Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

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Factory of Sadness
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Factory of Sadness » Sat Apr 27, 2019 5:12 am

You're making Lamar an escape goat for a bad Ravens offence

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Apr 27, 2019 5:24 am

Vcize wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:12 pm
Blackstar110 wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:22 pm
Well... our boy's roller coaster of value probably just took another turn towards the mid-1st tonight, with how legendarily crappy the landing spots were.
Yeah why would anyone want a WR drafted in the 2nd round by SF, KC, Philly, Seattle, or Indy?
Because they're all worse at football. Drafting because of situation is a bad idea.

Seriously, if you're drafting Hardman and Campbell over Marquise, there's no chance you watched college football last season.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby PR0v3 » Sat Apr 27, 2019 5:32 am

Factory of Sadness wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 5:12 am
You're making Lamar an escape goat for a bad Ravens offence
Yea pretty dumb.

To me this landing spot is a blessing in the skies for us late first round drafters. Top WR drafted dropping? Yes please. I expect the Jackson/Brown connection to come out with a big ship on their shoulders.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Sat Apr 27, 2019 6:58 am

Factory of Sadness wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 5:12 am
You're making Lamar an escape goat for a bad Ravens offence
Best one.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:11 am

Servo wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:34 am
Ice wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:42 am
Last year the Ravens had 3 WR's at 95+ targets and two of them are gone.
Lamar Jackson takes over Week 10 vs. CIN, through the remaining 7 regular season games:

Crabtree - ~3.5 Targets per game X16 = 55 targets
Snead - ~3.7 Targets per game x16 = 60 targets
Brown - ~4.28 Targets per game x16 = 69 Targets
Andrews - ~2.6 Targets per game x16 = 41 Targets

I get what you're saying, but that means you're expecting an incredible jump in passing from Lamar Jackson...which from watching him last year...probably very optimstic. Although it would make no sense to just run Jackson into the ground for 16 games, it would still be a large shift in what made their team successful in 2018 to force him to throw significantly more per game. Not saying it can't happen but I don't feel like Jackson is someone who's going to start "slinging it" overnight.
Incredible Jump ? Not at all.

I get the fantasy community likes to go crazy this time year, it's natural and not an insult to you, it's just reality and we all do it.

Here are some points to consider:
We read posts all the time blasting people that project players in trades using the last 8 games as a marker but come draft day we will see posts like this that are really doing the same thing. We will claim a rookie QB is terrible because he can't throw it or utilizes what he does best when thrown in the mix like Jackson was last year.

JACKSON HAS STARTED 7 GAMES... Yes he didn't throw it a lot those games... I agree with that.

Now let's take a look at Harbaugh's system:
Passing:
2015 676 passing attempts Rank 1st in NFL
2016 679 passing attempts Rank 1st in NFL
2017 567 passing attempts Rank 11th in NFL
2018 554 passing attempts Rank 16th in the NFL.

It was obvious to all or should be that the Raven's WR group were a major weakness last year and they were struggling. They made an in season change and put in Jackson. The general consensus around here is the QB can't throw but then again his weapons were old, not elite, and now gone.

What have the Ravens done this Draft: Drafted a player that by all accounts can fly and has had GREAT production the last 2 years with NFL caliber QB's. Drafted a X WR that is a big target and can fly to put out wide on the other side.

People think this hurts M. Brown....That is pretty funny. Did Watkins hurt Tyreek? Did JuJu hurt Brown?

The point is not that Jackson will be a great QB's or even if the new WR's will be those mentioned. What it does show is the Raven's are bringing in serious weapons to get back to what Harbaugh likes to do to compete in the NFL. Harbaugh is not going to turn into Pete Carroll but they will be more balanced. That balance will come from WR weapons that have just exponentially increased team speed.

No secret M. Brown is my 2nd rated WR in this draft. His location is actually helped by the addition of Boykin as he can clear out defenders in his own right. Will Jackson grow into the job? Remains to be seen but it's obvious the Ravens are all in and now adding weapons to bolster their air attack.

IMO, passing on Brown is going to be a major mistake high in rookie drafts. He comps to the talent of T. Hill and A. Brown and he went to a system with a rich history of throwing the ball.

Making a decision over 7 starts vs years of a coaching system and offensive philosophy is the real INCREDIBLE JUMP and is looking at the pessimistic side as opposed to the reality of how the Raven's want to play in today's NFL.

Brown is still my #2 WR and could be the cream of this class. His stock should not be falling here; it should be rising given his actual location.

Imagine applying the same metric over 7 games with Jerry Rice over his first 7 games when he couldn't catch a cold with massive drops and everyone calling for his head or Payton Manning when he couldn't win a game as an example. (Not a comp but a mindset)

Jackson could fail and so could Brown but they will play in Harbaugh's system which is predicated on balance with tendency that leans towards passing the ball.

If any that rated M. Brown high but drops him in their rankings due to location they simply haven't studied the Raven's philosophy. The Ravens are telling everyone their intentions with their actions. They are loading up on WR's high in this draft with two start quality players in the impact start rounds which are 1 thru 3 in the NFL.

If you don't like the player Pass but if the decision is because of location then I contend the research is massively flawed.

Even though I am not drafting Boykin, his selection was actually great for M. Brown and L. Jackson owners should be absolutely ecstatic seeing the Raven's spend so much draft capital on two very good WR's which addressed their real weakness.
Last edited by Ice on Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Blackstar110 » Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:31 am

Vcize wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:12 pm
Blackstar110 wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:22 pm
Well... our boy's roller coaster of value probably just took another turn towards the mid-1st tonight, with how legendarily crappy the landing spots were.
Yeah why would anyone want a WR drafted in the 2nd round by SF, KC, Philly, Seattle, or Indy?
I more mean in terms of evaluating talent vs situation. The guys we evaluated as being Marquise’s tier as a talent all got boned except Harry.

