Undervalued TEs to target?

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby ArrylT » Tue May 21, 2019 7:10 pm

ericanadian wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:05 pm
Eric Swoope just got worth a look.
We shall see if he can swoope into Oakland and steal the lead TE role. 8-)
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Wed May 22, 2019 7:45 am

ericanadian wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:05 pm
Eric Swoope just got worth a look.
Been hyped up for years and always fails to deliver. I'll let someone else burn $12 FAAB on him.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Bot101 » Wed May 22, 2019 9:34 am

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 7:45 am
ericanadian wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:05 pm
Eric Swoope just got worth a look.
Been hyped up for years and always fails to deliver. I'll let someone else burn $1 FAAB on him.
Fixed :thumbup:
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby DLF3000 » Wed May 22, 2019 9:40 am

With Olsen back, the Thomas hype is fading somewhat so his trade cost might be becoming more reasonable.

I like Thomas, though I'm not sure Cam will still be Cam anymore. Big prove-it year.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Pullo Vision » Thu May 23, 2019 3:55 pm

ericanadian wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 4:26 am
I think people keep looking at the wrong side of this equation though. Howard is an elite receiving weapon, but he is also an elite blocker. If Howard goes deep, who will be staying in to block? It seems like you guys think this is about Arians just not having routes for the TE. It’s not. Arians needs guys to stay back and block for the routes on his deep balls to progress. Generally that’s the TE. It’s possible that he’ll foist the blocking duties off on another TE, but if they struggle to keep Winston upright, he’s going to prioritize blocking over receiving when he has Evans and Godwin as alternatives and you don’t often stay in to block and receive on the same play.
That's what I was thinking with the Hockenson and Martz comments. On one hand you have a strong blocker, on the other you have a coach who so strongly favored a downfield passing attack he only cared about keeping his TEs in as 6th linemen. The downside was he didn't know what to do with a true dual threat like Olsen became and he pawned him off.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Pullo Vision » Thu May 23, 2019 4:21 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 7:26 pm
I don't see Howard as some lottery ticket that you're waiting on for free agency. He's already really good and had a rare 2nd-year TE breakout cut short because of injury. He's a complete TE, will play a lot and be a big factor in the passing game.
He's not a straight up lottery ticket, but I could see him failing to reach his statistical ceiling with Arians. In a way, you could compare him to Landry- he produced well enough to be worth owning and starting, but there was real excitement over the idea of him leaving Tannehill and the coaching carousel at Miami so he could be used more downfield.

I don't envision Arians leaving soon (unless he retires again) so Howard's only prayer of truly flexing his muscles and being more than a mid range guy at his position could easily be leaving. Injury, target-share and role could all limit him. Given how many years before that he can leave, I'd rather flip that value into something else. That said, I wouldn't take a 2019 1st for him.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu May 23, 2019 8:49 pm

Pullo Vision wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 4:21 pm
He's not a straight up lottery ticket, but I could see him failing to reach his statistical ceiling with Arians. In a way, you could compare him to Landry- he produced well enough to be worth owning and starting, but there was real excitement over the idea of him leaving Tannehill and the coaching carousel at Miami so he could be used more downfield.

I don't envision Arians leaving soon (unless he retires again) so Howard's only prayer of truly flexing his muscles and being more than a mid range guy at his position could easily be leaving. Injury, target-share and role could all limit him. Given how many years before that he can leave, I'd rather flip that value into something else. That said, I wouldn't take a 2019 1st for him.
I still feel like you're overthinking this. Arians isn't some restricter of TE's. If anything, his offense is super-friendly to big play talents who can also run a variety of routes. His three best players on offense: Evans, Godwin, Howard just so happen to be that. Howard is in a great, high upside situation right now. Not to mention, from a fantasy standpoint the Bucs project to be one of the most pass happy teams in the league. Their defense still blows chunks and they have zero running game.

Howard's role isn't going to be challenged by anyone. He's the guy. Cameron Brate isn't that good and already lost heavy usage to Howard last year. He's the clear #2.

