Undervalued TEs to target?

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Ice
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Ice » Tue May 07, 2019 8:17 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 10:26 pm
I’m red hot for Kahale Warring.
SHHHHH,

I have a draft coming up on the 12th in my money league. :D

Think he will be a stud in 3 years and going un-drafted in a lot of leagues.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Jigga94 » Tue May 07, 2019 8:21 am

Goddard wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 3:57 pm
Hooper was something like TE6 last year and could probably be had for a random 2nd.
This is probably the best TE that is undervalued.

I'd add Herndon, Andrews and Thomas in a tier down
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck (IR)
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ballage, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, D.J. Moore, Cooks, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Parris, Hamilton, Preston (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant
2020: 1, 2, 3, 4, 4

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam (IR)
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Penny, Hunt, J. Samuels, J. Jackson
WR: D.J. Moore, Mike Will, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Deebo, Diontae, KeeSean, AB, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki
2020: 1, 2, 2
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Bot101 » Tue May 07, 2019 8:33 am

My home league is fast asleep on Herndon. Not only have I never even received an offer but I've thrown him into trades that were close to seal the deal and he didnt get me anywhere. Even TE needy teams arent interested. I wasnt valuing him enough when I was shopping. And recently I've corrected that mistake.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Tue May 07, 2019 9:15 am

Bot101 wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 8:33 am
My home league is fast asleep on Herndon. Not only have I never even received an offer but I've thrown him into trades that were close to seal the deal and he didnt get me anywhere. Even TE needy teams arent interested. I wasnt valuing him enough when I was shopping. And recently I've corrected that mistake.
I'm in a couple leagues that I'm really TE needy. I don't see Herndon as any great value. I wouldn't pay more than a late round flier (4th rounder, late 3rd maybe). There are a lot of "young, high potential but haven't done anything yet" TEs, so why pay much? It can take a couple years to see if they pan out.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Ice » Tue May 07, 2019 9:32 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:15 am
Bot101 wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 8:33 am
My home league is fast asleep on Herndon. Not only have I never even received an offer but I've thrown him into trades that were close to seal the deal and he didnt get me anywhere. Even TE needy teams arent interested. I wasnt valuing him enough when I was shopping. And recently I've corrected that mistake.
I'm in a couple leagues that I'm really TE needy. I don't see Herndon as any great value. I wouldn't pay more than a late round flier (4th rounder, late 3rd maybe). There are a lot of "young, high potential but haven't done anything yet" TEs, so why pay much? It can take a couple years to see if they pan out.
One pays for upside production. Obviously if you don't see the potential then you are not going to pay.

I am with Bot on this one. He may or may not pan out ultimately but his upside warrants holding and not throwing him in a deal as an afterthought or selling him cheap for a completely unproven dart throw that is the 3rd and 4th round of a rookie draft.

This is Herndon's 2nd year and he certainly flashed as a rookie last year. Once he started playing more in week 6 he was a top 7 TE in fantasy. Pretty good with a rookie QB. They are growing together.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby JFever » Tue May 07, 2019 9:47 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:15 am
Bot101 wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 8:33 am
My home league is fast asleep on Herndon. Not only have I never even received an offer but I've thrown him into trades that were close to seal the deal and he didnt get me anywhere. Even TE needy teams arent interested. I wasnt valuing him enough when I was shopping. And recently I've corrected that mistake.
I'm in a couple leagues that I'm really TE needy. I don't see Herndon as any great value. I wouldn't pay more than a late round flier (4th rounder, late 3rd maybe). There are a lot of "young, high potential but haven't done anything yet" TEs, so why pay much? It can take a couple years to see if they pan out.
^ This seems crazy to me. No offense. But, you couldn't be more polar opposite than me on this view point. Maybe your right and I'm way off base on projections and valuations. For those of you saying Herndon isn't undervalued. Just read what Pac eddy wrote. It is as if he knows but doesnt know. He plays fantasy football but maybe doesn't watch too much of it. Maybe he is new to dynasty. But.... if you wait a couple years and a TE does pan out.... then that guy costs as much as Kittle. Herndon flashed big time last year. He is way young, is paired with a young and up coming QB and has "the" or at least close to the worst wr corp in the league. Yes, they added Bell. But, Bell coming off a whole year off is (IMO) destined to miss time, plus, lets not forget Bell hasn't been totally clean off the feild and it only takes one little screw up. Herndon's target share may not grow by leaps and bounds but - it doesn't have to.
Last edited by JFever on Tue May 07, 2019 9:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Bot101 » Tue May 07, 2019 9:49 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:15 am
Bot101 wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 8:33 am
My home league is fast asleep on Herndon. Not only have I never even received an offer but I've thrown him into trades that were close to seal the deal and he didnt get me anywhere. Even TE needy teams arent interested. I wasnt valuing him enough when I was shopping. And recently I've corrected that mistake.
I'm in a couple leagues that I'm really TE needy. I don't see Herndon as any great value. I wouldn't pay more than a late round flier (4th rounder, late 3rd maybe). There are a lot of "young, high potential but haven't done anything yet" TEs, so why pay much? It can take a couple years to see if they pan out.
If you dont believe then fine. But he looked great when was finally allowed to play. And his chemistry with Darnold was apparent right away. Nobody will sell a TE with the current landscape for free (3rds and 4ths). I think I tried to sell for a mid 2nd and was shot down. To me that was a perfectly fair and reasonable price.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Johnny Canuck » Tue May 07, 2019 10:21 am

