DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Phaded » Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:34 pm

Why would you quote Michael Irvin? He is about as knowledgeable an analyst as your average joe on these boards.

One of the biggest problems with comparing Metcalf to Julio & Calvin is both Julio & Calvin had more catches in their junior year than Metcalf had his entire college career.

There are a lot of receivers who are more athletic but Evans was elite in college, both the tape AND the stats.

Again, big difference between an athlete and a receiver.

The sample size is far too small. He is a situational deep threat at best as it stands right now who will get taken away by NFL-caliber defenses without much of an issue until he develops.

He is exceedingly raw with limited playing experience and the statistics are concerning.

Someone early was asking about odds he is a stud.

I would put the odds of being a stud around 10%, a usable asset around 50% and a flat-out bust at 40%.

I understand the reason for the hype because "omg athleticism" but there are some massive red flags that are difficult to ignore.

You are pounding the table for a receiver who has a career high of 39 receptions in a season and 67 receptions in his career. Again, he is a very limited and situational deep threat. If you can point me to a first round receiver with that profile who had a lot of success, I'll listen.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby tresskid84 » Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:17 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:47 pm
Well there are two things that will make him a great receiver, hands and routes. And he has the hands already. Dude knows how to catch a football. Will he improve his routes? My guess is yes. It's easier to add a few routes than to improve your hands, something some of the other big/fast dudes needed to do, but couldn't.
Stats don't agree, lol. He can make a spectacular catch, yes, but his drop rate (10.3%) was terrible.
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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby whodunnit » Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:19 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:09 pm
Where to do you guys rank his hands on scale of 1-10?
A 4. I didn't think they were that great.

And, well I guess if Irvin says he's the next Julio Il automatically move him up my boards... :crazy:
Watson Goff Trubisky Rosen *Luck
A.Jones Ingram Gurley Conner R.Jones Robinson
Hill Golladay Boykin Williams Renfrow Lamb Reagor Pittman Shenault Doctson Tr.Smith O.Johnson
Hockenson Hollister Knox Kmet Eifert
Allen Watt Armstead Beasley Barnett Collier
Judon Chubb Jones P.Smith Takitaki Whitehead
Savage Jackson Ward
PS: Newman, Jamie (QB) Borghi, Max (RB) Brown, Journey (RB) Wallace, Tylan (WR) Surratt, Sage (WR)


Mayfield Winston Jones Rudolph
Henry Gurley Jacobs Montgomery McKinnon Pollard Procise Burkhead
Hopkins Kupp Ridley AJG
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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:44 pm

Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 1:37 pm
I can respect that viewpoint. I don’t actually agree with some given several routes he runs very well but based on your criteria for fantasy I can appreciate the perspective.

I will say separation is certainly not an issue in press or off coverage which is what the scouts will weigh heavily as opposed to short area quickness.

I actually look at your metrics when evaluating a slot type player that also shows ability on jet sweep type plays.

D.K. Is certainly not a T. Hill type. My #2 WR certainly is!
Just for reference:

Image

He's got work to do.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:46 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:47 pm
Well there are two things that will make him a great receiver, hands and routes. And he has the hands already. Dude knows how to catch a football. Will he improve his routes? My guess is yes. It's easier to add a few routes than to improve your hands, something some of the other big/fast dudes needed to do, but couldn't.
If that's the criteria, Metcalf currently has neither. He dropped 7 out of 74 catchable passes. Only Hakeem Butler had more.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:12 pm

tresskid84 wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:17 pm
Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:47 pm
Well there are two things that will make him a great receiver, hands and routes. And he has the hands already. Dude knows how to catch a football. Will he improve his routes? My guess is yes. It's easier to add a few routes than to improve your hands, something some of the other big/fast dudes needed to do, but couldn't.
Stats don't agree, lol. He can make a spectacular catch, yes, but his drop rate (10.3%) was terrible.
Would you happen to know AJ Browns drop rate?

