2019 Running Back Report

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
IR1
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby IR1 » Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:18 pm

My understanding of these reports is not so much you’ll hit on a pick but more that you’ll avoid a miss. Focus more on who not to draft vs who to draft?
10Team PPR-QB/RB/WR/WR/TE/PK/flex-DT/DE/DE/LB/LB/LB/CB/CB/S/S/flex
Wilson, Cousins, Winston/ Kamara, Chubb, Mixon, Guice/Hopkins, Evans, Allen, CDavis, Harry, Godwin, JJAW/ Kelce, Howard, Fant/ PK
Buckner, Simmons, Hurst, Tillery/JBosa, Hunter, Dunlap, Barnett, Ingram / D Jones Warner, Mack, E Kendricks, DLeonard, REvans, TSmith/Moore, Peters, Jenkins/ Byard, HSmith, Peppers, Amos IR Williams, Guice
12 team SF QB/RB/WR/TE/ 3flex/1SF
Wentz, Cousins, Lock, Bridgewater, Minshew/ KJohnson, Michel, Sanders, Hill, Walton/ Allen, Lockett, AJ Brown, JJAW, Meyers, DJax, AMiller, Sheppard, MJones, Kirk, Treadwell, KCole/ Ertz, Fant, Hurst

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:18 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 6:45 pm
ericanadian wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 6:25 pm

It’s hard to tell if the model would’ve eliminated Trent Richardson, because he didn’t run any agility drills, which I think are a factor in the model. Maybe had he run them, there would’ve been a red flag we all would’ve seen.

In any case, the model’s big claim to fame was identifying David Johnson and I think it’s too early to say whether or not it’s been effective on most of the other running backs that have come out since he started doing these.
Think of it like this, instead of asking how pregnant a woman is, rather ask, can a woman be just a little bit pregnant?
I have no idea what this means
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1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
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2017 Champion
2018 Champion

QB: Brissett, Rudolph, Ben
RB: Gurley, Kamara, Sanders
WR: Julio, OBJ, Keenan
TE: Kelce, Kittle

2020: 1, 2, 2

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:25 pm

IR1 wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:18 pm
My understanding of these reports is not so much you’ll hit on a pick but more that you’ll avoid a miss. Focus more on who not to draft vs who to draft?
I agree, and that’s what makes not disclosing how the model somehow identified T-Rich’s short career even more concerning.
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby moishetreats » Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:43 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:54 pm
moishetreats wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:32 am
@Dynasty DeLorean: PLEASE publicly correct if I'm way off or off in a small way. And thank you, thank you, thank you again for sharing your thoughts AND for so fastidiously replying to all the questions, comments, and critiques.

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My understanding of this report is that it is looking for correlative indicators to success. By entering many points of concrete data (e.g., height, weight, draft slot, etc.) and then by determining what "success" means (e.g., 1,000 yards rushing), you can being to identify which data correlates to success.

I think that many people on this thread are confusing correlation with causation. Just because a player's data does or not fit the successful profile (i.e., correlate) does NOT mean that that player will or will not succeed (i.e., causation). DD's report isn't telling you that Player X will be successful and that Player Y will not be successful. Rather, DD's report is telling you that Player X's concrete data gives him a high, middle, or low likelihood of success based on the how other players with similar metrics ultimately performed.

Note that this kind of data analysis does not answer "why" questions. Why did Player X over-perform or under-perform? Why does Data Point A correlate to predicting success but not Data Point B? How do new schemes and play-calling affect metrics? These are not the questions that DD's report will answer. He's using a data-based approach to predict which RBs profile as more or less likely to succeed.

Indeed, one strength of this model is the ability for correlative indicators to change with more data. That's a good thing!! If there is the occasional outlier, then the correlative indicators won't be affected in anything more than a minimal way. But, if when there are numerous outliers and/or some players that entirely break the model, then the correlative indicators for success would change. Again, that's a good thing: the correlative indicators change because there is now more data to confirm or potentially reject the previous correlative assumptions. That makes the newly-updated correlative indicators MORE reliable!

For those who look at tape, schemes, coaching fit, etc. (i.e., subjective analysis), DD's report is likely not going to be your starting place or even necessarily something on which you would rely heavily. For those who look to survey methodology and data (i.e., concrete information), this is gold.

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@DD: Is this close, far off? Helpful, in your estimation, or just confusing people even more? My hope is the former!! And thank you again for your contributions!!


I started off trying to see if anything correlated with success. Most things didn't, but I did indeed find a few things that did. I think what I stumbled upon that maybe nobody else really thought of is that you can't make one big blanket statement. So for example (and i'm not saying I do this exactly, it's just an example), instead of saying "agility is important", you could ask is agility as important for a bigger back as it is a smaller back. Another example, if you have good speed do you need good agility. What about the inverse, if you have good agility do you need good speed. I don't think many people have asked these types of questions before and it's why I don't believe there's been anything like what I do out there.

