Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

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Cameron Giles
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:20 am

JFever wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:12 am
djeternal2 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:03 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:40 am

I still don't get how the first WR taken in the NFL Draft is a 2nd round rookie pick in fantasy. There just isn't any way that there are 12 better prospects than him in a class that isn't good to begin with.

We'll see what happens today, but at some point the fantasy community has to catch up to the WR that generated the most first round buzz in this class.
Be careful putting too much stock in the first WR taken in the NFL draft.

2012 - Justin Blackmon
2013 - Tavon Austin
2014 - Sammy Watkins
2015 - Amari Cooper
2016 - Corey Coleman
2017 - Corey Davis
2018 - DJ Moore

Not exactly a list of world beaters. So far best of the list is Amari and it drops off pretty heavily after that in terms of fantasy stats which is what we are talking about here.
:clap: People see what they want to see at times and an NFL (good pick) isn't always a Fantasy good pick. People are making connections to fit their opinion. Things aren't so just because you'd like them to be so. This landing spot is atrocious and one of the worst that could have happened. Projecting L.Miller to throw 500 times is a big big reach and it screams "wishful thinking" and - it simultaneously goes against the offensive philosophy currently in place.
Again, the issue with this thinking is that this is not a deep skill position draft. And considering that the main goal of a rookie draft is to draft the best prospects, it's egregious to consider a first round WR as a 2nd round fantasy pick.

Brown was 2.04 predraft and NFL evaluators basically told you that you were wrong. So, why would you still continue to believe you're right? He was the first WR off the board despite not going through combine testing. He wasn't even Top 5 predraft on DLF :lol:

I'm not saying he should unanimously be 1.01 or something, but he's at least a mid 1st in a standard 12 team PPR. The NFL just did the homework for you.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby jenkins.math » Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:29 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:20 am
Again, the issue with this thinking is that this is not a deep skill position draft. And considering that the main goal of a rookie draft is to draft the best prospects, it's egregious to consider a first round WR as a 2nd round fantasy pick.

Brown was 2.04 predraft and NFL evaluators basically told you that you were wrong. So, why would you still continue to believe you're right? He was the first WR off the board despite not going through combine testing. He wasn't even Top 5 predraft on DLF :lol:

I'm not saying he should unanimously be 1.01 or something, but he's at least a mid 1st in a standard 12 team PPR. The NFL just did the homework for you.
While I may disagree with Cam and others on what Hollywood Brown's NFL ceiling and future is, I fully agree that I don't see any way that he falls to the 2nd round of a rookie draft. I mean when is the last time that the first WR off the board went in the 2nd round of a rookie draft? Especially considering this is a weak fantasy class.

I'm not sure that he will be a sure fire top 6 pick, but I don't see him making it past 10.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby PTW32 » Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:31 am

JFever wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:12 am
djeternal2 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:03 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:40 am

I still don't get how the first WR taken in the NFL Draft is a 2nd round rookie pick in fantasy. There just isn't any way that there are 12 better prospects than him in a class that isn't good to begin with.

We'll see what happens today, but at some point the fantasy community has to catch up to the WR that generated the most first round buzz in this class.
Be careful putting too much stock in the first WR taken in the NFL draft.

2012 - Justin Blackmon
2013 - Tavon Austin
2014 - Sammy Watkins
2015 - Amari Cooper
2016 - Corey Coleman
2017 - Corey Davis
2018 - DJ Moore

Not exactly a list of world beaters. So far best of the list is Amari and it drops off pretty heavily after that in terms of fantasy stats which is what we are talking about here.
:clap: People see what they want to see at times and an NFL (good pick) isn't always a Fantasy good pick. People are making connections to fit their opinion. Things aren't so just because you'd like them to be so. This landing spot is atrocious and one of the worst that could have happened. Projecting L.Miller to throw 500 times is a big big reach and it screams "wishful thinking" and - it simultaneously goes against the offensive philosophy currently in place.
Well, L.Miller is a running back so 500 throws would be alot
Team 1 10 Team PPR QB, 2RB, 3WR, 2TE, 3Flex

