The Real Offseason Sleeper
The Real Offseason Sleeper
Everyone wants to get ahead of the next big sleeper -- UDFAs like Wes Welker, Doug Baldwin, Adrian Foster, Adam Thielen and Antonio Gates were all dominant fantasy options and 100% free at one point in their respective careers. And that's a short list. Does this post guarantee that kind of success? Lord no. Will it point to a completely free prospect who has a chance to produce in 2019 and beyond? Yessir
Ladies and gents, I implore you to head to your local family waiver wire* and pick up Jake Kumerow, WR for the Green Bay Packers.
Kumerow's not a sexy sleeper pick. Last season was is fourth in the NFL, and he hasn't done much as of yet. He's buried on a depth chart behind Davante Adams and three guys the team spent draft capital on last year, and he's a 27-year-old white guy playing wideout. Rookie UDFAs like Karan Higdon, Elijah Holyfield, Bruce Anderson and James Williams are getting all the buzz, and not undeservingly so -- I want the next Phillip Lindsey as much as the next guy. This presents an opportunity to buy Kumerow for essentially nothing.
Kumerow boasts impressive size (6'4, 209 lbs) but his 4.58 40-yard dash time in college left a good bit to be desired. He made up for that a bit with a great dominate rating (40.7%), YPR (17.1) and a 77/1331/19 senior statline, but so far removed from his college days I don't see much use in focusing on these stats. As mentioned, Kumerow's been around awhile.
Entering the league, Kumerow faced struggles that many small school prospects are familiar with. Coming out of Division 3 he spent a few years on the practice squads of the Patriots and Bengals before landing in Wisconsin, again on a practice squad, towards the end of the 2017 season. In 2018 the UW-Whitewater alum finally made some noise by crafting strong chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, to the point of Rodgers mentioning his confidence in Kumerow unprompted in multiple interviews. In GB's first preseason game he hauled in a 52-yard TD pass and Rodgers -- on the sideline of course -- could be seen cheering excitedly with a huge grin on his face. He caught another touchdown that preseason, an 82-yard bomb which he converted due to a spectacular goal-line dive, injuring his shoulder and landing on IR. It was kind of a bummer.
He would play 136 snaps when he was finally activated for the final four games of the season (including 83.9% of offensive snaps Week 17), by which time the Packers were well out of playoff contention and focused on scouting the guys on their roster. Across those snaps he caught 8/11 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown -- which came in the form of a 49-yarder from Rodgers to beat out versus the Jets in overtime, Dec. 23. Rodgers had a 132.0 QB rating targeting Kumerow, but it was a damn small sample size. Too small to extrapolate anything meaningful other than that Kumerow and Rodgers have exceptional chemistry, and that Kumerow is capable of playing at the NFL level (notable because those four games were the first of his career). The Packers didn’t add anything substantial to their wideout corps in the draft or free agency.
Of course, a Thielen-esque breakout season isn't likely to be in the cards. The Packers have a crowded WR depth chart behind Adams (Kumerow will be competing neck-in-neck with ESB, Valdes-Scantling and J'Mon Moore this offseason, and likely well into the season), and are a strong candidate to spread the ball around enough to lack a meaningful WR2 for fantasy purposes. A reasonable ceiling to expect for Kumerow this season is likely as a go-to red zone weapon alongside Adams and Jimmy Graham, which could be quite notable if you're like me and project Rodgers to pass for somewhere in the area of 40 TDs. His chemistry with Rodgers could lend him to more regular use, but there's a fair high chance he doesn't work out as even a bye-week play.
But this is dynasty, and Kumerow is attached to Aaron Rodgers. The chance that his chemistry with Rodgers continues to grow should also be considered, and that the Kumerow’s narrative could continue into a UDFA success story similar to all those guys named in the beginning of the article. And even the No. 3 WR in a Rodgers-led offense will certainly carry fantasy value. If Kumerow can stay healthy – which will be key above all else – I expect him to be a hot commodity this time next year.
