Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

[Jason3123]

You do realize the Ravens threw it 556 times last year. That was right in the middle of the pack. Thinking Brown will only get 50 or 60 targets borders on ridiculous IMO.

100 Targets is less than a 20% target share and is actually quite conservative IMO.

Targets are not receptions in case you misunderstood my post.

The Ravens threw 556 times. Lamar Jackson threw 198 times. In half those games. He will not throw the ball 550 times.

I get They may not throw as much but it is laughable if you really believe the Jackson will not increase attempts this season. Pretty sure they will come in very close to the 500 attempts number which will be just over 30 attempts per game.

100 targets is 6.25 per game. Breakdown where you actually think those targets will come from with that cast of characters

What data or evidence do you have that points to them throwing 500 times with Lamar Jackson as their QB? Other than your hunch or assumptions. I’ll wait.

[Ice]

The Ravens threw 556 times. Lamar Jackson threw 198 times. In half those games. He will not throw the ball 550 times.

I get They may not throw as much but it is laughable if you really believe the Jackson will not increase attempts this season. Pretty sure they will come in very close to the 500 attempts number which will be just over 30 attempts per game.

100 targets is 6.25 per game. Breakdown where you actually think those targets will come from with that cast of characters

What data or evidence do you have that points to them throwing 500 times with Lamar Jackson as their QB? Other than your hunch or assumptions. I’ll wait.

Really? Obviously it is a projection but the least throwing team last year was Seattle at 427. Buffalo ranked 28th in the league at 499 attempts.

Michael F'n Crabtree had 100 targets last year. Pretty sure Brown will be far more dynamic than Crabtree in the passing game next season.

It's not like 100 targets is a lot given 28 WR's had 100 plus last season. If Brown isn't the first option on the Ravens who do you think is?

[Mr. Wizard]

I didn't like Hollywood as a prospect (maybe a late 1st, but I doubt he falls there)
I don't like this landing spot for his fantasy value (definite 2nd rounder for me)
I don't like this as a Ravens fan

I still don't get how the first WR taken in the NFL Draft is a 2nd round rookie pick in fantasy. There just isn't any way that there are 12 better prospects than him in a class that isn't good to begin with.

We'll see what happens today, but at some point the fantasy community has to catch up to the WR that generated the most first round buzz in this class.

Oh yeah, no chance he should go that late, but mid-late first seems likely whereas with a good spot he could’ve jumped huge.

[Jason3123]

You are looking at season long stats. Once Lamar Jackson became QB it became an entirely different offense because he isn't as good a passer as Flacco. Flacco was airing the ball out like crazy, never attempting less than 37 passes in a single game. Lamar never attempted more than 26 except for the playoff game where he threw 29 times. Those targets for those WR's came from Flacco, not Lamar. The Ravens will be one of the lowest volume offenses with Lamar Jackson at QB. Now if he gets hurt, or benched, maybe the volume will trend back up. Lamar Jackson is not that QB. As previously mentioned in other posts, nobody was on a pace anywhere remotely close to 100 targets with Lamar Jackson at QB.

[Ice]

You are looking at season long stats. Once Lamar Jackson became QB it became an entirely different offense because he isn't as good a passer as Flacco. Flacco was airing the ball out like crazy, never attempting less than 37 passes in a single game. Lamar never attempted more than 26 except for the playoff game where he threw 29 times. Those targets for those WR's came from Flacco, not Lamar. The Ravens will be one of the lowest volume offenses with Lamar Jackson at QB. Now if he gets hurt, or benched, maybe the volume will trend back up. Lamar Jackson is not that QB. As previously mentioned in other posts, nobody was on a pace anywhere remotely close to 100 targets with Lamar Jackson at QB.

Opinions Vary; Time will tell. The Ravens just drafted their #1 WR that excels in route diversity. We simply disagree. I see improvement in the passing game and know a 6.25 target rate for a teams #1 is not that many.

Obviously if you don't think he is going to be their #1 then I could see your point.

Amazing how so many never consider QB improvement year over year. Personally, I believe Brown may come close to 80 receptions as a rookie. I expect a lot of very short passes given motion and off coverage as teams respect his speed.

One thing is a near certainty. Teams will have to adjust to zone coverage given Jackson's wheels at QB. Man coverage is death trying to contain running QB's. There will be a ton of short and intermediate plays exploiting zone coverage.

This selection if nothing else shows that the Ravens are going to implement counter measures to more zone coverage as speed kills in zone coverage. Brown offers offensive diversity and the Ravens coaching staff are not idiots. They know teams will change things to contain Jackson's wheels.

I am near certain if Brown stays healthy he will catch at minimum 50-60 passes which we all know Jackson won't complete 100% of his throws.

I stand buy 100 targets for this player as a rookie given their weapons.

[Jason3123]

I think you’re being outlandish optimistic, just like your Metcalf takes, but hey I hope you’re right. I have a ton of Mark Andrews so the better Jackson gets the better it is for me. In a league where coaches limit Russell Wilson, Tyrod never threw more than 436 times, Mariota couldn’t reach the 500 threshold. I just don’t envision Jackson ever being a volume passer, but I also don’t think he’s very good. We shall see.