As for if this would have worked in the past or will it work in the future. I have my doubts that 30-40 years ago this same exact model would have worked. These days everything is much more standardized, we have a lot more data, nutrition is better, workouts and strength and condition are optimized, from a teams perspective scouting and data analysis is better and there's more of an emphasis on efficiency and maybe to some extent the passing game. Scouts have a lot more access to smaller school players now than they did before. Years ago, there was a bigger emphasis on the running game and "Lesser" rb's were probably getting more work then than they would now. I know I looked back at a few rb's that had long careers and their YPC was in the toilet, and I wonder how long they would have lasted in today's game. If we fastforward into the future, let's say teams decide to go from a 50/50 or 40/60 run pass split to a 30/70 or 20/80 run pass split. The 1k threshold probably would be largely irrelevant. Will new rules be introduced to the game that affect the run game, who knows. So idk how long this will last. Does it work right now? Yeah i'm pretty convinced it does because it's so simple and so effective and it's been the same for a long stretch of years (15 or so, whatever I have data for). Is it possible it's just a giant fluke coincidence? Possible but unlikely imo.

Again I really want to say that i'm not wildly changing things on a yearly basis. The lists have not really changed over the years. I would say as I gather more data i'm able to simplify things rather than complicate or change it more. I think there is a distinct difference. I'm sure there will be outliers here and there, and disappointments. Ideally the studs list has 3+ 1k yard seasons, so guys like Ryan Mathews and DMC were kind of disappointments already. I'm sure there will be more. I don't know about the thing you're saying about numerous outliers and then I change everything, I think that would sort of be impossible.

If we look at the "studs" and "semi studs" (which is essentially the main part of the report) the model predicted since it's inception (2015), pre-2018 every player on that list with the exception of Foreman (who had the injury of course) has at least 1 1k yard season under their belt. I'd say that is a good indication that it's working as intended. Only time will tell if it continues on that course or not.
Thank you for the follow-up, explanations, and clarifications!
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10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex

QB: Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz, Brissett, Daniel
RB: Gurley, Gordon, Mixon, Breida, M Brown, Armstead, Edwards
WR: Hill, Cooper, Hilton, Edelman, Anderson, Meyers, Slayton, Lazard, Pascal
TE: Kelce, Henry, Herndon, Goedert, J Smith, Ellison

2020: 3rd, 4thx2, 5thx3
2021: 2ndx2, 3rd, 5thx2



12 tms 22 plyrs {IR} [Taxi]. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex/ best ball

QB: Brees ($34 through 2020), Winston (2/19), Garappolo (5/20), Brissett (1/21)
RB: Barkley (38/22) Conner (4/19), A Jones (10/19), Mixon (30/20), Lindsay (11/21) {R Anderson (3/21)}, [Dex Williams (4/23), Barnes (1/23), Higdon (1/23), Gaskins (1/23)]
WR: Smith-Schuster, (19/19), Cooper, ($28/20), Allen (29/21), R Anderson (3/21), Ginn (1/19), Meyers (1/21), Gabriel (1/19), Gage (1/19), Hall (1/19) {Patrick (1/19)}
TE: Ertz (22/21), Goedert (8/22), Cook (1/19), Doyle (1/19)
Total+dead cap hits $299

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Lord_Varys » Sat Jun 08, 2019 4:24 pm

I gotta admit... As a stats guy I was really pulled into this... But now I need the curtains pulled back on Richardson and Williams. If I had a formula to predict studs or busts, I would be happy to share that formula, or at least it's factors.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:02 pm

Lord_Varys wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2019 4:24 pm
I gotta admit... As a stats guy I was really pulled into this... But now I need the curtains pulled back on Richardson and Williams. If I had a formula to predict studs or busts, I would be happy to share that formula, or at least it's factors.
DWill doesn’t make it because breakout age is factored in, although in general I have been mulling over whether to eliminate that or not because as the years have gone by I’ve noticed it appears less and less useful. I guess I just never really gave much thought towards DWill since his career is over. He has 2 1k yard seasons which is normal for on the list or off so I guess I just never gave him the scrutiny he deserved. But I will look that over tonight. Trich just flat out doesn’t make it.

edit: Alright I went back and checked and for now I will continue to use breakout age as a factor. Sorry DWill :(. I will continue to think about it though. It doesn't affect any current players if anyone is wondering.

edit edit: Now that i'm looking at it some more, I feel like his breakout age on playerprofiler might be wrong. Will need to do some investigative work here...

edit edit edit: Yeah, it has to be.. On playerprofiler it's listed as 22.3 but during his age 20 season he put up 1400 rushing yards and 10 tds paired with 35 receptions 300 yards and 3 tds. There's no way 22.3 can be right, right?
For tight ends and running backs, a 15% Dominator Rating is necessary to qualify for a breakout designation.
His final year he had a 47% dominator rating. He did have more yards and td's but not triple the amount. 1964 yards, 18 tds. 12 receptions, 78 yards, 1 td.