Oh, and I dare not forget to mention that he’s spending the offseason working out with his cousins Joey and Nick to physically prepare for the season. They share the last name Bosa.
*If he's rostered, you may have to part with a 2020 4th.
Ladies and gents, I implore you to head to your local family waiver wire* and pick up Jake Kumerow, WR for the Green Bay Packers.
Kumerow's not a sexy sleeper pick. Last season was is fourth in the NFL, and he hasn't done much as of yet. He's buried on a depth chart behind Davante Adams and three guys the team spent draft capital on last year, and he's a 27-year-old white guy playing wideout. Rookie UDFAs like Karan Higdon, Elijah Holyfield, Bruce Anderson and James Williams are getting all the buzz, and not undeservingly so -- I want the next Phillip Lindsey as much as the next guy. This presents an opportunity to buy Kumerow for essentially nothing.
Kumerow boasts impressive size (6'4, 209 lbs) but his 4.58 40-yard dash time in college left a good bit to be desired. He made up for that a bit with a great dominate rating (40.7%), YPR (17.1) and a 77/1331/19 senior statline, but so far removed from his college days I don't see much use in focusing on these stats. As mentioned, Kumerow's been around awhile.
Entering the league, Kumerow faced struggles that many small school prospects are familiar with. Coming out of Division 3 he spent a few years on the practice squads of the Patriots and Bengals before landing in Wisconsin, again on a practice squad, towards the end of the 2017 season. In 2018 the UW-Whitewater alum finally made some noise by crafting strong chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, to the point of Rodgers mentioning his confidence in Kumerow unprompted in multiple interviews. In GB's first preseason game he hauled in a 52-yard TD pass and Rodgers -- on the sideline of course -- could be seen cheering excitedly with a huge grin on his face. He caught another touchdown that preseason, an 82-yard bomb which he converted due to a spectacular goal-line dive, injuring his shoulder and landing on IR. It was kind of a bummer.
He would play 136 snaps when he was finally activated for the final four games of the season (including 83.9% of offensive snaps Week 17), by which time the Packers were well out of playoff contention and focused on scouting the guys on their roster. Across those snaps he caught 8/11 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown -- which came in the form of a 49-yarder from Rodgers to beat out versus the Jets in overtime, Dec. 23. Rodgers had a 132.0 QB rating targeting Kumerow, but it was a damn small sample size. Too small to extrapolate anything meaningful other than that Kumerow and Rodgers have exceptional chemistry, and that Kumerow is capable of playing at the NFL level (notable because those four games were the first of his career). The Packers didn’t add anything substantial to their wideout corps in the draft or free agency.
Of course, a Thielen-esque breakout season isn't likely to be in the cards. The Packers have a crowded WR depth chart behind Adams (Kumerow will be competing neck-in-neck with ESB, Valdes-Scantling and J'Mon Moore this offseason, and likely well into the season), and are a strong candidate to spread the ball around enough to lack a meaningful WR2 for fantasy purposes. A reasonable ceiling to expect for Kumerow this season is likely as a go-to red zone weapon alongside Adams and Jimmy Graham, which could be quite notable if you're like me and project Rodgers to pass for somewhere in the area of 40 TDs. His chemistry with Rodgers could lend him to more regular use, but there's a fair high chance he doesn't work out as even a bye-week play.
But this is dynasty, and Kumerow is attached to Aaron Rodgers. The chance that his chemistry with Rodgers continues to grow should also be considered, and that the Kumerow’s narrative could continue into a UDFA success story similar to all those guys named in the beginning of the article. And even the No. 3 WR in a Rodgers-led offense will certainly carry fantasy value. If Kumerow can stay healthy – which will be key above all else – I expect him to be a hot commodity this time next year.
Oh, and I dare not forget to mention that he’s spending the offseason working out with his cousins Joey and Nick to physically prepare for the season. They share the last name Bosa.
*If he's rostered, you may have to part with a 2020 4th.
