I simply don't think he is dead certain to be the main guy. Just as I'm not certain Hyde will be either.
On top of that, I think it is a 1-year rental.
Just like Ware and West produced like elite RBs in that system.
I simply don't think he is dead certain to be the main guy. Just as I'm not certain Hyde will be either.
Even if you believe he's just a short-term gap, a late 2nd is a shot in the dark. Williams at least has games to point to where you know he can produce.
100 % agreed. To me choosing between Williams/Hyde is also a shot in the dark.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:30 pmEven if you believe he's just a short-term gap, a late 2nd is a shot in the dark. Williams at least has games to point to where you know he can produce.
To me, it's not even close. A late 2nd is essentially an early 3rd in terms of the type of player available.
What are the chances that a rookie you like with a late 2nd helps you win a league more than Williams next season?
I understand you’re trying to offer some kind of devils advocate POV, but beware of these bleep analytics sites.Valhalla wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:01 pmYour opinions aren't facts. You're right. You can't make up stats. You can certainly interpret them in various ways, though.FantasyDumDum wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:25 pm I don’t need to read any further than what you wrote about Breida being worse/less efficient in 2017...
Hyde 2017:
240/938yds, 3.9ypc, 8td. 88/59rec, 350yds, 5.9ypr, 0td.
Breida 2017:
105/465yds, 4.4ypc, 2td. 36/21rec, 180yds, 8.6ypr, 1td.
You can try to whip up wild narratives excusing Hyde’s terrible on field performance again and again and again across multiple offenses and schemes that are otherwise producing high end RB1s and 2 while he is barely playing at a backup level if that, but you can’t make up stats.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... plus-minus
According to the above article, Breida (and Marlon Mack) were the two most inefficient running backs on a per target level in the NFL in '17. Hyde has more drops faulted to him (one more), but on a much higher target count. Breida has more yards per reception, but dropped passes at a much higher percentage. You can interpret the stats to argue who was worse on your own. They were both bad.
What "wild narrative" was I whipping up? I thought my post was reasoned enough...do you think it's a wild narrative to say that the 49ers entire offense was inefficent? Or that Hue Jackson's or Doug Marrone's systems were inefficent? I guess that's too wild. Or maybe it's just wild because it opposes the "Damien is God" narrative...
PS I bought Damien recently. I'm just offering people some reasoned counters to your indisputable argumentative approach.
Slim.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:45 pmWhat are the chances that a rookie you like with a late 2nd helps you win a league more than Williams next season?
Maybe spending a 4th round pick on Darwin Thompson might do the trick.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:45 pmWhat are the chances that a rookie you like with a late 2nd helps you win a league more than Williams next season?
Can you direct me to where you got this?FantasyDumDum wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:48 pm I understand you’re trying to offer some kind of devils advocate POV, but beware of these bleep analytics sites....
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... by=targetsValhalla wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:34 pmCan you direct me to where you got this?FantasyDumDum wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:48 pm I understand you’re trying to offer some kind of devils advocate POV, but beware of these bleep analytics sites....
“His receiving production has been historically bad. Despite medium and heavy target volume respectively in 2016 and 2017, he had THE WORST production per target at that volume of any RB in NFL history over that time.”
I’m genuinely curious to read it. Under what statistical circumstances/cutoffs does he become the worst of all time?
I don’t follow much of what ffoutsiders does, but I find it ironic that you called them a bleep analytics site and followed up your proof of it with an extrapolation from 21 receptions. Maybe be more open to other opinions. Even the famed Einstein listened to and debated with his colleagues, and was wrong from time to time. There are a lot of very smart people that disagree on a lot of things. Healthy debates don’t make them dumb.
Hyde will be irrelevant. I feel extremely confident in that. Damien Williams has a very good shot to be an RB1, but that depends mostly on not being injured, and secondarily on not being outplayed by one of the rookies Thompson or J Williams, who have MUCH higher likelihood than Hyde or Darrel Williams of doing anything meaningful fantasy wise in KC. If Damien goes down I still don’t think Hyde is relevant as more than a part time 2 down back.JFever wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:01 pm FantasyDD, what are ya more confident in; Hyde totally sucking and being a fantasy non factor or D.Williams being a rb1 in dynasty scoring throughout the 2019 season? Just curious.
You’ve really dug your heels in here and I can respect that but, imo, context really does matter. As in there usually is a cause / effect to be found. Like, for example, D.Williams was a depth guy and 3rd on depth chart and looked the part of a classic fantasy JAG behind less than inspiring players while in Miami (a struggling offense), and after some drama (K.Hunt) in KC, (a very good offense), he gets an opportunity and he has a very effective and productive stretch. (albeit, a short stretch). I mean... context really does matter quite a bit. This leads me to think that given a better supporting cast and situation, Hyde could see a resurgence toward the end of his career. I don’t claim to know this, just that it is reasonable and seemingly probable to think or st least consider such a thing. Football stats simply are not always apples to apples. It isn’t one on one, like say wrestling or tennis. Ones team, scheme, coaches, play calling, game script, oline, oline health, surrounding skill position players, and qb, all have - or can have massive sinergistic effects (possitive or negative) on statistics. Just my take on it. Peace.
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