Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

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sugbear65
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby sugbear65 » Sun Apr 28, 2019 5:01 am

NoRiskItNoBiscuit wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:38 am
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:58 pm
Blackstar110 wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:57 pm


explain it to me in lame man's terms
Let's nip this in the butt
I'd say this is a mute point
Lol he thought he’d get off scotch free, but his post didn’t pass mustard so now he gets his just deserves.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:02 am

ArrylT wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:56 pm
Ice wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:11 am

Now let's take a look at Harbaugh's system:
Passing:
2015 676 passing attempts Rank 1st in NFL
2016 679 passing attempts Rank 1st in NFL
2017 567 passing attempts Rank 11th in NFL
2018 554 passing attempts Rank 16th in the NFL.
Flaccos attempts from his first 4 seasons:

428
499
489
542

The Ravens did not consistently go over 550 attempts until his 6th season and forward.

I do not think it is fair to compare a Sophomore Lamar Jackson to a in his prime Joe Flacco (28-32).
Not comparing QB’s. They execute a system and do not have play call control.

How many games has Jackson played again? Jackson is responsible for executing an offense.

The Ravens just spent huge draft capital to help execute their system.

Not that difficult to see. League is becoming more about spacing and quickness in the passing game.

Jackson will either developed along with his new toys or be replaced.

Not at you but the bottom line is the fantasy community in general is off their rocker if they don’t think the Ravens will design, script, and run plays for M. Brown.

People can agree or disagree on Brown as a legit player but the Ravens draft was big red blinking light foreshadowing their intention .

Hell, it was a strobe light!
The clock is running and there are no timeouts

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Dynos » Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:29 am

i really doubt the ravens would have taken him in the 1st round if they didn't plan to use him on the 3 levels of the field.

otherwise they would have taken a guy like mecole hardman or andy isabella in the 2nd round just to stretch the field.

he should sees a lot of target. maybe not this year but eventually it should improve
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RB: E.Elliott,James Robinson, Chris Carson, L.Fournette, , Tony Pollard,Travis Homer,
WR: Justin Jefferson A.J Brown,M.Thomas, Marquise Brown, T.Lockett, D.Parker, P.Williams, Bryan Edwards, Marquez Callaway, Donovan Peoples-Jones,
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Blackstar110 » Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:58 am

What Ice just said above about the Ravens’ intentions is spot on IMO — they could not be more clearly trying to get a modern high-speed passing game in gear. Will it work? Dunno, but if Lamjack is as hopeless this year as he was last year slinging the rock, he’s gonna get replaced in pretty short order.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby ArrylT » Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:02 am

Ice wrote:
Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:02 am
ArrylT wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:56 pm
Ice wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:11 am

Now let's take a look at Harbaugh's system:
Passing:
2015 676 passing attempts Rank 1st in NFL
2016 679 passing attempts Rank 1st in NFL
2017 567 passing attempts Rank 11th in NFL
2018 554 passing attempts Rank 16th in the NFL.
Flaccos attempts from his first 4 seasons:

428
499
489
542

The Ravens did not consistently go over 550 attempts until his 6th season and forward.

I do not think it is fair to compare a Sophomore Lamar Jackson to a in his prime Joe Flacco (28-32).
Not comparing QB’s. They execute a system and do not have play call control.

How many games has Jackson played again? Jackson is responsible for executing an offense.

The Ravens just spent huge draft capital to help execute their system.

Not that difficult to see. League is becoming more about spacing and quickness in the passing game.

Jackson will either developed along with his new toys or be replaced.

Not at you but the bottom line is the fantasy community in general is off their rocker if they don’t think the Ravens will design, script, and run plays for M. Brown.

People can agree or disagree on Brown as a legit player but the Ravens draft was big red blinking light foreshadowing their intention .

Hell, it was a strobe light!
Yeah I am not arguing they will not have a plan to use Marquise Brown - simply noting that the play calling will likely start off more run based than pass based if Harbaughs history is to be believed. Your post containing the Ravens passing attempts in previous year, even if unintentionally, implied that this year the Ravens would revert right back to a 600+ type passing attack, and that just does not seem likely just due to the nature of developing Lamar Jackson. That is basically my only point and is in no way a critique of Marquise Brown himself.

Assuming all goes as planned, then yeah as the years continue the passing attempts will continue to increase & the potential for Brown to shine in the offence as well.