[Ice]

I think you’re being outlandish optimistic, just like your Metcalf takes, but hey I hope you’re right. I have a ton of Mark Andrews so the better Jackson gets the better it is for me. In a league where coaches limit Russell Wilson, Tyrod never threw more than 436 times, Mariota couldn’t reach the 500 threshold. I just don’t envision Jackson ever being a volume passer, but I also don’t think he’s very good. We shall see.

No worries, I think your head is stuck in the sand always looking backward so I consider "Outlandish" as a compliment coming from you! We shall see!

[Jason3123]

I think you’re being outlandish optimistic, just like your Metcalf takes, but hey I hope you’re right. I have a ton of Mark Andrews so the better Jackson gets the better it is for me. In a league where coaches limit Russell Wilson, Tyrod never threw more than 436 times, Mariota couldn’t reach the 500 threshold. I just don’t envision Jackson ever being a volume passer, but I also don’t think he’s very good. We shall see.

No worries, I think your head is stuck in the sand always looking backward so I consider "Outlandish" as a compliment coming from you! We shall see!

My head is stuck looking at data and facts, not fantasizing like yours.

[Jigga94]

100 targets will probably happen.

I don't play in any points per target leagues though

[Phaded]

It is also worth noting the Ravens D took some lumps. They will have to pass more.

[Jigga94]

It is also worth noting the Ravens D took some lumps. They will have to pass more.

I agree but I don't think it makes much of a difference. Sure you could say we lost Mosley, Weddle and Suggs!

But realistically, Suggs is at the end of the line, we got better with Earl Thomas and losing Mosley definitely hurts, but I hope they find someone a little better on coverage.

Overall, I guess the defense doesn't look as good right now, but I'm not about to say that makes a difference for the rookie WR they just drafted. This is dynasty after all

[Cult of Dionysus]

Brown is mercurial talent.

[themburns]

I still don't get how the first WR taken in the NFL Draft is a 2nd round rookie pick in fantasy. There just isn't any way that there are 12 better prospects than him in a class that isn't good to begin with.

We'll see what happens today, but at some point the fantasy community has to catch up to the WR that generated the most first round buzz in this class.

Be careful putting too much stock in the first WR taken in the NFL draft.

2012 - Justin Blackmon
2013 - Tavon Austin
2014 - Sammy Watkins
2015 - Amari Cooper
2016 - Corey Coleman
2017 - Corey Davis
2018 - DJ Moore

Not exactly a list of world beaters. So far best of the list is Amari and it drops off pretty heavily after that in terms of fantasy stats which is what we are talking about here.

Let's continue that list a little bit, shall we?
2011- AJ Green
2010- Demaryius Thomas
2009- Darrius Heyward Bey
2008- Donny Avery (3 picks later, Jordy Nelson)
2007- Calvin Johnson
2006- Santonio Holmes

Draft capital matters. Coleman, Austin, and Blackmon busted. (As did DHB and Avery). But for Blackmon, it wasn't lack of talent, he could play. (As could Santonio when he was not blazed.) The situations of those players were atrocious. The 1st WR is a decent benchmark, especially when taking the organization they landed into account. Hindsight is 20/20, but Austin was a gadget player for a luddite coach, Coleman a confluence of awful coaching, awful QBs, poor motivation etc.

My only caveats in this circumstance are Brown's physical profile (too light for the NFL?) and Baltimore as an organization has been sub-par at WR scouting for some time. (The most effective WR the franchise has drafted in its 20 year history appears to be Brandon Stokley.) Still, Brown has to be considered in the mid-1st in rookie drafts.

[Jfever]

I still don't get how the first WR taken in the NFL Draft is a 2nd round rookie pick in fantasy. There just isn't any way that there are 12 better prospects than him in a class that isn't good to begin with.

We'll see what happens today, but at some point the fantasy community has to catch up to the WR that generated the most first round buzz in this class.

Be careful putting too much stock in the first WR taken in the NFL draft.

2012 - Justin Blackmon
2013 - Tavon Austin
2014 - Sammy Watkins
2015 - Amari Cooper
2016 - Corey Coleman
2017 - Corey Davis
2018 - DJ Moore

Not exactly a list of world beaters. So far best of the list is Amari and it drops off pretty heavily after that in terms of fantasy stats which is what we are talking about here.

People see what they want to see at times and an NFL (good pick) isn't always a Fantasy good pick. People are making connections to fit their opinion. Things aren't so just because you'd like them to be so. This landing spot is atrocious and one of the worst that could have happened. Projecting L.Miller to throw 500 times is a big big reach and it screams "wishful thinking" and - it simultaneously goes against the offensive philosophy currently in place.

[Mr. Wizard]

I still don’t like this spot, but the remaining landing spots might determine if I try to move down a bit to draft Marquise. I don’t think I’ll be taking him outright at 1.05.

Got a guy with 1.08 who may be looking to move up, though...