Herndon is good, but he's not the next coming of Kittle due to one big difference...opportunity. They've added more competition for targets, and a new coaching staff all around. It's not going to matter how he did last yr when Gase just asks him to block on all his snaps this season...He's worth a 3rd round flier if you like him, but some of you are really forgetting who the true gate keeper to production is....Gase. Herndon could be the next great TE talent, but if he doesn't have the opportunity he won't get the production it's just that simple. I like Herndon, but as soon as Gase became the HC, Herndon left my target/trade for board.

Hayden Hurst is a great target imo. Foot issues always take longer to heal, so I highly doubt we saw the real Hurst last season. Doesn't hurt that the TE coach from last yr, is now the OC and designing the playbook for this season. It stands to reason that the TE coach, that wanted to take an overaged Hurst in the first round last yr, is going to make his playbook a bit more TE friendly - esp with the limitations of Ljax arm talent. Ntm all their WR talent are in their rookie yr.

Imo it'll be like a magic trick, while everyone is distractedly watching and waiting on Andrews, Hurst will quietly jump up and take the spot as the ravens TE1. Draft capital matters and the Ravens took Hurst at 25, Andrews was at 86.
Last edited by Johnny Canuck on Tue May 07, 2019 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
Half pt ppr dynasty - start 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex

QB: Luck, Cousins
RB: Fournette, A. Jones, Ingram, Kerryon, McCoy, Ajayi, Love,
WR: AJG, TY Hilton, Adams, Fuller, Josh Gordon, Moncrief, Funchess
TE: Engram, Fant, Andrews
2020: 2, 2, 3

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Tue May 07, 2019 10:33 am

JFever wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:47 am
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:15 am
Bot101 wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 8:33 am
My home league is fast asleep on Herndon. Not only have I never even received an offer but I've thrown him into trades that were close to seal the deal and he didnt get me anywhere. Even TE needy teams arent interested. I wasnt valuing him enough when I was shopping. And recently I've corrected that mistake.
I'm in a couple leagues that I'm really TE needy. I don't see Herndon as any great value. I wouldn't pay more than a late round flier (4th rounder, late 3rd maybe). There are a lot of "young, high potential but haven't done anything yet" TEs, so why pay much? It can take a couple years to see if they pan out.
^ This seems crazy to me. No offense. But, you couldn't be more polar opposite than me on this view point. Maybe your right and I'm way off base on projections and valuations. For those of you saying Herndon isn't undervalued. Just read what Pac eddy wrote. It is as if he knows but doesnt know. He plays fantasy football but maybe doesn't watch too much of it. Maybe he is new to dynasty. But.... if you wait a couple years and a TE does pan out.... then that guy costs as much as Kittle. Herndon flashed big time last year. He is way young, is paired with a young and up coming QB and has "the" or at least close to the worst wr corp in the league. Yes, they added Bell. But, Bell coming off a whole year off is (IMO) destined to miss time, plus, lets not forget Bell hasn't been totally clean off the feild and it only takes one little screw up. Herndon's target share may not grow by leaps and bounds but - it doesn't have to.
No offense taken. I've played fantasy football for a long time and there are a lot of these types of TEs. I agree, if they do it, the price is high to acquire. But the odds of hitting is so low, and they CAN be had as throw-ins or if rosters are tight, when they're cut. In today's TE environment, it takes very little production to be a top 10 guy, so even if you have a terrible TE, you're not that far behind.

On the flip side, having guys with my opinion on these TEs keeps the price lower for you to acquire them.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby FantasyDumDum » Tue May 07, 2019 10:41 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 10:33 am
JFever wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:47 am
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:15 am


I'm in a couple leagues that I'm really TE needy. I don't see Herndon as any great value. I wouldn't pay more than a late round flier (4th rounder, late 3rd maybe). There are a lot of "young, high potential but haven't done anything yet" TEs, so why pay much? It can take a couple years to see if they pan out.
^ This seems crazy to me. No offense. But, you couldn't be more polar opposite than me on this view point. Maybe your right and I'm way off base on projections and valuations. For those of you saying Herndon isn't undervalued. Just read what Pac eddy wrote. It is as if he knows but doesnt know. He plays fantasy football but maybe doesn't watch too much of it. Maybe he is new to dynasty. But.... if you wait a couple years and a TE does pan out.... then that guy costs as much as Kittle. Herndon flashed big time last year. He is way young, is paired with a young and up coming QB and has "the" or at least close to the worst wr corp in the league. Yes, they added Bell. But, Bell coming off a whole year off is (IMO) destined to miss time, plus, lets not forget Bell hasn't been totally clean off the feild and it only takes one little screw up. Herndon's target share may not grow by leaps and bounds but - it doesn't have to.
No offense taken. I've played fantasy football for a long time and there are a lot of these types of TEs. I agree, if they do it, the price is high to acquire. But the odds of hitting is so low, and they CAN be had as throw-ins or if rosters are tight, when they're cut. In today's TE environment, it takes very little production to be a top 10 guy, so even if you have a terrible TE, you're not that far behind.

