Mike Evans - The Dislike Is Real for this Perennial WR1 - Discussion Thread

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby ArrylT » Wed May 15, 2019 8:58 pm

I think this may be too difficult a question due to all the different circumstances, to answer accurately. But I'll try anyways. ;)

It is not like every WR in the 2019 draft was a short/shifty MB type either, rather it seems like it was 40-50% (based on a review of the WRs drafted). Therefore it seems to be not an either / or proposition - NFL teams are not going to only covet Marquise Brown or Hakeem Butler, rather they will focus on the best talent at the position of need, and teams are more open and comfortable feeding short/shifty types. If a taller WR is equal in talent to a shorter WR, at their position of need, then they'll likely still lean height. But there is less of an emphasis on the big guy prospects that need more developmental time, and more of an appreciation (which I believe Cameron Giles has discussed) of pro-ready route running.

However that is something that has always been important to know. A team isnt going to draft an X type WR if they feel their needs are best suited by a slot guy, or they wont draft the #1 slot guy, if they are focused on the Y or X position.

In other words teams are (a) becoming more focused on drafting at the sub-position of need and (b) more open to making the slot or flanker a position of need. That may mean some of a de-emphasis of the prototypical X type, but not a dislike of them or an avoidance.

The majority of WR1s this past year were still guys like Julio Jones, Deandre Hopkins & Mike Evans. Smaller guys are becoming more prevalent as WR2s and 3s but the 2 5'10 guys that ended up as WR1s also were part of 2 highly prolific offenses with other prolific weapons with similar target shares, so it is not like 5'10 guys are the new target hogs, and Jarvis Landry shows the limitations of them in a sub-optimal situation. In other words their floor may be safer, but their ceiling will remain as blocked as any other type of WR by the volume & quality of their targets.

There were 5 WR taken in the 1st in the 2014 draft, and 12 by the end of the 2nd. So it seems based on the types of WRs that even if 1 team had not taken him another one would have, if the situations & need for WR were identical, just the top desired profile was now a 5'9-5'11 short shifty type over a 6'1-6'3 big bodied type.

Basically if you have 100 big guys and 20 small guys it looks like the big guys dominate. However if you add 60 more small guys, that doesnt lessen the # of big guys. it just gives the perception that they are less important in relation. Which is what seems to be happening. If big guys can produce or be useful right away they'll still get drafted highly (see Patriots), but if they are going to be more of a project, then maybe they'll be drafted later (see Cardinals and Packers in 2018).

So assuming the same exact 2014 class but 5 years later, I think, yes he likely would still have been a WR drafted in the same range because he was obviously one of the coveted guys at that profile, and there is still a need for that profile, and he produced right away.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Wed May 15, 2019 8:59 pm

I got a 1.06 rookie pick in DLF Premuim League, and I'd for sure take Evans if he was available, unless DK Metcalf was still on the board.

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed May 15, 2019 9:04 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 7:18 pm He went 7th overall in the NFL draft.

I’m asking if a prospect like him would go 7th overall in the real life NFL, seeing how the league is seeming to really devalue the monster size/speed/“I’ll just Moss you” type of guys.

Granted, Mike Williams is one of those type of WRs and he did go that early 2 years ago, but I can’t help but think Hakeem Butler would have been a 1st round NFL pick, if he came out in say 2013.
The league is devaluing them or maybe we had a pretty good run the past 10 years of some great size speed guys that were actually talented too coming out of college. This whole notion is making my head hurt.

You just answered you're own question that a big wr went top 10 just 2 years ago. There have been plenty big athletic types of WR's that have went 2nd, 3rd round, 4th round that probably looked a lot like Butler and were terrible. Just go through previous drafts and look them up. DGB, Brian Quick, Moncrief, Martavis, idk you could make a long list. Brandon Marshall went 4th and was good, Golladay too (late 3rd). Not every size speed guy that produced on a college football field went 1st round of the NFL draft the past 10-15 years.

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Wed May 15, 2019 9:19 pm

Evans is such a unique player ... he has the most amazing & stable floor, but he lacks any sexy upside for some reason ... maybe its because he plays for a dumpster fire NFL team ... maybe because he's a weird tweener between possession WR and game changer. Granted I've not seen a lot of his games (goes to Tampa being a dumpster fire), but I've never seen him takeover and dominate a game like OBJ, AB or Julio.