Also, keep this in mind (courtesy of Evan Silva):

* #Bucs TE OJ Howard avg'd 11+ yds per target in each of his first two NFL seasons

* In 2018, Howard was 1st in yard per reception (11.8)

* In 2018, Howard was 3rd in targets over 15+ from LOS (35%)

* Neither Kelce nor Ertz has ever reached 10 yds per target

* Kittle avg'd 10.1 yds per target last year with most TE yards of all time

* Gronk reached 11 yds per target once in 9-year career

There is no chance that Arians is watching tape of Howard running routes downfield and thinking "You know what? I should make him just a blocker and send that Cameron Brate guy out there to catch everything!"

Buy Howard (and Godwin) while you still can.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Hottoddies » Thu May 23, 2019 9:29 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 8:49 pm
Pullo Vision wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 4:21 pm
He's not a straight up lottery ticket, but I could see him failing to reach his statistical ceiling with Arians. In a way, you could compare him to Landry- he produced well enough to be worth owning and starting, but there was real excitement over the idea of him leaving Tannehill and the coaching carousel at Miami so he could be used more downfield.

I don't envision Arians leaving soon (unless he retires again) so Howard's only prayer of truly flexing his muscles and being more than a mid range guy at his position could easily be leaving. Injury, target-share and role could all limit him. Given how many years before that he can leave, I'd rather flip that value into something else. That said, I wouldn't take a 2019 1st for him.
I still feel like you're overthinking this. Arians isn't some restricter of TE's. If anything, his offense is super-friendly to big play talents who can also run a variety of routes. His three best players on offense: Evans, Godwin, Howard just so happen to be that. Howard is in a great, high upside situation right now. Not to mention, from a fantasy standpoint the Bucs project to be one of the most pass happy teams in the league. Their defense still blows chunks and they have zero running game.

Howard's role isn't going to be challenged by anyone. He's the guy. Cameron Brate isn't that good and already lost heavy usage to Howard last year. He's the clear #2.

Also, keep this in mind (courtesy of Evan Silva):
To be fair, Howard's stats were bolstered by two really long bombs where he was, for some reason, totally uncovered.
* #Bucs TE OJ Howard avg'd 11+ yds per target in each of his first two NFL seasons

* In 2018, Howard was 1st in yard per reception (11.8)

* In 2018, Howard was 3rd in targets over 15+ from LOS (35%)

* Neither Kelce nor Ertz has ever reached 10 yds per target

* Kittle avg'd 10.1 yds per target last year with most TE yards of all time

* Gronk reached 11 yds per target once in 9-year career

There is no chance that Arians is watching tape of Howard running routes downfield and thinking "You know what? I should make him just a blocker and send that Cameron Brate guy out there to catch everything!"

Buy Howard (and Godwin) while you still can.
To be fair, Howard's stats were bolstered by two really long bombs that were, for some reason, totally uncovered.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Blueboy » Thu May 23, 2019 9:39 pm

He also posted similar YPR as a rookie.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Hottoddies » Thu May 23, 2019 10:24 pm

I think two facts are abundantly clear: O.J. Howard is a really gifted receiving TE and Bruce Arians traditionally uses his TEs to help out in pass protection. We can go back and forth on this until we're blue in the face. I don't know how this conflict will play out but it should be interesting. We may just have to wait and see when the season starts. I certainly remember owning Heath Miller back in the day and having to bench him any time Pittsburgh played against a team with a dominate pass rush. It certainly doesn't help that Howard is a great blocker.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri May 24, 2019 4:16 am

Hottoddies wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 10:24 pm
I think two facts are abundantly clear: O.J. Howard is a really gifted receiving TE and Bruce Arians traditionally uses his TEs to help out in pass protection. We can go back and forth on this until we're blue in the face. I don't know how this conflict will play out but it should be interesting. We may just have to wait and see when the season starts. I certainly remember owning Heath Miller back in the day and having to bench him any time Pittsburgh played against a team with a dominate pass rush. It certainly doesn't help that Howard is a great blocker.
You have to look at the quality of player Bruce Arians typically had at TE. It's mostly bad TE's, with his best TE's being just alright. You shouldn't be thinking:

"You know what? I'm not sold on O.J. Howard. It's because..."

