Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Friction » Fri May 24, 2019 3:49 pm

Roman is the OC there now? He did alright at Buffalo, but he was all about running the ball if I recall correctly. Now, that is of course a product of what you are working with, but he was OC at San Fran, too, when they ran the ball a ton. Right? Would make sense to bring him in with Lamar then, but that could be a detriment to the passing game.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Fri May 24, 2019 4:00 pm

On the flip side - he is 22.
Plenty of time to turn it around.
A lot of QBs aren't even good until their mid 20s.

Or maybe he will be more runner than passer for his whole career.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri May 24, 2019 4:19 pm

Friction wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 3:49 pm
Roman is the OC there now? He did alright at Buffalo, but he was all about running the ball if I recall correctly. Now, that is of course a product of what you are working with, but he was OC at San Fran, too, when they ran the ball a ton. Right? Would make sense to bring him in with Lamar then, but that could be a detriment to the passing game.
Lamar is a detriment to the passing game. :D Sorry, I couldn't resist.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Blueboy » Fri May 24, 2019 7:42 pm

Phaded wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 4:00 pm
On the flip side - he is 22.
Plenty of time to turn it around.
A lot of QBs aren't even good until their mid 20s.

Or maybe he will be more runner than passer for his whole career.
Yeah, 22 and was expected to take a long time polishing to the pro level -- if he eventually does. He's right where everyone should have expected him to be.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Krypto_King » Fri May 24, 2019 7:46 pm

kmbryant09 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 5:49 am

I think this is the right way to approach it, I'll give a quick shot at my best guess:

475 pass attempts
20% target share

95 targets - 55 catches (58% catch rate) / 875 yards (15.9 ypc) / 6 TDs - 151 points in my .5 PPR league, which would have made him a low-end WR #3 last season. I also think he'll be fairly boom-bust if the above statline holds true, so still not someone that you'd want to consistently rely on.
It's crazy to me that this sounds realistic, would probably lead all rookie WRs, and he's still being talked about as in some sort of awful situation. fwiw I'd be happy with like 40-600-4

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri May 24, 2019 7:56 pm

Krypto_King wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 7:46 pm
kmbryant09 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 5:49 am

I think this is the right way to approach it, I'll give a quick shot at my best guess:

475 pass attempts
20% target share

95 targets - 55 catches (58% catch rate) / 875 yards (15.9 ypc) / 6 TDs - 151 points in my .5 PPR league, which would have made him a low-end WR #3 last season. I also think he'll be fairly boom-bust if the above statline holds true, so still not someone that you'd want to consistently rely on.
It's crazy to me that this sounds realistic, would probably lead all rookie WRs, and he's still being talked about as in some sort of awful situation. fwiw I'd be happy with like 40-600-4
I don't buy any of this personally. I think the bolded is much more realistic. He's also coming off a lisfranc, which is extremely difficult to come back from. I think that posters prediction is overly optimistic. A 20 percent target share for a rookie coming off an injury seems very high, and the attempts seems very optimistic. Last year, Jackson started 7 games, and totalled 158 attempts. Extrapolated over 16 games, that's 361 attempts. To reach 475 attempts that would be an increase of roughly 32 percent.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby ArrylT » Fri May 24, 2019 8:12 pm

The projection I posted a few weeks back is based is a potential ceiling projection for Year 1 rather than an expected floor projection. The floor of any rookie is obviously 0-0-0. ;)
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Hottoddies » Fri May 24, 2019 8:15 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 7:56 pm
Krypto_King wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 7:46 pm
kmbryant09 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 5:49 am

I think this is the right way to approach it, I'll give a quick shot at my best guess:

475 pass attempts
20% target share

95 targets - 55 catches (58% catch rate) / 875 yards (15.9 ypc) / 6 TDs - 151 points in my .5 PPR league, which would have made him a low-end WR #3 last season. I also think he'll be fairly boom-bust if the above statline holds true, so still not someone that you'd want to consistently rely on.
It's crazy to me that this sounds realistic, would probably lead all rookie WRs, and he's still being talked about as in some sort of awful situation. fwiw I'd be happy with like 40-600-4
I don't buy any of this personally. I think the bolded is much more realistic. He's also coming off a lisfranc, which is extremely difficult to come back from. I think that posters prediction is overly optimistic. A 20 percent target share for a rookie coming off an injury seems very high, and the attempts seems very optimistic. Last year, Jackson started 7 games, and totalled 158 attempts. Extrapolated over 16 games, that's 361 attempts. To reach 475 attempts that would be an increase of roughly 32 percent.
I would put the over/under on Jackson's attempts at about 400.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Krypto_King » Wed May 29, 2019 4:21 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 7:56 pm

I don't buy any of this personally. I think the bolded is much more realistic. He's also coming off a lisfranc, which is extremely difficult to come back from. I think that posters prediction is overly optimistic. A 20 percent target share for a rookie coming off an injury seems very high, and the attempts seems very optimistic. Last year, Jackson started 7 games, and totalled 158 attempts. Extrapolated over 16 games, that's 361 attempts. To reach 475 attempts that would be an increase of roughly 32 percent.
Of course it's assuming health. I also wonder if 475 "drop backs," rather than attempts is a reasonable number. It would take work to throw that little of a number over a 16 game season.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby remedy29 » Thu May 30, 2019 4:55 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 7:56 pm

Last year, Jackson started 7 games, and totalled 158 attempts. Extrapolated over 16 games, that's 361 attempts. To reach 475 attempts that would be an increase of roughly 32 percent.
The problem with this analysis, if your only consideration is what happened in 2018, then you have to extrapolate all of it, so let's give;

Baltimore wins 13 or 14 games.
Baltimore is number 1 playoff seed.
Lamar rushes for 1,400 yards.
Lamar is in top 2 in league with rushing.
With these results, Lamar is All Pro and MVP.