On the flip side, having guys with my opinion on these TEs keeps the price lower for you to acquire them.
Fair enough. Good answer
10 team, .5ppr, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Andrews

Taxi Squad:

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby FantasyDumDum » Tue May 07, 2019 10:57 am

Another extrapolation here...

If Herndon just duplicates his numbers as a starter last year(last 11 games), on the same low target volume, but he does it for a full season(16 games), here is what he’d have:

71 target, 49 receptions, 662 yards, 6 TDs.

That would put him clearly into 6th in STD and in 7th in .5 and full PPR this last year.


I also think he gets more than the 4.5 average targets per game this year, even if just by a bit. Pushing his average targets only modestly up around 5.5 would have him threatening top 5 TEs. Getting a big bump up to 6.5 targets per game or more(100+ targets) would virtually guarantee it.

Other things in his favor:

He was a rookie last year, and TEs historically improve a lot from year 1 to year 2, and year 2 to year 3 and beyond.

He had a rookie QB in a low volume, low scoring offense last year. That situation will only be better all around this year and beyond. Darnold loves him. The coaching staff loves him.

Herndon’s tape is wildly good. He made some elite catches and athletic plays last season,

Herndon is 1.5 years younger than what most of us think of as the “young crop” of talented TEs(Howard, Engram, Henry). Njoku is younger by .5 year, but Njoku has already played 2 years and not been as impressive statistically as Herndon(although Njoku is very impressive on tape as well).




If the only argument against Herndon is that he won’t see as much volume I think that is complete speculation and ignores all the more grounded and realistic facts pointing to his major value as a likely mid to low TE1 right away next year with upside beyond that for the foreseeable future.

I think he has to be considered in the same tier, or very close, as Howard, Engram, Njoku, Henry. If he isn’t, he is undervalued imo
10 team, .5ppr, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Andrews

Taxi Squad:

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby ninotoreS » Tue May 07, 2019 11:46 am

djeternal2 wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 8:38 pm
I know the TE position is crap after the top 3; but, I think we can safely say Waller is NOT the answer.
Waller is probably on the waiver in most leagues, and can probably be grabbed with a 5th round rookie-draft pick or something. i.e. He's practically free. Obviously, this isn't bad at all for a projected starter on his offense with freak metrics.
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 10:26 pm
I’m red hot for Kahale Warring.
Are you anticipating '19 relevance?
Ice wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 8:17 am
Think [Warring] will be a stud in 3 years and going un-drafted in a lot of leagues.
Three years is longer than I prefer to wait for TE stashes in 1TE leagues. Typically a long-incubating TE like that can be 'stored' on the waiver for a year or two before one actually has to roster-stash him in anticipation of his breakout.

But is he really going undrafted right now? In this class? I haven't formalized my board yet, but I'm guessing Warring would slide in somewhere in the 3rd round for me.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby djeternal2 » Tue May 07, 2019 12:03 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 11:46 am
djeternal2 wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 8:38 pm
I know the TE position is crap after the top 3; but, I think we can safely say Waller is NOT the answer.
Waller is probably on the waiver in most leagues, and can probably be grabbed with a 5th round rookie-draft pick or something. i.e. He's practically free. Obviously, this isn't bad at all for a projected starter on his offense with freak metrics.

I was on the Waller train years back because of said metrics. But now he's been popped not once but twice for banned substances. Are the metrics in part due to possible PEDs? He is imo a classic underwear champion. He didn't have the on field metrics from college to justify the hype which I already admitted I got suckered into. Over his 3 year collegiate career he had 51 rec 971 yds 9 TDS in 33 games. I understand he's cheap; but, just because a guy is cheap doesn't mean he's a value. I'll be surprised if Moreau doesn't over take Waller sooner rather than later.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell

DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Dam Williams, J Howard, Crowell, Duke, AP, Gore, B Hill
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, Kumerow, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Shaheen, Firkser, Conklin

2020 1st - 2, 2020 2nd - 2, 2020 3rd - 0

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Space Cowboy » Tue May 07, 2019 1:03 pm

I wouldn't put much stock in Dickson just because he's the starter. I remember Luke Willson getting some hype because he was Detroit's starting TE last year.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Space Cowboy » Tue May 07, 2019 1:05 pm

M-Dub wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 12:42 am
I’m planting my flag for Adam Shaheen. He’s gonna outscore Burton this year. Book it.
Shaheen is a very good mention. I'd love to buy stock but one league is a TE premium so he's not cheap. Other league is a possibility.


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