12-team SF, PPR, TE premium, 0.25 PPCarry
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Mahomes, Fields, Love
RB: Bijan, ETN, Pollard, Achane, Herbert
WR: Kupp, Hill, Metcalf, Ridley, Jeudy, D.J. M, Burks, Hollywood, Wan'Dale
TE: Kyle Pitts, Goedert
- Johnny Canuck
- All Pro
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Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
Solid write up BB. Not sure I have the space to roster Kumerow, but you've convinced me to keep an eye out for him this yr. Didn't realize him and the Bosas' were related - good bloodlines.
Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
Nice post.
I already own him in my deep leagues so I hope you are right.
There is certainly a chance as WR is wide open.
I already own him in my deep leagues so I hope you are right.
There is certainly a chance as WR is wide open.
- lukkynumber13
- GOAT
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Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
He’s first cousins with the Bosas??
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, J Daniels, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/G WILSON/D ADAMS/DK, Pittman, Flowers, Evans, Pearsoll
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/COUSINS, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
LAPORTA/KELCE/KITTLE
/
TEAM C - 32T (2 copy), 1QB, TEP
TUA, J Daniels
KAMARA, J Brooks, Monty, Mattison
JJ/DK/GODWIN/K ALLEN, Kirk, J Meyers, Polk, Wandale
KITTLE, Goedert, Higbee
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE, Pollard
CHASE/G WILSON/AIYUK/DJM, Nabers, Pittman, Diggs, Polk
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/BREECE, Pollard
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert
/
TEAM F - 12T, SF & TEP
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA
HERBERT, J Daniels, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/G WILSON/D ADAMS/DK, Pittman, Flowers, Evans, Pearsoll
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/COUSINS, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
LAPORTA/KELCE/KITTLE
/
TEAM C - 32T (2 copy), 1QB, TEP
TUA, J Daniels
KAMARA, J Brooks, Monty, Mattison
JJ/DK/GODWIN/K ALLEN, Kirk, J Meyers, Polk, Wandale
KITTLE, Goedert, Higbee
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE, Pollard
CHASE/G WILSON/AIYUK/DJM, Nabers, Pittman, Diggs, Polk
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/BREECE, Pollard
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert
/
TEAM F - 12T, SF & TEP
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA
Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
Yep, and son of a former first-rounder. So he checks the "NFL family pedigree" box as well.
And his great-grandpa was a Chicago mob boss: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Accardo
Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
I am in a league where my trade bait reads:
To protect owners from themselves I will AUTO-REJECT any trade offers sent that are higher than:
Gore AND/OR Kumerov - 2019 / 20 4th
I repeat - do NOT send an offer higher than a 4th for Gore AND/or Kumerov or they will get rejected
---
Lets see if this thread helps the # of offers I have had to reject.
To protect owners from themselves I will AUTO-REJECT any trade offers sent that are higher than:
Gore AND/OR Kumerov - 2019 / 20 4th
I repeat - do NOT send an offer higher than a 4th for Gore AND/or Kumerov or they will get rejected
---
Lets see if this thread helps the # of offers I have had to reject.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..
-
- Legend
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Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
His breakout age is a bit higher than I’d like, but Green Bay is really a place where all you need to do is move up the depth chart to attain relevancy. Adams is for real, but MVS, ESB & Moore still have a lot to prove and Allison isn’t by any means entrenched with an all new coaching staff.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)
QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker
QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker
- DynastyDeepDive
- Starter
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Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
Opportunity for sure but I have my doubts. He's 27 and has never really played after bouncing around the league.
In too many leagues to list players. Check out my Dynasty Deep Dive!
Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
It will be interesting to see if Kumerow can follow Thielen.
Thielen had 2 years of simmering before his unexpected breakout in 2016.
Lets say that 2017 where he bounced around was Year I, and 2018 was year II - then theoretically this could be the year that he breaks out like Thielen was able to - and as mentioned by the OP the depth chart is not that deep or scary after Davante Adams - remember Thielen had to outperform a 1st round pedigree WR in Treadwelll just to earn full starting role - so it is potentially feasible.