QB: Feilds, Lance, Stafford
RB: Javonte, Charbonnet
WR: Godwin, Boyd, Aiyuk, Mingo, Downs
TE: Kincaid, Kraft, Schoonmaker

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QB: Lamar, Baker
RB: Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Ekeler, Sanders, Dillon, Pierce
WR: Diggs, Hill, Lockett, Addison
TE: Andrews, Hurst, Logan Thomas

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:42 am

Jigga94 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:49 am 100 targets will probably happen.

I don't play in any points per target leagues though

I don't play in target leagues either but targets are at least an indicator I look at and project. 100 targets are not outlandish IMO given the big boy WR's are over 160 targets and WR1's are in the 130 plus range.

100 targets is 2-3 tiers below Uber studs which is why I think it will happen.

Last year the Ravens had 3 WR's at 95+ targets and two of them are gone.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Monkey » Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:50 am

Ice wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:42 am
Jigga94 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:49 am 100 targets will probably happen.

I don't play in any points per target leagues though

I don't play in target leagues either but targets are at least an indicator I look at and project. 100 targets are not outlandish IMO given the big boy WR's are over 160 targets and WR1's are in the 130 plus range.

100 targets is 2-3 tiers below Uber studs which is why I think it will happen.

Last year the Ravens had 3 WR's at 95+ targets and two of them are gone.
I'm not a fan of Marquise myself, but using targets as a measure is completely valid. Volume is a huge factor.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Servo » Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:34 am

Ice wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:42 am Last year the Ravens had 3 WR's at 95+ targets and two of them are gone.
Lamar Jackson takes over Week 10 vs. CIN, through the remaining 7 regular season games:

Crabtree - ~3.5 Targets per game X16 = 55 targets
Snead - ~3.7 Targets per game x16 = 60 targets
Brown - ~4.28 Targets per game x16 = 69 Targets
Andrews - ~2.6 Targets per game x16 = 41 Targets

I get what you're saying, but that means you're expecting an incredible jump in passing from Lamar Jackson...which from watching him last year...probably very optimstic. Although it would make no sense to just run Jackson into the ground for 16 games, it would still be a large shift in what made their team successful in 2018 to force him to throw significantly more per game. Not saying it can't happen but I don't feel like Jackson is someone who's going to start "slinging it" overnight.
Last edited by Servo on Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:38 am

I think people are forgetting that for all intensive purposes; the initial plan was for Jackson to sit and learn for a year.

I expect a full off season as the 1 will help a lot; rather than training with the 2s and being thrust in as the 1.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Mr. Wizard » Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:57 pm

Phaded wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:38 am for all intensive purposes
explain it to me in lame man's terms
12 Team RealitySportsOnline League, Half-PPR, TEP, Half-PPFD

1QB, 2HB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX, 1SFX **Years under contract in parentheses. Two extensions and one franchise tag available per year.**

QB: Mahomes (2), Burrow (2), Young (3)
HB: Saquon (3), Gibbs (4), Henry (1), Hunt (1), Mattison (1)
WR: Chase (3), Tyreek (4), Kupp (3), Aiyuk (4), Pierce (2)
TE: Kelce (2), Njoku (1)
IR:
Future Picks: 24 2nd, 3rd, 4th: 25 4th: 26 2nd, 3rd, 4th
--
12 Team Dynasty League, Half-PPR
1QB, 2HB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLX, 1 SFX

QB: Hurts, Prescott, Geno,
HB: Bijan, Taylor, Conner, Gibson, B. Robinson, Herbert, Achane, Miller, Damien Harris,
WR: AJB, Allen, Jeudy, Nuk, Cooks, Davis, Claypool, Shakir
TE: Goedert, Knox, Dulcich, Otton
IR:
Future Picks: 1.06, 2.06, 3.05

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:08 pm

Blackstar110 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:57 pm
Phaded wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:38 am for all intensive purposes
explain it to me in lame man's terms
:lol:

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:11 pm

Blackstar110 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:57 pm
Phaded wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:38 am for all intensive purposes
explain it to me in lame man's terms
lol

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:14 pm

Phaded wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:38 am I think people are forgetting that for all intensive purposes; the initial plan was for Jackson to sit and learn for a year.

