Chris Godwin Heat Check

[The Grudge]

My prediction for godwin this year.

205 catches
2767 yards
32 recieving TD
5 rushing TD
1 passing TD

No kick return or punt return TD? Or is that just getting greedy?

[Mephistopheles]

My prediction for godwin this year.

205 catches
2767 yards
32 recieving TD
5 rushing TD
1 passing TD

Wow that's light. I may need to send out some offers.

[CGW]

My prediction for godwin this year.

205 catches
2767 yards
32 recieving TD
5 rushing TD
1 passing TD

That YPC worries me.

[Cult of Dionysus]

75 catches
1150 yards
9 TDs

[Pew Dogs]

I know that this will come across as silly, but I know someone (my best friend’s son) who volunteered at TB’s training camp for a few years who shared with me that he heard the coaches talking among themselves that they thought Godwin would eventually pass Evans as the #1. Him I believe. Whether those coaches are still there I don’t know. What I do know is that I bought where I could.

[IBall2]

I know that this will come across as silly, but I know someone (my best friend’s son) who volunteered at TB’s training camp for a few years who shared with me that he heard the coaches talking among themselves that they thought Godwin would eventually pass Evans as the #1. Him I believe. Whether those coaches are still there I don’t know. What I do know is that I bought where I could.

Now that's the kind of hype I like to hear!

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

75 catches
1150 yards
9 TDs

this looks about right. i'd be hoping for more though.

[FantasyFreak]

75 catches
1150 yards
9 TDs

this looks about right. i'd be hoping for more though.

I'd be more than content with that.

[Blueboy]

I know that this will come across as silly, but I know someone (my best friend’s son) who volunteered at TB’s training camp for a few years who shared with me that he heard the coaches talking among themselves that they thought Godwin would eventually pass Evans as the #1. Him I believe. Whether those coaches are still there I don’t know. What I do know is that I bought where I could.

Yeah well my dad works at Nintendo

[kmbryant09]

As someone who might be acquiring Godwin, I figured I'd do some research on his situation and how it could help forecast his 2019 potential breakout.

What I found most interesting was his similarities (both as a player and the team) to JuJu Smith-Schuster and the Pittsburgh offense from 2 years ago - check out the comparison between the 2017 Steelers and 2018 Bucs, and the corresponding seasons between JuJu & Godwin:

2017 Steelers: 383 - 589 (65.0%) / 4,490 yards / 29 TDs / 15 INTs
2018 Tampa: 408 - 625 (65.3%) / 5,350 yards / 36 TDs / 26 (!) INTs

2017 JuJu: 58 catches / 917 yards / 15.8ypc / 7 TDs
2018 Godwin: 59 catches / 842 yards / 14.3ypc / 7 TDs

2017 Steelers went on to lose 190 primary targets that season (106 from Bell & 84 from Bryant), opening up more of an opportunity for JuJu that helped lead to his breakout 2018 season.

2018 Tampa are losing 180 primary targets this season (105 from Humphries & 74 from D-Jax), potentially opening up more of an opportunity for Godwin and his potential breakout 2019 season.

I don't think Godwin is quite as talented as JuJu is as a player and I don't think it's fair to expect a breakout to the same degree that JuJu just experienced. But Evans can still be the #1 alpha WR, and Godwin can finish as a high-end WR #2 or even low-end WR #1 - both of those things can be true. Just based on that offense, the situation, competition for targets, and likely game script all season, I think it's very possible that Godwin sees 130 targets, and based on last year's efficiency measures, he would parlay those targets into 80 / 1,150 / 9, good enough for 213 .5PPR points, which translates to the WR 11 - 13 range based on last year.

[Lord_Varys]

^^ The goods ^^

Except Godwin's just as talented as JuJu IMO.

[Jigga94]

^^ The goods ^^

Except Godwin's just as talented as JuJu IMO.

Heat check...

[Lord_Varys]

^^ The goods ^^

Except Godwin's just as talented as JuJu IMO.

Heat check...

Lol. I just think JuJu's gotten the opportunity a little earlier than Godwin has. I see them both make really great plays.

[Jfever]

^^ The goods ^^

Except Godwin's just as talented as JuJu IMO.

Not to mention that TB is not Pitt. Winston is not Big Ben. Some incredibly wishful thinking here. It isn't a bad thing if Godwin is a mid to high end wr2 people. The assumption that he passes Evens is beyond silly at this moment in time.

[kmbryant09]

^^ The goods ^^

Except Godwin's just as talented as JuJu IMO.

Not to mention that TB is not Pitt. Winston is not Big Ben. Some incredibly wishful thinking here. It isn't a bad thing if Godwin is a mid to high end wr2 people. The assumption that he passes Evens is beyond silly at this moment in time.

Nowhere in my post did I suggest that Winston is Ben and that Godwin is JuJu. The only *extrapolating* that I did was based on Godwin's numbers last year on a hypothetical increase in # of targets, catching passes from.....Winston & Fitzpatrick.

Also, I directly stated that Evans could still be the #1 alpha WR and Godwin could still finish as a high-end WR #2 - both of those things can be true.