Buy Low/Sell High

[tombonneau]

I was listening to a podcast the other night (I dont remember which one) and one of the guys on there suggested that the bigger threat to Duke was Jarvis Landry. His theory was that last season Duke was basically the Browns slot WR and that this year Landry would soak up a lot of those underneath targets that went to Duke last year.

I don't know how true it is but it sounds plausible to me.

Yeah I'd read this theory as well. The rebutal is Haley is the new OC and he loves throwing to backs. Of course, Browns passing game pie could expand by 20% and it's a zero sum game for all parties.

A previous poster does give me pause though re: the recent history of 3DBs and how they flash then sort of fade away.

Either way, I think the owner is feeling the same as you all on this thread, as my initial entry level offer (mid-late 2019 third + rookie wr prospect) is under serious consideration.

Edit:
Some good stats and info here, albeit with no definitive conclusion.

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/ ... -cleveland

He does draw interesting comparison to Haley's 2011 KC RB trio though.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

If im buying low on a Patriots WR its Jordan Matthews. Still only 25 ( i know...i was shocked too), and has played and thrived in the slot WR role. Averaged over 100 targets and 80 Receptions a year in Philly. Last year in Buffalo he was done in my his knee. If his knee is fully healed from December surgery, it wont surprise me if Matthews is given the first shot to fill the Edelman role. No Cooks, no Amendola, Mitchell cant stay healthy, Britt is a has been, Dorsett is a never was been. Gronk will do Gronky things, Hogan will fill the outside Cooks role, and Matthews will roam the middle of the field creating matchup nightmares for slot CBs around the league.

too bad he has feet for hands.

[Pew Dogs]

Maybe this could be it's own thread, but I think a general rule might be ... whenever a player changes team ... sell. I know there will be examples where this isnt the case, but I wonder what the stats would show. Has anyone ever seen a comprehensive analysis of this?

[Pullo Vision]

Had a discussion about Tyler Lockett and Seattle's WR corps in another thread. This bit about Jaron Brown seems more fitting here- http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/8 ... sheet?pg=2

[sugbear65]

Buy Elijah McGuire low while it’s still cheap. He’s going to end up the PPR RB to own for the Jets, and on that offense with such weak WRs/TE, I think upwards of 60+ receptions is a possibility. Powell is ok, but with him being in his last year of his contract and unlikely to be resigned, coupled with the Jets need to look for the future, means Elijah takes that job sooner than later. Crow and Rawls are just JAG pounders and not a threat to the PPR role, though they will surely vulture some TDs(if Jets can even manage a red zone trip).

Edit- I forgot to add any sell highs. Based just in personal belief and evaluations, some of the biggest for me would be McCaffrey, Mixon, Evan Engram

[joeya2001]

Buy Elijah McGuire low while it’s still cheap. He’s going to end up the PPR RB to own for the Jets, and on that offense with such weak WRs/TE, I think upwards of 60+ receptions is a possibility. Powell is ok, but with him being in his last year of his contract and unlikely to be resigned, coupled with the Jets need to look for the future, means Elijah takes that job sooner than later. Crow and Rawls are just JAG pounders and not a threat to the PPR role, though they will surely vulture some TDs(if Jets can even manage a red zone trip).

Edit- I forgot to add any sell highs. Based just in personal belief and evaluations, some of the biggest for me would be McCaffrey, Mixon, Evan Engram

I do agree with the , Jets didnt draft a RB and I read that Powell may be cut.

[pvillebiker]

If im buying low on a Patriots WR its Jordan Matthews. Still only 25 ( i know...i was shocked too), and has played and thrived in the slot WR role. Averaged over 100 targets and 80 Receptions a year in Philly. Last year in Buffalo he was done in my his knee. If his knee is fully healed from December surgery, it wont surprise me if Matthews is given the first shot to fill the Edelman role. No Cooks, no Amendola, Mitchell cant stay healthy, Britt is a has been, Dorsett is a never was been. Gronk will do Gronky things, Hogan will fill the outside Cooks role, and Matthews will roam the middle of the field creating matchup nightmares for slot CBs around the league.

