Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

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lanemitchell96
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Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby lanemitchell96 » Wed May 22, 2019 6:33 am

So I came across a CBS write-up on David Montgomery the other day (link below) that he would be hard pressed to pass Mike Davis on the depth chart and said elusiveness is his biggest problem, yet he profiles as one of the most elusive backs in recent memory based on the metrics. Just because he does not have break away speed does not mean he is not elusive.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/p ... montgomery


Also, there are a ton of articles (links below) that describe Montgomery's elusiveness..

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears ... -matt-nagy

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/d ... iowa-state



Here are a few more from this years rookie class:

Haskins is a mobile QB: https://twitter.com/DHeff11/status/1093914775086600192

DK Metcalf has loose hips and makes quick breaks (Strengths): https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dekaylin- ... 746f1b94aa

Will Grier has low throwing velocity (Weaknesses): https://www.nfl.com/prospects/will-grie ... ae73b00f0f



Reading this these made me wonder how many terrible player evaluations are out there. What are some of the ones you have run into?
APEX PREDATORS:
2019 RECORD: 5-2
PPR SF
LINEUP: QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX, SF
QB: Mahomes, Kyler, Baker, Brissett, Finley
RB: CMC, Cook, Kamara, Miles, Monty, Samuels, Pollard
WR: Godwin, Chark, Thielen, Gallup, DJM, Gordon, DJax, SMiller, Parris, Preston, Boykin, Isabella, Ross, Butler
TE: Engram, Herndon, Goedert
2020 PICKS: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 4, 5


LA CHARGERS:
2019 RECORD: 7-2
32 TEAM SINGLE COPY, CONTRACT, 53 MAN ROSTERS, TIERED PPR, TIERED IDP, RETURN YDS
LINEUP: QB, RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX, 2DE, DT, 3LB, 2CB, 2S, K, P

QB: Kyler, Hundley
RB: Royce, JJax, Sproles, Ellington, Ricard, Cunningham, Holyfield
WR: Gordon, Tre'Quan, Patterson, TDavis, DHarris, Isabella, DSpencer, DMitchell, Parris
TE: Moreau, Hollister, RSJ, LThomas
DT: Donald, TCrawford, AlWoods
DE: JoshAllen, Wolfe, Banogu, Ferguson, Jelks
LB: Leonard, Mercilus, Klein, LCarter, Kwiatkoski, LongJr
CB: Ryan, KenFuller, MDavis, SJones
S: KJoseph, Willis, WHarris, Addae, Epps
K: Vinatieri, Castillo
P: Berry
2020 PICKS: 1, 2, 3, 5

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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby killer_of_giants » Wed May 22, 2019 6:42 am

lanemitchell96 wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 6:33 am
Reading this these made me wonder how many terrible player evaluations are out there. What are some of the ones you have run into?
mine, mostly.

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lanemitchell96
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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby lanemitchell96 » Wed May 22, 2019 6:50 am

killer_of_giants wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 6:42 am
lanemitchell96 wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 6:33 am
Reading this these made me wonder how many terrible player evaluations are out there. What are some of the ones you have run into?
mine, mostly.
Haha me too. We're all wrong a ton :lol: . Mostly looking for articles/tweets/scouting reports with glaring errors that show they did not look at any numbers, film, or metrics at all
APEX PREDATORS:
2019 RECORD: 5-2
PPR SF
LINEUP: QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX, SF
QB: Mahomes, Kyler, Baker, Brissett, Finley
RB: CMC, Cook, Kamara, Miles, Monty, Samuels, Pollard
WR: Godwin, Chark, Thielen, Gallup, DJM, Gordon, DJax, SMiller, Parris, Preston, Boykin, Isabella, Ross, Butler
TE: Engram, Herndon, Goedert
2020 PICKS: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 4, 5


LA CHARGERS:
2019 RECORD: 7-2
32 TEAM SINGLE COPY, CONTRACT, 53 MAN ROSTERS, TIERED PPR, TIERED IDP, RETURN YDS
LINEUP: QB, RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX, 2DE, DT, 3LB, 2CB, 2S, K, P

QB: Kyler, Hundley
RB: Royce, JJax, Sproles, Ellington, Ricard, Cunningham, Holyfield
WR: Gordon, Tre'Quan, Patterson, TDavis, DHarris, Isabella, DSpencer, DMitchell, Parris
TE: Moreau, Hollister, RSJ, LThomas
DT: Donald, TCrawford, AlWoods
DE: JoshAllen, Wolfe, Banogu, Ferguson, Jelks
LB: Leonard, Mercilus, Klein, LCarter, Kwiatkoski, LongJr
CB: Ryan, KenFuller, MDavis, SJones
S: KJoseph, Willis, WHarris, Addae, Epps
K: Vinatieri, Castillo
P: Berry
2020 PICKS: 1, 2, 3, 5

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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby Ice » Wed May 22, 2019 11:22 am

It’s really how one reads a scouting report.