*Checks notes*

"...O.J. Santiago, Jermaine Gresham and Coby Fleener didn't do anything in his offenses."

Howard is by far the most talented TE he's ever coached and one thing is true about Arians offenses: He gets the ball to the best players. It just so happens that one of the best players on the team is an everydown TE who can block and stretch the field.

Buy the hell out of Evans, Godwin and Howard. There is no run game, the defense still sucks, and they have a QB who likes to air it out and take chances anyway.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby ericanadian » Fri May 24, 2019 4:25 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 8:49 pm
Pullo Vision wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 4:21 pm
He's not a straight up lottery ticket, but I could see him failing to reach his statistical ceiling with Arians. In a way, you could compare him to Landry- he produced well enough to be worth owning and starting, but there was real excitement over the idea of him leaving Tannehill and the coaching carousel at Miami so he could be used more downfield.

I don't envision Arians leaving soon (unless he retires again) so Howard's only prayer of truly flexing his muscles and being more than a mid range guy at his position could easily be leaving. Injury, target-share and role could all limit him. Given how many years before that he can leave, I'd rather flip that value into something else. That said, I wouldn't take a 2019 1st for him.
I still feel like you're overthinking this. Arians isn't some restricter of TE's. If anything, his offense is super-friendly to big play talents who can also run a variety of routes. His three best players on offense: Evans, Godwin, Howard just so happen to be that. Howard is in a great, high upside situation right now. Not to mention, from a fantasy standpoint the Bucs project to be one of the most pass happy teams in the league. Their defense still blows chunks and they have zero running game.

Howard's role isn't going to be challenged by anyone. He's the guy. Cameron Brate isn't that good and already lost heavy usage to Howard last year. He's the clear #2.

Also, keep this in mind (courtesy of Evan Silva):

* #Bucs TE OJ Howard avg'd 11+ yds per target in each of his first two NFL seasons

* In 2018, Howard was 1st in yard per reception (11.8)

* In 2018, Howard was 3rd in targets over 15+ from LOS (35%)

* Neither Kelce nor Ertz has ever reached 10 yds per target

* Kittle avg'd 10.1 yds per target last year with most TE yards of all time

* Gronk reached 11 yds per target once in 9-year career

There is no chance that Arians is watching tape of Howard running routes downfield and thinking "You know what? I should make him just a blocker and send that Cameron Brate guy out there to catch everything!"

Buy Howard (and Godwin) while you still can.
This is a ridiculous level of hyperbole that you seem really attached to. No one is arguing that Howard is going to be exclusively a blocker. If things go poorly for the line and Howard needs to block a lot, we’re still talking 60-80 targets and potential for low-end TE1 numbers. If they go well and the line holds up, that could easily move to 90-110 targets. I just don’t see a situation where you’ve got a Kelce/Kittle/Ertz level of volume headed his way under any circumstances.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri May 24, 2019 5:33 am

ericanadian wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 4:25 am
This is a ridiculous level of hyperbole that you seem really attached to. No one is arguing that Howard is going to be exclusively a blocker. If things go poorly for the line and Howard needs to block a lot, we’re still talking 60-80 targets and potential for low-end TE1 numbers. If they go well and the line holds up, that could easily move to 90-110 targets. I just don’t see a situation where you’ve got a Kelce/Kittle/Ertz level of volume headed his way under any circumstances.
Yes there are. There are people going as far to say that Howard needs to change teams to actually be utilized to a relevant level in the passing game.

At the same time, I haven't once said that Howard is going to post Kittle numbers. But he's the most talented TE outside of the Top 3 and was on pace to breakout last season before injury.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Pullo Vision » Fri May 24, 2019 6:11 am

ericanadian wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 4:25 am
Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 8:49 pm
Pullo Vision wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 4:21 pm
He's not a straight up lottery ticket, but I could see him failing to reach his statistical ceiling with Arians. In a way, you could compare him to Landry- he produced well enough to be worth owning and starting, but there was real excitement over the idea of him leaving Tannehill and the coaching carousel at Miami so he could be used more downfield.