I’m not ready to draft Hardman or Deebo over Marquise, that’s for damn sure.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby mild » Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:52 pm

NoRiskItNoBiscuit wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:38 am
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:58 pm
Blackstar110 wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:57 pm


explain it to me in lame man's terms
Let's nip this in the butt
I'd say this is a mute point
Scuse me while I kiss this guy

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby ninotoreS » Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:13 pm

Blackstar110 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:31 am
I’m not ready to draft Hardman or Deebo over Marquise, that’s for damn sure.
I'll take Deebo over Brown all day, and I say this is as one who still considers Pettis the present and future no. 1 in SF.

Hardman I need to look at. Way off my radar before now.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Hottoddies » Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:16 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:13 pm
Blackstar110 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:31 am
I’m not ready to draft Hardman or Deebo over Marquise, that’s for damn sure.
I'll take Deebo over Brown all day, and I say this is as one who still considers Pettis the present and future no. 1 in SF.

Hardman I need to look at. Way off my radar before now.
There's a good chance Deebo sees more targets than Brown.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:22 pm

Hottoddies wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:16 pm
ninotoreS wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:13 pm
Blackstar110 wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:31 am
I’m not ready to draft Hardman or Deebo over Marquise, that’s for damn sure.
I'll take Deebo over Brown all day, and I say this is as one who still considers Pettis the present and future no. 1 in SF.

Hardman I need to look at. Way off my radar before now.
There's a good chance Deebo sees more targets than Brown.
Statistically, there isn't. The only targets SF lost from last year are Pierre Garcon's 46. They added Jordan Matthews and Samuel, added Tevin Coleman, and get McKinnon back as well. The only thing that seems likely in that offense is that Kittle will continue to be fed.

Meanwhile in Baltimore, the Ravens have lost:

100 - Michael Crabtree
97 - John Brown
43 - Buck Allen

Right now, Brown projects to see more targets (if that's a factor in your evaluation)

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby ninotoreS » Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:27 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:22 pm
Statistically, there isn't. The only targets SF lost from last year are Pierre Garcon's 46. They added Jordan Matthews and Samuel, added Tevin Coleman, and get McKinnon back as well. The only thing that seems likely in that offense is that Kittle will continue to be fed.

Meanwhile in Baltimore, the Ravens have lost:

100 - Michael Crabtree
97 - John Brown
43 - Buck Allen

Right now, Brown projects to see more targets (if that's a factor in your evaluation)
I think you're overlooking that

- due to injuries, the starting WRs rotated all year in SF (which, incidentally, played a big part in Kittle racking up his numbers)
- SF played with backup QBs all year
- SF is already telling people they envision Deebo as a year one starter
- a three-man RB committee in SF doesn't mean there will be 3x as many targets for the RBs

If Deebo truly is a year one starter, then he is a solid bet to get the third most targets in SF, behind Kittle and Pettis. If he starts, he'll get more snaps than any of the individual RBs. Shanahan is not looking to be a run-first team with Garoppolo back. The wealth of options on the RB chart doesn't alter that; there's still only gonna be one of them on the field for most downs. They'll cannibalize each other's stat opportunities, not the WRs' opportunities.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Hottoddies » Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:40 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:22 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:16 pm
ninotoreS wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:13 pm


I'll take Deebo over Brown all day, and I say this is as one who still considers Pettis the present and future no. 1 in SF.

Hardman I need to look at. Way off my radar before now.
There's a good chance Deebo sees more targets than Brown.
Statistically, there isn't. The only targets SF lost from last year are Pierre Garcon's 46. They added Jordan Matthews and Samuel, added Tevin Coleman, and get McKinnon back as well. The only thing that seems likely in that offense is that Kittle will continue to be fed.

Meanwhile in Baltimore, the Ravens have lost:

100 - Michael Crabtree
97 - John Brown
43 - Buck Allen

Right now, Brown projects to see more targets (if that's a factor in your evaluation)
They also lost Joe Flacco. This will be a different offense this year.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby ArrylT » Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:56 pm

Ice wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:11 am

Now let's take a look at Harbaugh's system:
Passing:
2015 676 passing attempts Rank 1st in NFL
2016 679 passing attempts Rank 1st in NFL
2017 567 passing attempts Rank 11th in NFL
2018 554 passing attempts Rank 16th in the NFL.
Flaccos attempts from his first 4 seasons:

428
499
489
542

The Ravens did not consistently go over 550 attempts until his 6th season and forward.

I do not think it is fair to compare a Sophomore Lamar Jackson to a in his prime Joe Flacco (28-32).
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby ArrylT » Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:01 pm

Lamar Jackson never went over 25 attempts in Year I*. Even if you establish that as his floor for attempts in Year II that is 400 attempts. To get to 500 he needs to average 31. To get to 550 approx 35. To get to 600 he'll need approx 38 attempts per game. I think Lamar Jackson will develop but I simply cannot see a QB who never had 25+ attempts in Year I to suddenly jump to 35+ attempts in Year II.


* - except in the lone playoff game where he got 29
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby jordanzs » Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:26 pm

So in a league that’s 1ppr and also gives 3 points to 20 yard rushes and 40 yard receptions; where do you rank brown? Is he going to be ahead of the curve on those long play bonuses in relation to the other WRs and RBs in this tier?


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