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:22 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:12 pm
tresskid84 wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:17 pm
Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:47 pm
Well there are two things that will make him a great receiver, hands and routes. And he has the hands already. Dude knows how to catch a football. Will he improve his routes? My guess is yes. It's easier to add a few routes than to improve your hands, something some of the other big/fast dudes needed to do, but couldn't.
Stats don't agree, lol. He can make a spectacular catch, yes, but his drop rate (10.3%) was terrible.
Would you happen to know AJ Browns drop rate?
It was pretty good, like 6% I think? Average is 8%?

edit: According to PFF it's 5.6%
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Phaded » Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:25 pm

According to this, AJ Brown had a drop rate of approximately 4.1% with 8.6% being the average. (measures catchable passes)

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:40 pm

Though AJ Brown operated on easier, short to medium yardage throws.... I mean, not all catchable passes are the same, like not all chocolate is equally as good.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:59 pm

Phaded wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:34 pm
Why would you quote Michael Irvin? He is about as knowledgeable an analyst as your average joe on these boards.

One of the biggest problems with comparing Metcalf to Julio & Calvin is both Julio & Calvin had more catches in their junior year than Metcalf had his entire college career.

There are a lot of receivers who are more athletic but Evans was elite in college, both the tape AND the stats.

Again, big difference between an athlete and a receiver.

The sample size is far too small. He is a situational deep threat at best as it stands right now who will get taken away by NFL-caliber defenses without much of an issue until he develops.

He is exceedingly raw with limited playing experience and the statistics are concerning.

Someone early was asking about odds he is a stud.

I would put the odds of being a stud around 10%, a usable asset around 50% and a flat-out bust at 40%.

I understand the reason for the hype because "omg athleticism" but there are some massive red flags that are difficult to ignore.

You are pounding the table for a receiver who has a career high of 39 receptions in a season and 67 receptions in his career. Again, he is a very limited and situational deep threat. If you can point me to a first round receiver with that profile who had a lot of success, I'll listen.
I get it, You hate the player.... and/or think he has bust potential....Not my problem.....and I completely disagree.

I have provided my take, broken down film and even explained the breakdown of said film. No doubt many will only consider college game production or what the player can't do. Many others will make feeble digs to laugh off the group think. I am well aware of his college production given the system, the QB, and his injuries and I have addressed that. Where you are wrong IMO is you are looking for volumes of tape when it's obvious there is not a lot. Blaming that on Metcalf is a massive reach. There is plenty of tape to see his skill set whether its a one handed bomb catch, 3 or 4 distinct moves already to beat press, or utilization of his tremendous vertical and catch radius on back shoulder fades. If you choose not to study that it is not on me but I am 100% certain the scouts are looking at that. You can watch the ENTIRETY of college tape on Harry, Butler, and Evans as an example and you won't see the skill of some of Metcalf's plays.

My scouting of players both offense and defense has served me well going on close to 30 years now. I am extremely confident in how D.K. will used and the skills he possesses for an X WR at the NFL Level. Many of the skills are off the charts good. No intention of litigating that process over again.

As far as what Michael Irvin thinks, or you think of him isn't my concern anymore than why Calvin has worked with H. Butler on his press release from the line of scrimmage or the fact D.K. grew up with a father that actually played in the NFL which gives him a leg up from most. I could have just as easily quoted Gil Brandt who thinks D.K. Metcalf has a chance to be special but no matter as you may write him off as well.

I know exactly my views on the player and I have taken the time to share those views with this community. Continually, I share those freely despite several juvenile posts from members that are pretty much clueless.

Frankly, I could give a damn if anyone agrees or not as that's on the reader. I do get several PM's from serious posters that at least appreciate a take or ask questions on a take.

What I am saying is this player has a 95% of being selected in the first round of the NFL draft for obvious reasons. Maybe in the minds of many around here those professionals are idiots, not my problem. News flash, scouts look at way more than college production.

I am more of from the Bill Walsh school of scouting when I make a decision on a player. Many of you probably are not old enough to even remember as it relates to drops but..... Imagine how foolish many of you would look trying to explain how Jerry Rice was a bust because in his first 11 games as a pro he dropped 10 balls with only 26 receptions.