As a betting man, I'd want huge odds to bet on any of this happening.


Need to consider that Lamar is in his second year, he was very raw last year, coaching purposely held Lamar back in pass attempts and they got away with it because they were winning, the league was slow in figuring out how to defend Balt, Balt revamped their WR core.

It's much more likely Lamar passes for 475 attempts.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Weknownothing86 » Thu May 30, 2019 2:57 pm

Got him at 1.10 in my rookie draft. Love the value there. Everyone always seems to point out the "possible negatives" on guys instead of the possible positives. Here are the facts, he had awesome college production and has great talent (check mark 1), he has high draft capitol (check mark 2, even though i realize there have been plenty of WR busts who have been drafted highly lately), family ties (check mark 3, this may not matter much but it does matter if you are related to an HOF Wr), he is not challenged by any WR around him and will be the immediate #1 (do we really think Mark Andrews the Te will lead the team in targets?). The people who dont like him arent even really bashing him as a player, they are bashing Lamar. When the QB is your main argument as to why you dont like a guy in dynasty thats a bad argument. I can see this as being part of the argument but not the main reason for the argument of disliking him. Everyone around here says Talent>>>> Situation, doesnt seem to be the case with hollywood, all they are talking about is the situation.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby ArrylT » Thu May 30, 2019 3:08 pm

To be fair - most of the concerns with Brown are not what I consider bashing - although yeah some people really do not believe Lamar Jackson can or will improve - nonetheless I think it is a legit concern, for those that have said concern, to wonder if Lamar Jackson will throw enough in the next couple of years to warrant Marquise Browns early career arc to be positive.

We've seen what the Titans situation has done to Corey Davis. If 2 years from now Marquise Brown is in a similar situation - it may be easier for some owners to buy Brown then, than draft him now. There is also some concern about how his Lisfranc will delay his development and of course the size/weight. Whether or not any of this ends up being an issue we can only wait and see - but I do not think any of those concerns are nonsensical concerns - I dont see much of the "he sucks" argument.

And since a lot of that concern is already baked into his cost - I think that he is being fairly priced at the moment.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Weknownothing86 » Thu May 30, 2019 3:28 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 3:08 pm
To be fair - most of the concerns with Brown are not what I consider bashing - although yeah some people really do not believe Lamar Jackson can or will improve - nonetheless I think it is a legit concern, for those that have said concern, to wonder if Lamar Jackson will throw enough in the next couple of years to warrant Marquise Browns early career arc to be positive.

We've seen what the Titans situation has done to Corey Davis. If 2 years from now Marquise Brown is in a similar situation - it may be easier for some owners to buy Brown then, than draft him now. There is also some concern about how his Lisfranc will delay his development and of course the size/weight. Whether or not any of this ends up being an issue we can only wait and see - but I do not think any of those concerns are nonsensical concerns - I dont see much of the "he sucks" argument.

And since a lot of that concern is already baked into his cost - I think that he is being fairly priced at the moment.
I understand what you are saying and i do think the point about Davis has validity, but this is dynasty and if Lamar does indeed suck he will be gone in two years. They drafted him in the late first, its not the same situation as Mariota who went in the high first, thats a big difference. Lamar will have a shorter leash, especially for a team, coach, and fanbase that has been pretty good over the last decade ++ and expects to win. I just think if Lamar is your main reason for letting Brown drop into the second round of a rookie draft that is a pretty bad reason.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby jordanzs » Thu May 30, 2019 4:33 pm

I'm happy to get him in 2 leagues at 2.3. Both 12 team PPR, start 1QB. One of the leagues even gives 3 bonus points to 40 yard receptions, which I think he'll be good at.

In both of these leagues, I also got N'Keal Harry at 1.3.

And in another one, I snuck in Mecole Hardman at 2.1. I thought about Marquis Brown there, but I own Mahomes & would enjoy the stack, IF hardman hits.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Dynos » Fri May 31, 2019 1:18 pm

2019 Champion!

Team 1: Superflex, Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex WR/TE,1 Sflex

QB: J. Garoppolo,P. Mahomes, Alex Smith, Baker Mayfield
RB: E.Elliott, L.Fournette, Chris Carson,P.Barber, R.Anderson
WR: M. Thomas, A.J Brown, Marquise Brown, T.Lockett, G.Tate, D.Parker, D.Slayton, P.Williams, M.Lee , W.Snead, J.Meyers,
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper, C.Herndon,D.Fells


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