In regards to your specific question, I don't think he goes #7 in an NFL draft today. I think NFL teams are looking for players in the Top 10 that fundamentally change how opponents prepare for them. As good as he is, I don't think NFL teams game plan against him when they play the Bucs.

Just my drunk $0.02.

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Friction » Thu May 16, 2019 4:14 am

I dont think Mike Williams would, even though he was drafted not long ago. Evans is a tough call, since hindsight is so easy to see. All i know is in his last college season, about 5 times per game Manziel would scramble around for 15 seconds and heave up a bomb that somehow Evans would jump and snatch over 3 defenders in the middle of the field (30 yards down it). If i had to bet, he would still go first round, but maybe closer to the teens to early 20s. Not saying that is the correct call, but my gut says that is how the NFL as a whole may view his type of skillset nowadays.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Thu May 16, 2019 4:20 am

I think there is something about Hakeem Butler that NFL teams didn't like and that we're not aware of. We tend to forget that the real NFL has way more information than we do.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby jenkins.math » Thu May 16, 2019 5:17 am

I think you're looking at it the wrong way. It's not that the league is devaluing the big guys, but moreso the game has made brute strength for receivers less important with the rule changes. You can't sneeze on a WR now without it being a penalty. The rule changes have allowed the passing game to flourish for all pass catchers.

The NFL will always like the freak of natures. If there are 2 prospects that are identical in everything, the bigger one will always get picked ahead of the smaller guy. This year didnt have freaks of nature at the WR position that were as productive as their peers. That's why they didnt go high. Not because the league all of a sudden has it out for big receivers.

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby nathanq42 » Thu May 16, 2019 6:46 am

Mike Evans for sure has sexy upside. He has a 1500 yard season under his belt, and a double digit TD season under his belt. TDs are unpredictable so if he can get ~1400 and double digit TDs that would be very game breaking. As an Evans owner there have for sure been times he has won me weeks. Go through his game logs, you'll find some games where you'd assume he was playing against college kids, or was just left open all game.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Ice » Thu May 16, 2019 8:34 am

Not a chance he would have gone near that high in this draft. Way too much defensive talent and the WR group is very deep.

I could see the Pats taking him over Harry though.

Nothing against Evans but a different time and with so much defense and O line talent; he would have fallen like all the WR’s this draft in round 1.

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Ice » Thu May 16, 2019 8:43 am

Pac_Eddy wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 4:20 am I think there is something about Hakeem Butler that NFL teams didn't like and that we're not aware of. We tend to forget that the real NFL has way more information than we do.
Butler doesn’t catch the football very well and struggles against press on tape. Game speed is mechanical and pretty slow.

To his credit he did work with Calvin before the draft to learn a few moves but just being big isn’t enough.

He is project with long term upside but the risk is pretty high.

No doubt that is what teams were concerned about but the allure of his size helped or he would have fallen further. There could have been issues we don’t know about but doubt it based on where he was drafted which wasn’t that low based on his actual talent / skill level to date.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Thu May 16, 2019 9:14 am

nathanq42 wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 6:46 am Mike Evans for sure has sexy upside. He has a 1500 yard season under his belt, and a double digit TD season under his belt. TDs are unpredictable so if he can get ~1400 and double digit TDs that would be very game breaking. As an Evans owner there have for sure been times he has won me weeks. Go through his game logs, you'll find some games where you'd assume he was playing against college kids, or was just left open all game.
Exactly, he’s absolutely a game-wrecker for fantasy. I’ve owned him at least once in every league I’ve played in, and loved it.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby jenkins.math » Thu May 16, 2019 9:21 am

Ice wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 8:34 am Not a chance he would have gone near that high in this draft. Way too much defensive talent and the WR group is very deep.

I could see the Pats taking him over Harry though.

Nothing against Evans but a different time and with so much defense and O line talent; he would have fallen like all the WR’s this draft in round 1.

NFL Philosophy today is speed on defense and QB protection on offense.
NFL philosophy is about airing it out all over the place. The final 4 teams last season were the top 4 offenses I believe.

You honestly think Evans wouldn't have been the top WR taken this year? He would have probably gone top 10 again this year regardless of how deep the draft was at WR. The 49ers, Jets, Jags, and Bills all could have used Mike Evans. He would have been in a clear tier by himself and the NFL is always looking for game changers. This was just a bad year for top end skill position talent. It's been billed that way for an entire year. Next year will be back to having multiple WRs go early.

