Donte Moncrief.

[Lord_Varys]

I’d take Moncrief above all other pass catchers from Pittsburgh in a 2019 redraft league. JuJu aside, of course.

Him and Washington don't eat into each other as the deep threat? Would be interested to hear more of your thoughts.

[ninotoreS]

I know you didn't ask me, but:

Although I suspect Washington might be better than Moncrief at the third-level (especially when contested), after reviewing the tape I have, Moncrief is a much better receiver at the first and second level; Moncrief's route-tree is nearly complete, whereas Washington is still learning how to do the things Okie State didn't care about him doing. For example, I noted Washington has a lot of trouble sinking his hips into his intermediate route breaks (he's a high-cut long-strider, makes it hard for him), and he's just not a 'sudden' mover for the first level.

Moncrief may not be Washington's equal in an exclusively third-level aspect, but he's not bad himself there (it's easily what he did best coming out of Ole Miss), and he's better at everything else, according to Washington's rookie tape. For sure the vertical element of the outside WRs is very important for Pittsburgh, but they don't just have them running go and post exclusively.

While I think Washington has a pretty good chance to beat Diontae for the no. 3 spot on the chart in '19 (although I won't plant that flag), I feel like the no. 2 spot for immediate '19 contribution requires a three-level guy (which is what A. Brown was, ofc), and right now that points to Moncrief.

[Flgatorguy87]

What are his realistic numbers for upside?

70/900/7?

[FantasyDumDum]

I don’t see Moncrief’s upside being high enough to be a startable option in virtually any format. Whereas the riskier high upside plays in Washington and D Johnson make much more sense. You don’t want any of these guys for their floor, so why go Moncrief when he is the most mediocre of them all from a talent and technically from a draft capital stand point?

[CGW]

Give me Juju, Washington, and whoever they drafted. Moncrief can continue to float around from offense to offense being an afterthought. He's worth an end of the bench flier I suppose.

[Phaded]

I see him more in the Martavis Bryant type role.

aka - unreliable, with the odd good game here or there where he probably won't even be in your lineup anyhow.

[pvillebiker]

Interestingly enough, I'm faced with a cut 1 of either Moncrief or Jamison Crowder this offseason. I have a little time, but was leaning towards keeping Crowder. Now not so sure. If Moncrief clicks with Ben, he could be a nice asset for a few years.

How would you value Moncrief in '19 rookie draft picks?

[lukkynumber13]

Interestingly enough, I'm faced with a cut 1 of either Moncrief or Jamison Crowder this offseason. I have a little time, but was leaning towards keeping Crowder. Now not so sure. If Moncrief clicks with Ben, he could be a nice asset for a few years.

How would you value Moncrief in '19 rookie draft picks?

Early 3rd probably

Maybe just send a message to the league saying "I have to cut a guy, so send offers for either Moncrief or Crowder. Highest bidder gets him, and won't have to gamble on waivers"

[ArrylT]

Interestingly enough, I'm faced with a cut 1 of either Moncrief or Jamison Crowder this offseason. I have a little time, but was leaning towards keeping Crowder. Now not so sure. If Moncrief clicks with Ben, he could be a nice asset for a few years.

How would you value Moncrief in '19 rookie draft picks?

As with many things it is all about preference. I would prefer Moncrief over Crowder because

(a) better QB
(b) more volume
(c) less competition

IE
Roethlisberger > Darnold for production volume & quality
therefore Moncrief > Crowder for potential targets

Unless a rookie I like slips out of the 1st, I doubt I would part with Moncrief for a 2nd (although I have bought Moncrief with a 2nd). I am sure many owners would - but Moncrief has at least shown he can last in the NFL and has flashed production at times & earned both a 2nd & 3rd contract where he got/will get targets. While I am and always have been bullish long term about this class, Moncrief is one of those guys who could put together a very nice season (emphasis on could not will). There are plenty of WRs who took years to finally get over injuries / develop / right situation like Doug Baldwin, Robert Woods, Marvin Jones before they had a period of sustained production.

[Cameron Giles]

At some point, we probably should just accept that Moncrief isn't any good.

[ninotoreS]

At some point, we probably should just accept that Moncrief isn't any good.