However I remain sceptical that Brown will have a large fantasy impact Year I - but that does not matter since this is dynasty - it only matters if an owner decides to draft Brown early and expects to lock in a WR1-2 season from the get-go like Odell Beckham or Michael Thomas. He should hopefully do enough to please owners for a breakout Year II but obviously that will be seen. If there are any stumbles there is definitely enough other talent that the Ravens can feature.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:22 am

Don’t disagree, my intent originally was based on 100 targets for Brown as opposed to the 50 or 60. Ideally, By year 3 I expect targets in the 130 plus range for this type of player. His development will dictate target share.

Think I probably mentioned somewhere 500 attempts was realistic.

The Ravens are going to have to throw it more than last year once Jackson took over to even compete.

Ravens drafted players to defeat Zone coverage because they know with their QB type defenders turning their back to QB is dangerous.

Teams will also blitz Jackson a lot and speed is critical to beat blitz packages.

Jackson is an enigma no doubt but given he isn’t as efficient as Wilson as an example he will need more passes than a player like him to effectively move the offense.

Think the Ravens will be interesting to watch.
The clock is running and there are no timeouts

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby ArrylT » Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:38 am

Ice wrote:
Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:22 am
Don’t disagree, my intent originally was based on 100 targets for Brown as opposed to the 50 or 60. Ideally, By year 3 I expect targets in the 130 plus range for this type of player. His development will dictate target share.

Think I probably mentioned somewhere 500 attempts was realistic.

The Ravens are going to have to throw it more than last year once Jackson took over to even compete.

Ravens drafted players to defeat Zone coverage because they know with their QB type defenders turning their back to QB is dangerous.

Teams will also blitz Jackson a lot and speed is critical to beat blitz packages.

Jackson is an enigma no doubt but given he isn’t as efficient as Wilson as an example he will need more passes than a player like him to effectively move the offense.

Think the Ravens will be interesting to watch.
Yeah sounds like we agree and were just coming from different angles then. :thumbup:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Titans95 » Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:53 am

Ice wrote:
Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:22 am
Don’t disagree, my intent originally was based on 100 targets for Brown as opposed to the 50 or 60. Ideally, By year 3 I expect targets in the 130 plus range for this type of player. His development will dictate target share.

Think I probably mentioned somewhere 500 attempts was realistic.

The Ravens are going to have to throw it more than last year once Jackson took over to even compete.

Ravens drafted players to defeat Zone coverage because they know with their QB type defenders turning their back to QB is dangerous.

Teams will also blitz Jackson a lot and speed is critical to beat blitz packages.

Jackson is an enigma no doubt but given he isn’t as efficient as Wilson as an example he will need more passes than a player like him to effectively move the offense.

Think the Ravens will be interesting to watch.
Not that it isn't possible, but I have a hard time believing Brown will ever consistently be in the 130 target range. I won't get into the whole Ravens and Lamar Jackson debate but looking at his only decent comp (Desean Jackson) he never eclipsed 130, he has 124/120/117 targets in his 3 best seasons and was hovering in the 85-100 range for the rest of his career. Unless Brown develops into a complete receiver like Hill did I just think taking 130 shots downfield to one player seems like a stretch unless you have a gunslinger like Mahomes or something.

I like brown for best ball purposes but if he's now going into the early 1st round of rookie drafts I'm not sure I want anything to do with him. Nothing is more frustrating than boom/bust WR's that you have to reply upon on a weekly basis.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:57 am

Brown is way closer to a Tyreek Hill or Antonio Brown than a D. Jackson type on game tape.

Don’t see that Comp at all when I break down his tape. Think you may be comping size and top end speed a bit too much personally.

No doubt, Brown has the wheels rip the lid off a defense but unlike Jackson he will force both Safeties deeper due to his route acumen IMO
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Blackstar110 » Sun Apr 28, 2019 8:41 am

Yeah, I’m fairly close to saying f*** it and drafting him 1.05. I really don’t love the landing, but boy do I love the player, and there aren’t exactly a ton of killer talent+landing combos. I doubt he makes it to me at 1.10 for my second pick.

If I could move back a few picks for him, awesome. Dunno if I can in this class, though.
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1QB, 2HB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLX **Adding additional superflex in 2021. Years under contract in parentheses. Two extensions and one franchise tag available per year**

QB: Mahomes (1), Stafford (4), Herbert (4)
HB: Cook (2), Sanders (3), Hunt (1), Montgomery (3), Hasty (1)
WR: Hopkins (1), Moore (2), Diontae Johnson (2), Higgins (4), Antonio Brown (2), John Brown (2), Miller (2), Mooney (1), Cooks (3), Mims (4), Edwards (4)
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Apr 28, 2019 8:49 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:27 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:22 pm
Statistically, there isn't. The only targets SF lost from last year are Pierre Garcon's 46. They added Jordan Matthews and Samuel, added Tevin Coleman, and get McKinnon back as well. The only thing that seems likely in that offense is that Kittle will continue to be fed.