I don't envision Arians leaving soon (unless he retires again) so Howard's only prayer of truly flexing his muscles and being more than a mid range guy at his position could easily be leaving. Injury, target-share and role could all limit him. Given how many years before that he can leave, I'd rather flip that value into something else. That said, I wouldn't take a 2019 1st for him.
I still feel like you're overthinking this. Arians isn't some restricter of TE's. If anything, his offense is super-friendly to big play talents who can also run a variety of routes. His three best players on offense: Evans, Godwin, Howard just so happen to be that. Howard is in a great, high upside situation right now. Not to mention, from a fantasy standpoint the Bucs project to be one of the most pass happy teams in the league. Their defense still blows chunks and they have zero running game.

Howard's role isn't going to be challenged by anyone. He's the guy. Cameron Brate isn't that good and already lost heavy usage to Howard last year. He's the clear #2.

Also, keep this in mind (courtesy of Evan Silva):

* #Bucs TE OJ Howard avg'd 11+ yds per target in each of his first two NFL seasons

* In 2018, Howard was 1st in yard per reception (11.8)

* In 2018, Howard was 3rd in targets over 15+ from LOS (35%)

* Neither Kelce nor Ertz has ever reached 10 yds per target

* Kittle avg'd 10.1 yds per target last year with most TE yards of all time

* Gronk reached 11 yds per target once in 9-year career

There is no chance that Arians is watching tape of Howard running routes downfield and thinking "You know what? I should make him just a blocker and send that Cameron Brate guy out there to catch everything!"

Buy Howard (and Godwin) while you still can.
This is a ridiculous level of hyperbole that you seem really attached to. No one is arguing that Howard is going to be exclusively a blocker. If things go poorly for the line and Howard needs to block a lot, we’re still talking 60-80 targets and potential for low-end TE1 numbers. If they go well and the line holds up, that could easily move to 90-110 targets. I just don’t see a situation where you’ve got a Kelce/Kittle/Ertz level of volume headed his way under any circumstances.
Howard has a wide range of outcomes on a per-game and season-long basis, driven by target competition, risk of injury and role. If things break right, he's, what, a top 5 TE? I've never seen any mention he can usurp the Kelce/Kittle/Ertz trio, so we're giving him a max ceiling of 4th or 5th. Unfortunately, those same factors give him a floor of, what, high end 2nd string TE? Since I don't see Arians leaving, clone those results for the next year or two. Add QB uncertainty with Winston's contract.

There's no denying Howard's ceiling. It's very appealing. But, factors drive down his hypothetical floor. If I can get a price matching that ceiling, I expect I'd cash out.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri May 24, 2019 7:33 am

Regarding Howard- what's the best finish from a TE over the past 5 years who wasn't the biggest receiving threat on his own team? It seems like the presence of a guy like Evans really caps his ceiling.

2018: Eric Ebron put up 222.2 PPR points with Hilton hurt, Cook put up 193.6 with Cooper getting traded. Hooper scored 163 points.
2017: Delanie Walker put up 174 and Engram put up 173 with Davis and Beckham missing time, respectively.
2016: Kyle Rudolph scored 209 points, although Diggs and Thielen hadn't really broken out, starting 11 and 10 games. Rudolph out-targeted each of them.
2015: Gary Barnidge had a crazy 237 point season, but he was still that team's primary target, securing the same number of targets as Travis Benjamin and more red-zone looks. Tyler Eifert's 191.5 point season despite a full AJ Green year seems like a reasonable comparable.
2014: Antonio Gates put up 223 points and was TE3 despite having Keenan Allen around, and Martellus Bennett scored 221.6 despite being the 3rd target on his own team (Alshon, Forte).

Looking at all these seasons combined, the top 12 PPR seasons from TEs the past 5 years all came from guys who were their team's best pass catcher. Antonio Gates' 2014 season is the best season with a player comparable to Mike Evans fighting for targets. I'd agree that his ceiling is probably lower than what we've seen from Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle, and it's probably lower than Engram's as well. I think concerns about Arians' offense are overblown with regard to his floor, at least based on what I'm reading here, but I do think that the combination of Arians' offense not getting Howard enough targets and Evans' presence capping his TD upside makes it harder to see a scenario where he's above that 220 point threshold without a major injury to somebody.
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