^ this - been thinking the same thing. Lots of reasons to doubt J-Matt, but if he is really healthy and seizes the opportunity, one has to wonder if he becomes the Pat's replacement plan for Edelman down the road. How old is Julian again? Hey, it could happen. Then again... maybe not.

[DLF3000]

I'm cautiously optimistic on J Matt too - got him late last season when his value was circling the drain.

At the same time, might move on if the Pats barely look his way in September.

Definitely a hero/zero situation.

[joeya2001]

I just picked up J-Matt, he was hanging around in the FA, looking at his stats if healthy I can see him putting up solid numbers.

Solid size 6'3 210

2014 67-872-8 on 103 Targets
2015 85-997-8 on 127 Targets
2016 73-804-3 on 117 Targets
2017 Hurt
so he does have a pretty successful history

[Ice]

I just picked up J-Matt, he was hanging around in the FA, looking at his stats if healthy I can see him putting up solid numbers.

Solid size 6'3 210

2014 67-872-8 on 103 Targets
2015 85-997-8 on 127 Targets
2016 73-804-3 on 117 Targets
2017 Hurt
so he does have a pretty successful history

While he wasn't the picture of the health last year he played in 10 games and had 36 targets. He signed a 1 year 1 million dollar contract. He has separation issues.

I guess you could say he is a buy low player but in reality he is FA type quality. Don't expect much out of this player.

[joeya2001]

I just picked up J-Matt, he was hanging around in the FA, looking at his stats if healthy I can see him putting up solid numbers.

Solid size 6'3 210

2014 67-872-8 on 103 Targets
2015 85-997-8 on 127 Targets
2016 73-804-3 on 117 Targets
2017 Hurt
so he does have a pretty successful history

While he wasn't the picture of the health last year he played in 10 games and had 36 targets. He signed a 1 year 1 million dollar contract. He has separation issues.

I guess you could say he is a buy low player but in reality he is FA type quality. Don't expect much out of this player.

I do feel they brought him in or a reason and didn't draft and WR

through the 1s 4 weeks

you will have Gronk Hogan and ??? where I think that's when he will have a opportunity.

when week 5 and on

Edelman Hogan Gronk and WR 3 is open, so if he shows something he could have a role going forward.

Then for dynasty purposes. If the Pats move on from Edelman next season, they could resign a younger WR in Matthews at 26.

For a guy so cheap and a situation that could happen its 100% worth the gamble.

[Ice]

They have Dorsett and Malcolm Mithchell, They also traded for C. Patterson. The Pats seem to have a pretty complex system and with Brady the WR's need to really know their routes and some acceleration is critical. He could end up being serviceable. I think Mitchell who should be 100% by camp has a good chance to pass him personally. Dorsett and Mathews could be in a fight to make the team.

The Bills didn't want him anymore than Philly.

Agree he is worth a shot if the price is really low. Maybe he bounces back.

[saw061600]

There is a lesson to be learned from the current Hill drama; sell high and buy low. We're all really good at trying to buy low, even though we all sometimes buy high. However, I think MOST fantasy owners have a very hard time selling high. We get excited, justifiably so, at having a top asset that can potentially win us the championship (Gurley 2 years ago). But then, we fail to cash out for double the rewards: high draft picks AND quality players.

As soon as Hill started hitting "#1 Fantasy Asset, #1 Fantasy WR" status, owners that follow the sell high buy low belief should have looked to cash out. Apply the lesson to this and future years. If your top asset begins to generate hype that reaches fanatical proportions, sell high and increase roster capital. Get a top 20 WR and pick(s) for that #1 WR.

[bjd5211]

You're right, but I'm still not trading Saquon Barkley lol.

[Pac_Eddy]

Sometimes true.

If you believe the guy can maintain top 4 status for a few years, I ride him out. If I think his current status can't be maintained, then sell.