I expect a full off season as the 1 will help a lot; rather than training with the 2s and being thrust in as the 1.
Have to agree.

Still can’t believe so many think 100 targets is a lot.

Anyone that knows defense knows tons of man coverage is dangerous for a QB like Jackson. When he breaks containment the backs have there back to him.

The Ravens know this and teams I guarantee are going to incorporate more zone.

When one looks at Brown it is obvious he can run by so teams will play off him a lot. He is not just a deep threat player.

Year 2 will be interesting and while there most likely will be plenty of runs, he is going to have to throw quite a bit. Brown gives them screen options and quick slants and the ability to take the lid off.

No way they drafted him in round 1 to be a decoy.

One can hate the QB and the WR but I have no doubt they will design plays, a lot of plays around Brown.

He is a very polished player overall.

One can argue size, injury risk and Qb but the Ravens put their chips in the middle around this kid and I would be shocked if he is not a week 1 starter with multiple plays every game designed around his skill set.

Designing 6 to 10 plays a game around his skill set isn’t that many. It better not be or they will get run over by the other power teams in the division,

The Ravens won the division last year with a rookie QB. They will be in the mix again most likely but will need to be two dimensional and are drafting weapons to be that.

Being Two dimensional is their coaches DNA 🧬
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Mr. Wizard » Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:22 pm

Well... our boy's roller coaster of value probably just took another turn towards the mid-1st tonight, with how legendarily crappy the landing spots were.
12 Team RealitySportsOnline League, Half-PPR, TEP, Half-PPFD

1QB, 2HB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX, 1SFX **Years under contract in parentheses. Two extensions and one franchise tag available per year.**

QB: Mahomes (2), Burrow (2), Young (3)
HB: Saquon (3), Gibbs (4), Henry (1), Hunt (1), Mattison (1)
WR: Chase (3), Tyreek (4), Kupp (3), Aiyuk (4), Pierce (2)
TE: Kelce (2), Njoku (1)
IR:
Future Picks: 24 2nd, 3rd, 4th: 25 4th: 26 2nd, 3rd, 4th
--
12 Team Dynasty League, Half-PPR
1QB, 2HB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLX, 1 SFX

QB: Hurts, Prescott, Geno,
HB: Bijan, Taylor, Conner, Gibson, B. Robinson, Herbert, Achane, Miller, Damien Harris,
WR: AJB, Allen, Jeudy, Nuk, Cooks, Davis, Claypool, Shakir
TE: Goedert, Knox, Dulcich, Otton
IR:
Future Picks: 1.06, 2.06, 3.05

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Vcize » Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:12 pm

Blackstar110 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:22 pm Well... our boy's roller coaster of value probably just took another turn towards the mid-1st tonight, with how legendarily crappy the landing spots were.
Yeah why would anyone want a WR drafted in the 2nd round by SF, KC, Philly, Seattle, or Indy?
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RB: Barkley, Mixon, Jav Williams, Pierce, Drake
WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
TE: Kittle, Goedert

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:58 pm

Blackstar110 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:57 pm
Phaded wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:38 am for all intensive purposes
explain it to me in lame man's terms
Let's nip this in the butt
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:38 am

Orenthal Shames wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:58 pm
Blackstar110 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:57 pm
Phaded wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:38 am for all intensive purposes
explain it to me in lame man's terms
Let's nip this in the butt
I'd say this is a mute point


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