Should anyone be laying 100% bets on this no - but it is not any worse of a 1-5% bet than any of the 4th round rookies, or struggling or injury delayed sophmores like Deon Cain, DJ Chark, Trey Quinn or Daesan Hamilton or 3rd/4th year guys yet to do anything significant like Darboh, Switzwer and so on.
Thielen had 2 years of simmering before his unexpected breakout in 2016.
Lets say that 2017 where he bounced around was Year I, and 2018 was year II - then theoretically this could be the year that he breaks out like Thielen was able to - and as mentioned by the OP the depth chart is not that deep or scary after Davante Adams - remember Thielen had to outperform a 1st round pedigree WR in Treadwelll just to earn full starting role - so it is potentially feasible.
Should anyone be laying 100% bets on this no - but it is not any worse of a 1-5% bet than any of the 4th round rookies, or struggling or injury delayed sophmores like Deon Cain, DJ Chark, Trey Quinn or Daesan Hamilton or 3rd/4th year guys yet to do anything significant like Darboh, Switzwer and so on.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..
Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
Agreed that Kumerow's breakout age isn't ideal (21.6). It's one part of the reason he's under the radar. One comp is Victor Cruz at 21.8. If we're talking NFL breakout age, that's in part a product of being an UDFA. Wes Welker's breakout season came at 26, as did Adam Thielen's. Cruz was 25 when he topped 1500 yards, having appeared in three games without a single reception the previous season.
The biggest issue to watch this offseason will be opportunity. Because Kumerow can't operate as a return man, he'll have to beat out one of Valdez-Scantling, ESB or J'mon Moore. I think he'll beat out Moore and share WR4 snaps with ESB, while Valdez-Scantling lines up as the No. 3 guy -- at least to start the season. It says a lot to me about all of these guys that the Packers didn't add to their WR corps this offseason, on paper it's not an awe inspiring group.
The biggest issue to watch this offseason will be opportunity. Because Kumerow can't operate as a return man, he'll have to beat out one of Valdez-Scantling, ESB or J'mon Moore. I think he'll beat out Moore and share WR4 snaps with ESB, while Valdez-Scantling lines up as the No. 3 guy -- at least to start the season. It says a lot to me about all of these guys that the Packers didn't add to their WR corps this offseason, on paper it's not an awe inspiring group.
Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
Great support and post overall.
I have been on the Kumerow bandwagon since his breakout last preseason. It is a matter of chemistry and a guy finally putting it together after jumping around practice squads most of his career. He should be in the rotation all year long and I anticipate a big year as well.
I have been on the Kumerow bandwagon since his breakout last preseason. It is a matter of chemistry and a guy finally putting it together after jumping around practice squads most of his career. He should be in the rotation all year long and I anticipate a big year as well.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Taysom Hill, Isaiah Likely
K:
D: Dallas D
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Taysom Hill, Isaiah Likely
K:
D: Dallas D
Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
https://fox11online.com/sports/packers- ... fense-16-7
MVP in Softball as well.
On a more serious note - pretty nice that the Packers have carried this tradition for so long.
MVP in Softball as well.
On a more serious note - pretty nice that the Packers have carried this tradition for so long.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..
- FantasyFreak
- GOAT
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Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
I don't see it happening.
Janiel Dones Truther
Foodie. Well done steak goes in the trash.
Habaneros make the best tasting hot sauce. Throwing a bunch of random stuff on top of fries doesn't mean you call it "poutine".
Foodie. Well done steak goes in the trash.
Habaneros make the best tasting hot sauce. Throwing a bunch of random stuff on top of fries doesn't mean you call it "poutine".
Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
The Packers have so many interesting receivers on that team. I don't see how he climbs above the more athletic options unless they have some serious issues building chemistry with Rodgers. I thought I had scored a real sleeper last year when I started adding him in all my leagues. I also thought that with Dissly, meanwhile I passed on Kittle.
12 team ppr 4 point pass td
Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots
14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%
Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle
12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr
Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample
20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard
Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver
Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots
14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%
Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle
12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr
Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample
20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard
Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver
Re: The Real Offseason Sleeper
The real off season sleeper is Royce Freeman. Been sayin it for months.
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