Tell that to the NFL teams that keep signing him, though. Wasn't so long ago that everyone around here treated the Steelers' acumen for WR selection and development like gospel. They signed Moncrief early in free-agency and beat out some other teams with WR need that wanted him.

Moncrief got the best landing spot for WRs in free-agency. Doesn't seem like it should have been him, but it was.

[Cameron Giles]

At some point, we probably should just accept that Moncrief isn't any good.

Tell that to the NFL teams that keep signing him, though. Wasn't so long ago that everyone around here treated the Steelers' acumen for WR selection and development like gospel. They signed Moncrief early in free-agency and beat out some other teams with WR need that wanted him.

Moncrief got the best landing spot for WRs in free-agency. Doesn't seem like it should have been him, but it was.

I'm not surprised that he continues to get work. He's at least an NFL WR. I just don't think he's really good at any particular thing. At the rate Brown got open in Pittsburgh, they're going to need someone to cover a lot if ground opposite Juju

[Pullo Vision]

Interestingly enough, I'm faced with a cut 1 of either Moncrief or Jamison Crowder this offseason. I have a little time, but was leaning towards keeping Crowder. Now not so sure. If Moncrief clicks with Ben, he could be a nice asset for a few years.

How would you value Moncrief in '19 rookie draft picks?

As with many things it is all about preference. I would prefer Moncrief over Crowder because

(a) better QB
(b) more volume
(c) less competition

IE
Roethlisberger > Darnold for production volume & quality
therefore Moncrief > Crowder for potential targets

Unless a rookie I like slips out of the 1st, I doubt I would part with Moncrief for a 2nd (although I have bought Moncrief with a 2nd). I am sure many owners would - but Moncrief has at least shown he can last in the NFL and has flashed production at times & earned both a 2nd & 3rd contract where he got/will get targets. While I am and always have been bullish long term about this class, Moncrief is one of those guys who could put together a very nice season (emphasis on could not will). There are plenty of WRs who took years to finally get over injuries / develop / right situation like Doug Baldwin, Robert Woods, Marvin Jones before they had a period of sustained production.

Agree with this. I prefer Moncrief in general, and against Crowder specifically, for being in a high volume pass offense with a huge target share void from last year. He's the higher upside play.

[ArrylT]

I just want to clarify 1 thing. I do not think Donte Moncrief will breakout into a WR1 or even a high end WR2 this year. However I do feel that not all targets are identical. Moncrief had 89 targets in Jax, which was good for approx 17% target share. His stat line:

48-668-3

However not even Deandre Hopkins or Larry Fitzgerald could survive suboptimal situations, so expecting Moncrief to have great #'s when your QBs are Bortles & Kessler is silly. You'll get mediocre production out of mediocre level QB play.

No the argument being made is that Moncrief could have similar target share this year 16-17% but have a much better result. Ben Roethlisberger is pretty much a lock for 580-600 attempts. So thats 95-105 targets for Moncrief assuming he keeps that modest 16-17%.

And then you look at guys who got that target level last year in similar quality situations:

Humphries: 104 targets 76-816-5 WR24
Godwin: 95 targets 59-842-7 WR26
Jeffery: 92 targets 65-846-6 WR25

Moncrief doesnt need to be elite. Just simply doing what he did last year could possibly turn into a 2 year window of high end WR3 low end WR2 production, and that is without any optimistic target share projections like 18-20-22%.

AB left 168 targets, even if you give half of them immediately to James Washington (on top of what he already got) that still leaves around 100 targets for Moncrief. 168+34 % 2 = 101.

[ninotoreS]

Some puffery:

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/ste ... 1906110120
https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2019 ... eelers-hh/

Considered together with Diontae and Washington being quiet so far through OTAs and minicamp, at this point I think I'm comfortable projecting Moncrief -- beyond just hypothesis -- as the favorite to be the #2 WR to start the season. He's the veteran, he has no limitations with his route tree, and now the WRs coach and the QB confirming Moncrief has been a quick-study with the offense is a pretty important checked box, I think. Everyone's performance in TC and preseason could change things, ofc, but for now I'm confident labeling Moncrief the favorite going into TC.

Btw: for a wide-receiver, Washington still looks stiff and too upright into his short and intermediate route breaks. I don't think it's an issue of craft; I fear he's just too high-cut.