DK as an example does have loose hips and is in fact very good out of his breaks on the routes he runs. People read into his 3 cone which is actually quite different than making a cut within a route.

His scouting report is actually pretty accurate. Listing his report as inaccurate is well, inaccurate.

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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed May 22, 2019 11:48 am

It says Davis will be hard to knock out of the running back rotation, not that he will be hard to pass on the depth chart. That means 2 different things. To me he's saying it will be hard to get a Bell Cow type workload as Davis will still be used (as will Cohen).
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 14-4

Wentz, Stafford
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor, D Shepard, Hardy
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas

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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Wed May 22, 2019 12:28 pm

Taking this a step further, I typically echo false assessments of players prior to my drafts in the hopes that it drives certain players to where my picks are at. I can't give examples at this point as my DLF Premuim League draft is coming up in about a week, but

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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby Valhalla » Wed May 22, 2019 1:05 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 12:28 pm
Taking this a step further, I typically echo false assessments of players prior to my drafts in the hopes that it drives certain players to where my picks are at. I can't give examples at this point as my DLF Premuim League draft is coming up in about a week, but
But in posting this...for your league mates to see...are you now lying about being misleading in an attempt to be misleading...? Liars lying about lying...this entire forum is not to be trusted!! :D

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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby Rasorin » Wed May 22, 2019 6:09 pm

Headline today said, “Aaron Rogers Expects to Learn Offense.”
2017 Champion, 2018 Runner-up
10 team ppr
1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1 DEF
QB: Cam, Cousins, Josh Allen
RB: Kamara, Conner, Bell, Hyde, Adams, Yeldon, John Kelly
WR: JuJu, Woods, Lockett, Anderson, Sutton, Pettis, Lee, Foster, MVS, Chark, Baldwin
TE: Njoku, Herndon, McDonald
DEF: rotating
Picks: 2019 3rd, 2020 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd

Rebuild Year 2
12 team ppr
1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1PK, 1 DEF
QB: Trubisky, Murray, Rosen
RB: Jacobs, Carson, Penny, Samuels, Ito Smith, Martin, Mattison
WR: DJ Moore, Miller, Lockett, Pettis, Marquise Brown, Campbell, Samuel, Foster, Chark, Chris Moore, Richardson, Reynolds, Preston Williams
TE: OJH, McDonald, SmithJr, Waller
PK: Rotating
DEF: Rotating
Picks: 2020 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

12 team ppr
1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1PK, 1 DEF
QB: Wentz, Lock
RB: Chubb, Sanders, J-Hill, B-Hill, R-Anderson, Gallman, Smallwood, Prosise, D-Washington, Weber
WR: N’Keal, Marquise Brown,
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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby Ice » Wed May 22, 2019 6:30 pm

Rasorin wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 6:09 pm
Headline today said, “Aaron Rogers Expects to Learn Offense.”
:lol:

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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby ArrylT » Wed May 22, 2019 7:51 pm

I thought he already learned how to get offended according to that article about him being thin-skinned? :eh:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby gameaholica » Thu May 23, 2019 12:43 am

Actually remember reading N'keal Harry would have issues in the NFL getting off the line when getting jammed. Yet see him ranked as the 1.1 here. Not sure if the early evaluations were off, or if this speaks to the talent of this draft.
TheFantasyFootballGuys Dynasty League (10 keeper-Standard)
QB: Mahomes | Trubisky
RB: Barkely | Kamara | Gurley |Guice | Love | |
WR: Beckham | Hopkins | TY Hilton | R. Anderson | Harry|C Davis
TE: OJ Howard | Fells| Burton |
Start: QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-TE-RB/WR/TE-K-DEF

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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Thu May 23, 2019 7:44 am

Ice wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 11:22 am
It’s really how one reads a scouting report.

DK as an example does have loose hips and is in fact very good out of his breaks on the routes he runs. People read into his 3 cone which is actually quite different than making a cut within a route.