Another edit: Hmm I see the passing dropped off from about 260 yards and 2 tds per game in 2003 to like 130 yards and 1 td per game in 2005. I wonder if that had anything to do with it. I don't know how to calculate it so maybe someone else can figure this out.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Lord_Varys » Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:48 am

Dunno anything about player profiler...

What's the reason for Richardson?

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:16 am

Lord_Varys wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:48 am
Dunno anything about player profiler...

What's the reason for Richardson?
That’s kind of the problem- two really disparate prospects projected for the same very specific outcome, retrospectively, despite reaching that outcome for different reasons.
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:34 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:16 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:48 am
Dunno anything about player profiler...

What's the reason for Richardson?
That’s kind of the problem- two really disparate prospects projected for the same very specific outcome, retrospectively, despite reaching that outcome for different reasons.
Wrong again. This is what I don’t understand, you don’t know but you insist you know. That seems... weird, doesn’t it? I don't answer your questions because all you've done in this thread is present your incorrect assumptions as fact, which in turn confuses everyone else.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:50 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Lord_Varys » Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:36 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:16 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:48 am
Dunno anything about player profiler...

What's the reason for Richardson?
That’s kind of the problem- two really disparate prospects projected for the same very specific outcome, retrospectively, despite reaching that outcome for different reasons.
I don't have a problem with that.

He could have breakout age as a factor that brings Williams down. Then he could have elusiveness (or whatever the mystery factor is) that brings Richardson down. Both find their way into tier 4, but for different reasons.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:11 am

Lord_Varys wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:36 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:16 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:48 am
Dunno anything about player profiler...

What's the reason for Richardson?
That’s kind of the problem- two really disparate prospects projected for the same very specific outcome, retrospectively, despite reaching that outcome for different reasons.
I don't have a problem with that.

He could have breakout age as a factor that brings Williams down. Then he could have elusiveness (or whatever the mystery factor is) that brings Richardson down. Both find their way into tier 4, but for different reasons.
Sure! But then how do you arrive at exactly 5 prospects in that one tier since 2008, all of whom fit pretty well? Again, this is at best just bad statistical analysis, at worst some sketchy “trust me, I have a formula” stuff. I’d lean toward the former.
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby ericanadian » Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:20 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:11 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:36 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:16 am


That’s kind of the problem- two really disparate prospects projected for the same very specific outcome, retrospectively, despite reaching that outcome for different reasons.
I don't have a problem with that.

He could have breakout age as a factor that brings Williams down. Then he could have elusiveness (or whatever the mystery factor is) that brings Richardson down. Both find their way into tier 4, but for different reasons.
Sure! But then how do you arrive at exactly 5 prospects in that one tier since 2008, all of whom fit pretty well? Again, this is at best just bad statistical analysis, at worst some sketchy “trust me, I have a formula” stuff. I’d lean toward the former.
Okay, but there actually was a formula laid out in the original version of this. I’m pretty sure he’s since deleted it, but for many of us that saw the original version, this isn’t what you claim as we’ve seen the formula. He’s since made some changes, but the core mechanics must be similar because the results are also very similar.
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RB - Gordon, Cook, Penny, Guice, Harris
WR - Julio, C. Davis, Watkins, Samuel, Lee, Washington, Di. Johnson
TE - Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, R. Smith
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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:39 pm

Ok I emailed Matt Kelley and he says they’ll look into dwills breakout age, although it’s probably pretty low on their list of priorities so I won’t hold my breathe. The breakout year listed is 2005 and there can’t possibly be any way that is correct as he rushed for nearly 2k yards in 2004. For the people wondering why there are changes sometimes, faulty data is a big reason why. Unfortunately nobody reliably kept track of all this stuff until recently.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:13 pm

Matt Kelley actually came through and fixed his breakout age, which in turn puts DWill on the "studs" list. What an interesting turn of events.

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Re: 2019 Running Back Report

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:39 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:13 pm
Matt Kelley actually came through and fixed his breakout age, which in turn puts DWill on the "studs" list. What an interesting turn of events.
I think I just heard someone pull their hair out
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck (IR)
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ballage, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, D.J. Moore, Cooks, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Parris, Hamilton, Preston (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant
2020: 1, 2, 3, 4, 4

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam (IR)
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Penny, Hunt, J. Samuels, J. Jackson
WR: D.J. Moore, Mike Will, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Deebo, Diontae, KeeSean, AB, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki
2020: 1, 2, 2
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3


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