts".

[ArrylT]

https://www.espn.com/blog/boston/new-en ... keal-harry

Looks like Edelman is mentoring Harry. Hopefully that is a positive step.

[Shankopotamus]

Dominator and breakout age are elite, but the tape doesn't show an explosive athlete. I don't get the hype as 1.01 and think he's a bust.

[bsp27]

N'Keal Harry is, objectively, an exceptional prospect. 90th percentile breakout age + dominator. First round draft pick, has the goat throwing him the football. Incredibly versatile, takes handoffs, slot routes, x routes, special teams production. What am I missing?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

N'Keal Harry is, objectively, an exceptional prospect. 90th percentile breakout age + dominator. First round draft pick, has the goat throwing him the football. Incredibly versatile, takes handoffs, slot routes, x routes, special teams production. What am I missing?

His QB in college underthrew every ball thrown to him so ppl think he can’t separate.

[ninotoreS]

Reportedly, he's not getting consistent separation in Pats practices, either. Hands are good, though.

[wickerkat1212]

I think he has a high floor—which would be an average WR in the NFL, with significant upside. With Brady he could be a top 20 WR, or higher. Allen Robinson, with upside.

[sugbear65]

So is the basic argument for him busting “because when I watch the film he looks slow”? That seems to be my takeaway here, which is pretty silly. Putting aside that to me he doesn’t look slow or lumbering at all like some are painting the picture to be, can we acknowledge the fact he was never considered a burner to begin with. His game is built on more than just pure speed, so focusing in on that doesn’t make a ton of sense.
Also funny to me is how going to the greatest coach and QB combo in the history of the game , a perennial offensive powerhouse who has an obvious need for WR help, can be viewed as a negative.

[Pullo Vision]

This is a football article, but still good- Harry has an NFL ready skill set with !Harry Fitzgerald potential- https://www.patreon.com/posts/nkeal-harry-term-25671151

[Phaded]

"Potential" is a funny thing.
I still remember when the NFL scouting reported listed Laquon Treadwell's player comparison as DeAndre Hopkins..

Everything in the eye of the beholder, I guess.
I have not modified my stance on Harry, for the record.

[Sriracha]

Dominator and breakout age are elite, but the tape doesn't show an explosive athlete. I don't get the hype as 1.01 and think he's a bust.

His YAC definitely shows his explosive athleticism.

Sure, there's a lot of tape on him where he doesn't separate from the defenders... there's also a lot of tape on him where he does.

People don't understand how varied Harry's route tree was. He was excellent running some of them (the double move, in breaking routes), and was really bad at others (out-breaking routes) and is pretty bad vs the press (which is entirely a technique issue which is correctable).

To hammer this point home, at one point Harry had 9 straight catches (across two games) all from a different route with 5 different starting positions. Most college WRs have a very limited route tree, we shouldn't knock Harry just because he ran routes he wasn't proficient at; if anything that versatility is a plus.

So he's definitely not the most polished receiver in this rookie class... but is his ceiling really freaking high? Based on his production metrics, I'd say yes. Those damning him because of certain flaws that are apparent on film are overthinking things. His strengths are elite, and can't be taught. His flaws are correctable.