His scouting report is actually pretty accurate. Listing his report as inaccurate is well, inaccurate.
This is a great example of why data driven analysis is important. Here we have Socrates arguing over a completely undefined term “loose hips.” It only means whatever the person in question wants it to mean, hence why people can disagree over whether or not a player has “loose hips.” It doesn’t help anybody. I think DK has been under appreciated because of his agility testing, but whether or not some scout thinks he has “loose hips” is completely irrelevant. This whole post is the scouting room scene in Moneyball come to life.

Meanwhile, the idea that N’Keal Harry accounted for over 20% of his team’s receiving production during his age 18 season isn’t as easily disputed and meaningfully correlates with success.
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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Thu May 23, 2019 9:07 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 7:44 am
Ice wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 11:22 am
It’s really how one reads a scouting report.

DK as an example does have loose hips and is in fact very good out of his breaks on the routes he runs. People read into his 3 cone which is actually quite different than making a cut within a route.

His scouting report is actually pretty accurate. Listing his report as inaccurate is well, inaccurate.
This is a great example of why data driven analysis is important. Here we have Socrates arguing over a completely undefined term “loose hips.” It only means whatever the person in question wants it to mean, hence why people can disagree over whether or not a player has “loose hips.” It doesn’t help anybody. I think DK has been under appreciated because of his agility testing, but whether or not some scout thinks he has “loose hips” is completely irrelevant. This whole post is the scouting room scene in Moneyball come to life.

Meanwhile, the idea that N’Keal Harry accounted for over 20% of his team’s receiving production during his age 18 season isn’t as easily disputed and meaningfully correlates with success.

This is why I enjoy these forums.

Ice offers so much information and knowledge that I don't have as far as scouting and years of knowledge. What he looks for and sees are things I don't have time for or even understand.

But having OCR counter those arguements with analytic/metric data is awesome as well. So much information on these forums and I appreciate everyone that contributes, regardless of the way they go about it.
12 man Superflex deep starting requirements with even scoring among positions

11 starters - QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Superflex, Flex, Flex, Flex.

1 PPR, 1 points every 10 yards rushing/receiving, 4 points per 100 passing, 4 point passing TDs, -2 INT.

TE premium 1.5 PPR and 1 point per 8.5 yards receiving.

QB- Jared Goff, Russel Wilson, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, Andrew Luck, RG3, Sean Mannion

RB -Dalvin Cook, Devonta Freeman, Raashad Penny, Dare Ogunbowale

WR - Davante Adams, Mike Evans, JuJu, Keenan Allen, Tyler Boyd, AJG, Antonio Callaway, Damion Willis

TE - Evan Engram, Chris Herndon, Noah Fant, Gerald Everett, Jordan Thomas


2020- 3
2021 -1,3

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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby Weknownothing86 » Thu May 23, 2019 2:40 pm

I really dont think we should say anything is "incorrect" about how a rookie will perform when they are on an NFL field since we havent seen it yet. So unfortunately im not sure i even agree with the premise of this thread. You cant say anything about Montgomery is correct or incorrect yet, and you most definitely cant say that when it comes to subjective tape of a guy since you may see something as good that another person sees as bad. Now what would make this interesting is if we all started fessing up to players we got totally wrong since we all know it happens. I want to start hearing from the people who thought Michael Thomas was gonna suck in this league and their evaluations on him as an example. Ive been wrong on so many people i cant even count, id venture to say most around here are wrong more often than they are right.
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Re: Most Incorrect Player Evaluations / Write-Ups

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu May 23, 2019 2:47 pm

Weknownothing86 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 2:40 pm
I really dont think we should say anything is "incorrect" about how a rookie will perform when they are on an NFL field since we havent seen it yet. So unfortunately im not sure i even agree with the premise of this thread. You cant say anything about Montgomery is correct or incorrect yet, and you most definitely cant say that when it comes to subjective tape of a guy since you may see something as good that another person sees as bad. Now what would make this interesting is if we all started fessing up to players we got totally wrong since we all know it happens. I want to start hearing from the people who thought Michael Thomas was gonna suck in this league and their evaluations on him as an example. Ive been wrong on so many people i cant even count, id venture to say most around here are wrong more often than they are right.
I was wrong on Treadwell. I thought he could overcome his lack of athleticism. Nope.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 14-4

Wentz, Stafford
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor, D Shepard, Hardy
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas


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