A look Back: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkt ... ookie-bust

Perhaps it's simply time to move on from this site. I have tried to look past the idiocy that comes from many, but if anyone actually goes back through this thread and many others, as a poster, I at least back up my convictions and do not attack first.

This is supposed to be a forum to express views but it is becoming apparent that a lot of the views are more in line with attacks which will only kill this website.

Some of us around here look forward to player takes, others seem to want to attack those that provide unique takes on players thinking they are actually contributing to the site instead of the sites downfall.

My top WR's are D.K. Metcalf, M. Brown, AJ Brown, K. Harmon. All of these players are different and bring unique skill sets. There are several other good ones that could develop into fantasy gold as well.

If you like D.K. Metcalf draft him if you get the chance. If you don't like him them by all means pass on him.
The clock is running and there are no timeouts

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby KingsKing » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:04 pm

Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:59 pm


Perhaps it's simply time to move on from this site
YES, please move on.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Phaded » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:05 pm

Who's attacking you in here?

I am simply presenting the counter-points to your arguments, yet you are the one so wrapped up in your own beliefs and opinions that you cannot even acknowledge that there is a counter argument.

You have beer goggles on for Metcalf, which is fine - it happens for a lot of people for a lot of players, but you are simply dismissing the counter arguments like they are not relevant.

I acknowledged there is a chance for him to be special if you bothered to read my posts. However, there is also a very real possibility that his skill set does not translate to the NFL and he flat out busts.

If you want to move on - no offense, but nobody is going to fight to keep you here. If you do not find the value in discussing items, then don't. However, don't act like you are innocent - I have seen you attack others on this forum. Quite frankly, you act like an entitled prick sometimes around these parts and that is probably why people give you a hard time. If you cannot take it then do not dish it or be a hypocrite about it.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby whodunnit » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:11 pm

Phaded wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:05 pm


You have beer goggles on for Metcalf, which is fine - it happens for a lot of people for a lot of players, but you are simply dismissing the counter arguments like they are not relevant.
for example, I'm guilty of doing this with Perriman back when he was drafted. I thought he would end up being the best WR in that class... whoops.
Watson Goff Trubisky Rosen *Luck
A.Jones Ingram Gurley Conner R.Jones Robinson
Hill Golladay Boykin Williams Renfrow Lamb Reagor Pittman Shenault Doctson Tr.Smith O.Johnson
Hockenson Hollister Knox Kmet Eifert
Allen Watt Armstead Beasley Barnett Collier
Judon Chubb Jones P.Smith Takitaki Whitehead
Savage Jackson Ward
PS: Newman, Jamie (QB) Borghi, Max (RB) Brown, Journey (RB) Wallace, Tylan (WR) Surratt, Sage (WR)


Mayfield Winston Jones Rudolph
Henry Gurley Jacobs Montgomery McKinnon Pollard Procise Burkhead
Hopkins Kupp Ridley AJG
Fant Brate James Reed
Heyward Houston Jordan
Watt Collins Mack Dupree Bucannon Bradham
Mathieu Diggs

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Phaded » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:15 pm

whodunnit wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:11 pm
Phaded wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:05 pm


You have beer goggles on for Metcalf, which is fine - it happens for a lot of people for a lot of players, but you are simply dismissing the counter arguments like they are not relevant.
for example, I'm guilty of doing this with Perriman back when he was drafted. I thought he would end up being the best WR in that class... whoops.
And I liked Corey Coleman as the best WR in 2016; I was banging the table for him. At least I got my WR2 right (Michael Thomas).

The point is - no player is bust proof, there is a reason why even first round WRs in the NFL have approximately a 50% bust rate; and they are paid professionals who analyze these guys for a living.

There is no perfect science. We all hit on players. We all miss on players.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:21 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:40 pm
Though AJ Brown operated on easier, short to medium yardage throws.... I mean, not all catchable passes are the same, like not all chocolate is equally as good.
Drops can go away, but catchable passes are catchable passes.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.


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