Meanwhile in Baltimore, the Ravens have lost:

100 - Michael Crabtree
97 - John Brown
43 - Buck Allen

Right now, Brown projects to see more targets (if that's a factor in your evaluation)
I think you're overlooking that

- due to injuries, the starting WRs rotated all year in SF (which, incidentally, played a big part in Kittle racking up his numbers)
- SF played with backup QBs all year
- SF is already telling people they envision Deebo as a year one starter
- a three-man RB committee in SF doesn't mean there will be 3x as many targets for the RBs

If Deebo truly is a year one starter, then he is a solid bet to get the third most targets in SF, behind Kittle and Pettis. If he starts, he'll get more snaps than any of the individual RBs. Shanahan is not looking to be a run-first team with Garoppolo back. The wealth of options on the RB chart doesn't alter that; there's still only gonna be one of them on the field for most downs. They'll cannibalize each other's stat opportunities, not the WRs' opportunities.
I won't disagree that Samuel could be 3rd in targets on the 49ers. However, he's not walking into a situation where over 200 targets need to be replaced. Sure, you can talk about how Flacco is gone, but that's still a ton of targets left over. If Brown is healthy, he could definitely push to 90-100 targets. The Ravens did not add anyone else meaningful at WR. They'll likely try to get Marquise the ball a lot when they pass.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Dynos » Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:17 am

Blackstar110 wrote:
Sun Apr 28, 2019 8:41 am
Yeah, I’m fairly close to saying f*** it and drafting him 1.05. I really don’t love the landing, but boy do I love the player, and there aren’t exactly a ton of killer talent+landing combos. I doubt he makes it to me at 1.10 for my second pick.

If I could move back a few picks for him, awesome. Dunno if I can in this class, though.
i took him at 1.04. its certainly not playing with luck or rodgers. but he has opportunity.

the real question his, which side will you regret more?

pick him and he doesn't become good

or don't pick him and he becomes elite
2019 Champion!

Team 1: Superflex, Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex WR/TE,1 Sflex

QB:P. Mahomes, R.Tannehill, J.Hurts J. Garoppolo, Baker Mayfield
RB: E.Elliott,James Robinson, Chris Carson, L.Fournette, , Tony Pollard,Travis Homer,
WR: Justin Jefferson A.J Brown,M.Thomas, Marquise Brown, T.Lockett, D.Parker, P.Williams, Bryan Edwards, Marquez Callaway, Donovan Peoples-Jones,
TE: E.Engram, A.Hooper, Mo Alie-Cox,Dalton Keene,A.Firsker

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Titans95 » Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:28 am

Ice wrote:
Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:57 am
Brown is way closer to a Tyreek Hill or Antonio Brown than a D. Jackson type on game tape.

Don’t see that Comp at all when I break down his tape. Think you may be comping size and top end speed a bit too much personally.

No doubt, Brown has the wheels rip the lid off a defense but unlike Jackson he will force both Safeties deeper due to his route acumen IMO
I feel like Antonio brown and Tyreek hill are completely different receivers from one another....Hill was definitely coming into his own as a complete receiver and good route runner but his bread and butter was still speed..watching his tape you will notice half the time he's wide open on intermediate routes is because the corner GAVE him that separation because of the terror of Hill running right past him on a deep route. AB was fast enough but he wins with his ELITE route running.

My biggest issue with either comparison though is both of them are 20lbs heavier than Brown. We know a guy his size can win deep like Djax, we don't know a guy his size can be a truly completely receiver and run routes all over the field getting 130+ targets each year. We just don't have a comparable for that yet. Like I said it could definitely happen and players are constantly changing the NFL landscape all the time, Murray wouldn't even be drafted 20 years ago likely because of his size but now he's the 1.01 so I know Brown could definitely break the mold. I just think it's risky to be the pioneer by drafting Brown really high on a team that doesn't have a QB that's projected to be a prolific passer.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:04 am

Just remember that the game is about creating separation. When you get open at will, you'll make any QBs life easier.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:07 am

I just want to say that I got Marquise Brown @ 2.03

Maybe he still is the best value in the draft.
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