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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Lumps » Thu May 16, 2019 9:46 am

1. I can't believe how many couldn't follow the question you were asking.
2. I think this is a backwards way of clinging on to the fantasy community's notion that Butler was 1.1 in rookie drafts. You're basically taking the stance of: Butler at 1.1 was right, so would the NFL not draft Evans so highly now? Because clearly that's why Butler didn't go in the first round.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby Ice » Thu May 16, 2019 10:49 am

jenkins.math wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 9:21 am
Ice wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 8:34 am Not a chance he would have gone near that high in this draft. Way too much defensive talent and the WR group is very deep.

I could see the Pats taking him over Harry though.

Nothing against Evans but a different time and with so much defense and O line talent; he would have fallen like all the WR’s this draft in round 1.

NFL Philosophy today is speed on defense and QB protection on offense.
NFL philosophy is about airing it out all over the place. The final 4 teams last season were the top 4 offenses I believe.

You honestly think Evans wouldn't have been the top WR taken this year? He would have probably gone top 10 again this year regardless of how deep the draft was at WR. The 49ers, Jets, Jags, and Bills all could have used Mike Evans. He would have been in a clear tier by himself and the NFL is always looking for game changers. This was just a bad year for top end skill position talent. It's been billed that way for an entire year. Next year will be back to having multiple WRs go early.
Not sure if he would have been 1st WR taken but I highly doubt it.

He didn’t test all that great compared to multiple WR’s in this draft. His tape was decent but routes were not crisp. Vertical was average as were most of his numbers.

Hind sight is 20 / 20 but no team would have known that at the time.

Obviously, he is elite today but outside of his size he wasn’t special compared to many in this class.

He did benefit from a very good college QB much like a M. Brown so teams did know he had a solid chance to develop.

Of course all those teams could use an Evans today but they also needed defense front line help which is a more needed position with a lower bust factor.

This draft was extremely strong up front and today GM’s will reach on a QB but for the most part they want impact starters at the top of the draft.

Today he may have gone in the 2nd round. Doesn’t really matter as teams expect starters in the first 3 rounds which are all high picks through the eyes of NFLGM’s.
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Re: Would Mike Evans be a top pick in a draft nowadays?

Postby _yeti » Thu May 16, 2019 11:23 am

ninotoreS wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 7:26 pm Butler's collegiate resume can't hold Evans' jockstrap. Butler took four years to have one big season, whereas Evans was a stud immediately, and declared after just two seasons. Butler played for a bad team in a so-so conference, whereas Evans was dominating the best defenses in FBS. Evans got the benefit of having the most (in)famous QB in the NCAA throw him passes, while as I sit here typing this I have no idea who was Iowa State's QB. All this is aside from Butler's flaws on tape, for example his egregious drop rate and poor ball-skills.

I'll concede that if not for all the media exposure Evans enjoyed catching passes from Manziel in the SEC, Evans' collegiate tape was probably more of a late-1st quality than top-10. Even so, he was a far more exciting prospect than Butler. I can't overstate how important it was that Evans was mega productive against top competition as only a freshman and sophomore.
This. It is ludicrous to think he wouldn't be the first WR taken in this draft. Corey Davis, Mike Williams, at no point have teams stopped taking big WRs high in the draft. This draft is an indication of the lack of talent at the skill positions. That may be proven wrong, but I believe it. Along those same lines, we do have the ability of seeing how Evans played out and it has been better than teams could have hoped for at draft time. So the only reason he wouldn't go as high as he did or higher is just saying that the class was deep at other positions. Not so deep that he wouldn't have been snatched up where he was or higher.

Just a few years ago everyone was taking as fact that highly drafted RBs were a thing of the past. Then we get Gurley, Gordon, Zeke, Fournette, Barkley. Point being that the cream rises to the top and Evans is simply a better WR offering more than every receiver in this class, that's how he was evaluated at the time and it was proven right. These guys are not getting that type of grade and I agree. That is why I like Nino's takes, it isn't just a matchup of combine numbers or college stats. I am not a WR scout, and don't have the all-22 view of the games, but I am not seeing much in this draft class. I could be totally wrong but that's how they have been graded out and they fell accordingly.
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